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Impact of Climate Change on Grenada’s Coastal Zones
Synopsis of presentation
Justification for conducting Vulnerability Assessment on Grenada’s Coastal Zones
Background information on Grenada, Carriacou and Petite Martinique
Methodology used
Problems and the way forward
Justification for conducting Vulnerability Assessment on Grenada’s Coastal Zones

The small size of the island and affinity to and dependence of the inhabitants on the
sea.

Growing coastal population and infrastructural development

The high cost associated with the construction of new coastal protection structures

To aid policy formulation and assist in structuring the coastal physical development
of the island to ameliorate SLR repercussions

To estimate and determine the biophysical impact of SLR on socio-economic sectors
and human population
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Tropic of Cancer
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Cuba
Turks & Caicos Is.
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The Bahamas
United States
Cayman Is.
Mexico
Jamaica (!
Kingston
Belize Belmopan
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Haiti Port-au-Prince Dominican Republic
San Juan
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Anguilla
Puerto Rico
Virgin Is. St. Kitts & Nevis
Antigua & Barbuda
Guadeloupe
Dominica
Guatemala
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San Salvador
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Caribbean Sea
Tegucigalpa
Martinique
St. Lucia
El Salvador
Barbados
Nicaragua
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Aruba
Netherlands Antilles
Managua
Grenada
Trinidad & Tobago
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San Jose
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Panama
Panama
Pacific Ocean
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Legend
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Cities
Rivers
Administrative Units
Lakes
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Robinson Projection
Central Meridian: -60.00
:
Central America
& Caribbean
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ArcGIS 8 Development Team
March 2000
Source: ESRI Data & Maps CD
Created in ArcGIS 8 using ArcMap
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50
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Honduras
Guatemala
View of Pink Gin Beach showing a section of La Source Hotel.
SHELL gas plant, Grand Mal Bay, located in close proximity to beach
Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment was conducted under component 9 of the
regional Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project (CPACC).
Results and findings were included in the first National Communication.
Main objective of CPACC is to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the
adverse impacts of climate change particularly sea level rise, in coastal and marine
areas through vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning and capacity building
linked to adaptation planning

Strengthen the regional capability for monitoring and analyzing climate and sea level
dynamics and trends, seeking to determine the immediate and potential impacts of
global climate change.

Identify areas particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and
sea level rise.

Develop an integrated management and planning framework for cost effective
response and adaptation to the impacts of climate change on coastal and marine
areas.
Methodology used by the CPACC Pilot Study was based on the UNEP V&A
methodology and utilized a staged approached, viz:
Stage One - Identification of problems and scope of analysis.
Stage Two - Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment.
Stage Three - Impact Assessment.
Stage Four - Autonomous and Planned Adaptation.
Grenada Screening Assessment Matrix
Biophysical
Impact
Human
Settlements
Water
Resources
Tourism
Recreation
!nfrastructure
Fishing
Ports
Historic/Cultural
Erosion
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
3
Inundation
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Eco-system
Loss
2
None
2
None
None
1
None
3
Salinization
2
2
3
None
3
3
3
1 = Major Impact; 2 = Significant Impact; 3 = Minor Impact
None
Vulnerability analysis focus on the Impact of sea level rise and storm surge
and flooding on the following sectors

Impact on socio-economic activities.

Impact on critical infrastructure.

Beach erosion and inundation.

Impact on water resources, including potential for saline intrusion of the water
table.

Impact on coastal ecosystems.
 Review of institutional arrangement for responding to sea-level rise.
Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
The scenarios used in the analysis were:
Sea Level Rise
SLR1 = 0.2 meters for 2020
SLR2 = 0.5 meters for 2050
SLR3 = 1 meter for 2100
100-year storm surge levels
SS1 = SSpx1.2 (assumes 20% increase)
SS2 = SSp (assumes no changes)
SS3 = SSpx0.8 (assumes 20% decrease)
SS2 should be applied to three years into the future
SS1 and SS3 should be applied for the year 2050 and 2100
Vertical movement
VM = 0 (assumes no vertical movement along the coast of Grenada)
These scenarios are consistent with the predictions for sea level rise in the
IPCC Second Assessment Report
Storm Surge/Flooding Impacts Associated with Hurricanes
HURRICANE STRENGTH
FLOODING
IMPACT
WIND SPEED (mph)
PRESSURE (mb)
STORM SURGE
Category 1
74 – 95
> 980
4 – 5 ft
Category 2
96 – 110
965 – 979
6 – 8 ft
3 ft [1]
Category 3
111 – 130
945 – 964
9 – 12 ft
5 ft
Category 4
131 – 155
920 – 944
12 – 18 ft
10 ft
Category 5
>155
< 920
> 18 ft
15 ft
Source: National Hurricane Center
SS1 (m)
SS2 (m)
SS3 (m)
Net storm
surge level (m)
Year
SLR (m)
Flood Impact (ft)
2020
0.20
-
1
-
1.2
3.94
2050-1
0.50
1.2
-
-
1.7
5.58
2050-2
0.50
-
1
-
1.5
4.92
2050-3
0.50
-
-
0.8
1.3
4.27
2100-1
1.00
1.2
-
-
2.2
7.22
2100-2
1.00
-
1
-
2
6.56
2100-3
1.00
-
-
0.8
1.8
5.91
Flooding Impacts under CPACC Scenarios for 12 ft. Historical Storm Surge (5 ft Flooding)
Year
SLR (m)
2020
0.20
-
1.52
-
1.72
5.64
2050-1
0.50
1.82
-
-
2.32
7.61
2050-2
0.50
-
1.52
-
2.02
6.63
2050-3
0.50
-
-
1.22
1.72
5.64
2100-1
1.00
1.82
-
-
2.82
9.25
2100-2
1.00
-
1.52
-
2.52
8.27
2100-3
1.00
-
-
1.22
2.22
7.28
Year
2020
2050
2100
SS1(m)
SS2 (m)
SS3 (m)
Net storm
surge level (m)
Potential Storm Surge Impact
3.94 – 5.64 ft
4.27 – 7.61 ft
5.91 - 9.25 ft
Flood Impact (ft)
THE CARTOGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE APPLICATION
Input
Contours
Build
0 and 25 f t
TIN
Create Contours 0.5m Contour
Interv als
Select & Convert
to Shapefile
Contours >
0 and < 2m
Clip
Study Area (Poly )
Select
Contours in
Study Area
Overlay
Contours of
island
Poly gons
0 to 1..5
Build
Polygons
Snapp ed
Poly lines
Clean: Intersect Closed Contours
& Pseudonodes in Study Area
Merge
Study Area
(Line)
Intersect
Land Use
Vulnerable
Land Use
Intersect
Land Cover
Vulnerable
Land Cover
Assign Data by Location
Buildings
Vulnerable
Buildings
The Vulnerability analysis was constrained by a number of factors
Availability Baseline Data
Bathymetry Data The unavailability of bathymetry data made it impossible to assess the
full impacts of either sea level rise, or storm surges. This data on wave dynamics and
wave energy was important to facilitate analysis of the erosion potential, and the runoff potential of the waves under the different scenarios. Its unavailability meant that the
analysis that was done was a static flooding and inundation analysis.
It also meant that the impacts of the various reefs and headlands that protect
Grenada’s coasts on wave action and energy were not taken into consideration
Contour Maps – The unavailability of contour maps below the 25 ft. contour
made it impossible to model any impacts within the 0 – 1 m range
Geo-referenced Cadastral Information – The unavailability of census or
cadastral information for households, location of coastal infrastructure and
levels for groundwater wells, in a format that could have been inputted into
the GIS models limited the ability to assess socio-economic impacts.
Unavailability of Relevant Models The technical team did not have many sea-level rise
models to work with. It therefore had to conduct most of its analyses from first
principles, relying on the technical capacities of the sectoral consultants and their
abilities to incorporate climate change considerations into their technical analyses.
Simulated beach erosion for Carriacou due to
sea level rise
Percentage total beach
loss
120
100
80
dL1
dL100
60
40
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sea level rise (cm)
90
100
110
Storm surge impact on coastal Zone
Stage Four involves an assessment of adaptation options, which are feasible .
Autonomous Adaptation refers to responses that will happen spontaneously
without policy intervention for example the moving inland of coastal wetlands.
Planned Adaptation refers to policy suggestions, which could be put in place as
a result of the outputs vulnerability studies, for example setbacks for buildings or
new building codes.
NEXT STEPS
Despite its limitations, this Pilot Study has demonstrated that Grenada is very
vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of climate change. It is important therefore
that measures be initiated immediately to begin the process of adaptation to climate
change.
Sensitization of Policy Makers and Key Stakeholders
It is important that the policy-makers and key stakeholders be sensitized to the
potential consequences of climate change at the earliest opportunity. This is necessary,
as the implementation of any response measures will require their approval and
support
Public Awareness and Education
It will facilitate their participation in the process of developing a national response
strategy; and
It will provide a supportive basis for the implementation of national policies and
measures initiated in response to the threat of climate change.
Development of an Adaptation Framework
The development of an Adaptation Framework, within the context of a National Climate
Change Policy Framework, is therefore a necessary first step
Capacity Building to Enhance future V&A Analyses
This will require a strengthening of the capacity of the current national technical team
in the short run and a broadening of the skill base to include other technical personnel
in the medium to long term. Such capacity building should include.

Training in the use of modeling techniques relevant to the respective sectors.

Training in the establishment and use of systematic monitoring and observation
processes to enhance data collection for their respective sectors.

Training in the assessment and analysis of climate change impacts, including the
analysis of climate variability to assess its implications for understanding the longerterm impacts of climate change
Technical and human resource needs
The immediate technical needs include:
Technical and human resource needs (Technical needs)

An identification of the available models that can be used to further enhance the
various components of the vulnerability and adaptation analysis.

An identification of the data needs required for the utilization of these models.

An identification and initiation of the systematic observation and monitoring processes
required for the collection of the required data on a systematic basis.

An identification of all relevant equipment required for the data collection and
analyses.

The establishment of an institutional framework for the management of the overall
Vulnerability and Adaptation process
Human resource needs (capacity building at two levels)
The capacity building needs for the members of the technical team include:
 Further training in the V&A methodologies that are relevant to their respective
sectors.
 Training in appropriate V&A modeling techniques relevant to their respective
sectors.
 Training in data collection and analysis techniques relevant to their respective
sectors.
The capacity building for the managerial and technical personnel in the affected
institutions include:

Understanding the causes and effects of climate change in general.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on their respective sectors,
the causes of the specific impacts and the options available for responding.

Training in techniques for monitoring and analysis of the impact of climate change
on their sectors, including data collection and modeling techniques.

Training in implementing options for responding to climate change, including
monitoring the impact of response measures that have been initiated.

Support for integrating climate change considerations into the day-to-day
management of their institutions and sectors.