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Transcript
• How measure climate change in Local condition?
• How should be prepared the communities for face to
Climate Change?
• Local climate observation integrated to development
• Weaknesses community perception of climate
change, social pressures and migration like to
indirect effect to climate change.
• Local practices community perspectives and local
knowledge climate risk.
• Conclusions
How measure climate change in Local condition?
•
•
•
•
Nature observation for understand climate change for
communities indigenes.
Understand relationship between climate, productive
systems and ecosystems.
Historical memory about climate event and their impacts
in livelihood.
Change in floristic composition and wildlife.
BIOINDICATOR
Bioindicadores
• If Thola (Parastrephia lepidophilla)
flowers early it tells first seeding
begin; if it does not Flower The
community don’t have first seeding.
• If it has fruit between September and
October, They have good production.
• If fruit not finish their mature They
have frozen or/and drought.
• Kariwa When flower between in
October – November is meaning
that is time a seeding, If it early
flower there are seeding early too.
• When flower abundance and
yellow is time of seeding for
Good production.
Wild animals observations
Fox
• When fox finish their howl is advertence
there are not good production.
• But if it not finish their howl it is stopped
by stun between their howl adverting the
community will have a good production.
• When fox will make their burrow in low
land near the lake This meaning that not
has a lot of rainfall.
• When this birth make a nestle in high
place meaning which a lot of rainfall;
But if make in lowland is sure has
drought .
• When has eggs put in high point and
more big and uniform meaning which
better potatoes production; but when it
has small point and in less density there
will less production.
Leke leke
Pilot experience in two regions of Bolivia like
and select by CBA projects.
• Two regions are mountains areas.
• Both regions has different particularities in water
supply.
• Theses regions has different responses of
communities.
• They have high property level.
• Also theses regions have problems under actual
condition and additional impact to climate
changes which increasing their more properly
Climate change
Landscape
/Ecosystems
Forest /brush
Natural
grassland
Livelihoods
Productive
systems
Food security
Agriculture
Water Resource
Familiar
incoming
Livestoock
Soil
Energy
Market
Education
Others
Biodiversity
Health
Cultura
Climate variability
Vulnerability and perceptions to climate change by
communities
a) Productive systems are highly dependent on climatic
conditions.
b) Lack of access to technology
c) Reliant on subsistence agricultural production.
d) Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability has immediate
impact on agriculture activities.
e) To long term reduce opportunities in Economic Active
Population and these leave their communities.
12
10
IM -ENSO
8
EmergDesas
6
4
2
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
-2
1989
0
 Increased frequency and
intensity of extreme
events associated with
climate variability
ENSO Multivariate Index with number of
emergency declaration
 Floods, hailstorms, and
others
event
produce
serious road and settlement
infrastructure damage
Climate Geological
Enviroment , Fires, Social
EL NIÑO EVENT – SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE
7
8.00
6.00
4
4.00
1.36
2
2.10
2.23
2.00
2.27
0.00
0.96
1.16
2
1.85
1.43
1.14
1.5
1.13
1.01 1
1972 - 1973
1992 -1993
0.5
1997-1998
Average Surface Anomaly Temperature
Trimester.
0
Average anomaly
Proxy indicators – ecological, microclimatic
changes that are readily apparent to communities
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Family income
Technology access
Contribution of agricultural production to GDP
Retreating glaciers and reduction of streamflows.
Recurrent drought in micro-regions and disturbances in
in animals, plants, and ecosystems
f) Emergence of new pests and diseases in crops and
livestock.
g) Increasing ecosystem vulnerability – forest fires, etc.
Perspectives and Local Knowledge in Climate Risk
Assessment
• To assess climate change risk is not necessary only to
know the behavior of climatic parameters
• One must understand the relationship of the parameter
with livelihood and ecological variables that are
important to the community
• Social perceptions are evaluated in participative
meeting when all participant interchanges experiences –
a form of social research.
Food Insecurity related with extreme climate
events, temperature increase and others
Droughts
Hail storms
• Pest and Diseases in Crop
Frost
Gorgojo de los Andes
Tizón Tardío de la papa
Polilla de la papa
Competition for final destination
of food production
• Recurrent droughts in low lands
and unusual areas of Amazonia
• Changes in
configuration
ecosystem
 Lost of Biodiversity
 Forest degradation
NATIONAL
ADAPTATION
MECHANISM
(SECTORIAL)
TOP DOWN
PROCESS
PND
Good to living
COUNTIES PILOT
ADAPTATION
PROJECTS
CBA Project
Contributing to
Adaptation measure
implementation
Salud
BOTTON UP
PROCESS
CLIMATE CHANGE INCLUDED IN NATIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES POLICIES
REDUCTION OF GRENHOUSE GASES AND CARBON SECUESTRATION
 Programa de Certificación de reducción de emisiones, secuestro y
conservación.
 Programa Nacional de Secuestro de Carbono.
 Programa de Cambios de Matriz Energética y eficiencia energética
para la Reducción de emisiones de GEI.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Programa de prevención de desastres en sectores vulnerables.

Programa de adaptación de sistemas de subsistencia vulnerables.
Recursos Hídricos; recursos Energéticos; soberanía alimentaria.

Programas de Educación.
National Climate Change Adaptation Mechanism
Sectorial Programs
Food Security
Human Settlement
and risk Management
Health
Ecosystem
Scientific research
Education, Capacitation,
and public awareness
Strategic targests
Anthropological aspects
and ancient knowledge
Strategies
Prefecturas
Counties

Strategic liason

Legal Framework

Help sectorial iniciatives

Mainstreaming climate change
ONGs
Universitys
Adaptation measurements Implementación
Civil Society,
comunnities
organization
Cross cutting Programs
Cross cutting Programs
Water
Resources
ADAPTATION PROCESS
D
E
V
E
L
O
P
M
E
N
T
Progress measurement and
experiences learning
Local,Sectorial and National
Planning
Implementation
Disaster
Recuperation
Emergency
answers
Hazards
Protection and
evacuation
Desastre
DISASTER
Science
Methods
Policies and
decisions
Process
Community
Participation
POLICIES BUILDING
Strategies and Measurements Implementation
ADAPTACION
VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT
Fase I
Fase II
• BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE LIVILIHOOD
IMPACTS
 Vulnerability Assessment for extreme events impacts and climate change sensitive
diseases
 Integrate focus
 Early warning systems development
 Building Capacities
 Public awareness raising
 Develop adaptive capacity
 Maistreaming
 Increase adaptive capacity for long term
 Building structural scenarios
 Adjust policy and implmentation in national strategies.
 Development of concrete adaptation measures – intersectoral and multi-level
 Evaluate progress and learn from experience
 Technological Innovation
 Emphasize the relationship between the biosphere and the prosperous
development of society
Mainstreaming
Present and future
vulnerability identification
Proactive Behavior of
rural comunity
COMPORTAMIENTO DEL DENGUE CON
RESPECTO AL SEGUNDO FACTOR DEL INDICE
CLIMATICO - YACUIBA
DENGUE
Understand climate
trend for preparing
response
ESTANDARIZADOS
VALORES
SEGUNDO FACTOR
DEL INDICE
CLIMATICO , EL MAS
RELACIONADO CON
LA PRECIPITACION
SEMANAS EPIDEMIOLOGICAS
REZAGOS EN QUE LA
LLUVIA AFECTA EL
COMPORTAMIENTO
DEL DENGUE. APROX.
8 SEMANAS
CONCLUSIONES
1. Capitalizar el conocimientos ancestrales de las
comunidades, es muy importante.
2. Explicar a partir de la ciencia los fenómenos
observados en naturaleza.
3. Integrar a la toma de decisiones de la comunidad e
incidir en políticas públicas a partir de la experiencia
local.
4. Establecer un dialogo entre el saber local y los
resultados de la ciencia.
5. Todo integrado a la toma de decisiones podrá
garantizar la sostenibilidad