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November 27, 2012 Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Kevin Schaefer Ted Schuur Dave McGuire Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Focus Discussion on Report • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) • Nov 2012 at Doha Conference of Parties (CoP) • Authors – – – – – Coordinator: Ron Witt Kevin Schaefer Hugues Lantuit Vladimir E. Romanovsky Edward A. G. Schuur • http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Impact of Thawing Permafrost on Global Climate • ~1700 Gt of carbon in permafrost as frozen organic matter • Thawing permafrost will release CO2 and methane into atmosphere Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost The Permafrost Carbon Feedback • Amplifies surface warming • Irreversible • Emissions for centuries Projected annual permafrost emissions for A1B scenario Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Estimates of Permafrost Fluxes Study Permafrost Carbon Emissions (Gt C) 2100 2200 2300 Uncertainty Schneider von Deimling et al. (2012)a 63 (82) Koven et al. (2011)a Schuur et al. (2009) a,b Schaefer et al. (2011) a a CO2 380 (493) 34% 62 (80) 302 (392) nac na 11% 85 (110) na na 15% 104 (135) 190 (246) na 34% equivalent calculated assuming 2.7% of total emissions is methane (Schuur et al. 2011) and a global warming potential of 33 (Shindell et al. 2009) b calculated from emission rates in the paper c not available Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Impact on Climate Change Treaty • 2°C warming target • Account for permafrost emissions • AR5 Projections don’t include permafrost emissions • Temperatures higher with feedback • Emissions targets may be too high • Risk overshooting 2°C warming target Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Temperature Projections 4th Assessment Report Recommendation 1: Special IPCC report on permafrost emissions • IPCC special assessment report – Future permafrost degradation – Permafrost CO2 and methane emissions – Projections with permafrost carbon feedback • Complement current projections • Support negotiation of emissions targets Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Recommendation 2: Create National permafrost monitoring networks • Issue: Current networks not adequate • Take over TSP/CALM – increase funding – standard measurements – expand coverage • All countries, especially Russia, Canada, China, United States Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Recommendation 3: Plan for adaptation • Issue: No plans to address infrastructure impacts • Nations should develop adaptation Plans – Identify at-risk infrastructure – Evaluate risks, costs, mitigation • All countries, especially Russia, Canada, China, United States Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Breakout Objectives • How to implement recommendations? 1) Special IPCC Assessment 2) Nationalize CALM and TSP 3) Adaptation Plans • Focus on (1) • International Permafrost Association will focus on (2) and (3) • All suggestions welcome Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Questions to consider • • • • • How to make special assessment a priority? Who should we talk to? Which agencies should be involved? How should science community be organized? What should the special assessment include? Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Thank you Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Acknowledgements • Project Coordinator: Ron Witt, UNEP • Authors – – – – Kevin Schaefer, University of Colorado Hugues Lantuit, Alfred Wegener Institute Vladimir E. Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks Edward A. G. Schuur, University of Florida • Full report: http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Permafrost is permanently frozen ground • Occurs in 24% of Northern Hemisphere land Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Permafrost has begun to thaw Active Layer Active layer thickness increasing Permafrost Permafrost temperatures rising Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Permafrost will continue to thaw Projection of active layer thickness for A1B scenario year Active Layer Thickness (cm) Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost Ecosystems Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost Infrastructure