Download Lowest Cost Climate Fix

Something to chew on
Food could make or break our world
Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop
Executive Director, World Preservation Foundation
[email protected]
Lefkothea Pavlidis
Senior Scientist, World Preservation Foundation
[email protected]
Ecological Footprint
The earth now needs 1.5 years to generate what
we use in a year (WWF Living Planet Report, 2011)
Ecological Footprint
Food: the problem
and the solution
Planetary Boundaries
Already Exceeded:
Biodiversity loss
Climate change
Nitrogen cycle imbalance
(Copenhagen Resilience Centre)
Biodiversity Loss
NEAA, 2010
Biodiversity Loss
A "No Meat Diet" would have
the single greatest benefit,
preventing over 60 percent of
biodiversity loss. (NEAA, 2010)
Planetary Boundaries
Nitrogen
Nitrogen Pollution
•65% of N2O from
animal agriculture
•Reactive nitrogen a
strong polluter –
leads to dead zones
Vitousek (1994)
Planetary Boundaries
Climate Change
Climate Chaos
No need to model
• Hotter, drier droughts
• More evaporation
(4% more water vapour)
• More extreme weather
• 1 million climate
refugees
Livestock & Climate Change
30.6% of Australia’s greenhouse emissions
is from livestock production
CSIRO/Uni of Sydney Balancing Act, 2005
Climate Change
• BZE Land Use Plan
• Agriculture 41-54% of
Australian emissions
• Animal agriculture 3752% of Australian
emissions
Climate Change
• Animal agriculture
the greatest source
of
–
–
–
–
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Carbon monoxide
NMVOCs
Short term climate fix
Short lived climate forcers
• 3-4oC warming will happen, even if
CO2 emissions cease
• Warming can be <2oC by 2050 if
short-lived emissions are
reduced (UNEP & WMO, 2011).
Short Lived Climate Forcers
Black Carbon
GWP20 of BC : 1600
(International Council on Clean
Transportation, June 2009)
Methane (CH4)
GWP20 of CH4 : 72
(IPCC 4th Assessment Report Climate
Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis)
Ground Level Ozone (O3)
Warming: 20% of that of CO2
(Wallack and Ramanathan, Sep/Oct 2009)
Black Carbon
•
•
40% of Black Carbon – from pasture fires and bushfires.
90% of open fires deliberately lit
NASA 10-day Global Fire Map: 10-19 May 2012
Methane
Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions 2005
Other 0%
Energy and fossil fuel
production 4%
Waste 17%
Fugitive emissions from
solid fuels 12%
Energy and fossil fuel production
Fugitive emissions from solid fuels
Land Use Change and
Forestry 3%
Fugitive emissions from oil and gas
Industrial processes and solvents
Rice cultivation 10%
Fugitive emissions from oil
and gas 21%
Animal Agriculture
Rice cultivation
Land Use Change and Forestry
Waste
Industrial processes and
solvents 0%
Animal Agriculture 33%
Human caused Methane emissions
Other
Ground level Ozone
Ground level ozone warms
20% of CO2
O3 best controlled by
reducing methane
(Wallack and Ramanathan 2009), (Harvard University, the
Argonne National Laboratory, and EPA (USA), 2002)
Image Source: NASA - Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer
Short Lived Climate Forcers
Long term climate fix
Lowest Cost Climate Fix
Trees, grass & soil
not technology
Lowest Cost Climate Fix
• Netherlands EIA Mitigation report 2009
– Low meat diet – 50% saving
– Animal free (vegan) diet – 80% saving
• Retire all grazing lands and feed crops (30% of
land surface)
Lowest Cost Climate Fix
• 51% of Africa is high
rainfall savannah
(>780mm)
• Would return to forest if
burning stopped (Sankaran et
al, 2005)
Planetary Boundaries
Deforestation
Deforestation
- 13 million ha/year (24 ha/minute)
- >90% for agriculture (80% for pasture/feed crops)
- 25-30% of global GHGs
(UNFAO, 2006)
Deforestation in Brazil
• Brazil has 27% of global deforestation
• 65-70% for cattle ranching
• 5-10% for large scale crops (mostly
soy for feedlots)
Deforestation and Fire
MODIS fire map 08/19/2010 to 08/28/2010
MODIS fire map 11/17/2010 to 11/26/2010
Fire is used to retard
tree re-growth &
encourage pasture
growth
Land Degradation
“A substantial reduction of
[climate/environmental] impacts
would only be possible with a
substantial worldwide diet change,
away from animal products.”
UNEP 2010
Future Food
Crunch time
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population crisis
Climate crisis
Biodiversity crisis
Soil/nutrient crisis
Water crisis
Peak oil
Peak land
“The coming famine is a
planetary emergency.”
Crunch time
“The traditional cookbook is a hymnal
to an age of indulgence that is costing
us the earth.”
“..the western diet kills more than half
its consumers through heart disease,
cancer, stroke, and diabetes should be
sufficient warning of its inherent risks.”
“The twenty-first century diet will be
more healthful all round”
Population
Feeding 64 Billion
• 7 billion people
• 64 billion livestock each year
• Western diet – 2,000 animals, 100,000 eggs
eaten in a lifetime
• Livestock outweigh wildlife by 18:1
Feeding 64 billion
Water lost
6x more water to grow a
kilogram of protein from
animal sources
20x more water to grow
calories from beef than from
grain or potatoes
Water lost
Protein Lost
100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
40
30
30
25
20
13
10
(Smil, 2002)
5
0
Plant
protein
Beef proteinPork protein
• 75% - 95% of
protein is lost by
eating meat
• 70% is lost by eating
eggs
Chicken
protein
Egg protein Milk protein
Protein conversion efficiency (%)
Land lost
450
400
400
350
290
300
250
240
220
200
150
150
92
100
85
50
50
22
0
Soybeans
Rice
Legumes
Wheat
Maize
Milk
Edible Protein (kg/ha)
Eggs
Meat
(average)
Beef
• Beef protein
takes 200 times
more land than
plant protein
• Milk protein
takes 3 times
more land
(Lobell, 1981)
Feeding 64 Billion
Without livestock to feed, we would have a 50%
surplus of food (FAO, 2006)
Organic Farming
•
•
•
•
•
•
Organic yields match conventional
Organic yields greater in drought years
Organic builds soil organic matter - more sustainable
Organic 45% less energy
Organic 40% less greenhouse gases
Organic more profitable in USA
Health
“It is time to tell the truth. Family history
and genetic background do not cause this
illness. Genes load the gun, but lifestyle
pulls the trigger.”
“a switch to a diet free of meat and dairy
products will dramatically reduce … obesity,
cancer, heart disease and diabetes.”
Dr Caldwell Esselstyn
Vegan Nutrition
Vegan Nutrition
“…vegetarian diets are appropriate
for individuals during all stages of the
life cycle, including pregnancy,
lactation, infancy, childhood, and
adolescence, and for athletes.”
ADA, 2010
Future Food
“A substantial reduction of impacts would only be
possible with a substantial worldwide diet change, away
from animal products.”
UNEP 2010
Animal cruelty?
"Every age has its
massive moral blind
spots.
We might not see them,
but our children will."
- Bono
The end
www.WorldPreservationFoundation.org
References
ACF (2010). Land Clearing Versus Bushland Re-planting in Australia: Statements, statistics
and references Australian Conservation Foundation. Retrieved from:
http://www.acfonline.org.au/ articles/news.asp?news_id=356
ACLUMP (2009). Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management Practices Land Use
Summary Australia – October 2009. Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management
Program. Retrieved from:
http://adl.brs.gov.au/mapserv/landuse/index.cfm?fa=app.report&tab=report
Adams, P. (2009, Nov/Dec). From Dirt Farming to Green Farming. Organic Gardener, pp. 49-54
ANZECC (2001). Implications of Salinity for Biodiversity Conservation and Management
Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council. Retrieved from:
http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/biodiversity/pdfs/salinity_biodiversity.pdf
Brough, D.M. (2007). Salinity. State of the Environment Queensland 2007. Retrieved from:
http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/register/p02256ap.pdf
DAFF (2009). Meat, Wool and Dairy. Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.
Retrieved from: http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/meat-wool-dairy
References
Deo, R. C., Syktus, J. S., McAlpine, C. A., and Wong, K.K. (2009B). The simulated impact of
land cover change on climate extremes in eastern Australia. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM
Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009. Retrieved from:
http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/F5/deo.pdf
DERM (2009). Land cover change in Queensland 2007–08: a Statewide Landcover and Trees
Study (SLATS) Report, Oct, 2009. Queensland Department of Environment and Resources
Management. Retrieved from:
http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/slats/pdf/slats_report_and_regions_0708/slats_report07_08.pdf
DEWHA (2009) Assessment of Australia's Terrestrial Biodiversity 2008
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts 2009, Retrieved from:
http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/terrestrial-assessment/index.html
FAO (2006). Livestock’s Long Shadow (2006) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations.
FAO (2008). FAOSTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved
from: http://faostat.fao.org/
References
Gold, M., (2004). The Global Benefits of Eating Less Meat. New Delhi: Navodanya in
collaboration with Compassion in World Farming Trust
McAlpine, C. A., Syktus, J., Deo, R. C., Ryan, J. G., McKeon, G. M., McGowan, H. A. and Phinn,
S. R. (2009A). A continent under stress: interactions, feedbacks and risks associated with
Impact of Modified Land Cover on Australia’s Climate, Global Change Biology (in press).
McAlpine, C.A., Etter, B., Fearnside, P.M. and Laurance, W.F. (2009B). Increasing world
consumption of beef as a driver of regional and global change: A call for policy action based
on Evidence from Queensland (Australia), Colombia and Brazil. Global Change Biology (in
press).
McKeon, G.M., Hall, W.B., Henry, W.K., Stone, G.S., Watson, I.W. (2004). Pasture Degradation
and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History. Queensland Department of
Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, Brisbane.
NRM (2010). Caring for our Country Business Plan 2010-11, Commonwealth of Australia
Natural Resources Management. Retrieved from: http://www.nrm.gov.au/business-plan/1011/index.html
References
UNEP (2010). Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Consumption and Production: Priority
Products and Materials. United Nations Environmental Programme. Retrieved from:
http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/documents/pdf/PriorityProductsAndMaterials_Report_Ful
l.pdf
WHO (2002). Human Vitamin and Mineral Requirements. World Health Organization Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from:
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y2809e/y2809e02.pdf
WWF (2008). Living Planet Report. World Wildlife Fund. Retrieved from:
http://www.wwf.org.au/publications/livingplanetreport2008/
Substantial Reduction of livestock dramatically improves:
Food and Water Security
Benefits
Free up grain crops for human consumption, not
animal
Currently in the world we grow enough edible grain to provide 50%
more than is required to feed every person in the world. (UNFAO,
Sustainable plant-based farming rather than
slash & burn techniques
Encourage diversification and intensification of crop yields, also
providing increase in average income. (Eg: avg income increased
Tropical monsoon rainfall increase with less
brown clouds
Weather patterns and rainfall will stabilise.
Environmental Preservation
Benefits
Environmental impact reduced
Decrease in biodiversity loss, land degradation, soil salinity,
deforestation, cleaner water systems etc. (Bisshop et al 2010)
60% Biodiv loss [MSA = mean species abundance] reduction
through No-meat diet option (NEAA, 2010)
Health Security
Benefits
Health care costs slashed
Adoption of the plant-based diet is associated with lower or no
occurrences of diabetes, heart disease, cancers, obesity.
2006)
by 20% in Madagascar (USAID, 2010))
(American Dietetic Association Position Papers)
Health improvements
Less air pollution means healthier lungs and more plant foods
consumed along with much less animal products consumed
means healthier people. (The UN's World Health Organisation
recommends to eat foods mostly of plant origin for optimal health)
Substantial Reduction of livestock dramatically improves:
Climate Security
Benefits
Black carbon reduced
Slow down the rate of ice melting and help cool the planet. An estimated
40-60% of the BC particles in West Antarctica could be prevented
through ending biomass burning for livestock grazing.
Methane enteric emissions reduced
Rapidly cool the planet directly through less methane emissions and
indirectly through less Trop. Ozone created from atmospheric
methane.
Cool the planet and also less manure finding its way into our waterways.
Nitrous Oxide emissions reduced
(Currently 65% of global anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions are from livestock
sector. (UNFAO, 2006))
Deforestation reduced
Freeing up 70% of the agricultural land currently used for livestock farming
(UNFAO, 2006) will dramatically reduce rates of deforestation.
Soil Carbon increase naturally
In QLD over a 25 year period we could regain 100 Mt CO2-e per year to
regain the soil carbon previously lost due to livestock grazing (QLD Govt,
2009)
Reforestation occurs naturally
Regrowth of native vegetation, may take 10-20 years - provides a carbon
sink and also replenishes biodiversity.
Overall Greenhouse gases decreased
Organic
plant-based
produces
94% lessfrom
GHGs
than
traditional
If all non-veg
peoplediet
of the
world switched
eating
one
beef burger a
diet
which
includes
animal
A vegetarian
day western
to one soy
burger
a day
over an
entire products.
year = taking
632 billiondiet
avg
family
cars off 49%
the road
an entire
produces
less.for
(Foodwatch,
2008) year. (Khoo, H. H., 2010)
Abatement costs fall dramatically
Global transition to low-meat diet reduce climate change mitigation costs
by 50%. A no-meat diet reduce mitigation costs by 70%. An animal
free diet reduce costs by 80% (Stehfest, E., et al, 2009)
Livestock & Climate Change
Meat and dairy contributes 18% of GHG
UNFAO Livestock’s Long Shadow, 2006
Livestock and their byproducts account for at least
51% of annual worldwide GHG emissions.
WorldWatch Magazine Livestock and Climate Change, 2009
30.6% of Australia’s greenhouse emissions in the 1990’s
came from livestock production
CSIRO/Uni of Sydney Balancing Act, 2005
Future Climate
• 4-60C hotter – “beyond dangerous” (PTRS)
• Last time as much CO2, methane 15M years ago
– 60C warmer
– Sea level 50m higher
Lowest Cost Climate Fix
Lowest cost climate fix = vegan diet
Deforestation and Fire
Global Open Fires
• Open fire emits 7.34 Gt CO2-e
/year (24% of global fossil fuel
emissions) (Carbon Project 2010)
• 80-90% of fires are deliberately lit
(Lauke & Erb 2009)
• Anthropogenic fires release ~6
Gt CO2-e (~15% of global
emissions) (van der Werf et al 2009)
(van der Werf et al 2010)
Vegan Climate Benefits
• Deforestation (25% of global emissions) reduced
>60%
• Biodiversity loss, extinctions reduce >60%
• Nitrogen pollution, dead ocean zones – greatest
source
• Soil degradation, salinity, loss
• 18% - 52% of greenhouse emissions reduced
• Open fires (15% of global emissions) would sharply
reduce
• Largest source of short lived climate forcers
Crunch Time
Agricultural land needed by 2050
Livestock and food security
FAOstat