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PALMER, ANTARCTICA Long Term Ecological Research Annual Meeting Big Trout Ranch, MT 18-22 August, 2003 Outline of my talk: Purposes of this meeting Personnel & Introductions PAL science background Summary & Challenges Purposes of this meeting 1. Science Meeting for PAL PI’s, students, techs, guests – only opportunity to meet as a full group 2. Meet with Steering Committee (program guidance) 3. Planning meeting: field season, new initiatives 4. Complain, provoke praise… Our hosts: Donna Patterson Bill Fraser PORGYS PAL Principal Investigators: Hugh Ducklow* Doug Martinson Ray Smith+ Maria Vernet + Robin Ross + Langdon Quetin Bill Fraser Karen Baker Andy Clarke *Lead PI + Executive Committee microbes & biogeochemistry phys oceanography & modeling remote sensing and sea ice phytoplankton & optics zooplankton & nekton “ “ seabirds information management & outreach benthic & water column ecology PAL Steering Committee: John Hobbie* Bruce Hayden* Jim Reichman+ Tom Fisher * Andy Clarke David Ainley MBL Woods Hole, ARC Univ VA, VCR NCEAS, UCSB Horn Point Lab, MD BAS & Rothera HT Harvey; Ross Sea * Sent regrets + no response Students, Techs and Guests: Chris Carillo, (S), G Heidi Geisz, T(S) Rich Iannuzzi, T Wendy Kozlowski, T Dan Martin, T Tim Newberger, T Stephanie Oakes, S Sharon Stammerjohn, S Colm Sweeny, G UCSB, (Smith) Polar Res Group (Fraser) “ “ SIO (Vernet) UCSB, (Ross/Quetin) “ (Sweeny) “ “ LDEO (Martinson) Princeton The central tenet of PAL is that the annual advance and retreat of sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal changes in the structure and function of the Antarctic marine ecosystem…We now recognize the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) as a premier example of a climatesensitive region experiencing major changes in species abundance and composition due to changes in range and distribution that are occurring in response to regional climate change manifested here primarily as a southern migration of principal climate characteristics (climate migration). In effect, the maritime system of the northern WAP is replacing the continental, polar system of the southern WAP along the peninsular climate gradient. This change is driven by regional warming, which is modulated by regional hydrography, sea ice processes and global teleconnections to lower latitude atmospheric variability…we seek to understand the full ecological implications of climate migration in the WAP, and uncover the mechanisms linking them through teleconnections to global climate variability. The central tenet of PAL is that the annual advance and retreat of sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal changes in the structure and function of the Antarctic marine ecosystem…We now recognize the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) as a premier example of a climatesensitive region experiencing major changes in species abundance and composition due to changes in range and distribution that are occurring in response to regional climate change manifested here primarily as a southern migration of principal climate characteristics (climate migration). In effect, the maritime system of the northern WAP is replacing the continental, polar system of the southern WAP along the peninsular climate gradient. This change is driven by regional warming, which is modulated by regional hydrography, sea ice processes and global teleconnections to lower latitude atmospheric variability…we seek to understand the full ecological implications of climate migration in the WAP, and uncover the mechanisms linking them through teleconnections to global climate variability. The central tenet of PAL is that the annual advance and retreat of sea ice is a major physical determinant of spatial and temporal changes in the structure and function of the Antarctic marine ecosystem…We now recognize the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) as a premier example of a climatesensitive region experiencing major changes in species abundance and composition due to changes in range and distribution that are occurring in response to regional climate change manifested here primarily as a southern migration of principal climate characteristics (climate migration). In effect, the maritime system of the northern WAP is replacing the continental, polar system of the southern WAP along the peninsular climate gradient. This change is driven by regional warming, which is modulated by regional hydrography, sea ice processes and global teleconnections to lower latitude atmospheric variability…we seek to understand the full ecological implications of climate migration in the WAP, and uncover the mechanisms linking them through teleconnections to global climate variability. What we know: Regional warming (+5C in winter; +2C annual) over past 5 decades Sea ice extent, duration declining These two highly correlated; mechanisms are beginning to be understood. Interannual variability in sea ice behavior Penguins declining locally (70% since 1975): but mechanisms and links to climate not clear…some factors may be terrestrial (e.g., snow). What we think: Some relationship between sea ice variability and plankton dynamics: High ice years High PP (eg, 1996) Low ice low PP (eg, 1999) But krill optimize on ‘average ice years’ ??? And no real highs, lows in the 1990s… Links between lower trophic levels and penguins also unclear Palmer temperature, 1975 - 2002 ! 0 degrees Celsius -1 1980s: Hi/Lo temps 1990s: Not regression r2 = 0.28 p < 0.02 -2 -3 -4 No data 1982, 87-89 Distance from trend: 1975-86: 1.13 1990-2002: 0.49 P < 0.001*** -5 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 Palmer annual mean ice extent, 1979 - 2000 160 regression r2 = 0.32 p < 0.01** 103 kilometers 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Distance from trend 1979-90: 23485 1991-2000: 7513 P < 0.01** 1980 1985 99% conf intervals 1990 Year 1995 2000 Palmer January sea ice, 1979 - 2001 140 regression r2 = 0.46 p = 0.01 103 kilometers 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 Palmer sea ice & temperature, 1979 - 2001 160 80 103 kilometers 140 79 81 120 100 95 91 92 94 97 93 84 96 990083 98 01 80 60 r2 = 0.75 p < 0.001*** -5 -4 90 -3 -2 degrees Celsius -1 85 0 Palmer Adelie population, 1973 - 2002 18000 Breeding pairs 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 Penguins and sea ice, 1979 - 2000 16000 Breeding Pairs 14000 85 8388 86 79 89 Relationship not improved with 1-5 year lags 91 92 90 93 95 94 12000 87 10000 96 97 98 8000 99 2000 6000 20 40 60 80 100 103 Kilometers 120 140 160 Primary Production and Ice extent 500 220 Palmer PP Grid PP Winter ice (previous) 200 180 300 160 200 140 100 0 1990 120 1992 1994 1996 1998 Calendar Year 2000 2002 100 2004 103 kilometers PP mgC m-2 yr-1 400 Grid PP (Jan) vs Winter Ice 1400 1200 r2 = 0.201 F = 1.84 p = 0.22 (ns) -2 mgC m d -1 1000 800 600 400 200 0 110 120 130 140 150 160 103 kilometers2 170 180 190 Krill recruitment: maximizing in average ice years Sedimentation and ice extent 3500 110 sedimentation ice extent 3000 100 mgC m-2 yr-1 90 2000 1500 80 1000 70 500 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Calendar Year 2000 2002 60 2004 103 kilometers2 2500 Summary and Challenges Science Issues: What is the relationship between sea ice variability and plankton dynamics? What is the relationship between plankton response to climate change and penguin breeding success? Infrastructure Issues: How do we move toward a strategy embracing advanced instrumentation – moorings, AUV’s, next generation GIS, remote obs etc? What about NEON? How do we maintain productivity and observations in the current limited funding structure? How do we enhance our profile in LTERNet? How do we replace (succeed) Ray? A database to support and enhance synthesis & outreach The APV at Palmer Station And moving right along… Palmer January temperature, 1975 - 2003 6 degrees Celsius 5 regression F = 1.58 n = 26 p > 0.05 4 3 Mean 2.50 ± 1.06 2 1 distances from mean 1975-90: 1.08 1991-2003: 0.44 p < 0.05* 0 -1 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000