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Climate Change in Hertfordshire John Rumble Sustainability Team Leader Forward Planning Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Global Warming Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Climate Change Scenarios Regional data on climate change • UK Climate Impacts Programme climate change scenarios www.ukcip.org.uk • Describes a range of variables: temperature, precipitation, sea level and climatic variability • Low emissions and high emissions scenarios • Up to 2100 (three time slices centred on 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Climate Change is Unavoidable Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Is Man to Blame? Source: Peter Stott, UKCIP02 Scientific Report Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 The Kyoto basket Six greenhouse gases & their GWPs GHG formula or abbreviation Name Global Warming Potential of each GHG relative to CO2 CO2 CH4 N2O Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide 1 21 310 HFCs PFCs SF6 Hydrofluorocarbons Perfluorocarbons Sulphur hexafluoride 140-11,700 6,500-9,200 23,900 Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Important Sources of GHGs Gas Important sources in the UK Carbon dioxide CO2 Fossil fuel combustion - transport, energy production, domestic emissions Agriculture, waste disposal, leakage from the Methane CH4 gas distribution system, coal mining Nitrous oxide N2O Agriculture (fertiliser application), biomass burning, coal combustion, and some industrial processes Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Projected Changes to Annual Average Temperature in UK Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Projected Changes to Seasonal Average Precipitation in UK Winter Summer Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 E.g. temperature changes in the East of England Change in average annual temperature Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios data Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 East of England Study www.sustainability-east.com Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Issues for The East of England • Lack of water resources • Pressure for development • Coastal/fluvial/flash flooding • Subsidence • Higher annual temperatures • Reduced soil moisture levels • Sea level rise • Coastal erosion • Extreme events Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Climate Change in Herts • Hotter drier summers; milder wetter winters • Extreme high temperatures more frequent • Extreme winter precipitation more frequent • Significant decrease in soil moisture content • Increase in thermal growing season Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 UK GHG Inventory • 1x1km National Datasets – Traffic – Population – EUETS (Pollution Inventory) – Employment – Agriculture – Gas Supply – Electricity Supply • Point Sources – (Refineries) – (Power Stations) – (Coke Production) – Industrial/Institutional Combustion – Cement Plant – Other Processes Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Local Authority Defra/DTI CO2 Inventory • Commissioned by Defra and carried out by Netcen to produce a set of experimental statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for local authority (NUTS4) and Government Office Region (NUTS1) areas for the year 2003 now updated for 2004 • Makes use of DTI local gas and electricity consumption data (electricity data are experimental) – DTI’s commitment to “collect and make available data on the pattern of energy use in local areas, to enable local authorities and regional bodies to target activity more effectively” • Study provided nationally consistent carbon dioxide emission estimates at local authority and regional level. The data represent the primary emissions from the consumption of fuel or other process activities that emit CO2 plus the emissions relevant to the production of consumed electricity. Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 CO2 emissions by Local Authority per capita in 2003 (in kt CO2) Domestic CO2 emissions by Local Authority for 2003 (in kt CO2/km2) Note: Emission intensity (per unit area) rather than total emission Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 2006 local CO2 Emissions Basis • Emission by Source – Domestic – Transport – Industrial and Commercial Combustion – Agriculture – Industrial Production Processes – Refineries – Power Stations – Coke Production • Emissions by Energy End User – Domestic – Transport – Industrial and Commercial Combustion – Agriculture – Industrial Production Processes – Refineries – Power Stations – Coke Production Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Addressing Everyday use and CO2 Emissions Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 We all contribute to Climate Change Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change • The Nottingham Declaration is a voluntary pledge to address the issues of climate change. It represents a highlevel, broad statement of commitment that any council can make to its own community. • Over 200 Councils now signed up • The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack was released July 2006 Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 The Two Responses to Climate Change • Mitigation of climate change slowing down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation to climate change responding to the projected impacts of climate change Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Adaptation Mitigation Flood defences Water efficiency Stronger foundations Heatwave plans Insulation Efficient cooling for buildings Efficient cooling for transport CHP Emissions trading Solar energy Reduction in flying Hydrogen fuel cells Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Description Examples Adaptation Mitigation Actions which help us Actions which help us reduce prepare for changes in our our greenhouse gas climate emissions • Improving flood defences • Improving energy efficiency • Designing homes and • Renewable energies infrastructure for higher • Using private cars less temperatures • Improving water efficiency Geography • Locally • Globally Time scale • Short-long term • Long-term (>40 yrs) Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007 Using the Nottingham Declaration Action Pack • The structure of NDAP supports authority-wide climate action plans, but it is designed for flexibility • You can enter at different points in the process, building on any existing work, or picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’ – issues of particular concern for your authority Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007