* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Vulnerability, Resilience, & Adaptation: Societal Causes
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Vulnerability, Resilience, & Adaptation: Societal Causes and Responses Elizabeth L. Malone Joint Global Change Research Institute CRCES Workshop: Societal Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability in the United States 26-28 April 2007 Will better information— i.e., predictions about climate variability and change and their impacts— help societies build resilience and adaptive capacity? Answer: Not necessarily, unless people see how such information relates to their lives and their future. 2 Rationale for studying vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation These connect climate with societal issues, such as development and well-being salience. By assessing current vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity, we gain insight into current dependence on climate and can extend that insight to climate change. E.g., current lack of adaptation to current climate may mean less resilience/more vulnerability in the future. Once the climate-society relationship begins to be defined, information about future climate becomes more important. 3 Why the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM)? Changes the focus from physical impacts to meaningful societal consequences Brings together social, economic, and environmental factors Summarizes information via quantitative indicators Scenario-driven, i.e., allows different future conditions to be explored Allows comparisons (unlike most case studies) while preserving transparency (in sources of the “scores”). 4 Important Concepts Vulnerability: capacity to be harmed; composite of sensitivity, adaptability, and exposure Resilience: the ability to cope with or recover from exposure or shocks Sensitivity: the degree to which changes and/or variability in climate lead to changes in system attributes Adaptation: adjustments in anticipation of or in response to climate change and/or variability Adaptive capacity: the ability to adjust to new conditions Exposure: climate stimuli that affect a system or region 5 Climate Change & Variability Sensitivity Food Water Settlement Health Ecosystems Mitigation Adaptation capacity Exposure Human resources Economic capacity Environmental capacity Vulnerability & Resilience Adaptation Coping Capacity Source: Brenkert and Malone, 2005. 6 Sensitivity Human settlement and infrastructure Population at flood risk from sea level rise Population without access to clean water and sanitation Food Security Cereals production/ crop land area Protein consumption/ per capita Ecosystem sensitivity Percent irrigated land Fertilizer use Water security Water availability (demand/ supply) Precipitation amount Human health Fertility rate Life expectancy 7 Coping and adaptation capacity Economic capacity GDP per capita Equity index Human capital Dependency Ratio Literacy rate Environmental capacity Land use measure (% unmanaged land) SO2 emissions per unit area Population density 8 Example: Mexico ranked among countries: second quartile 63rd of 160 countries Belize Gabon Mauritius Indonesia Albania Thailand Barbados Bahrain Malta Hungary Bulgaria Brazil Czech Republic Poland Suriname Lebanon Macedonia Ecuador Libya Serbia and Montenegr Slovak Republic Equatorial Guinea Mexico Peru Cuba Panama Bhutan Brunei Sri Lanka Oman Jamaica Colombia Algeria Malaysia Chile Jordan Turkey Ukraine Uruguay Vietnam sensitivity resilience coping 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Proxy Information on the Ranking of the Resilience Indicator Nuevo León Jalisco Tamaulipas México Sonora Sinaloa Quintana Roo Campeche Querétaro de Arteaga Chihuahua México (country) Coahuila de Zaragoza Morelos Tabasco Baja California Nayarit Aguascalientes Durango Tlaxcala Colima Guanajuato Michoacán de Ocampo Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave Hidalgo Baja California Sur Distrito Federal San Luis Potosí Zacatecas Yucatán Puebla Guerrero Chiapas Oaxaca population at risk due to sealevel rise access to safe water access to safe sanitation cereal production/crop land protein demand birth rate life expectancy irrigation level fertilizer use/crop land water availability precipitation GDP per capita modified Human Devlopment Index dependency ratio illiteracy levels 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 non-managed land (%) SO2/total land population density The states with the highest and lowest resilience are similar in ecosystem resilience and close in environmental capacity, but differ greatly in settlement security, food security, human health, human resources and economic capacity 120 100 80 Jalisco 60 40 Oaxaca 20 environmental capacity human resources economic capacity water availability ecosystem resilience health food security settlement 0 Comparison of projected resilience of two Mexican states Oaxaca Jalisco 90 90 80 80 resilience index 100 resilience index 100 70 60 50 70 60 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1990 2005 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2065 2080 2095 Oaxaca % explanation of the uncertainty of the resilience index by the various proxies % explanation of the uncertainty of the resilience index by the various proxies Jalisco 2020 2050 2065 2080 2095 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 Assessing resilience and adaptive capacity reveals policy spaces for building both Although geographic and climatic conditions are important, even more important are the social-ecological systems in a region. Results lead to the next set of questions about policy priorities in an area – but clearly different places have different policy needs. The VRIM country-level adaptive capacity results have been combined with projected climate change from the COSMIC model to show that impacts may well outrun adaptive capacity in most places during this century (Yohe et al. 2006). 13