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Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
January 12, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• The challenge of identifying observational constraints on
climate projection uncertainties
– Charles Jackson, University of Texas at Austin
– Thursday, January 12, 2012
– 3:30 pm - 4:30 pm
– 2246 Space Research Building.
First Reading Response
• Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC-AR4)
• Reading responses of roughly one page (singlespaced). The responses do not need to be
elaborate, but they should also not summarize
the reading. They should be used by you as
think pieces to refine your questions and insight
from the readings. They must be submitted via
CTools at least two hours before the start of
lecture for the relevant readings.
Correlated behavior of different parameters
Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time
series from a range of indicators that
would be expected to correlate
strongly with the surface record.
Note that stratospheric cooling is an
expected consequence of greenhouse
gas increases. A version of this figure
with full references is available at
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/ .
Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework
It’s not an either / or argument.
Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2
Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.
Today
• Relation of climate change and other big
ticket items.
• Basic Picture of System
• Carbon Dioxide and Climate
• Past Variability and Historical Context
• Carbon Dioxide Budget
Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things
Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between
energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of
fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas
World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003
*
megaton oil equivalent
Source: International Energy Agency 2005
Update: Electricity Production by Fuel
1974: Total 6272 Tera Watts
2007 Total 19771 Tera Watts
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Other
23%
12%
37%
4%
23%
1%
6%
21%
42%
14%
16%
3%
IEA: Scoreboard 2009 (for 2007 numbers) Page 31
Climate Change Relationships
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
• Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
Climate Change Relationships
• Climate change is linked to consumption.
– The economy depends on us consuming
– Consuming generates the waste that causes
climate change.
– The consumption that has set us on this road
of global warming has been by a relatively
small percentage of the population.
• Wealth is an important variable.
• Hence, social equity is an issue.
That is the big picture context
• Consumption of energy by a larger
percentage of a growing population.
• Increasing green house gases, global
warming, climate change, comes from the
waste of our energy production or the
waste of our economies.
Today
• Relation of climate change and other big
ticket items.
• Basic Picture of System
• Carbon Dioxide and Climate
• Past Variability and Historical Context
• Carbon Dioxide Budget
Scientific Method and Earth’s Climate
• We will first break the scientific investigation down into
pieces.
–
–
–
–
–
Theory
Observations
Prediction
Attribution
Impacts
… Draw a Picture
• We will look at the links of climate change to the other
parts of the problem.
– There is not a simple “solution;” we will not solve this problem and walk
away from it.
– We will be required to manage the climate
• We will define ways forward.
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN
EARTH
PLACE AN
INSULATING
BLANKET
AROUND
EARTH
FOCUS ON
WHAT IS
HAPPENING
AT THE
SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Today
• Scientific investigation of the Earth’s
climate: Foundational information
– Observations of carbon dioxide (CO2)
– Behavior of CO2 and Temperature
– CO2 balance in the atmosphere
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
Web links to some CO2 data
• NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division
– Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas
– Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center
– Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
• NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean
Let’s look to the past
• This is called “paleoclimatology.”
– NOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch
• Ice Core Portal
• Vostok Data
– Petit, Nature, 1999
– Koshland Science Museum
Today
• Relation of climate change and other big
ticket items.
• Basic Picture of System
• Carbon Dioxide and Climate
• Past Variability and Historical Context
• Carbon Dioxide Budget
Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a
measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
350,000 years of Surface
Temperature and Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice
cores
This has been extended
back to > 700,000 years
 During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other
 Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm)
 Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm
Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a
measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
350,000 years of Surface
Temperature and Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice
cores
 During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other
 It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age
 There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans
(and it has been relatively warm)
460 ppm
CO2 2100
390 ppm
CO2 2010
So what are we worried about?
350,000 years of Surface
Temperature and Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice
cores
 Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever
experienced by human kind
 Temperature is expected to follow
 New regimes of climate behavior?
 Humans are adapted to current climate behavior.
The change is expected to happen rapidly (10 -100 years, not 1000’s)
We have gone through those figures fast
• But professor, I spent a lot of time looking at this
figure. The carbon dioxide and temperature
sometimes DO NOT seem perfectly related.
Plus, I have read that in the past the
temperature increase started before the carbon
dioxide increase.
• But professor, I want to go back to that figure. I
spent a lot of time looking at it. It’s pretty clear
that an ice age is on the way. The climate is
clearly periodic, and there is nothing we can do
about it.
460 ppm
CO2 2100
360 ppm
CO2 2005
Are we saving civilization?
350,000 years of Surface
Temperature and Carbon
Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice
cores
 If the normal pattern were to continue,
without additional carbon dioxide, what
would we expect?
Global cooling?
Why do we think
that our predictions
today are more
robust than these
predictions from
the 1970s?
(Next week, this will be an
assignment. One page or
less. Maybe blog length.)
Thinking about these figures and ice ages
• Correlations
• Cause and effect
• Scientific method
New Regimes of Climate Behavior?
GREEN HOUSE
Differences for the Future (100-200 years)
 ~100 ppm CO2 (Already)
 > 200-300 ppm CO2 certain
 ~ xx C polar T difference
 ~ xx C global average T difference
CURRENT
(Temperate)
Differences from Past (20,000 years)
 ~100 ppm CO2
 ~ 20 C polar T difference
 ~ 5 C global average T difference
ICE AGE
Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.
Let’s return to the predictions
• In the introduction / motivation for the
course, I introduced the IPCC predictions.
IPCC projections for the next 100 years.
These numbers are in reasonable relation.
Differences for the Future (100-200 years)
 ~100 ppm CO2 (Already)
 > 200-300 ppm CO2 certain
 ~ 8-20 C polar T difference
 ~ 2-6 C global average T difference
STEAM AGE?
~500 ppm
CURRENT
(360 ppm)
Differences from Past (20,000 years)
 ~100 ppm CO2
 ~ 20 C polar T difference
 ~ 5 C global average T difference
ICE AGE
~200 ppm
Time gradient of CO2 changes, 2 orders of magnitude (100 times) larger.
From the Ice Core Data: Questions?
• We see a relationship between carbon dioxide
(CO2) and Temperature (T)
– What is the cause and effect?
– Why do we bounce between these two regimes?
– Dynamic equilibrium?
• Are these oscillations forced in some way by an
external force?
– Are there other parameters or attributes which are
correlated with this behavior?
• What is different from the stock market, where
past behavior does not indicate future
performance?
Let’s Look at the past 1000 years
• We have more sources of observations.
• We have better observations.
• We have public records and literature and
natural history.
Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
{
Note that on this scale, with more time
resolution, that the fluctuations in
temperature and the fluctuations in CO2
do not match as obviously as in the
long, 350,000 year, record.
What is the cause of the temperature
variability? Can we identify
mechanisms, cause and effect? How?
What do we see from the past 1000 years
• On shorter time scales the CO2 and T are not as cleanly
related.
• Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by
changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F.
• Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to
matter to people.
– Regional changes, extremes?
• Recent changes in both T and CO2 are unprecedented in
the past several hundred thousands of years.
– And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in
the way that we have thrived.
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
What about the CO2 increase?
Concept of “stabilization”
CO2 now
Stabilization as we have thought about it
in the past may not be possible.
Today
• Relation of climate change and other big
ticket items.
• Basic Picture of System
• Carbon Dioxide and Climate
• Past Variability and Historical Context
• Carbon Dioxide Budget
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Important
things in this
figure.
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Enormous
amount of
carbon
dioxide in the
ocean.
-2
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Exchange of
carbon
dioxide
between
atmosphere
and ocean
ocean.
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Large
amount of
carbon
dioxide in the
“soil” and
plants
-1
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Exchange of
carbon
dioxide
between
atmosphere
and “land.”
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Large
amount of
carbon
dioxide in
coal, oil, gas
Hundreds
of Years
+5.5
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Movement of
carbon
dioxide by
burning
Millions
of
Years
+1
What are the
mechanisms
for production
and loss of
CO2?
Movement of
carbon
dioxide by
land use
changes
Were you counting?
• Net sources into the atmosphere
5.5 + 1 = 6.5
• Net removal from the atmosphere
2+1 = 3
About carbon dioxide (CO2)
CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere. In ocean transfer
of CO2 between CO2 and calcium carbonate and
carbonic acid.
In some problems CO2 treated as conserved because of
time scales of transport and chemical inertness.
For the climate problem CO2 in the environment is
increasing. It takes a long time for it to be removed, but
there is a lot of cycling.
Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange
Carbon and Oceanic Exchange
Projected Global Temperature Trends
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC ‘01
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate