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Climate Change & the UK Policy Response
David Muller, Vice Consul, Science and Technology
British Consulate General, Atlanta
UK Commitment
• “Climate Change is... the single most important issue that we
face as a global community”
Prime Minister Tony Blair April 27 2004
• “But frankly, we need to go beyond Kyoto. Science and
technology is the way. Climate change, deforestation and the
voracious drain on natural resources cannot be ignored.
Unchecked, these forces will hinder the economic development
of the most vulnerable nations first, and ultimately, all nations. We
must show the world that we are willing to step up to these
challenges around the world and in our own backyard”
Prime Minster to Congress July 18 2003
2
UK Policy Context
– NECESSARY
• Scientific Evidence
• Environmental Damage
• Energy Security
– ACHIEVABLE
• Targets and Achievements
• Portfolio Approach
• Technological Options
– AFFORDABLE
• Continued Economic Growth
• Costs of Inaction
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Is action NECESSARY?
Scientific Consensus - Statement by National
Academies
Statement by Eleven National Academies of Science (G8 plus
China, Brazil, India), 7 June 2005
– “it is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be
attributed to human activity”
– “the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently
clear to justify nations taking prompt action. It is vital that all nations
identify cost-effective steps that they can take now, to contribute to
substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas
emissions”
5
CO2 levels are already unprecedented in the last
400,000 years
CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and
Projections for Next 100 Years
700
Projected
(2100)
650
600
Vostok Record
IPCC IS92a Scenario
Law Dome Record
Mauna Loa Record
500
450
400
Current
(2001)
350
300
250
200
150
400,000
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300,000
200,000
Years Before Present
(B.P. -- 1950)
100,000
0
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
550
Recent impacts apparently due to human induced
climate change
• Hottest 10 years on record all
since 1991
• Extent of droughts and intensity
of rainfall increasing since 1970s
• Widespread melting of glaciers
• Loss of Arctic sea ice and melting
permafrost
• Rising sea levels
• Increased intensity of
hurricanes?
• Thames Barrier - used once pa in
1980, 24 times in 2000
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How much climate change can we accept?
• Science suggests need to stabilise global greenhouse gases at
maximum 550 parts per million (ppm) (Double pre-industrial
levels)
• Even 550ppm results in serious climate change and implies a
temperature increase of between 2 and 5 C.
• And this implies preventing the emission of about 7 Giga Tonnes
of Carbon (GtC)/year by 2050
8
Climate Change - the environmental imperative
• Climate change, if unchecked, will have dramatic impacts for human
welfare and natural eco-systems.
• with global average temperature up by a further 1 - 2 C (2050?) we
could expect to see
– Increased risks to ecosystems & species extinction
– Increased incidence of heat waves, floods and droughts
– Adverse impacts on human health e.g. increases in the potential
transmission of infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever
– Increased risk of famine
• with temperatures up a further 3 - 4 C (2080?)
– Ice-sheets at risk?
– Climate system instability?
– Disappearance of 1/3 to 1/2 of existing mountain glacier mass by 2100, with
implications for water supply to many cities
9
UK Energy Security
• The UK is currently a net exporter of
oil (to 2010) but has just become a
net importer of gas.
• The UK needs to take a strategic
approach to manage this transition
effectively.
140
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent
• demand for oil and gas is widely
projected to rise by 2020 whilst
domestic production is projected to
fall.
UK Oil and Gas Demand and Production
under Business as Usual Scenario
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
• Energy review announced to consider
progress and challenges
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Gas Demand
Oil Demand
10
Probable Production
• Gas
Source:
OilDTI
Probable
Production
2002
Is action ACHIEVABLE?
The UK’s strategic response to climate change
• COMMITMENT - To put UK on a path to 60% reduction in GHG
emissions
• CREDIBILTY - By putting in place concrete policies to achieve first steps
now
• LEADERSHIP - In building consensus around the need for multilateral
change and firm commitments to take action to reduce carbon emissions
within the framework of the UNFCC.
• CO-OPERATION - With other countries willing to make a 60%
commitment, on accelerating the development of low carbon
technologies, with developing countries on energy efficiency
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UK Targets & Achievements
Targets
• Kyoto: Emissions basket 12.5%
below 1990 levels by 2008-2010
• Domestic: CO2 emissions 20%
below 1990 levels by 2010
• Long term: CO2 emissions 60%
below 1990 levels by 2050
Achievements
• Annual UK GHG emissions down
15.3%
• But CO2 tougher, well down
overall but up 3% from 1997
(would have been up 8%)
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A Portfolio Approach
• Emissions Cap and Trade
– EU Emissions Trading Scheme
• Climate Change Levy
– Recycled to support energy efficiency & low carbon innovation
– Exemptions for renewables
• Renewables Obligation
– 10% by 2010, 15% by 2015, aiming for 20% by 2020
• Landfill Tax
– Can be offset against environmental projects
• Planning Policy
– Designed to promote and encourage development of renewables
• Transport Measures
– Fiscal measures, fuel efficiency, 5% biofuels obligation
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Technological Options & Energy Efficiency
Technological Options
–
–
–
–
Combined heat & power (co-gen)
Renewable sources – wind, tidal, biomass, solar
Nuclear? (UK is currently considering new nuclear build)
Carbon capture and storage
Energy Efficiency
– Around half of necessary CO2 reductions by 2020
– Surest most cost-effective way to achieve all of the UK’s energy
goals
– Simultaneously helps to reduce carbon emissions; improve energy
security; take people out of fuel poverty
– Will save UK households and businesses over $5.25Bn per year on
their energy bills by 2010
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Is action AFFORDABLE?
De-linking growth in GDP, Primary Energy
Consumption & Emissions
• UK annual emissions down by 15.3% to 2002
• UK economy grew by 36% between 1990 and 2002.
220
200
GDP
Index (1970=100)
180
160
120
Primary
energy
consumption
(Mtoe)
100
Mt Carbon
140
80
60
1970
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1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Cost of Inaction - Recent economic losses substantial
• European floods 2002
– 37 deaths
– $16bn direct costs
• European heat-wave 2003
– 26,000 deaths
– $13.5bn direct costs
• UK floods, autumn 2000
– Insurance pay-out $1.75bn
• UK hot summer of 1995
– Agriculture, water, retail,
insurance losses $1.75bn
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Climate Change and Local
Government
Climate Change and Local Government
• 75% of the world’s energy is consumed in cities and differences
made locally will make a large impact globally
London Initiatives
• Mayor has committed London to a 20% reduction of CO2 by
2010
• London Climate Change Agency – a municipally-owned entity
that will enter into partnerships with private industry to deliver low
and zero-carbon projects, services and technologies
• Other London policies include: Improved land management and
development, congestion charging, improved mass transit
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Conclusion
Conclusion
• Unrestrained climate change presents unacceptable risks
• Evidence is very strong with very broad scientific consensus
• Global control of greenhouse gas emissions essential to stabilise
concentrations at a safe level
• Need concerted research effort internationally to improve
understanding of impacts, response options, costs etc. Risks may
be greater than we think.
• UK experience and forecasts shows that the shift to a low carbon
economy is very affordable: opportunity not cost.
• ...NECESSARY, ACHIEVABLE, AFFORDABLE
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Contact Info:
David Muller – [email protected]
Natalie Pawelski – [email protected]