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CLIMATE Do we know where we are headed? Karen A. Harbert Institute for 21st Century Energy http://www.energyxxi.org 29 May 2009 1 Where We Are: U.S. GHG Emissions U.S. net GHG gross emissions are about 6 gigatons a year Gross GHG emissions about 7 gigatons. U.S. GHG emissions account for about 15% of global emissions (based on IPCC estimate of 49 GtCO 2004). Total U.S. global Net GHG Emissions: 1990 toin2007 2 eq. U.S. net GHG emissions were 3% lower in 2007 compared to 2000. 7,000 6,000 HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 Nitrous Oxides Methane Net Carbon Dioxide MMTCO2eq 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: EPA , Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2007 (Draft) 2 Where We Are: Recent Performance Comparable to International Peers Changes in Net GHG Emissions 2000-2006 for 17 Major Economies France -6.3% USA -3.0% UK -2.9% Germany -1.7% EU-15 -0.8% Japan -0.6% Italy 0.1% EU-27 0.1% Australia 4.8% 3.9% Russia South Korea ** 6.4% Mexico ** 6.8% Brazil ** 9.2% South Africa ** 9.4% Indonesia ** 9.6% India ** 9.9% Canada 21.3% China ** -10% 45.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/ national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.php); IEA Online Energy Services <http://data.iea.org/ieastore/statslisting.asp>. ** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used. 50% 3 U.S. Mandatory Programs Since 2001 Eight Most Significant Sectors Renewable Fuels* +500% by 2022; 36 billion gallons; ~15% supply Vehicle Fuel Economy* +40% by 2020; 35 mpg; avoid 8.5 billion gallons a year; ~5% supply Lighting Efficiency* +25-30% by 2012-2014; +70% by 2020 Appliance Efficiency* +45 new standards Federal Government Operations* (bigger than most countries) 30% Efficiency and 20% Renewable Fuel Use by 2015 Accelerated HCFC Phaseout More reduction than Kyoto; includes developing countries Renewable Power 26 States; 500% increase to date; Federal government help Building Codes Federal government promoting new 30% model code * Preliminary estimates show that, combined, these mandates will prevent about 5 gigatons of GHG emissions through 2030. 4 Obama Administration Emission Reduction Goals Mid-Term Goal: Cut U.S. emissions to 14% below 2005 level To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈1 gigaton of GHG emissions by 2020. Long-Term Goal: Cut emissions 83% below 2005 level To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈6 to 7 gigatons of GHG emissions by 2050. If the U.S. achieved an 80% reduction in emissions in 2050: U.S. GHG emissions intensity would decline from about 0.65 to ≈0.04 metric tons CO2 eq. per constant $1,000 GDP. U.S. GHG emissions per capita would decline from about 24 tons CO2 eq. in 2005 to 2.8 tons in 2050. Is such a transition of energy systems over a 40 year timeframe possible without severe economic harm? And just how big is a gigaton of CO2? Sources: EIA, AEO 2009, Year-to-Year Table 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/aeotab_18.xls>; EIA Greenhouse Gas Inventory, Table 5 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xls>; U.S. Census, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 <http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/np2008-t1.xls>. 5 How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2? Today’s Technology Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton per Year of Mitigation Coal-Fired Power Plants Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate generating capacity Geologic Sequestration Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (1.0 MtCO2/year) Nuclear Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1.0-GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF) Electricity from Landfill Gas Projects Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3-MW projects at nonregulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric generation Efficiency Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg (12,000 miles per year) Wind Energy Install 127,500 wind turbines (2.0-MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coalfired power plants without CO2 capture and storage Solar Photovoltaics Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv. eff’cy). Biomass Fuels from Plantations Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa (about 200 million acres) CO2 Storage in New Forest. Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast) 1Gigaton = 1 billion metric tons. Based on current technology and U.S. data. Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.) 2 6 Some Perspective: Estimated U.S. Emissions Intensity & Emission per Capita in 2050 An estimated 0.04 metric tons CO2 eq. per $1,000 of GDP in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2 emissions intensities of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Guinea, Laos, Uganda in 2005. An estimated 2.8 metric tons per capita in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2 emissions per capita of Armenia, Gabon, Jordan, North Korea, Turkey in 2005. Countries With CO2 Emissions Intensities <0.1 Metric Tons per $1,000 of GDP in 2005. Countries With per Capita CO2 Emissions >2.5 and <3.5 Metric Tons in 2005. Central African Republic Armenia Haiti Burundi Belize Rwanda French Polynesia Malawi Jordan Ethiopia Turkey Nepal Korea, North Bangladesh Cook Islands Burkina Faso Uganda Mauritius Lesotho Mongolia Guinea U.S. 2050 Laos Grenada Mali U.S. 2050 Syria Afghanistan Algeria Cambodia Cuba 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 Metric Tons CO2 per Constant $1,000 of GDP (Using PPP) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Metric Tons per Capita Sources: EIA, World Carbon Intensity—World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels Using Purchasing Power Parities, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1pco2.xls>; EIA, World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls>. NOTE: Data for countries other than U.S. includes CO2 from fossil fuel combustion only. The inclusion of other GHGs would raise these figures only modestly, if at all. 7 Energy vs. Climate Change: Where is public opinion? A January 2009 Pew Research Center poll found that climate change ranked dead last among 20 issues of concern to Americans. Energy ranked number 6. A March 2009 Gallup poll found a majority of Americans believe the seriousness of global warming is either correctly portrayed in the news or underestimated. However, 41% now say it is exaggerated, the highest level of public skepticism in more than a decade of Gallup polling on the subject. 8 9 Impact of Carbon Prices Energy on Costs Coal, which has a high carbon content, will be hit hardest. Additional Cost to Average 2008 Energy Prices Under Different Carbon Prices (Percent Increase) 500 $100 per Metric Ton 450 $50 per Metric Ton Percent Increase 400 $20 per Metric Ton 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Imported Crude Oil Distillate Fuel Oil (Residential) Low Sulfur Diesel Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Residual Fuel Coal (Electric Natural Gas Oil Power) (Residential) Natural Gas (Electric Power) Electricity (Ave Price All Sectors) Sources: EIA, Documentation for Emissions of GHGs 2006, Table 6-1 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/documentation/pdf/0638(2006).pdf>; EIA AEO 2009, Supplemental Table 128, <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/suptab_128.xls>; EIA AEO 2009, Year-by-Year Reference Tables 8, 12, 13, 15 & 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>. NOTE: Uses average prices in 2008 as a baseline. 10 Why Engage Developing Countries? Most Future Emissions Will Come From Developing Countries: Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region 1990 - 2050 Over 80% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE Coming Transition in Emissions Asia. from 1990 to 2050 45 Gigatons CO2 40 35 OECD 30 Non-OECD 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 2005 2015 2030 Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. 2050 11 Global CO2 Emissions—Scale of Reductions Needed to Achieve a 50% Reduction by 2050 To halve energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 relative to 2005 would require reductions/avoidances in excess of 45 gigatons—equivalent to over 7 times current U.S. emissions. 60 Energy Emissions, Gt CO2 /yr CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr) 70 61.7 Gt/yr 50 +132% -78% 40 30 20 ` 26.6 Gt/yr 10 13.3 Gt/yr 0 Global Emissions 20052005 Emissions 20502050 Reference Global Reference Emissions Emissions 2050 Global50% Global Emissions CO2 Emissions 2005 at 50% of 2005 Emissions Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. 12 To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050, Need Significant Reductions from Developing Countries Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3 OECD Countries 50 Non-OECD Countries OECD Emissions at “0” 2050 Reference Emissions OECD Emissions at 20% 2005 Emissions OECD Emissions at 50% 2005 Emissions Emissions, Gt CO2 /yr COEnergy 2, Emissions (Gt CO2/yr) 40 30 20 -69% 2005 -75% 2005 -65% -84% 10 -86% -100% 0 OECD 2050 2050 Non-OECD 2050 2050 OECD 2050 2050 Non2050 2050 Annex 2050 20502050 Annex 2050 Annex 2050 2050 Annex 2050 Reference OECD 2050 Non-OECD Reference Reference Emissions at -100% OECD Non-OECD OECD at - OECD I at -80% INon-OECD at -80% I at -50% OECD Emissions 100% Emissions Emissions Emissions Non-OECD I at -50% Emissions Reference Emissions Emissions Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. NOTE: Includes CO2 emissions from energy. 13 Scale of Changes in Global Power Sector to Achieve “50-by-50” Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to Additional Annual Investment in Electricity Sector (Compared to 2005 – 2050 Halve 2005toGlobal 2050: 2 Emissions Baseline) Halve CO 2005 Global CO2by Emissions by 2050: 2010 to2010 2050to 2050 Coal-Fired w/ CCS 35 500-MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants 20 500-MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants Gas-Fired w/ CCS Nuclear 32 1,000-MW Nuclear Plants Hydropower 1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity 100 50-MW Biomass Plants Biomass Wind: On-Shore 14,000 4-MW Turbines Wind: Off-Shore 3,750 4-MW Turbines 130 100-MW Geothermal Units Geothermal Photovoltaics 215 million m2 Concentrating Solar Power 80 250-MW CSP Plants 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 GW/year Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. 14 Scale of CO2 Storage 0.30 25 CO2 Storage Rate at Level 2 (≈550 ppm) 0.25 Gt CO2/yr 0.20 20 0.15 Gt CO2/yr 0.10 0.05 0.00 Today 15 By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yr may be required, ≈30 to 35x more than today. By the end of the century, approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may be required, over 400x more than today. 10 2020 5 Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv) MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a). Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research. 0 Today 2020 2050 2100 15 Scale of Changes in Global Transport Sector to Achieve “50-by-50” Change in Average Annual Vehicle Sales (Compared to Baseline) to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050: Average Annual Vehicle Sales: 2010 to 2050 2010 to 2050 (Millions Year) (Vehiclesper in Millions) Million Vehicles Per Year 100 H2 Fuel Cell Vehicles 80 Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Biofuel Flex-Fuel Vehicles 60 Gasoline & Diesel Hybrids Gasoline & Diesel Conventional 40 20 0 Baseline 2050 50-by-50 Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. 16 Principles for Climate Change Policy International Principles Place the U.S. on an equal competitive footing with the rest of the world. Set realistic and achievable goals that do not undermine economic growth; Ensure global participation, including binding commitments from large developing countries; Consider growing energy needs, circumstances, and resources in all countries; Ensure that mitigation actions by all parties are measurable, reportable, and verifiable; Recognize technology development and commerce as crucial prerequisites to achieving emission reductions; Protect intellectual property rights and the rule of law; Remove trade barriers to environmental goods and services 17 A Path Forward Involves … Progress in climate change technology to: create new, better, and less costly solutions facilitate means for change and a smooth transition Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy goods and services Protecting intellectual property rights Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration Developing a new international framework that is realistic, economically sustainable and environmentally effective 18