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Global Challenges towards a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through Sustainable Development (SD)
Introduction
Nov. 8, 2006
UNFCCC COP12/MOP2
UNON, Nairobi
Shuzo Nishioka
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan
Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0
oC)
5.0
5
GHG-475ppm
年
Year
GHG-500ppm
GHG-550ppm
GHG-650ppm
Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric
GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature.
(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
0
年
Year
BaU
650
550
500
50% reduction
2050
0.0
GHG
475ppm
2040
GHG: Greenhouse gases
10
2030
1.0
15
2020
GHG475ppm
BaU
2010
475
20
2000
2.0
Global GHG emissions
1990
650
550
500
3.0
GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq)
BaU
Temperature raise
(global average)
温室効果ガス排出量 (二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
4.0
25
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
Global mean temperature increase
気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)
pre-industrial level)
(oC above the
“Low-carbon societies are necessary to
avoid dangerous climate change.”
Low Carbon Japan: 2050
脱温暖化
2050
NIES ｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ （２００４－２００８） 60 researchers
Global Environmental Research Programme
http://2050.nies.go.jp
Deep cut of GHG into 20-40% by 2050
What will be the image of the LC society?
How to attain the goal?
How to change energy demand /supply structure?
Current per capita
CO2 emissions
and Target
6
$200/t-C scenario
US
5
US: delay for tech development,
global warming business
Canada
4
EU: Initiatives toward LCS
Japan: Need long-term vision
UK Germany
3
2
France
METI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
Japan 2050
scenario
World
China
2050
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
2040
IB1
India
0
Target for
Low Carbon Society
IA2
2030
1
1970
CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)
7
Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005
The first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research Project
“Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyo
54 participants from 19 countries and 6 international organizations;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada
A second workshop will be held in UK, June 2007
Toward a Low-Carbon Society,
we need to
– take actions that are compatible with the principles of
sustainable development, ensuring that the development
needs of all groups within society are met;
– make an equitable contribution towards the global effort to
stabilise atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous
climate change through deep cuts in global emissions;
– demonstrate high levels of energy efficiency, use of lowcarbon
– energy sources and production technologies, and
sustainable land use practices;
– adopt patterns of consumption and behaviour that are
consistent with low levels of GHG emissions.
Programme:
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options
Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
National and Global Cooperation to Achieve LCS through SD
David Warrilow (Defra, UK)
Panel discussion :
SD-PAMs
Stanford Mwakasonda (University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Renewable Energy
Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)
Technology RD&D
Comment
Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)
Robert Dixon (IEA)
Open Discussion
Jonathan Pershing (WRI)