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2nd Workshop on Impacts of Global Climate Change
on Hydraulics, Hydrology and Transportation
Washington, D.C.
March 29, 2006
Port Planning and
Perceptions about Climate Change
David H. Bierling
Paula Lorente Rodríguez
Texas Transportation Institute
Texas A&M Engineering
Department of Landscape
Architecture and Urban Planning
Texas A&M University
Our Goal…
Explore regional and size differences in
U.S. port industry planning practices
and perceptions about climate change.
Our Analysis…
A Web-based survey distributed to 73
continental U.S. ports.
Among the top 150 by USACE tonnage.
East, West and Gulf Coasts, Great Lakes &
Inland Rivers.
Nineteen questions about port planning and
perceptions about climate change.
Responses from 31 ports across regions and
tonnage levels, 27 valid responses.
Fisher exact tests used for analysis.
Response Distribution
Port Region * Tonnage Crosstabulation
Count
Port
Region
East Coast
Gulf Coast
Inland Rivers and
Great Lakes
West Coas t
Total
Tonnage
Less than 5
5 million tons
million tons
per year or
per year
more
3
1
4
6
Total
4
10
2
5
7
4
13
2
14
6
27
For this sample:
– Most responses for Gulf Coast ports,
Least responses for East Coast ports.
– Overall responses centered around 5 million tons/yr.
– No significant regional differences by tonnage levels.
What are the planning horizons of ports
and are there regional differences?
Port Region * Planning Horizon Crosstabulation
Count
Port
Region
East Coas t
Gulf Coast
Inland Rivers and
Great Lakes
West Coas t
Planning Horizon
5 years or
15 years
les s
10 years
or longer
0
2
2
6
3
1
Total
Total
4
10
6
1
0
7
3
15
0
6
3
6
6
27
For this sample:
–
–
–
–
56% are 5 years or less, 78% are 10 years or less.
Inland Rivers/Great Lakes more likely 5 years or less.
East Coast more likely 10 years or more.
No significant differences by tonnage levels.
Port Plans for Infrastructure Development
100%
90%
80%
30%
22%
Percent
70%
60%
Percent No
Percent Yes
50%
40%
30%
70%
78%
20%
10%
0%
Plans for redeveloping Plans for developing
existing infrastructure
new infrastructure
Development Type
For this sample:
– The largest ports (>25 million tons per year) are less
likely to have plans for new infrastructure development.
Information Used in Port Planning
100%
90%
80%
15%
30%
Percent
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
85%
70%
20%
10%
0%
Use "historical"
information
Use "generallyaccepted" guidance
Information Type
Percent No
Percent Yes
Respondent Climate Change Perceptions
For this sample:
25
Number No
15
Number Yes
10
– West Coast
respondents are
less likely to
believe climate
change is
occurring.
5
20
Count
– 81% believe
climate change
is occurring,
regardless of its
cause.
30
22
5
3
3
0
Overall Sample
West Coast Ports
Believe climate change is occurring
(regardless of cause)
– Respondents from ports that do not use generally
accepted guidance in planning are less likely to
believe climate change is occurring.
Respondent Climate Change Perceptions
For this sample:
25
20
Count
– 52% anticipate
an effect at their
ports if climate
changes occur
in next 50 years.
30
13
Number No
15
Number Yes
10
14
– West Coast
respondents are
less likely to
believe their
ports would be
affected.
1
5
6
0
Overall
Sample
6
0
West Coast Inland Rivers &
Ports
Great Lakes
Ports
Anticipate effect at port if climate
changes occur in next 50 years
– Inland Rivers and Great Lakes respondents are more
likely to believe their ports would be affected.
Respondent Climate Change Perceptions
70%
63%
61%
Used in
Planning
60%
Count
50%
Not used in
Planning
40%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
0%
Historical Information
Generally Accepted Guidance
Percent respondents who anticipate an effect at port's
location if climate changes occur in next 50 years
For this sample:
– Respondents at ports that do not use historical
information in planning are less likely to anticipate
climate change effects at their locations.
– Respondents at ports that do not use generally
accepted guidance in planning are less likely to
anticipate climate change effects at their locations.
Planning for Climate Change
30
25
Count
20
18
15
6
10
5
9
8
Overall Sample
Believe location would
be affected
Number No
Number Yes
0
Have ports considered the potential
impacts of climate change?
For this sample:
– 33% of ports have considered potential impacts of
climate change.
– The majority of ports that believe their locations would
be affected if climate changes occur in next 50 years
have considered potential impacts.
Perceptions about Climate Change
For those in this
sample who think
climate change is
occurring:
25
20
7
– Most (86%) think
that climate change
due to human
activities is
reversible.
15
Count
– The majority think it
is due mostly to
natural cycles with
some influence from
human activities.
10
14
5
0
1
Believe climate change is occurring
Perceived causes of climate change
Mostly human influences, some natural cycles
Mostly natural cycles, some human influences
All natural cycles
Implications for Transportation
Planners and Policy Makers
Planning horizons for ports are much
shorter than climate change horizons.
Most ports indicated plans for
infrastructure development, across
regions and sizes.
Historical information and generally
accepted design guidance are
broadly used by ports.
Implications for Transportation
Planners and Policy Makers
Most respondents believe climate change…
– is occurring.
– is at least partly due to human activities.
– is due more to natural cycles than human
activities.
– due to human activities is reversible.
Implications for Transportation
Planners and Policy Makers
About half of port respondents believe
their location would be affected by
climate changes if they happen in the
next 50 years.
– Of these, a small majority are taking at
least initial steps to plan for climate change.
Ports with respondents who believe
climate change will not affect their
locations are not planning for it.
Implications for Transportation
Planners and Policy Makers
Accurate and reliable historical information
and general guidance will help promote
sound planning and development practices
by port decision-makers.
Support for climate change research and
policies may be regionally dependent.
Limitations
Limited sample size:
– Inability to investigate correlations in response.
– Inability to make strong inferences for the U.S.
port industry.
Unequal responses across regions:
– Fewer East Coast, more Gulf Coast ports.
Further questions…
Do the results apply to a broader sample?
Are perceptions changing over time?
How are ports planning for climate change?
Are there spatial and social considerations that
should be investigated?
How is climate change being accounted for by
design and consulting firms?
What are planning perspectives of
other industries?