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CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
- AND MASS STARVATION BY 2050?
Tim Curtin
Presentation to the ANU
EMERITUS FACULTY
20th February 2008
Carbon Stocks and Flows
Increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide 1958-2006 in parts per million by volume
(ppmv)
CO2@ML
Non-CO2
06
20
03
20
00
20
97
19
94
19
91
19
88
19
85
19
82
19
79
19
76
19
73
19
70
19
67
19
64
19
61
19
19
58
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
If only inflation was as low as CO2 growth at less
than 0.2% p.a.
CO2 growth rate
Linear (CO2 growth rate)
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
Rate of growth in per cent per annum
0.16
-0.02
Measuring Global warming in 1885: the data base year
GLOBAL Temperature Anomalies 1880-1900
in .01 C base period: 1951-1980
10
00
19
99
18
98
18
97
18
96
18
95
18
94
18
93
18
92
18
91
18
90
18
89
18
88
18
87
18
86
18
85
18
84
18
83
18
82
18
81
18
18
80
0
-10
-20
Jan-Dec
-30
-40
-50
-60
Global climate science
• If “global” temperatures in 1885 were
below the average for 1951-1980, when in
the 1880s there was in effect zero
instrumental temperature coverage of the
tropics, where is the “science”?
• Clearly a case of lies, damned lies, and…
Measuring AGW 1945
Measuring “global” warming – in 2005
if it existed it was mostly measured in the USA
Measuring Global warming
•
How global warming is measured by GISS, Miami Arizona
Rise in temperature at Miami AZ after relocation of weather station in
2001 (station used to be in Magma copper mine pit workings)
Lampasas Texas – new location
2001
Hey presto, global warming! Or how Jim Hansen made 2005
the warmest year ever
Mr Micawber’s basic accounting
identity – and mine
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Y = income, X = expenditure
Y > X = happiness
Y < X = misery
Y – X = S (Saving)
M = emissions of CO2 in year t
C = change in atmospheric concentration of CO2 in year t
U = uptakes of CO2 by terrestrial & oceanic photosynthesis in year t
Ct = Mt – Ut, so Ut = Mt – Ct
In 2000-2006 on average, Mt = 9.1 GtC, Ct = 4.1 GtC, so Ut = 5.0 GtC
That is, 9.1 – 4.1 = 5.0
So uptakes by photosynthesis averaged 5 GtC p.a. equal to 55 per cent of CO2
emissions from 2000-2006 (Source: Canadell et al PNAS 2007)
Sensitivity to estimation error – each underestimate of CO2 emissions means an equal
and opposite understatement of CO2 uptakes
Canadell Canadell Gitz&Ciais Gitz&Ciais
2000-2006
%
2000-2006
%
7.60
83.52
7.60
71.70
1.50
16.48
3.00
28.30
9.10
100.00
10.60
100.00
Sources
Fossil fuel
Land use change
Total
Sinks
Atmosphere
4.10
45.05
4.10
Ocean
2.20
24.18
2.20
Land uptake
2.80
30.77
4.30
Total
9.10
100.00
10.60
Total Ocean & Land
5.00
54.95
6.50
Sources:
Canadell Ciais et al 2007; Gitz & Ciais 2004
38.68
20.75
40.57
100.00
61.32
What of Human CO2 emissions?
(aka breath)
Sources
Fossil fuel
Land use change
Humans
Total
Sinks
Atmosphere
Ocean
Land uptake
Total
Total Ocean & Land
Canadell Canadell Gitz&Ciais Gitz&Ciais
2000-2006
%
2000-2006
%
7.60
68.47
7.60
60.32
1.50
13.51
3.00
23.81
2.00
18.02
2.00
15.87
11.10
100.00
12.60
100.00
4.10
2.20
4.80
11.10
7.00
36.94
19.82
43.24
100.00
63.06
4.10
2.20
6.30
12.60
8.50
32.54
17.46
50.00
100.00
67.46
Micawber’s Climate Stocks and Flows
Opening
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Atmospheric Carbon: Stocks and Flows
Emissions Land use
Total
Total
Closing Mauna Loa
GtC
Inflow
749.11
752.49
754.10
754.97
757.76
762.09
765.70
768.93
773.52
779.49
781.53
785.25
788.37
793.87
798.69
801.96
807.38
6.20
6.31
6.19
6.20
6.34
6.49
6.65
6.84
6.79
6.80
6.98
7.12
7.17
7.50
7.91
8.17
8.44
Change Emissions Uptakes
2.16
2.38
2.24
2.22
2.20
2.17
2.14
2.11
2.09
2.07
2.08
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
Source: CDIAC
NB Figures in italics are from Canadell et al. 2007a;
8.35
8.69
8.43
8.43
8.55
8.65
8.79
8.95
8.87
8.87
9.06
8.62
8.67
9.00
9.41
9.67
9.94
4.98
7.07
7.56
5.64
4.21
5.04
5.56
4.36
2.91
6.83
5.34
5.49
3.16
4.18
6.14
4.25
6.14
GtC
752.49
754.10
754.97
757.76
762.09
765.70
768.93
773.52
779.49
781.53
785.25
788.37
793.87
798.69
801.96
807.38
811.18
Airborne
CO2 ppmv Fraction %
354.22
354.98
355.39
356.70
358.74
360.44
361.96
364.12
366.93
367.89
369.64
371.11
373.70
375.97
377.51
380.06
381.85
0.55
0.26
0.14
0.45
0.68
0.56
0.49
0.67
0.88
0.30
0.53
0.44
0.77
0.64
0.41
0.66
0.45
Fig.1 Falling proportion of retained emissions
(unvarnished data)
Fig 1 The Airborne Fraction
Proportion of total CO2 emissions retained in the atmosphere
1.20
0.80
AF
Linear (AF)
0.60
0.40
0.20
04
20
01
20
98
19
2
19
95
19
9
86
83
89
19
19
19
74
71
77
19
80
19
19
19
5
19
68
19
6
62
19
59
-
19
Distribution (fraction)
1.00
Fig.2. The massaged (by Canadell et al) version of the data - rising
proportion of emissions retained in the atmosphere
How to fudge data
•
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•
Canadell & co justify the data massaging they did to get the declining trend
curve in Fig.1 to turn up as in Fig.2 in the Supporting text to their PNAS
October 2007 paper.
Despite having an annual time series of more than 40 years they considered it
necessary (1) to remove intra-annual variability of the Mauna Loa series due to
the spring flush of the NH, and (2) the inter-annual variability associated with
El Nino (ENSO) and volcanic data.
Step (1) is unnecessary for an annual end-of year series. The success of Step
(2) in reversing the trend of the raw data implies that ENSO and volcanic
activity themselves had a secular trend to act as sinks, soaking up CO2.
The truth is that Canadell et al have been striving for years in a great profusion
of papers and books to prove that there is already “Saturation of the Terrestrial
Carbon Sink” (that is the title of their chapter 6 in their latest book on all this).
But Micawber’s identity defeats them, for the annoying truth is that virtually
every year since 1960 more than half of recorded CO2 emissions has been
taken up by globally, so less than half has stayed up, as confirmed by
comparing CGIAD and IEA data on emissions with Mauna Loa.
Fig.3 Saturation of the Earth’s sinks? The declining trend of
the airborne fraction since 1993 again indicates increasing
sinks
Airborne CO2 fraction as %
The Airborne Fraction since Pinatubo and end of USSR
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
AF
Linear (AF)
Fig.4 Another refutation of Canadell’s saturating terrestrial
sink: world food production absorbs CO2 via GPP
200
180
Index (1980 = 100)
160
140
World Food Production (FAO Index 1980 =100)
CO2 in ppmv at Mauna Loa (Index)
120
100
World Mean Temperature (Index of actual Celsius)
100)
80
60
40
20
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Atmos CO2
FAO Food
GISS T
Fig. 5 Relationship between CO2 emissions and world food
production – emission flows more important than the
atmospheric stock because of partial pressure and altitude
effects
Increases since 1980: Food 60%, Emissions 30%, Atmospheric CO2 10%
180
160
Index 1980=100
140
CO2 from emissions
World Food production (FAO)
120
100
Mauna Loa
80
60
40
20
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Effect of elevated CO2 on yields
In defence of oil palm
Parameters
Unit
Tropical Oil Palm
Forest Plantation
Biomass
t Dm/ha/yr
22.9
36.5
CO2 fixation
t CO2/ha/yr
9.62
25.7
Photosynthesis
mol/m2/s
13-19
21-24
Absorbed radiation MJ/m2/yr
51.4
82.9
Respiration
t CO2/ha/yr
121.1
96.5
O2 Production
t O2/ha/yr
7
18.7
Source: Emma Lamade & J-P Bouillet
Mass suicide plans of the IPCC, EU and Mr
Rudd
• 55 per cent of CO2 emissions are taken up by photosynthesis, and this
equates to Mr Micawber’s savings and happiness.
• But the IPCC, EU and Mr Rudd (along with Ms Wong and Ross Garnaut)
require us to reduce emissions to 40 per cent of the 1990 level by 2050.
• McKinsey claimed last week Australia could do better by achieving 40 per
cent of the 1990 level by 2030, at a cost per person equal to just one
mobile phone call a day.
• The global 1990 level of emissions was 8.36 GtC (including land use
change of 2.26 GtC),, so reducing to 40% of the 1990 level means a level
of 3.35 GtC, which is 33% of the 2006 level of 9.94 GtC, and (for
Australia) 27% of the 2030 BAU level.
• Emissions reduced to 3.35 GtC will be well below the current uptake level
of CO2 of over 5 GtC a year, and that must impact on productivity of
agriculture forestry and fisheries
Fig.6 How to create a shortage of carbon dioxide by
reducing emissions to 40% of 2000 level by 2050
Fossil fuel flow, Actuals 1994-2004, growth @3.2%pa 2004-2012, declining at 2.7% p.a.2013-2050
Additions/substractions from atmospheric GtC
Total Terrestrial & Oceanic Uptake, actual growth @ 3.4% p.a. 1994-2004 then extrapolated
Net atmospheric uptake of Carbon Dioxide (Gt C)
40
30
20
10
0
1990
-10
-20
-30
-40
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
Fig.7Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)
after global emissions reduction
to 40% of level in 2000 by 2050
450
400
350
Carbon dioxide in ppm
300
250
Pre-industrial level of CO2 (280 ppm)
200
150
100
50
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
Will agricultural production at today’s level and growth be
sustainable with 60% cuts in emissions from the 1990 level
by 2050?
• Obviously Figs. 6 and 7 & depend on the assumption
that CO2 uptakes continue even if China and India join
the US, EU, and Australia et al in going for the minimum
60% cuts in 1990 emission levels by 2050 (Stern wants
80%).
• Probably they will not. But if not, what then for the
agricultural production levels and growth in Fig.5?
• They will not be sustainable if emissions are cut by that
amount, and starvation resulting from the ever rising
food prices we are already witnessing will soon be the
lot of all our grandchildren.
The Hansen-Sato emission reduction rule
• James Hansen and Makiko Sato (PNAS, 16 Nov 2004): the
growth rate of methane (CH4) emissions is down by 66%
since 1980.
• N2O growth shows zero trend since 1978.
• That means a reduced need to cut CO2 emissions for any
targeted level of forcings.
• “Stabilization of atmospheric composition requires CO2
emissions to be reduced to match the CO2 absorbed by
the ocean and biosphere”.
• Why then do UK, EU, and Australia seek to reduce
emissions below the rate of absorption?
Why not set targets by latitude?
Enforcing Kyoto: the Garnaut Plan
•
•
•
•
“There is already influential talk in the United States (amongst those
supporting firm mitigation policies at home) and the European Union, of trade
sanctions against non-cooperating countries.
I myself worry about the risk of capture by other interests favouring protection
for other reasons. Withdrawal of opportunities for trade in greenhouse gas
credits and development assistance would seem to be less problematic
instruments of ‘punishment’.” (Lee Lecture, 29/11/07)
The suggested “punishments” look more like toothless tigers: if China and
India decline to subscribe to Kyoto II, that itself indicates a lack of interest in
emissions trading credits, and both are doing quite well enough without
development assistance.
The EU’s threat to impose trade sanctions is of course largely protectionist, but
very dangerous, as trade wars can lead to real wars (remember Pearl Harbor).
The Garnaut Emission Trading Scheme
• Ross Garnaut has already sketched what he has in mind for
his ETS Report:
• Targets or Caps will not be fixed or enforced on an annual
basis so long as at the end (2020, 2030, or 2050) the
respective target has been achieved.
• The Trading in Credits will be managed by a kind of
“Reserve Bank”.
• Problem: For any given Cap to be achieved, enough firms
must emit enough less than their caps to earn credits for
sale to non-performing firms to cover their excess
emissions.
Emissions Trading in Practice: the case of Rio Tinto
• Rio Tinto’s Aluminium operations increased their emissions of CO2e
from 166,486 tonnes in 2004 to 973,977 tonnes in 2006 (2007). Had
the ALP won the 2004 election and introduced emissions caps and
trading, presumably the expansion of output leading to these growing
emissions could only have happened if Rio had bought credits. Even if
the carbon dioxide price that emerged from the ETS was only A$60
per tonne of CO2e (A$16.34 per tonne of carbon), (McKinsey
mentioned A$65 last week) Rio would have had to buy credits costing
A$50 million p.a. (assuming the cap had been set only at 80% of the
2004 level), equal to 20 per cent of its capital expenditure in 2006, or
6.76 per cent of net earnings in 2006. Given that the ETS credits would
have to be purchased every year, how long would it take for Rio to
determine that piping the CO2 into Gladstone harbour was more cost
effective. It would moreover be able to recover the cost of this by
selling the resulting earned credits to those with less easy disposal
options. A good news day for the Barrier Reef!
Emission caps & trading could promote CCS with its
potential for more harm that that of nuclear waste
• In 1986 the volcanic lake on Cameroon’s Mount Nios
produced a cloud of carbon dioxide that drifted down the
mountain and killed 1750 villagers as they slept. This was
many more than the 36 or so who died at Chernobyl just a
few months earlier.
• In 1979, an explosion at Dieng volcano in Indonesia
released 200,000 tonnes of CO2, smothering 142 people on
the plain below. Any gas at concentrations approaching 1
million ppm is highly dangerous, apart from oxygen
Cargo cult of the 21st century
(Peter Walsh)
• The Hawke government finance minister
Peter Walsh has warned the Rudd
Government that cutting greenhouse gas
emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 would
send Australian living standards back to the
Middle Ages. (The Australian, 26 January
2008)
References
•
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•
•
Ainsworth, E.A. and S.P. Long 2005. What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2
enrichment (FACE)? New Phytologist, 165: 351-372.
Australian Greenhouse Office 2006. Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts. AGO, Canberra.
Canadell, J. and C Le Quéré, M.R. Raupach, C.B. Field, E.T. Buitenhius, P. Ciais, T.J. Conway, N.P.
Gillett, R.A. Houghton, G. Marland 2007a. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth
from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Science of the USA, October 25, 2007.
Canadell, J., and P. Ciais, T. Conway, C. Field, C. Le Quéré, S. Houghton, G. Marland, M. Raupach,
E. Buitenhuis, N. Gillett 2007b. Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget. Global
Carbon Project, Canberra.
CDIAC 2007. see Marland et al. 2007
Coase, R.H. 1990. The Firm the Market and the Law. University of Chicago Press, Chicago and
London.
Denman K.L. et al. (including P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, P. Bousquet, J. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, C.
Le Quéré, M. Raupach, and W. Steffen) 2007. Couplings between Changes in the Climate System and
Biogeochemistry, in WGI 2007.
Dyson, F. 2007. A Many-colored Glass. Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe. University
of Virginia Press. Charlottesville and London.
More References
•
•
•
•
Garnaut, R. 2007. Will climate change bring an end to the Platinum Age? Inaugural S.T. Lee Lecture.
Hansen, J. and M. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas growth rates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,
November 16, 2004, vol.101, 46, 16109-16114.
Hoyle, F. 1981. Ice. Hutchison, London.
Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf 2007. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppmv) at Mauna Loa. Carbon Dioxide
Research Group, Scripps Institute of Oceanography (SIO), from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2
•
Lomborg, B. 2007. Cool it. The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming. Marshall Cavendish, London.
•
Marland, G, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andrews 2007. Trends; a compendium of data. CDIAC, Oak Ridge (availble at
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/
Metz,
Metz B. et al. (eds) 2005. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. IPCC Special Report. Summary for Policy
Makers. IPCC, WG III.
•
Nicholls, R.J. and R.S.J. Tol 2006, ‘Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios
over the 21st Century’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – Mathematical, Physical and Engineering
Sciences, 361 (1841), 1073-1095.
•
Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G.Boyer 2000, Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming The MIT Press,
Cambridge, Massachusetts.
•
Penner, J.E., D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, D.J. Dokken, M. McFarland 1999. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. IPCC,
CUP, Cambridge.
And more references
•
•
•
Rio Tinto 2007. Annual Report and Financial Statements 2006. Rio Tinto Limited, Melbourne.
Robson, A. 2007. A Solution in Search of a Problem. Lavoisier Group, www.lavoisier.com.au, Melbourne.
Shergold, P. 2007. Report of the Task Group on Emissions Trading. Australian Government, Canberra.
•
•
•
Stern, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review. CUP, Cambridge.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stoy, V. 1965. Photosynthesis, respiration, and carbohydrate accumulation in spring wheat in relation to yield. Physologia
Plantarum Supplementum IV, Lund.
Tol, R.S.J. and G.W. Yohe 2006, ‘Of Dangerous Climate Change and Dangerous Emission Reduction’ in H.J. Schellnhuber, W.
Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe (eds.), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, Chapter 30, pp. 291-298.
UIG (Universal Industrial Gases) 2007. Carbon Dioxide Properties, Uses, Applications. UIG, Easton PA. (available at
www.uigi.com/carbondioxide.html)
WGI (Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. CUP, Cambridge.
WGIII (Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
Annex: Freeman Dyson and carbon dioxide
(not used at Presentation)
The effect of carbon dioxide is important where the air is dry, and air
is usually dry only where it is cold. Hot desert air may feel dry but
often contains a lot of water vapor. The warming effect of carbon
dioxide is strongest where air is cold and dry, mainly in the arctic
rather than in the tropics, mainly in mountainous regions rather than
in lowlands, mainly in winter rather than in summer, and mainly at
night rather than in daytime. The warming is real, but it is mostly
making cold places warmer rather than making hot places hotter. To
represent this local warming by a global average is misleading.
The fundamental reason why carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
critically important to biology is that there is so little of it. A field of
corn growing in full sunlight in the middle of the day uses up all the
carbon dioxide within a meter of the ground in about five minutes. If
the air were not constantly stirred by convection currents and winds,
the corn would stop growing. About a tenth of all the carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere is converted into biomass every summer and given
back to the atmosphere every fall. That is why the effects of fossil-fuel
burning cannot be separated from the effects of plant growth and
decay.
More Freeman Dyson
Greenhouse experiments show that many plants growing in an
atmosphere enriched with carbon dioxide react by increasing their rootto-shoot ratio. This means that the plants put more of their growth into
roots and ess into stems and leaves. A change in this direction is to be
expected, because the plants have to maintain a balance between the
leaves collecting carbon from the air and the roots collecting mineral
nutrients from the soil. The enriched atmosphere tilts the balance so that
the plants need less leaf-area and more root-area. Now consider what
happens to the roots and shoots when the growing season is over, when
the leaves fall and the plants die. The new-grown biomass decays and is
eaten by fungi or microbes. Some of it returns to the atmosphere and
some of it is converted into topsoil. On the average, more of the aboveground growth will return to the atmosphere and more of the belowground growth will become topsoil. So the plants with increased root-toshoot ratio will cause an increased transfer of carbon from the
atmosphere into topsoil. If the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide
due to fossil-fuel burning has caused an increase in the average root-toshoot ratio of plants over large areas, then the possible effect on the topsoil reservoir will not be small.
Freeman Dyson, cont
.
There is no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the
warming is not global. I am not saying that the warming does not
cause problems. Obviously it does. Obviously we should be trying to
understand it better. I am saying that the problems are grossly
exaggerated. They take away money and attention from other
problems that are more urgent and more important, such as poverty
and infectious disease and public education and public health, and the
preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans, not to
mention easy problems such as the timely construction of adequate
dikes around the city of New Orleans.
We don’t know how big a fraction of our emissions is absorbed by the
land, since we have not measured the increase or decrease of the
biomass.
The number that I ask you to remember is the increase in
thickness, averaged over one half of the land area of the
planet, of the biomass that would result if all the carbon that
we are emitting by burning fossil fuels were absorbed. The
average increase in thickness is one hundredth of an inch per year.
The point of this calculation is the very favourable rate of exchange
between carbon in the atmosphere and carbon in the soil..
Freeman Dyson, concluded
To stop the carbon in the atmosphere from increasing, we only need to
grow the biomass in the soil by a hundredth of an inch per year… If we
plant crops without ploughing the soil, more of the biomass goes into
roots which stay in the soil, and less returns to the atmosphere. If we
use genetic engineering to put more biomass into roots, we can probably
achieve much more rapid growth of topsoil. I conclude from this
calculation that the problem of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
is a problem of land management, not a problem of
meteorology….
We do not know whether intelligent land-management could
increase the growth of the topsoil reservoir by four billion tons of
carbon per year, the amount needed to stop the increase of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. All that we can say for sure is
that this is a theoretical possibility and ought to be seriously
explored.
[But clearly it will not be explored by the Garnaut Review]