Download Long term goal

DFID Meeting with
NGOs
Jos Wheatley
14/04/08
Long term goal and the big picture
Cost effective trajectory
(global on 1990)
70
Cost/benefit of
reducing
emissions
Marginal
costs and
benefits
(present value
of expected
discounted
utility)
Marginal costs of
mitigation
50% in 2050
Global Emissions (GtCO2e)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2015 High Peak - 1.0%/yr
2020 High Peak - 2.5%/yr
2030 High Peak - 4.0%/yr
2040 High Peak - 4.5%/yr (overshoot)
2020 Low Peak - 1.5%/yr
2030 Low Peak - 2.5%/yr
2040 Low Peak - 3.0%/yr
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Marginal costs of climate
change impacts (including
adaptation costs)
Stabilisation target for ultimate
greenhouse gas atmospheric
concentrations
Goal
Allocation of
effort
New evidence
climate cost/benefit
 revised at next
commitment
Scientific
evidence IPCC
Can  over time
Adaptation
response
Policies and
measures – carbon
market and
additional finance
mechanisms
DFID input to Long term goal
Role: support development/realisation of UK position
Strategy: support analysis & dialogue on development
perspective
• draw in outside expertise (MDB, academics)
• capacity building
• communicate / build alliances
Inputs: support analysis of costs/benefits
• narrow estimate (CBA; GLOCAF, adaptation costs)
• cost effective trajectories; intermediary targets
• stimulate research
DFID input to Allocation
Role: support development/realisation of UK position
Strategy: support analysis & dialogue on development
perspective
• draw in outside expertise (MDB, academics)
• capacity building
• communicate / build alliances
Inputs: explore economic implications of different allocation
metrics to encourage an equitable outcome.
• implications of different allocation approaches (GLOCAF)
• assessment of implications of alternative (non-cap‘n’trade)
approaches
• identify trade offs (displacing mit to ada costs).
$
$
Project Based CDM
Programmatic CDM
Goal &
Allocation
SD-PAMs?
$
$
GLOBAL
CARBON
MARKET
$
Sectoral Trading
Sectoral Crediting
$
DFID input to Mex
Role: support development realisation of UK/EU position
Strategy: support analysis & dialogue on development
perspective
• draw in outside expertise (MDB, academics)
• capacity building
• communicate / build alliances
Inputs: make economic case for CDM expansion and rules reform
•effectiveness, efficiency and transition for MICs (rules and inputs)
•access for LICs (rules and inputs)
•rationale for sector expansion (forestry)
•identify trade offs (supporting development relative to abatement)
Finance
Lack of finance for low
carbon development.
‘Adaptation’ finance
insufficient and effective.
Past
Role of MDBs?
Significant flows
of carbon finance
from developed
to developing
Multi-donor finance for low
countries
carbon and climate resilient
development.
Present
Carbon market reformed to
expand reach and impact.
Future
Additional finance
tops up aid to
support climate
resilient
development
Taxation?
Hypothecation?
Issue bonds?
0.7%?
Capacity building
Stage 2: Deepened
Stage 1: Basic
understanding: National
Implications and opportunities
of a deal
understanding: process and
broad implications
•Short term initiatives
•Medium/long term initiatives
•Aimed at filling immediate
capacity “gaps”
•Aimed at increasing depth/
breadth of understanding
•Linking current expertise
to recipients
•Primarily aimed at LICs
Full capacity to
engage and
shape climate
change
frameworks and
their delivery
mechanisms
•Building up
regional/national institutions
to act as “hubs”
• 1st phase MICs / 2nd Phase
LICs
Stage 3: Compliance and
Implementation understanding
•Long term initiative
•Aimed at assisting countries to respond: integration/
planning/ future commitment phases
•UN/Regional provider