Download Five steps to energy freedom

Climate change policy
Philip Lloyd
Energy Institute
Cape Peninsula University of Technology
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
What I want to talk about
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•
•
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The nature of climate change
The known impacts of climate change
The Green Paper
The problems with the proposed policy
A possible solution
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The nature of climate change
• Greenhouse gases are accumulating in
the atmosphere
– CO2 has increased from ~300ppm to
~380ppm in the last century
• Physics says the gases will trap heat
• We have seen an increase in temperature
in the last century
– But the increase is not very significant
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
Highest
But the increase is not very
significant
40
Average
daytime
Temperature, deg C
Average
nighttime
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
April
March
Feb
-5
Jan
Lowest
The known impacts
• Because the change is not very significant,
the impacts of a century of change are
barely detectable
– “Higher temperatures will influence the
rainfall, but it is still uncertain how the
annual rainfall will change. It could increase
in some parts of the country, and decrease in
other parts.” (SAWS)
– Some places will see more violent events
– And other places will see less!
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
Some will see more - and others less!
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The known impacts II
• After a century of change, changes are
detectable; it is debatable if they are significant
• Even things like sea level rise
– Satellite measurements give a general 3mm/year
globally
– South Africa is seeing less than this
– Our defences against the sea are already in place
– This century’s rise seems unlikely to be disastrous
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
This century’s rise seems unlikely
to be disastrous
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The known impacts III
• Malaria and tropical diseases will NOT be
impacted
– they are public-health driven, not temperature
driven
• There will be more storm damage
– Because there are more structures to be
damaged
– Because the value of the structures at risk has
increased
– NOT because the storms are more violent
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The Green Paper
• “Government regards climate change as
one of the greatest threats to sustainable
development”
• Really? What about water, poverty, health,
housing, sanitation, pollution?
• The impacts of these are significant and
immediate
• In contrast, climate change is detectable
and its impacts lie in the future
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The Green Paper II
• “The stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations at a level that prevents - interference with the climate system will
require the - - implementation of an
effective and binding global agreement
on greenhouse gas emission reductions.”
• Therefore there is no point in reducing our
emissions unless and until there is an
effective and binding global agreement
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The Green Paper III
• “South Africa - - is committed to reducing its own
greenhouse gas emissions in order to
successfully facilitate - - an effective and binding
global agreement.”
• Why? How could our unilateral reduction
facilitate anything?
– SA emits ~125MtC annually
– China’s emissions are growing at ~200MtC each year
– Any reduction we made would be invisible in the
global atmosphere
• We would feel any effects of increased CO2
even if our emissions were nil
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
The Green Paper IV
• “Although there will be costs associated with
South Africa’s greenhouse gas emission
reduction efforts, there will also be significant - social and economic benefits, including
improved international competitiveness - - from
a transition to a low carbon economy. These
costs will be far less than the costs of delay and
inaction.”
• All of this is highly questionable
– We have CHEAP coal – no low-carbon energy comes
near it
• Lord Stern’s analysis is just wrong!
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
Transition to a low C economy?
14000
12000
Renewable
10000
8000
Nuclear
6000
Gas
Oil
4000
Coal
2000
0
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Mtoe
Hydro
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
A possible solution
• We need to make some sort of gesture at
Durban when the Conference of Parties
meets there later this year.
• Of course, it would be nice to have a
carbon policy in place, but that is
impractical
• At Copenhagen in December 2009, Pres.
Zuma scored a diplomatic coup
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
A possible solution II
• His work led to the Copenhagen Accord, in
terms of which the developed nations would pay
the developing to assist reducing emissions
• We have enough information to be able to cost
our emission reduction proposals quite
accurately
• The Department should be asked to prepare the
costs of mitigation to be placed before the
Durban COP
– And put carbon reduction on hold until the world
agrees
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011
Thank you for inviting me!
Any questions?
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee March 2011