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What is happening in the European Union on climate change? Artur Runge-Metzger European Commission European Commission: DG Environment 1. European Union – present situation European Commission: DG Environment The EU’s projected progress towards its Kyoto Commitments 110 108 106 104 EU-25 existing measures EU-25 additional measures EU-15 emissions 102 100 EU-15 existing measures EU-15 additional measures EU-15 target (Kyoto) 98 96 Business as usual 94 Linear target path 92 Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks 2010 2005 2000 1995 90 1990 base year emissions=100 EU-25 emissions European Commission: DG Environment The EU’s share of greenhouse gas emissions Figure 1: Projected development of greenhouse gas emissions in different regions of the world Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents 80 70 60 50 Rest of World 40 Other annex 1 30 EU 20 10 0 1990 2050 Source: Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in the UNFCCC process up to 2025, CNRS/LEPII-EPE, RIVM /M NP, ICCS-NTUA, CES-KUL (2003). European Commission: DG Environment Energy mix, EU-15, business as usual European Commission: DG Environment Europeans are feeling the ‘heat’ Europe has warmed more than the global average, with a 0.95 °C increase since 1900. Temperatures in winter have increased more than in summer. The warming has been greatest in the most northern latitudes and the Iberian Peninsula. From 1990 to 2100, the global average temperature is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C and 2–6.3 °C for Europe. European Commission: DG Environment The extreme summer 2003 could become normal in a few decades only Average temperature for June July August 2003: Observations ( + ) simulation with scenario A2 2003 Source: Meteo France European Commission: DG Environment 2. Selected EU policies and actions European Commission: DG Environment European Commission: DG Environment EU climate policies: The ‘broadbrush’ overview Kyoto agreed US withdraws Marrakech Accords Kyoto in force US EU 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st commitment period Monitoring Decision ECCP I EU ETS EU ETS Directive Linking Directive Registries Regulation Monitoring, Reporting Verification Guidelines ECCP II Sectoral studies Preparation Negotiated In force Review European Commission: DG Environment European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) – engagement of social actors ECCP Principles Working groups WG Reports/ •integration •transparency •stakeholder consultation •group expertise •build consensus - P&M analysed ECCP Approach •reduction potential •cost-effective •cross-sectoral •time frame for implem. •ancillary effects Emissions trading Flexible mechanisms Energy supply Energy demand end-use equipment Transport Industry Fluorinated gasses Research Agriculture Sinks agr. soils Forestry sinks conclusions ECCP steering committee Commission action plan European Commission: DG Environment ECCP: Recently adopted domestic measures Cross-cutting issues • Directive on GHG emissions trading within the Community (Oct. 2003) • Linking project-based mechanisms to GHG emissions trading (Oct. 2004) • Decision for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol (Feb. 2004) Energy • • • • Directive Directive Directive Directive on on on on the promotion of renewable energy sources (Sept. 2001) taxation of energy products (Oct. 2003) energy performance of buildings (Jan. 2003) the promotion of co-generation (CHP) (Feb. 2004) Transport • Promotion of the use of bio-fuels for transport Agriculture (Biofuels, Cross compliance), Landfill Directive European Commission: DG Environment Emissions trading: EU is implementing a company-based scheme since 1.1.2005 CO2 emissions from energy intensive industry above specific capacity thresholds (45 – 50 % of EU CO2 emissions) Around 10,500 installations electricity generators heat & steam production mineral oil refineries ferrous metals: production & processing cement, lime glass, bricks and ceramics pulp & paper sector European Commission: DG Environment Use of Kyoto Mechanisms: Planned purchases by Member States (in addition to company use!) Million tonnes of CO2 eq. Austria 35.00 Belgium 42.00 Denmark 22.50 Finland At least 3.0 Ireland 18.50 Italy 198.00 Luxembourg 15.00 Netherlands 100.00 Spain 100.00 Sweden At least 5.0 Almost 520 Million tonnes of CO2eq (2008-2012) Allocated resources thus far: € 2.7 billion European Commission: DG Environment ECCP “push” policies: Development and demonstration of new technologies Research & Technology Development: 6th Framework Programme (5-yr): energy (€ 800 million), transport (€ 600 million), global change and ecosystems (€ 700 million) or more than € 420 mill p.a. Financial Perspectives 2007-2013 (state of negotiations): energy (€ 2.2 billion), transport (€ 4.1 billion), environment (€ 1.8 billion) or more than € 1.1 billion p.a. Technology Platforms: hydrogen and fuel cells, zero emission fossil fuel power plants Demonstration programmes: Intelligent Energy for Europe (e.g. ALTENER, SAVE, COOPENER, STEER) LIFE, LIFE+ Competitiveness and Innovation Programme (2007-2013, proposed) European Commission: DG Environment ECCP: Ongoing domestic legislative work…. Energy • Proposal for a framework directive on eco-efficiency requirements for energy-using products • Proposal for a Directive on energy end-use efficiency and energy services Transport • Proposal for improvements in infrastructure use and charging • Proposal on special tax arrangements for diesel fuel used for commercial purposes and on the alignment of excise duties on petrol and diesel fuel • Proposal for a regulation on the granting of Community financial assistance to improve the environmental performance of the freight transport system (Marco Polo I and II program) Products • Proposal for legislative action on fluorinated gases European Commission: DG Environment ECCP II long-term challenge: Making the EU fit for post-2012 Aviation – Start Nov. 2005 Legislative proposal Integrated approach on CO2 emissions of light duty vehicles – Start December 2005 Revised Community strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles (end 2006) Carbon dioxide capture and geological storage – start March 2006 (report June 2006) Legislative proposal (2007) Impacts and Adaptation – start April 2006 Green Paper on adaptation (November 2006) EU ETS Review – start after the summer break 2006 legislative proposal mid-2007 Sectoral studies – 2006-08: In-depth sectoral studies assessing emission potential and establishing marginal abatement costs groundwork for legislative proposals after 2008 European Commission: DG Environment 3. Building together another future European Commission: DG Environment The EU’s level of aspiration 2°C European Commission: DG Environment Deep reductions are required • • • • • Non-action is not a feasible option. The more action is postponed, the greater the risk of irreversible change Well below 550 ppm Global emissions likely to grow within next two decades and then reduce by at least 15 % but perhaps as much as 50 % by 2050 compared to 1990 Explore pathways for industrialised countries to reach cuts of 15 – 30 % by 2020, 60 – 80 % by 2050 compared to 1990 “Keeping the door open” strategy European Commission: DG Environment Reducing global emissions is affordable through global action 55 220 200 180 45 160 40 140 120 35 emissions 650 ppm emissions 550 ppm GDP reference GDP 650 ppm GDP 550 ppm 30 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 100 80 2040 60 2050 GDP (2000 value =100) GHG Emissions [GtCo2eq] 50 Reversing global emission trends by 2025 would reduce global GDP in 2025 by about 2.4 % compared to BAU while GDP would more than double – assuming gradual participation of all countries European Commission: DG Environment - negotiation space Five essential elements: 1. Build on Kyoto 2. Broaden participation 3. Include more sectors and all gases 4. Deploy and develop technologies 5. Adapt to the effects of residual climate change European Commission: DG Environment Whatever we decide, we must rise to the challenge: e.g. incremental finance required in the energy sector Total BAU investment: US$ 17 trillion incl. Universal Access to Electricity until 2030 Price tag for climatefriendly: + 15 % = US$ 2.6 trillion in 25 years (~ 0.3 % of global annual GDP); i.e. approximately US$ 100 billion per year of which ~ 50 % in developing countries (IBRD: US$ 20–120 billion) European Commission: DG Environment Whatever we decide, we must rise to the challenge: e.g. incremental finance required in the energy sector Total BAU investment: US$ 17 trillion incl. Universal Access to Electricity until 2030 Price tag for climatefriendly: + 15 % = US$ 2.6 trillion in 25 years (~ 0.3 % of global annual GDP); i.e. approximately US$ 100 billion per year of which ~ 50 % in developing countries (IBRD: US$ 20–120 billion) Annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) = US$ 100 billion (- but only US$ 6.2 billion for the energy sector) World Bank (2005): US$ 1.8 billion for the energy sector Global Environment Facility = US$ 1.7 billion over 14 years CDM: US$ 5-7 billion for 2008-2012 European Commission: DG Environment Creating international political momentum Platforms: UNFCCC G8, esp. Gleneagles Dialogue, IBRD Investment Framework, IEA Bilateral Summits (US, Russia, India, China, Japan…) Climate Change & Energy Partnerships (India, China, Russia…) Strengthen policy analysis and dialogue (e.g. BASIC, IEA…) US-led technology initiatives (CSLF, hydrogen,…) Instruments: Carbon Market, e.g. Clean Development Mechanism (€ 2.7 billion from MS, total 2.1 bn tonnes CO2eq by 2012 of which almost 90 % through CDM) Country Strategy-based funding (e.g. policy dialogues, EnergyEnvironment-Programs) New Public and Public/Private Partnership funding instruments: European Investment Bank/funding for CCS Research and Technology Development Funds European Commission: DG Environment http://europa.eu.int/ comm/environment/ climat/home_en.htm European Commission: DG Environment