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What is the impact of global climate change on different biomes 1 2 A quick review of some of the causes of climate change Before that – what could be happening because of climate change? Most places will be warmer Some will get drier Some will be wetter Some biomes will change so much that the plants and animals will no longer be able to live there 3 What are the main causes Certain gases – known as greenhouses gases (GHGs) – being added to the atmosphere by man. GHGs trap the sun’s heat. Carbon dioxide is the main GHG, and it comes from burning fossil fuels to make electricity and to power cars, buses and aeroplanes. Carbon dioxide is also very necessary for plants in a process called photosynthesis. Plants do not eat food to help them grow. They make the stems and leaves and fruits themselves, with the help of sunlight, from water and carbon dioxide. So more CO2 is not an entirely bad thing for plants, provided that they are not kept short of water. 4 January temperature worldwide Which pole is pointing towards the sun? Who is having summer now? 5 July temperature worldwide Who is having summer now? 6 Impacts of climate change Temperature 2011-2030 Which climate zones will be the most affected by temperature change? Which climate zones will be the least affected by temperature change? 7 Impacts of climate change Temperature 2080-2099 Is the pattern still the same? What has changed 8 Annual Precipitation worldwide 9 About the models We know what has happened in the past. From that we can make a good guess about what is likely to happen in the future. These guesses about the future are called ‘models’. When you are making a model, you take what you to view as the most important ideas – e.g. if it was a model car, that might be the shape and the colour, but unless you wanted it to be a working model, you may not be too concerned about getting the engine quite right, nor have the dashboard style absolutely correct. Where as, if your model had opening doors or and opening bonnet, then perhaps you would have other ideas about what is important. In the same way, when meteorologists are modelling climate, they have different ideas about what to keep in and what can be left out. But lets look at the result of some these models: 10 11 12 Impacts of climate change Precipitation Think how much rain the blue places in Northern Europe get already – if they get another 100mm or more ,what effect will this have? Similarly the brown areas! 13 Now these are only very broad generalisations There will be local variations For example, in SE England, they are due to loose precipitation and they only have about 500mm now. Whereas in Wales and Scotland, they are likely to get more and they are already wet or very wet! 14 But in general The Arctic tundra will get warmer – temperature rise in these areas is already more marked than anywhere else on the planet. The rainfall is more mixed – some parts will be drier and some will be wetter. What effect do you thing this will have? Do you know what is already being affected? 15 Traditionally the Nenets of Northern Russia travel across the frozen Ob River in November and set up camp in the southern forests around Nadym. These days, though, this annual winter pilgrimage is delayed. Last year the Nenets, together with many thousands of reindeer, had to wait until late December when the ice was finally thick enough to cross. 16 Impacts of climate change on deciduous forest Acid Rain from coal-burning is another threat, as is global warming, which in particular may change rainfall patterns. It would appear that in most deciduous forest areas, climate change will bring more rain, higher temperatures, more CO2 in the atmosphere and a longer growing season. What effects do you imagine this would bring? Also as we found there are a variety of tree types in deciduous woodlands, some are more inclined to do well on the Northern edge, while others are quite happy on the Southern limits. So possibly the area that we think of as the limit to the deciduous forests would move north, as would the southern boundary. In addition the trees, that people in some areas thought of as the most common, might be happier further north and they could be replaced by other species altogether. 17 Impacts of climate change on Mediterranean climate and vegetation Look back at slides 6, 7 and 12 – what changes do you see? What is the Mediterranean climate like now? So what do you think it will be like along the Mediterranean in 50 years time? What climate do you think it is going to be similar to? What kind of plants and animals are going to be there? 18 Impacts of climate change on the desert Look back at slides 6, 7 and 12 – what changes do you see? What is the desert climate like now? So what do you think it will be like along the desert in 50 years time? Is there much change? Which of these 2 pictures will be the most common? (They are both of the Sahara). Why? 19 Impacts of climate change on the Savannah Look back at slides 6, 7 and 12 – what changes do you see? What is the Savannah climate like now? So what do you think it will be like along the Savannah in 50 years time? How do you think what you see growing/living there might change? Which picture? 20 Impacts of climate change on the rainforest Look back at slides 6, 7 and 12 – what changes do you see? What is the rainforest climate like now? So what do you think it will be like along the rainforest in 50 years time? Which picture do you think might be most common? Why do you think that? 21 In conclusion In general, What will happen to the temperature? If it is wet already, how is the weather likely to change? If it is dry already, how is the weather likely to change? Will any of the areas we have looked at have a chance of doing better than before? 22 Finally, one thing we have not mentioned Life is likely to get more unpredictable for all of us. The tropical storms that until now have only really affected areas closer to the equator, are likely to bring heavy rain and high winds closer to the poles, in temperate regions. So damage to biomes in more temperate areas will get more wind and flood damage that they are used to. As will the areas that are currently quite dry for most of the time. You will see items on the news over the coming decades showing places being flooded that were never expecting it. 23 Homework From what you have learnt today (and with more research if you fancy it), if climate change goes ahead as it seems it might, what are they saying about where you live? When you are drawing your pension, what will it be like if you are in the same place as you are now? 24