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Summary of predicted climate effects on species Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS B1 Low emissions scenario A1B Medium emissions scenario A2 Medium/high emissions scenario “Business as usual” Increases in surface air temperature, IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change Vulnerability framework Levels of vulnerability used to grade species 28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: • • • • • • • • • Hawksbill Turtle, Green Turtle, Balearic Shearwater, Kemp's Ridley Turtle, Narwhal, North Pacific Right Whale, Northern Atlantic Right Whale, Relict Gull, Gharial, • • • • • • • • • • Loggerhead Turtle, Short-tailed Albatross, West African Manatee, Bowhead Whale, Dama Gazelle, Leatherback Turtle, Sociable Plover, Southern Right Whale, Olive Ridley, Addax, • • • • • • • • • • Red-breasted Goose, White-naped Crane, Steller's Eider, Siberian Crane, Blue Whale, Giant Catfish, Basra Reed-warbler, Common Sturgeon, Bermuda Petrel and Snow Leopard. RIS light-trap network > 400 have run at least 1 full year 56 sites sampled ≥15 years 30 sites sampled ≥25 years 80 – 100 run annually Continuous, national record of >400 macro-moth species One of the world’s longest records of contemporary insect biodiversity Trap operating currently Trap no longer operated Decline in total trap catches Total Catch / Site 0.2 Abundance Index 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 32 % decrease in 35 years -0.4 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 2005 Two fundamental concerns… • Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming threat? • Are we sufficiently responding to that threat? What is a safe temperature/CO2 level? Current focus is all on 2oC (~450ppm CO2)