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Africa Adaptation Programme
Bio-physical determinants of climate
variability and change as the basis for
addressing, vulnerability to climate
variability and change
Joseph Intsiful
AAP DIMC Manager
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Content
•
Background – Our earth climate system
•
Observed and predicted trends in climate extremes
and implications for development and of adaptation
planning
•
Bio-physical assessment of current vulnerability example with Accra using FAO NewLoClim
•
Summary and Conclusion
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Background – Our earth climate system
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
What is the Climate System?
• The complicated system consisting of various
components, including the dynamics and composition of
the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the
land surface and its features, the many mutual
interactions between them, and the large variety of
physical, chemical and biological processes taking place
in and among these components.
• Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a
whole, including a statistical description of its variations
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Our earth Climate System
Africa Adaptation Programme
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
What drives the Climate?
Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Concept of Climate Variability
and Radiative Forcing
Changes in certain components of the climate system perturb
the radiative energy budget of system, i.e. provide a radiative
forcing. Examples include:
• the concentration of radiatively active species
• solar irradiance
• changes affecting radiation absorbed by the surface
Human induced perturbations include:
• composition of the atmospheric gases
• increases in atmospheric aerosols
• land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation,
afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Natural variability of climate
Africa Adaptation Programme
External forcings:
• solar radiation
• volcanic eruptions - aerosols source into the
atmosphere
Internal climate variability:
• ENSO
• NAO and other leading modes of variability
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Human-induced climate variations
Africa Adaptation Programme
• Perturbations of the atmospheric composition - the
enhanced greenhouse effect
• Effect of aerosols:
• direct effect (scattering of incoming solar
radiation)
• indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of
clouds)
• Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation,
reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Observed and predicted trends in climate extremes and
implications for development and of adaptation
planning
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards
&
their
Impacts
in
Africa
(1980-2007)
Africa Adaptation Programme
Number of disaster events - 1980-2007 (RA I)
Earthquake
Drought 3%
Epidemic
11%
37%
Wind Storm
9%
Wild Fires
1%
Volcano
1%
Slides
1%
Insect Infestation
4%
Flood
32%
Extreme
Temperature
1%
96 % of events
99 % of casualties
50 % of economic losses are
related to hydro-meteorological
hazards and conditions
Source: The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
Economic losses - 1980-2007 (RA I)
Casualties - 1980-2007 (RA I)
Drought
19.6%
Flood
2%
Epidemic
18%
Drought
79%
Wave / Surge
0.9%
Wind Storm
11.8%
Flood
18.5%
Earthquake
48.9%
Earthquake
1%
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Impacts of Climate-Related
Extremes on the Rise !
Hazard intensity and
frequency increasing linked to
climate variability and change!
Energy
Transportation
Water Resource
Management
Intensity
Strong Wind
People
Agriculture
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Urban areas
Vulnerability and
exposure on the rise !
Drought
Need for long-term
planning to manage
multi-sectoral risks
Heatwaves
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Frequency
Downscaling Challenges
Africa Adaptation Programme
… from a global climate model (GCM) grid
to the point of interest.
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
High Resolution Climate Models
Africa Adaptation Programme
Requirement for simulating extreme events e.g. tropical cyclones
© Crown copyright
Met Office
Supporting
Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Nature of the Problem
Africa Adaptation Programme
• Over 88 % are challenged in delivering climate products
and services
• 92% lack appropriate software
• 96% need upgrading of operational infrastructure
• 92% need training on climate products and services
• 85% say lack of effective co-ordination with other
agencies impacts negatively on operations
Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey)
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Short to medium
term weather
forecasts
•
•
Data and Information for
Adaptation Planning
Seasonal to interannual climate
forecasts
Decadal
climate trend
analysis
Climate
change
scenarios
Next hour to
10 days
Season to year
Decade
Long term
climate change
Short-term
planning
Emergency
Preparedness
• Medium-term
operational
planning
• Risk assessment
and management
• Long-term
strategic
planning
• Infrastructures
planning,
retrofitting
• Land zoning
International
negotiations with
national policy
implications
Decision-making Timelines
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Bio-physical assessment of current vulnerability example with Accra using FAO NewLoClim
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Climate variables
Evap: Greeen; Rain:Red
Sunshine: Hours(B),Fract(R), length(G)
Temp: Max(B),Mean(R), Min(G)
Wind: Greeen; Vap Press:Red
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Vegetation Period
Africa Adaptation Programme
Method Nearest Neighbour
Nr.
Total
Type
Length Begin
Begin
End
End
Humid 1 Humid 1 Humid 1 Humid 1 Humid 1
Days
Date
Day
Date
Day
Length [Days]
Begin [Date]
Begin [Day]End [Date]End [Day]
1
2
3
125 24-Mar
83 26-Jul
207
69 6-May
126 13-Jul
194
2
2
2
40 5-Sep
248 14-Oct
287
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Current Climate Analysis
Africa Adaptation Programme
Climatic Information for Accra
Longitude: -0.16°
Latitude: 5.6°
Altitude: 60m
Koeppen Class: BSh
B = Arid Climate
S = Steppe
h = hot
Budyko Climate: Steppe
Radiation index of Dryness: 2.083
Budyko Evaporation : 730 mm/year
Budyko Runoff :
81 mm/year
Budyko Evaporation : 90 %
Budyko Runoff :
10 %
Aridity: dry subhumid
Aridity Index: 0.58
Moisture Index:
-42 %.
DeMartonne Index:
22
Precipitation Deficit:
597 mm/year
Climatic net primary production: 1249
g(DM)/m2/year,
NPP(Temperature):
2590
g(DM)/m2/year
NPP(Precipitation): 1249 g(DM)/m2/year
NPP is precipitation limited.
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
Africa Adaptation Programme
Summary & Conclusion
Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa