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Earth System and Climate: Introduction (ESC-I) Coordinators: Dr. Vinu Valsala and Dr. Supriyo Chakraborty Short introduction of instructor. • Vinu K. Valsala (Vinu; E-mail: [email protected]) • PhD in Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences • Research interests – Climate, Variability and Global warming – Oceanography – Numerical Ocean Modeling – Ocean Biogeochemistry Contents of ESC-Intro. course: • Earth System Science and Global Climate Change G • Global Energy Balance P • Global Carbon Cycle C • Recycling of Elements; C, N, O2, O3 depletion C • Global Biogeochemical Cycle- oceans C/B • Short-term Climate variability, Global Warming P/C/B Should be covered in 7-hours Text books: • Lee R. Kump, J. F. Kasting and R. G. Crane, 2010: The earth systems, Prentice-Hall Inc, pages-420 (*** Exams will be based on this; copies please make available in Library). • A. E. Gill, 1980, Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics, (Chapter-1 to 4), Int. Geo. Series, Vol.30. • Sarmiento G. L., and N. Gruber, 2007, Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics, Princeton. Univ. Press, pages530. • IPCC-AR4, 2007, Climate Change, The Physical Science Basis, Chapter-2, Technical Summary. PDF copy available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data Other materials: • Please prepare class notes by yourself. • We will provide you our ppt slides (in a common server) • No DICTATION of class notes (you are grown enough for this introductory course !) • Assignments/Quiz, – computer exercises of plotting the data, interpretations. Examinations and evaluation Type Mid-term exam Final-term Assignments/Quiz Time 2nd month of the class 4th month of the class Two/Three times Marks 30% Total 100% 50% 20% Let’s Start! Earth system and climate:- A space-time perspective galactic Planets, Moon, stars k-years years days Daily life Sunny /Rain hours minutes μ ν An year/ 1000 km Climate Weather: day-to-day states of the Atmosphere (environment) Climate: A long term average of the C states of the atmosphere. 10-7 100 102 103 105 107 ν μ meter km k-km 1010 galactic Terminologies to remember: Geometry of earth North pole Latitude; 90s~90n West Longitude; 180w~180e or 00 ~ 3600 East Equator = 00 South pole Some useful quantities to remember Shape of the earth: Oblate spheroid Image courtesy : Wikipedea Radius of the earth: 6371 Km (6378.14 - 6356.8) Mass of the earth: 5.977x1024 Kg Average density = 5517 kg/m3 Rotation speed = 0.729x10-4 rad/sec Average surface temperature = 288K, (150C) Regional characterizations: • • • • Tropics Sub-tropics Mid-latitude Polar Tropical climate Temperate Climate Polar Climate Weather and Climate. 01-Augst to 08-August temperatures over a Particular location Weather Weather represents day-to-day variations in our atmosphere Climate is a long term average of weather (100-years, 1000-years, 50years, 30 years) Major three themes that we address in this course is. • The earth system itself, as a combination of Biota, Atmosphere, Hydrosphere and Solid Earth. • What causes current global climate change • Climate is changing ever since the earth is formed 4.6 billion years ago. There are episodic ice-ages and interglacial warm periods. So, if the current climate is not warmed by humans, are we going back to ice-ages? Schematics of earth system Schematics showing interactions between various Components of Earth system. Evidences of global change on short time scales. Global Climate change. Global average observed surface temperature trend From IPCC Assessment Report 4 (AR-4), 2007 What causes in global temperature change in last 100 or 200 years? • Are they part of any natural change? • Are they induced by humans (Anthropogenic?) • Anthropogenic causes of climate change • Fossil fuel burning • Deforestation • Ozone layer depletion • What are the natural reasons for climate change? The Green house effect. Sun Earth GH-effect helps the surface Temperature to be warm at 150C = CO2 and Other GH-gases The status of present day green house gases and radiation budget. Concentration (ppm) Radiative forcing (w/m2) Gas 1765 1992 Current PreAnthr rate of industrial opoge increase (% nic per year) CO2 278 356 0.4 50 1.4 CH4 0.7 1.71 0.6 1.1 0.48 CFC-11 0.0 0.000268 0.0 0.0 0.07 N 2O 0.275 0.31 0.25 1.25 0.15 Sarmiento and Gruber, 2007, Ocean BGC Dyn., Radiative forcing per additional molecule relative to the radiative forcing due to one additional molecule of CO2. Gas Relative Forcing CO2 1 CH4 21 N2O 206 CFC-11 12,400 Addition of CH4 has more impact than addition of CO2. Addition of N2O has more impact than addition of CH4 Present day CO2; Keeling curve. © http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxideen.svg Atmospheric CO2 from 1700 to 2010 But ~50% of man-made CO2 is absorbed by oceans and land. 20 % 50 % 30 % Oceans sink ~30% of anthropogenic CO2 Terrestrial ecosystem absorbs ~ 20% of anthropogenic CO2. Annual mean CO2 sinks and sources by terrestrial biospheres (~2 PgC/yr) CarbonTracker data from ESRL, NOAA, USA. Annual mean CO2 sinks and sources by the ocean (~2PgC/yr) Shamil et al., 2012, Atm. Chm. Phy. Discussions 1015 Gram Carbon/year CO2 exchange between ocean & atmosphere, data developed at NIES, Japan. - 1.5x1015 gC/yr 1980 1990 2000 2010 Valsala et al., 2010, Tellus-B, Global warming or Global Cooling ? Schematic IPCC-AR4 report, 2007 Human impacts on famines and mass deaths…(Ethiopian famine) Normal 1984-85 Long term climate change: by Natural causes (observed- for 1 million years) Petit et al, 1999, Nature 700-k 500-k 300-k Kilo-years 100-k 0 Higher CO2 leads to Higher temperatures Lower CO2 leads to lower temperature But what causes variations in CO2 ? Earth system as a self-regulatory system. What are the natural causes of long term climate change? Milankovitch cycles (periodic) Precision 19-23 k-yrs Tilt 41-42 k-yrs Eccentricity 100-400 k-yrs What are other natural causes of radiation budget change? (aperiodic) = eradication of life; Are we driving next eradication? Millions of years ago Continental drifts 400 350 Devonian 300 Carboniferous 250 Permian 200 150 100 50 0 Climate Triassic 60 Paleocene 8 Jurassic 45 Eocene 6 Cretaceous 30 Tertiary Quaternary 15 0 Oligocene Miocene Pliocene Quaternary 4 2 1 Human evolution Miocene Pliocene Pleistocene