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Summary of predicted climate effects on species
Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN
CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON
IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS
B1 Low
emissions
scenario
A1B Medium
emissions
scenario
A2 Medium/high
emissions
scenario
“Business as usual”
Increases in surface air temperature, IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change
Vulnerability framework
Levels of vulnerability used to grade species
28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
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Hawksbill Turtle,
Green Turtle,
Balearic Shearwater,
Kemp's Ridley Turtle,
Narwhal,
North Pacific Right
Whale,
Northern Atlantic
Right Whale,
Relict Gull,
Gharial,
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Loggerhead Turtle,
Short-tailed Albatross,
West African Manatee,
Bowhead Whale,
Dama Gazelle,
Leatherback Turtle,
Sociable Plover,
Southern Right Whale,
Olive Ridley,
Addax,
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Red-breasted Goose,
White-naped Crane,
Steller's Eider,
Siberian Crane,
Blue Whale,
Giant Catfish,
Basra Reed-warbler,
Common Sturgeon,
Bermuda Petrel and
Snow Leopard.
RIS light-trap network
> 400 have run at least 1 full year
56 sites sampled ≥15 years
30 sites sampled ≥25 years
80 – 100 run annually
Continuous, national record of >400
macro-moth species
One of the world’s longest records of
contemporary insect biodiversity
Trap operating currently
Trap no longer operated
Decline in total trap catches
Total Catch / Site
0.2
Abundance Index
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
32 % decrease in 35 years
-0.4
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
1990
1995
2000
2005
Two fundamental concerns…
• Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming
threat?
• Are we sufficiently responding to that
threat?
What is a safe temperature/CO2
level?
Current focus is all on 2oC (~450ppm CO2)