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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC Climate Change in the Heartland Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 [email protected] Heartland Regional Roundtable Nutrient Management for Water Protection in Highly Productive Systems of the Heartland Lied Center, Nebraska City January 27-28, 2010 Outline Observed global changes in carbon dioxide and temperature Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990 Forcing Factors in the Global Climate Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Increasing greenhouse gases increases heating of the Earth Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Global Mean Surface Temperature I II III IV http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Energy intensive Balanced fuel sources More environmentally friendly If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007 FI =fossil intensive IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers IPCC 2007 IPCC 2007 Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. IPCC 2007 IPCC 2007 Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations. Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Arctic Sea-Ice Decline Decline in Greenland Ice Mass Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Insured Losses from Weather-Related Catastrophes 1980-2005 Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Temperature rises in regions having thunderstorms likely to experience increased occurrence of lightning Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Findings of the US National Assessment Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase Climate change will stress water resources Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge Risks to human health will increase Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000 Adapted from Folland et al. [2001] Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009: 0 Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years 2009: 0 State-Wide Average Data Cedar Rapids Data Cedar Rapids Data Cooling Decade in a Century of Warming Probability of a cooling decade in a century of warming Probability distribution functions for decadal trends (kelvin/year) in globally averaged surface air temperature Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner, 2009: Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810, 2009 D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet State-Wide Average Data Des Moines Airport Data 2010 2009 Des Moines Airport Data Average 1976-2005: 3.2 days/yr 2010 2009 Des Moines Airport Data Caution: Not adjusted for possible urban influence Average 1976-2005: 3.2 days/yr 2010 2009 Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More freeze-thaw cycles (high) Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More water-logging of soils (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) More winter soil moisture recharge (medium) Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other Reduced wind speeds (high) Reduced solar radiation (medium) Increased tropospheric ozone (high) Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high) Phenological stages are shortened (high) Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high) Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high) Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports Successful Farming Jan 2010 Dan Looker For More Information Contact me directly: [email protected] Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/ North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/ Or just Google Eugene Takle