Download Climate Change and Energy: Issues and Prospect for

Climate Change and Energy:
Issues, Prospects and Challenges for
Sustainable Development in Nigeria
By
Dr J-F.K. AKINBAMI
Energy Technology and Management Division
Centre for Energy Research and Development
Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria
E-mail:[email protected]
GSM: +234-(0)803-719-5198
Presented at the
“CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP FOR HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES’ COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE MEDIA ”
HAMDALA HOTEL, KADUNA, MAY 21 -24, 2009
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of Rep Committe on Climate Change
and the Media
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OUTLINE
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Background
 Energy Issues
 Climate Change
 Sustainable Development
Key Mitigation Technologies & Practices
Relationship between Emissions Mitigation and SD
Effects of Climate Policy on other Factors/Sectors
Climate Change and Other Issues
Co-Benefits of Climate Action
Changing Development Paths
Opportunities and Challenges to Emissions Mitigation Technologies in
Nigeria
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Background - Energy

Energy is an essential input to a nation’s economic
growth and development. In Nigeria, energy plays
a dual role. In addition to being an essential input
to all economic activities, it is also the country’s
major foreign exchange earner. Increasing reliable
and adequate supply of energy will be needed to
support all the economic activities of the country
in the nation’s developmental programs to attain
an enviable standard of living for its citizens.
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Energy (Contd)

Expectedly, as a developing country,
historical energy consumption pattern
reveals an increasing trend as
evidenced by Figure 1. As energy
consumption is fundamental to
economic development, it is also a
precursor of environmental emissions.
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Energy (Contd)
16000000
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TOE
10000000
Year
Gasoline
Diesel
Av. Kero
Av. Spirit
Fuel Oil
Coal
Natural gas
Electricity
Figure 1: Final Energy Consumption in Nigeria 1981-2000
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Energy (Contd)
140
Million Tonne CO2
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Year
No Flare Reduction Target
Year 2008 Reduction Target
Figure 2: Baseline CO2 emission Trends
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Energy Contd
120
Baseline
100
Maximum Reduction
Million Tonnes/a
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
RESIDENTIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORT
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ELEC GENERATION
GAS FLARING
Figure 4: Major Contributors to CO2 Emissions
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Energy (Contd)

Presently, Nigeria’s energy supply system is
characterized by technical inefficiency and
gas flaring. In addition to these and as a
result of the expected increase in future
energy demand, there will be increased
greenhouse gas emissions which will also
increase the total build up of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere.
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Energy (Contd)

For example, CO2 emissions from the energy
system were 78 million tonnes (MTon) in 1980, 83
MTon in 1985, 90 MTon in 1990 and 98 MTon in
1995. This implied that between 1980 and 1995,
CO2 emissions increased at an annual average rate
of 1.5%. At this rate, CO2 emission would be 106,
114 and 123 MTon in 2000, 2005 and 2010
respectively. Hence measures to either mitigate the
emissions or sinks to absorb them need to be put
into the system.
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Energy (Contd)

The threat, climate change, posed by the
continued emission of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere calls for a global action
to combat it. Climate change has been
described by scientists, environmentalists
and politicians as a threat unprecedented in
human experience.
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Equivalent carbon dioxide

Equivalent CO2 (CO2e) is the
concentration of CO2 that would cause
the same level of radiative forcing as a
given type and concentration of
greenhouse gas. Examples of such
greenhouse gases are methane,
perfluorocarbons and nitrous oxide.
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Equivalent carbon dioxide
(Contd)

Carbon dioxide equivalency is a quantity
that describes, for a given mixture and
amount of greenhouse gas, the amount of
CO2 that would have the same global
warming potential (GWP), when measured
over a specified timescale (generally, 100
years). Carbon dioxide equivalency thus
reflects the time-integrated radiative forcing,
rather than the instantaneous value
described by CO2e.
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Background – Climate Change

The various definitions of climate change in the
literature presuppose a definite change in climate
which may be due to both anthropogenic activities
and natural variability and this change refers to
statistically significant variations in climate that
persist for an extended period typically of at least
decades. This change also includes shifts in the
frequency and magnitude of sporadic weather
events as well as the slow continuous rise in global
mean surface temperature (Swedish
Environmental Protection Agency, 2002).
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Climate Change (Contd)

The IPCC in its 1995 Climate Change
Report concluded that there was a
“discernible human influence” on the
earth’s climate. This gives an indication
that the observed “human influence” can be
thoroughly examined with a view to
curtailing and containing their negative
impacts on the climate.
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Climate Change (Contd)

The threat of global climate change has
been described as the biggest environmental
challenge of the 21st century. It is hard to
conceive of a more difficult policy issue to
analyse than global climate change. The
climatological dynamics are mindnumbingly complex, while the scope of the
policy issues raised, encompassing
economic, ethical, social, and even political
aspects, seem limitless.
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Climate Change (Contd)
 Views
on global climate change
range from doom sayers who
predict, and perhaps even look
forward to, humanity's eventual
demise; to nay sayers who either
deny the existence of global
climate change or even welcome it.
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Climate Change (Contd)

However, climate change policy framework
should be realistic and should form an
integral part of the national development
planning process in every country. Such
framework will focus on policies at the
national level to be implemented for the
purpose of ameliorating the negative
impacts of global climate change.
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Background - Sustainable
Development

While the World Commission on
Environment and Development (WCED)
through the well-known Brundtland
Commission Report provided the baseline
conceptualization of sustainable
development, 2 of the many interpretations
of this concept predominate the literature.
These are:
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Sustainable Development (Contd)
Wealth Approach
This recognizes SD as that which fully
appreciates the value of natural and built capital
so that the next generation can inherit a stock of
assets no less than those inherited by the
preceding generation and thereby maintain
intergenerational equity.
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Sustainable Development (Contd)
Mosaic Approach
This breaks SD into 3 main components:
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Ecological sustainability which requires that development is
compatible with the maintenance of ecological processes
 Economic sustainability which requires that development be
economically feasible and,
 Social sustainability which requires that development be
socially acceptable
Hence SD is viewed in terms of ecological, economic and social
sustainability
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Sustainable Development (Contd)

Consumption of fossil fuels contributes
significantly to the building up of GHG
emissions globally

Hence mitigation options in the energy sector
will play a crucial role in the overall climate
change strategy.
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Key Mitigation Technologies and Practices

Currently commercially available
 Improved
supply and distribution
efficiency in the Power sector, & Oil &
Gas Sector
 Fuel switching from coal to gas
 Nuclear power
 Renewable heat and power (hydropower,
solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy
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Key Mitigation Technologies and Practices
contd…

Projected to be commercialized by
2030
 Carbon
capture and storage (CCS) for
gas
 Biomass and coal-fired electricity
 Advanced nuclear power
 Advanced renewable energy, including
ocean energy, concentrating solar and
solar PV.
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Two-Way Relationship between Mitigation
and Sustainable Development
A.
Climate policy can have positive or
negative effects on other factors
¯
¯
B.
--Ancillary benefits of co-benefits
CC  SD
Non-climate policies can influence
GHG emissions as much as specific
climate policies
¯
¯
--Requires mainstreaming climate change in
decision-making.
SD  CC
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Effects of Climate Policy on other
Factors
CC  SD
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Climate Change and Other Issues
Climate Change is a crosscutting issue/phenomenon
cutting across all sectors of an
economy
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Examples of Side-effects of Climate Mitigation
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Sustainable Development

Co-benefits of Climate Action
(Country-specific)
 Reduced
local air pollution
 Better housing
 Greater energy security
 Energy access
 Balance of trade benefits
 Biodiversity benefits – with good forestry
policy.
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Changing Development Paths
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Climate policy alone will not solve the climate problem
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Mitigation is not just an environmental problem
Making development more sustainable can make major
contribution to mitigation
Need multiple actors involved

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Economic problem
Energy problem, forestry, housing, water, etc…
Decision about macroeconomic policy, multilateral development
bank lending, insurance practices, electricity market reform,
energy security and forest conservation, for example, which may
seem unrelated to climate policy, can significantly reduce
emissions.
Government, business (private sector), civil society,
communities, families and individuals.
At all scales – international, national, regional, provincial,
local
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria
1.
Energy Efficiency

Considerable scope for more rational energy use in
Nigeria

Both supply side and demand side efficiency is low,
e.g.

Supply side: High T & D losses >30%

Demand side: Boiler efficiencies in most
industries are low.

For instance a combustion analysis of boilers in a
beverage plant in SW Nigeria revealed that it was
possible to obtain a fuel saving of about 12% by
improving boiler efficiency alone. This would
reduce the total energy cost of the plant by at
least 1.1%/ annum and also cut down CO2
emissionsCapacity
by atBuilding
least
1071
tons/year
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in
Nigeria (Contd)
 Most
industries are sited in
Metropolitan and Cosmopolitan
environment such as Lagos State
 Statistics reveal that 55% of the
total national petroleum products
consumption takes place in Lagos
State particularly in the transport
sector. This can be greatly reduced
through optimal use of available
transport modes in the State
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies
in Nigeria
(contd.)
2. Fuel switching

Huge gas reserve provides ample
opportunity to switch to lower carbon fuel

Challenges are:
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the investment needed for gas infrastructure
institutional framework for the industry
pricing of gas, etc.
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies
in Nigeria
(contd.)
 Elimination
of flaring will lead to
annual GHG emission reduction of
about 24.7 million ton of CO2
equivalent.
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies
in Nigeria
(contd.)
3. Renewable Energy
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Opportunity for decentralized energy
system exist e.g. Small Hydropower
(SHP), Solar for water pumping, lighting
etc., Wind Energy.
Initial cost of devices is high but life cost
is competitive with other energy sources.
Integrated policy and vigorous
implementation strategy is needed to
facilitate rapid diffusion of RE in the
nation’s energy mix.
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria
(contd.)
Proposed strategy for sustainable forest-energy-environment interactions in
Nigeria
Technology option
Time
Region
Targeted sector/income grp
 Small-scale Hydropower
LT All regions with available resources
Rural
 Improved Fuelwood Stove
ST
All regions
Urban Poor & Rural
Populace
 Improved Kerosene Stove
ST- MT All regions
Urban
 Biogas
MT
All regions
Rural & Urban
Poor
 Coal Briquette
MT
All regions especially coal deposits
exist Urban
 Solar PV
MT – LT All regions
Rural sector &
Medium/High income
Urban Dwellers
 A mixture of agroforestry,
afforestation and forest protection ST – LT
All regions

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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria
(contd.)

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Industrial Energy Efficiency
Improved Cookstoves
Building Energy Efficiency
Transportation Energy
 Mass Transit – BRT in Lagos State
 Metroline
 Intermodal Transportation
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Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria
(contd.)

Energy Generation

Decentralised Energy Generation
Solar PV
 Small Hydropower
 Wind Power
 Biodiesel using Jatropha Plant
 Waste to Power Production – eg Oko-Baba Sawmill
in Lagos State, Ijebu Ode, Ijebu North, Ijebu North
East and Odogbolu Local Government Areas of
Ogun State, Rice Husk in Rice Mills in Ebonyi State
 Biogas

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Essential Documents on Energy
Issues in the Country
Some of the Documents needing the attention
of the House with respect to Energy & CC
 National Energy Policy
 Renewable Energy Master Plan
 National Energy Master Plan
 Petroleum Bill still being debated in the
House
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Suggested Way Forward
Existing Institution to address Climate Change
 While it can be said that there are existing
institutions to address climate change . The
Federal Ministry of Housing and Environment is a
policy making body which makes it inadequate to
also be the implementing body to address issues
concerning climate change in the country, even
though there ia a climate change desk in the
ministry. The National Designated Office on
climate change is presently like a baby without
adequate parenting making it difficult to function
properly.
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Suggested Way Forward (Contd)

A National Climate Change Commission which is
established and backed by an Act of the National
Assembly, with well defined objectives and
functions and adequate funding will be able to
stand and address the issues of climate change
and global warming and global cooling as they
relate to Nigeria, West Africa sub-region, the
African continent and the rest of the world. This I
know the Hon House has started working on.
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Issues to be addressed by the
Commission

As is well known, climate change has many
implications for national development and
global futures: for sustainability, equity and
growth. The effects of climate change
permeate through all the sectors of a
nation’s economy. Much current debate and
policy action focuses on resolving future
problems through the'mainstreaming' of
climate change into development initiatives
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Issues to be addressed by the
Commission (Contd)
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As the focal point on all issues relating to climate change in
the country, some of the issues that the Commission will
address include (but not exhaustive):
a) Identifying the various causal agents of climate change
in the country
b) How to mitigate the causal agents of climate change
and its consequences
c) Identification of the degree of susceptibility and
vulnerability of people groups and regions and
communities in the country to climate change and its
consequences
d) How various people groups, regions and communities
can adapt to climate change and its consequences
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Issues to be addressed by the
Commission (Contd)
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e) Generate and establish a National Databank on
climate change and its consequences for the
country
f) Generate empirical data for policy and decision
making on climate change in the country
g) Coordinate inter-agency and inter-ministerial
cooperation on mitigating and adapting to climate
change and its consequences
h) Create awareness on climate change and its
consequences to the policy and decision makers in
both public and private sectors as well as to the
general populace right down to the rural settings
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Issues to be addressed by the
Commission (Contd)

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i) Role of curriculum development in the educational
sector to introduce climate change mitigation and
adaptation techniques and strategies into our educational
system so as to inculcate a lifestyle of climate change
mitigation and adaptation into our national psyche
j) Roles of various tiers of government (local, state, federal)
and even urban and rural communities and regions in
climate change mitigation and adaptation
k) Sub-regional, regional and other international
cooperation to mitigate climate change and its
consequences
l) Promote research, development, demonstration and
dissemination (R,D,D&D) on climate change mitigation
and adaptation science, technologies, strategies and
techniques
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ACTION NOW!!!

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Action must be taken NOW! NOW!! AND
NOW!!!
To reduce the anthropogenic activities that
enhance the negative effects of CC
To put in place necessary structures and
infrastructures for effective adaptation to
both current and future impacts of CC
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Thank you.
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