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Climate Change Science
Tuesday 22 April 2008
Earth Day panel for
Sustainable Practice program
Dr. E.J. Zita
The Evergreen State College
[email protected]
http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita/meetings/08AprEarthDay/SustainablePanel
Zita and lawnmowers
Physicist and organic farmer
BA, Physics & Philosophy, Carleton College
Ph.D., Physics, UW-Madison
Earth lit by fossil fuels
Global warming - the debate now is
about impacts and options
Stern Review: climate impacts could cost up to 20% of GDP;
Curbing climate emissions could be achieved with an
investment of 1-3% of GDP.
Summer 2006 news:
Organizers of the annual Capital Lakefair Festival in Olympia, Wash.,
blamed heat for lagging attendance from last year.
"When in Olympia, Wash., do you see temperatures of 101 degrees?"
asked Teri Chmielewski, vice president of the fair. "People just don't
want to come out of their houses."
Record Cascade avalanche season 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/us/10avalanches.html
Global temperatures in 1970
Global temperatures: 1970-2007
Warmest years all in the last decade:
New records:
1) 2006
2) 2007
3) 2005
4) 1998
5) 2002
6) 2003
7) 2004
Despite the fact that we are currently in a
solar minimum and a cool La Niña …
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html
IPCC temperature projections for A1B
Next decade:
2020-2029
End of century:
2090-2099
Temperature increases in °C relative to the period 1980-1999
AR4 SPM1 Fig.6
T differences
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html
Temperatures in the past 1000 yrs
• t
Temperatures in the past six ice ages
• t
underwear
Greenhouse gases absorb and
re-radiate infrared radiation
Without greenhouse gases
such as water vapor and CO2,
Earth would have been too
cold to support life for billions
of years…
… but now we’ve got too
much of a good thing…
Atmospheric CO2 has recently risen far
above the historical peak of 280-300 ppm
Temperature and CO2 levels rise together
Land glaciers on all continents are melting rapidly;
This melt rate has accelerated in the past decade
Mountain pine beetle migrates faster
than Cascade lodgepole pine
Record fire seasons in 2005, 2006, 2007
Global warming exaggerates weather
patterns, drives extreme events
Warming makes hurricanes stronger
Power ~ velocity3
http://www.livescience.com/environment/ap_050731_hurricanes_stronger.html
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html
More droughts and floods, as the water
cycle accelerates in a warming world
Chehalis floods, Dec. 2007
A northbound Kayak on I-5
Jim Thode http://www.pbase.com/jimthode/image/89914178
Global warming disproportionately impacts those
living closer to the land, and those with fewer
resources for adaptation
Sea level rise: 1 m by 2100?
http://www.ci.olympia.wa.us/community/sustainability/Climate_Change/Climate_Concerns.htm
but Greenland melt is accelerating
Ice loss rate is over 40
cubic miles per year
(this has doubled in
the last decade)
Sea level rise 4-8 m
by 2100?
Feedback mechanisms accelerate warming
Ice-albedo feedback: melting → more solar energy absorption →
heating → more melting → more solar energy absorption . . .
Poles are warming faster
Ice-albedo feedback
Northwest passage is
opening
Arctic Ocean may be icefree before 2050
Tipping point ~ 500 ppm CO2
“Fingerprints” of anthropogenic warming
• Poles warm more than
lower latitudes
• Land warms more than
water
• Stratosphere cools while
troposphere warms
Evidence of anthropogenic interference
• Correlation: high CO2
since industrial
revolution
• Cause: Low C14/C12 (*)
in modern atmosphere:
injection of fossil carbon
• Effect: Failure to fall into
cyclic ice age after
recent interglacial
*
Connecting forcings with Temp changes
Humans emit over 7 billion tons of C/year
Carbon emissions must zero out
before concentrations can level out.
Goal: keep atmospheric CO2 levels
below the 500 ppm tipping point
Transportation and electricity
Rate of carbon emission vs. time
Pacala & Socolow (Princeton), “Stabilization Wedges”
Science 305, 968, 2004 Aug. 13
The Carbon and Climate Problem
The atmosphere as a bathtub, with current annual inputs and
outputs of carbon. The level is rising by about 4 billion tons
per year.
The Carbon and Climate Problem
We can prevent doubling of CO2 if we can
keep emissions flat for the next 50 years
Pacala & Socolow, Princeton
… and then work to reduce emissions in the
second half of the century (orange line)
Wedge Strategies currently available
Choose 10 wedges from among all 4 sectors
Energy options:
Electricity: Natural gas is twice as clean as coal
Nuclear fission? Fusion doesn’t work yet.
Hydrogen is a fossil fuel … unless electrolyzed with
WIND or solar power
Geothermal & OTEC – not much available
Transportation: Higher MPG – drive less –
Denser cities – mass transit – walk/bike/telecommute
Evergreen student research
Coming up next:
John Pumilio: MES research on reducing TESC’s carbon
footprint
Rob Cole: Human rights implications, carbon monitoring,
…
This Thursday 24 April at 4:00, LH 2
MES thesis presentation by
Andy Deffobis
Helping Tumwater Go Green
Image sources
Ice albedo feedback: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/feedback.stm
Fountain http://www.liveolympia.com/Portals/6/HeritageParkFountain.jpg
Warmest2005 http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html
Tincreases http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/
Orca http://wdfw.wa.gov/science/articles/pcb/index.html
Stern report http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/planetearthunderthreat/stern-report.jpg
Undies: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/berge/happyhour/20062007_michaelmas/Preuve%20du%20rechauffement.jpg
ForestFires: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20060708/a7459_1887.jpg
EconomistHeatIsOn: http://www.economist.com/Images/20060909/20060909issuecovUS400.jpg
Smokestacks: http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/bay_environment/blog/smokestacks.jpg
BearSUV: http://www.weedenco.com/welling/Global%20Warming.gif
BearsStranded: http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/02_1/polarbrsDM010207_468x762.jpg
GlacierRetreat: Athabasca Glacier, Canadian Rockies, was near the sign in 1890 and has since melted back
to its current location due to global
warming.http://www.answersingenesis.org/assets/images/articleImages/2006/09/global-warming-3.jpg
GWpredictions: http://www.ethicurean.com/wpcontent/uploads/2006/10/global_warming_predictions_map_2.jpg
GWbrokaw http://www.usnews.com/usnews/discovery/discovery-global_files/global_promo.jpg
Hurricane http://www.profindsearch.com/Img/Hurricanes_Global_Warming.jpg
Gwvacation http://trulyequal.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/fear-global-warming.jpg
NY_GW: New York City under a 3-5 meter rise in sea-level due to global warming
http://www.inhabitat.com/2007/11/21/ipcc-global-warming-is-real-and-we-must-act-now/
windfarm http://planetsave.com/files/2007/07/wind-farm.jpg
riced paddies http://www.britannica.com/eb/art-2007/Terraced-rice-paddies-Bali-Indonesia
cows http://www.rockinh.net/Stockman's.htm
green building http://www.archidose.org/Blog/culver1.jpg
natural gas logs http://www.thegrillstoreandmore.com/image/products/big-pics/523347b.jpg
biofuels environment.newscientist.com
Sources of CO2 emissions
Uncertain future
US needs to live more lightly
Follow California’s example