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SEA of a problem: climate change Miguel Coutinho, Raquel Pinho and Carlos Borrego Objectives Discuss the interaction between climate change and impact assessment Climate change impacts Climate change in impact assessment What is the role of impact assessment? IA might be an important prevention tool Climate change must be taken into account in IA Assessing climate change in IA is different from assessing other effects First, climate change is one of the most significant and complex cumulative effects: it is due to the accumulation of many actions, each of which has only a limited impact but all of which together cause serious effects. Second, in climate change there are two sets of impacts to contend with: the effect of the plan on future emissions of greenhouse gases the impact/constraints set by climate change on the plan IPCC terminology Mitigation Majour scientific emphasis Proves it! “climate change is real” To reduce greenhouse emissions To increase CO2 storage capacity Adaptation Reaction to climate change impacts Evolutionary concept Distribution boundaries of species travel North Can be confused with: Impacts of climate change Impacts An integrated framework Challenges • Are our Impact Assessments still valid after the climate has changed? • Are we prepared to estimate environmental changes caused by our project in a self-changing environment? • How do we include time in our assessment? Future will be my project… F = REF(k) + I1 100% Imp1 80% 60% 40% REF(k) over environment Pressure Estado do Ambiente (capacidade de carga) 120% 20% 0% 0 2 4 6 -20% Time (years) Tempo (anos) 8 10 Future will be several projects F = REF(k) + n ∑Ip 120% Imp1 Imp2 100% 80% 60% 40% REF(k) 20% 0% -20% Imp3 environment Pressure Estado do over Ambiente (capacidade de carga) p=1 0 2 4 6 Tempo (anos) Time (years) 8 10 Time variable Business as usual (BAU) Moderate growth Optimistic scenario (2 - 3 x more) Pessimistic scenario Lower growth Or negative growth… Future might be different from BAU… Future is multi-dimensional and dinamic F(t) = REF(t) + n ∑Ip(t) 120% Imp1(t) Imp2(t) 100% 80% 60% Ref(t) 40% Ref(t) 20% Imp3(t) environment over (capacidade Pressure Estado do Ambiente de carga) p=1 0% 0 2 4 6 -20% Time (years) Tempo (anos) 8 10 Climate and social systems are non-linear There is no reason to believe that changes will occur in an incremental way Future crisis might be a result of systems that are already stressed to the max An exogenous shock on an already highly stressed system might produce a overshoot situation. Thomas Homer-Dixon, 2006 Future with ruptures t < tr ⇒F(t) = REF(t) + n ∑Ip(t) t > tr ⇒F(t) = RUP(t) + p=1 Imp1(t) Imp2(t) 100% 80% Rup(t) 60% Ref(t) 40% Ref(t) 20% Imp3(t) environment over (capacidade Pressure Estado do Ambiente de carga) 120% 0% 0 2 4 6 -20% (anos) TimeTempo (years) 8 10 n ∑Ip(t) p=1 What do we need? Better spatial distribution of climate change and its effects One World Portugal ≠ South Korea Portugal ≠ Sweden Portugal ≠ Italy Porto ≠ Lisbon Local impacts Urban scale What do we need? Understand the time scales of climate change effects Extreme events Heat waves (now) Wet gets wetter (1-10 yrs) Dry gets dryier (1-10 yrs) Sea level rise (10-50 years) Weather patterns meteorological circulations (20-100 years) Greenland ice sheet melting (1000 years) IA + Climate Change • EIA (adaptation) – Identify adequate mitigation measures • SEA (adaptation + mitigation) – Identify adequate development strategies • SEA of Climate Change – The new P: Problem – Holistic approach – Strategic approach