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Something to chew on Food could make or break our world Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop Executive Director, World Preservation Foundation [email protected] Lefkothea Pavlidis Senior Scientist, World Preservation Foundation [email protected] Ecological Footprint The earth now needs 1.5 years to generate what we use in a year (WWF Living Planet Report, 2011) Ecological Footprint Food: the problem and the solution Planetary Boundaries Already Exceeded: Biodiversity loss Climate change Nitrogen cycle imbalance (Copenhagen Resilience Centre) Biodiversity Loss NEAA, 2010 Biodiversity Loss A "No Meat Diet" would have the single greatest benefit, preventing over 60 percent of biodiversity loss. (NEAA, 2010) Planetary Boundaries Nitrogen Nitrogen Pollution •65% of N2O from animal agriculture •Reactive nitrogen a strong polluter – leads to dead zones Vitousek (1994) Planetary Boundaries Climate Change Climate Chaos No need to model • Hotter, drier droughts • More evaporation (4% more water vapour) • More extreme weather • 1 million climate refugees Livestock & Climate Change 30.6% of Australia’s greenhouse emissions is from livestock production CSIRO/Uni of Sydney Balancing Act, 2005 Climate Change • BZE Land Use Plan • Agriculture 41-54% of Australian emissions • Animal agriculture 3752% of Australian emissions Climate Change • Animal agriculture the greatest source of – – – – Methane Nitrous oxide Carbon monoxide NMVOCs Short term climate fix Short lived climate forcers • 3-4oC warming will happen, even if CO2 emissions cease • Warming can be <2oC by 2050 if short-lived emissions are reduced (UNEP & WMO, 2011). Short Lived Climate Forcers Black Carbon GWP20 of BC : 1600 (International Council on Clean Transportation, June 2009) Methane (CH4) GWP20 of CH4 : 72 (IPCC 4th Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis) Ground Level Ozone (O3) Warming: 20% of that of CO2 (Wallack and Ramanathan, Sep/Oct 2009) Black Carbon • • 40% of Black Carbon – from pasture fires and bushfires. 90% of open fires deliberately lit NASA 10-day Global Fire Map: 10-19 May 2012 Methane Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions 2005 Other 0% Energy and fossil fuel production 4% Waste 17% Fugitive emissions from solid fuels 12% Energy and fossil fuel production Fugitive emissions from solid fuels Land Use Change and Forestry 3% Fugitive emissions from oil and gas Industrial processes and solvents Rice cultivation 10% Fugitive emissions from oil and gas 21% Animal Agriculture Rice cultivation Land Use Change and Forestry Waste Industrial processes and solvents 0% Animal Agriculture 33% Human caused Methane emissions Other Ground level Ozone Ground level ozone warms 20% of CO2 O3 best controlled by reducing methane (Wallack and Ramanathan 2009), (Harvard University, the Argonne National Laboratory, and EPA (USA), 2002) Image Source: NASA - Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Short Lived Climate Forcers Long term climate fix Lowest Cost Climate Fix Trees, grass & soil not technology Lowest Cost Climate Fix • Netherlands EIA Mitigation report 2009 – Low meat diet – 50% saving – Animal free (vegan) diet – 80% saving • Retire all grazing lands and feed crops (30% of land surface) Lowest Cost Climate Fix • 51% of Africa is high rainfall savannah (>780mm) • Would return to forest if burning stopped (Sankaran et al, 2005) Planetary Boundaries Deforestation Deforestation - 13 million ha/year (24 ha/minute) - >90% for agriculture (80% for pasture/feed crops) - 25-30% of global GHGs (UNFAO, 2006) Deforestation in Brazil • Brazil has 27% of global deforestation • 65-70% for cattle ranching • 5-10% for large scale crops (mostly soy for feedlots) Deforestation and Fire MODIS fire map 08/19/2010 to 08/28/2010 MODIS fire map 11/17/2010 to 11/26/2010 Fire is used to retard tree re-growth & encourage pasture growth Land Degradation “A substantial reduction of [climate/environmental] impacts would only be possible with a substantial worldwide diet change, away from animal products.” UNEP 2010 Future Food Crunch time • • • • • • • Population crisis Climate crisis Biodiversity crisis Soil/nutrient crisis Water crisis Peak oil Peak land “The coming famine is a planetary emergency.” Crunch time “The traditional cookbook is a hymnal to an age of indulgence that is costing us the earth.” “..the western diet kills more than half its consumers through heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes should be sufficient warning of its inherent risks.” “The twenty-first century diet will be more healthful all round” Population Feeding 64 Billion • 7 billion people • 64 billion livestock each year • Western diet – 2,000 animals, 100,000 eggs eaten in a lifetime • Livestock outweigh wildlife by 18:1 Feeding 64 billion Water lost 6x more water to grow a kilogram of protein from animal sources 20x more water to grow calories from beef than from grain or potatoes Water lost Protein Lost 100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 40 30 30 25 20 13 10 (Smil, 2002) 5 0 Plant protein Beef proteinPork protein • 75% - 95% of protein is lost by eating meat • 70% is lost by eating eggs Chicken protein Egg protein Milk protein Protein conversion efficiency (%) Land lost 450 400 400 350 290 300 250 240 220 200 150 150 92 100 85 50 50 22 0 Soybeans Rice Legumes Wheat Maize Milk Edible Protein (kg/ha) Eggs Meat (average) Beef • Beef protein takes 200 times more land than plant protein • Milk protein takes 3 times more land (Lobell, 1981) Feeding 64 Billion Without livestock to feed, we would have a 50% surplus of food (FAO, 2006) Organic Farming • • • • • • Organic yields match conventional Organic yields greater in drought years Organic builds soil organic matter - more sustainable Organic 45% less energy Organic 40% less greenhouse gases Organic more profitable in USA Health “It is time to tell the truth. Family history and genetic background do not cause this illness. Genes load the gun, but lifestyle pulls the trigger.” “a switch to a diet free of meat and dairy products will dramatically reduce … obesity, cancer, heart disease and diabetes.” Dr Caldwell Esselstyn Vegan Nutrition Vegan Nutrition “…vegetarian diets are appropriate for individuals during all stages of the life cycle, including pregnancy, lactation, infancy, childhood, and adolescence, and for athletes.” ADA, 2010 Future Food “A substantial reduction of impacts would only be possible with a substantial worldwide diet change, away from animal products.” UNEP 2010 Animal cruelty? "Every age has its massive moral blind spots. We might not see them, but our children will." - Bono The end www.WorldPreservationFoundation.org References ACF (2010). Land Clearing Versus Bushland Re-planting in Australia: Statements, statistics and references Australian Conservation Foundation. Retrieved from: http://www.acfonline.org.au/ articles/news.asp?news_id=356 ACLUMP (2009). Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management Practices Land Use Summary Australia – October 2009. Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management Program. Retrieved from: http://adl.brs.gov.au/mapserv/landuse/index.cfm?fa=app.report&tab=report Adams, P. (2009, Nov/Dec). From Dirt Farming to Green Farming. Organic Gardener, pp. 49-54 ANZECC (2001). Implications of Salinity for Biodiversity Conservation and Management Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council. Retrieved from: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/biodiversity/pdfs/salinity_biodiversity.pdf Brough, D.M. (2007). Salinity. State of the Environment Queensland 2007. Retrieved from: http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/register/p02256ap.pdf DAFF (2009). Meat, Wool and Dairy. Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Retrieved from: http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/meat-wool-dairy References Deo, R. C., Syktus, J. S., McAlpine, C. A., and Wong, K.K. (2009B). The simulated impact of land cover change on climate extremes in eastern Australia. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009. Retrieved from: http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/F5/deo.pdf DERM (2009). Land cover change in Queensland 2007–08: a Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (SLATS) Report, Oct, 2009. Queensland Department of Environment and Resources Management. Retrieved from: http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/slats/pdf/slats_report_and_regions_0708/slats_report07_08.pdf DEWHA (2009) Assessment of Australia's Terrestrial Biodiversity 2008 Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts 2009, Retrieved from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/terrestrial-assessment/index.html FAO (2006). Livestock’s Long Shadow (2006) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO (2008). FAOSTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from: http://faostat.fao.org/ References Gold, M., (2004). The Global Benefits of Eating Less Meat. New Delhi: Navodanya in collaboration with Compassion in World Farming Trust McAlpine, C. A., Syktus, J., Deo, R. C., Ryan, J. G., McKeon, G. M., McGowan, H. A. and Phinn, S. R. (2009A). A continent under stress: interactions, feedbacks and risks associated with Impact of Modified Land Cover on Australia’s Climate, Global Change Biology (in press). McAlpine, C.A., Etter, B., Fearnside, P.M. and Laurance, W.F. (2009B). Increasing world consumption of beef as a driver of regional and global change: A call for policy action based on Evidence from Queensland (Australia), Colombia and Brazil. Global Change Biology (in press). McKeon, G.M., Hall, W.B., Henry, W.K., Stone, G.S., Watson, I.W. (2004). Pasture Degradation and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History. Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, Brisbane. NRM (2010). Caring for our Country Business Plan 2010-11, Commonwealth of Australia Natural Resources Management. Retrieved from: http://www.nrm.gov.au/business-plan/1011/index.html References UNEP (2010). Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Consumption and Production: Priority Products and Materials. United Nations Environmental Programme. Retrieved from: http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/documents/pdf/PriorityProductsAndMaterials_Report_Ful l.pdf WHO (2002). Human Vitamin and Mineral Requirements. World Health Organization Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/004/y2809e/y2809e02.pdf WWF (2008). Living Planet Report. World Wildlife Fund. Retrieved from: http://www.wwf.org.au/publications/livingplanetreport2008/ Substantial Reduction of livestock dramatically improves: Food and Water Security Benefits Free up grain crops for human consumption, not animal Currently in the world we grow enough edible grain to provide 50% more than is required to feed every person in the world. (UNFAO, Sustainable plant-based farming rather than slash & burn techniques Encourage diversification and intensification of crop yields, also providing increase in average income. (Eg: avg income increased Tropical monsoon rainfall increase with less brown clouds Weather patterns and rainfall will stabilise. Environmental Preservation Benefits Environmental impact reduced Decrease in biodiversity loss, land degradation, soil salinity, deforestation, cleaner water systems etc. (Bisshop et al 2010) 60% Biodiv loss [MSA = mean species abundance] reduction through No-meat diet option (NEAA, 2010) Health Security Benefits Health care costs slashed Adoption of the plant-based diet is associated with lower or no occurrences of diabetes, heart disease, cancers, obesity. 2006) by 20% in Madagascar (USAID, 2010)) (American Dietetic Association Position Papers) Health improvements Less air pollution means healthier lungs and more plant foods consumed along with much less animal products consumed means healthier people. (The UN's World Health Organisation recommends to eat foods mostly of plant origin for optimal health) Substantial Reduction of livestock dramatically improves: Climate Security Benefits Black carbon reduced Slow down the rate of ice melting and help cool the planet. An estimated 40-60% of the BC particles in West Antarctica could be prevented through ending biomass burning for livestock grazing. Methane enteric emissions reduced Rapidly cool the planet directly through less methane emissions and indirectly through less Trop. Ozone created from atmospheric methane. Cool the planet and also less manure finding its way into our waterways. Nitrous Oxide emissions reduced (Currently 65% of global anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions are from livestock sector. (UNFAO, 2006)) Deforestation reduced Freeing up 70% of the agricultural land currently used for livestock farming (UNFAO, 2006) will dramatically reduce rates of deforestation. Soil Carbon increase naturally In QLD over a 25 year period we could regain 100 Mt CO2-e per year to regain the soil carbon previously lost due to livestock grazing (QLD Govt, 2009) Reforestation occurs naturally Regrowth of native vegetation, may take 10-20 years - provides a carbon sink and also replenishes biodiversity. Overall Greenhouse gases decreased Organic plant-based produces 94% lessfrom GHGs than traditional If all non-veg peoplediet of the world switched eating one beef burger a diet which includes animal A vegetarian day western to one soy burger a day over an entire products. year = taking 632 billiondiet avg family cars off 49% the road an entire produces less.for (Foodwatch, 2008) year. (Khoo, H. H., 2010) Abatement costs fall dramatically Global transition to low-meat diet reduce climate change mitigation costs by 50%. A no-meat diet reduce mitigation costs by 70%. An animal free diet reduce costs by 80% (Stehfest, E., et al, 2009) Livestock & Climate Change Meat and dairy contributes 18% of GHG UNFAO Livestock’s Long Shadow, 2006 Livestock and their byproducts account for at least 51% of annual worldwide GHG emissions. WorldWatch Magazine Livestock and Climate Change, 2009 30.6% of Australia’s greenhouse emissions in the 1990’s came from livestock production CSIRO/Uni of Sydney Balancing Act, 2005 Future Climate • 4-60C hotter – “beyond dangerous” (PTRS) • Last time as much CO2, methane 15M years ago – 60C warmer – Sea level 50m higher Lowest Cost Climate Fix Lowest cost climate fix = vegan diet Deforestation and Fire Global Open Fires • Open fire emits 7.34 Gt CO2-e /year (24% of global fossil fuel emissions) (Carbon Project 2010) • 80-90% of fires are deliberately lit (Lauke & Erb 2009) • Anthropogenic fires release ~6 Gt CO2-e (~15% of global emissions) (van der Werf et al 2009) (van der Werf et al 2010) Vegan Climate Benefits • Deforestation (25% of global emissions) reduced >60% • Biodiversity loss, extinctions reduce >60% • Nitrogen pollution, dead ocean zones – greatest source • Soil degradation, salinity, loss • 18% - 52% of greenhouse emissions reduced • Open fires (15% of global emissions) would sharply reduce • Largest source of short lived climate forcers Crunch Time Agricultural land needed by 2050 Livestock and food security FAOstat