Download The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change at the Mega

Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change at the Mega-urban Scale
in South-East-Asia. Urban Environmental Planning Strategies for
Ho Chi Minh City´s Response to Climate Change.
1 Introduction and Problem Overview
Climate change is changing the traditional context of urban development planning and is
shaping the priorities of sustainability. The environmental dimension of spatial planning in
emerging megacities such as Ho Chi Minh City has become a strong rationale for
coordinating spatially well defined adaptation actions and integrating mitigation policies.
While urban development trends in HCMC are addressing both mitigation needs and the
rationale of adaptation to the effects of climate change, the main focus of combating climate
change impacts in the mega-urban region of HCMC has to be the practical implementation of
adaptation measures. Planned adaptation implies policy decisions and measures at the
urban-scale that facilitates the reduction of the adverse impacts of climate change. Further
however adaptation also possess the potential to realise new opportunities for urban
development planning, scoping planning issues and opportunities at different spatial scales
and highlighting the need to link global mitigation measures and local adaptation responses
at the urban scale.
For HCMC it creates the necessity to take climate change responses into account in spatial
planning practices. This will also lead to changes in the traditional administrative structures
that spatial planning is accustomed to. Since many of the main impacts of climate change
have a land-use or water-management dimension, a downscaled and spatially explicit urban
environmental planning information system can function as a switchboard for mitigation,
adaptation and sustainable development objectives. Currently there are large differences in
the way knowledge is produced, the analytical approaches that are used and the designed
urban and environmental planning strategies. The proposed sharing of a commonly accepted
spatial information base can engage the dialogue between stakeholders and scientists in
order to support the development of spatially explicit planning strategies that anticipate the
climate change risks at the mega-urban scale and contribute to sustainable and resilient
settlement structures for HCMC.
2 Climate change – Need for research on adaptation to climate change
In the emerging coastal mega-urban regions of Southeast Asia, climate change represents
one of the greatest challenges. Recently climate change and its future impacts on Asian
megacities in high-risk zones, such as the continent’s main river delta regions, have emerged
at the top of the international research agenda (CRUZ ET AL. 2007). Since then, international
policy agreements have been established to limit the emission of greenhouse gases.
Nevertheless, even if a reduction in these emissions is achieved, the time lag in the climatic
system will inevitably cause a substantial degree of climate change. The impacts of this
change are, however, uneven with inter-tropical, densely populated delta regions exposed to
rising sea levels among those expected to be hardest hit. Here unprecedented cooperation
and research is needed to identify the planning options available for adapting these regions
to changing climate, advancing and disseminating knowledge and understanding.
Spatial planning strategies which focus on the adaptation strategies to climate change
require information regarding future changes at a scale relevant to the area under
investigation. This necessitates spatially more explicit climate effect models that provide
useful information at both the regional and urban level, taking into account the many
uncertainties at these spatial levels.
Through the statistical downscaling of global climate models, the future impacts of global
change on South Vietnam using IPPC high emission scenarios have been predicted as
1
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
Sea Level Rise: Averaged presumed sea level rise by 2050, 18.5 cm, rising to 52.9 cm in
2100. While worst case scenarios are 33.4 cm by 2050 and 101.7 cm in 2100. According
to many international reviews on the potential impacts of sea level rise, Vietnam ranks
highly among the most affected countries (DASGUPTA ET. AL. 2007) (see table 1 below).
Temperature: Predicted to be 4.0 ºC to 4.5 ºC higher in 2100, relative to 1990 levels
Precipitation: An overall 5-10% increase is envisaged from high emission scenarios;
while during the rainy season a 10-20% increase is envisaged. During the dry season, a
decrease of 20% is foreseen.
Table 1: Sea level rise scenario’s for Vietnam (in centimetres)
IPPC Emission
Scenarios
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
11.6
17.3
24.4
33.4
44.4
57.1
71.1
86.1
101.7
Average 6.5
9.7
13.6
18.5
24.4
31.0
38.1
45.4
52.9
Low
3.9
5.6
7.6
10.0
12.6
15.2
17.8
20.3
High
High
A1FI
2.6
(Source: Tran Thuc; Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment)
Vietnam has a long history of coping with natural disasters and mitigating their effects in
many ways. However, the country must recognize that some impacts of global climate
change are unavoidable, and as such there is an urgent need at present to start adapting the
mega-urban regions to the current impacts of extreme weather events and the predicted
impacts of climate change with which they are likely to be confronted in the future (MONRE
2005). With more than half of Vietnam’s population now living in low elevation zones, coastal
urban settlements are becoming increasingly vulnerable (CAREW -REID 2008).
2.1 The Impacts of Climate Change on Ho Chi Minh City
Historically HCMC, as a densely built-up area in a low lying region, is sensitive to climatic
effects. It’s location in an estuarine area of the Dong Nai River system, with a high flow
volume, fifty kilometres from the South China Sea and northeast of the Mekong River Delta
contribute to this sensitivity (NGUYEN HUU NHAN 2006). This combination accumulates to a
high average level of physical and social vulnerability in most parts of HCMC. Due to its
geographic location this flood-prone metropolitan area will always face natural hazards.
However, vulnerabilities of lives and livelihood to climate-related environmental processes
are primarily the result of inadequate and unsustainable urban planning practices associated
with complex natural settings and societal structures.
For a densely populated and highly vulnerable mega-urban region such as HCMC, timely
adaptation planning to the unavoidable effects of climate change is necessary and essential.
Due to the high concentration of people, business, infrastructure and industry, HCMC
inherently is a hotspot for climate change impacts. Current and future climate impacts on the
urban area of HCMC include:
Sea level rise and tidal flooding,
Fluvial flooding,
Urban drainage flooding,
Building and infrastructure subsidence,
Heat and human comfort and health.
Some of these climate related impacts directly interact with the urban area of HCMC (e.g.
floods), whilst other impacts are acting more indirect (e.g. variation in heat waves and
precipitation patterns). Nevertheless, these climate impacts pose very real problems and
require urgent adaptation measures (HO LONG PHI 2007).
2
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
Figure 1 shows the spatial extent of land areas in relation to mean sea level. It was
calculated that 72.3% of the whole urban area of HCMC is below 2 m mean sea level.
Furthermore, 98.8% percent of the rural districts Nha Be and Can Gio are also below 2 m
mean sea level. For the two northern rural districts Cu Chi and Hoc Mon, the figure is 38.3
percent (NGUYEN XUAN THINH, HO LONG PHI AND BRÄUER 2009).
Figure 1: Districts in HCMC and mean elevation above sea level
(Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Ho Long Phi and Bräuer 2009)
In the next fifty years the climate in Southern Vietnam will not be the same as present. If
HCMC is to adapt, the city has to begin taking measures now to adapt to a rising sea level,
increased precipitation, a higher frequency of flood events and higher temperatures. This is
why the project focuses on HCMC as a so-called hotspot area, due in part to its significant
economic role for Vietnam and accompanying investments and because of its relatively high
vulnerability to the consequences of climate change.
For our research project a mega-urban approach is the main guiding element. Only at the
urban level is it possible to integrate the many layers of site specific information and to work
closely with the many administrative actors. One of the first actions therefore is to review and
adapt more general planning options to the local context. The presence of a megacity like
HCMC enables the site specific weighting of options, the integration of stakeholders and
administrative institutions and the results and success of measures to be evaluated. In
HCMC, demand is a significant driver for knowledge development and transfer. Cooperative
research regarding climate, water, the natural environment and urban development paths
serves as the basis for developing plans for successful and feasible adaptation strategies.
Adaptation options themselves and their feasibility can best be examined in a regional and
urban context, since that is where it is possible to utilise spatially explicit research results,
local knowledge and institutional experience most effectively for intervention strategies.
3
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
3 Integration - Spatial planning and climate change in HCMC
A main objective is to assist the spatial planning institution of HCMC, firstly to improve their
understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; and secondly to
improve their ability to make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and
measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic
basis, taking into account, of course, current and future climate change and variability.
Adaptation planning tools are however only practical at the local level, in concrete spatial
localities. Climate change exhibits a strong influence on HCMC and its surrounding areas.
Adaptation of the urban pattern and form, natural areas and the water system as well as
housing and buildings is essential to protect HCMC from both the present and future impacts
of climate change and extreme events to its complex system of physical, economic and
social structures. Many of the components are interrelated, and therefore research needs to
focus on the different scales evident in the mega-urban context (building, street block,
neighbourhood, district, city, mega-urban conurbation) and their respective interaction. Due
to the fact that investments in cities are long-term (sewage system, industrial areas, urban
development projects, transport and water infrastructure etc.), finding the appropriate timing
intervals in which action can be undertaken additionally plays an important role. These
transitions in HCMC demand a careful organisation and allocation of space, which is difficult
not only to plan but also to manage. Therefore future climate scenarios, with all their
associated uncertainties, must now be taken into account in development plans, urban
design and environmental urban management concepts.
Figure 2: Spatial assessment for climate change impact in a mega-urban region
To gain insight into the effects of climate change on the urban level, such as the risk of
flooding, heat stress in built up areas, a higher level of land subsidence and inadequate
sewer capacity and to deal with them, the planning authorities of HCMC have the need to
use spatially explicit information of climate effects highlighting which problems are to be
found where, as well as diagrams of promising adaptation measures and projects. The
indicator-based assessment approach we are taking calls for knowledge – and the
dissemination of knowledge – to comprehend the consequences of climate related impacts
on the urban area of HCMC.
4
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
To draw up a well-considered climate adaptation strategy or to enable an assessment of its
effects, certain tools to enable decision-making are needed. These include vulnerability
assessment tools – which play a role particularly in policy preparatory work of spatial
planning, such as urban development scenarios, spatially explicit assessment frameworks,
such as risk and vulnerability assessment tools based on Strategic Environmental
Assessment (SEA) for land-use planning.
An adaptation of the mega-urban region of HCMC to climate change can only be achieved
through the broad integration of urban and environmental planning approaches (see Figure
2). The scale of the megacity itself presents the opportunity for sector-specific adaptation and
mitigation approaches to combine into an integrative planning approach. As a result the
central integration concept is “spatially referenced”. The concept “space” allows the impacts
of climate change on the megacity to be positioned on different spatial scales. Here spatial
planning as a central strategy can meaningfully combine individual approaches through the
integrating concept of “space” as well as the embedment of the goal orientation of local
stakeholders from administration and science (CAMPBELL 2006). The spatiotemporal process
of urban development, next to climate change, is the central dynamic element which enables
spatially explicit scenarios. The development of an integrated “Adaptation Planning
Framework” to serve as the comprehensive overall objective comprises the expected
outcome of the research work. The integrative process of developing an Adaptation Planning
Framework forms a comprehensive basis for implementing urban development adapted to
climate change. For this, the broad inclusion in the administrative and political decisionmaking structures is necessary.
4 Cooperation - Governance structures and spatial planning strategies in HCMC
Governance frames how HCMC’s institutions interpret and fulfil their responsibilities to
ensure the safety and well-being of the urban population affected by climate change.
Governance is not only a matter of how the urban administrative institutions manage climate
change related risks the population may face, but also how they engage with research
institutes and non-governmental actors, such as HCMC’s universities, in implementing their
responsibilities and providing opportunities for an adapted urban development. Climate
change is creating massive new demands on urban governance structures especially in the
field of spatial planning. International research cooperation associated with climate change
efforts creates important opportunities to strengthen institutional, organisational and human
resources to meet these new demands.
The Adaptation Planning Framework focuses primarily on the spatial adaptation to climate
change, climate variability and weather extremes. The governance component implies the
development of spatial planning strategies that contribute to climate-proofing the urban
development of HCMC within the existing planning system. The objective of our focus on
urban planning governance is to increase the ‘adaptive capacity’ of HCMC’s administrative
planning institutions. This analysis of the adaptive capacity will be coupled specifically to the
feasibility of planned physical spatial adaptation and to the existing institutional planning
structures. Strategies and instruments like planning studies, guidelines and toolboxes for
adaptation can differ according to the thematic issues and spatial planning hierarchy.
Furthermore, adaptation strategies must be in line with the existing institutional structures of
spatial planning policy in HCMC such as the relevant legislation, the prevailing normative
principles and the associated tasks and responsibilities of the public and private parties
involved. This does not ignore the fact that, given the observed effectiveness of current
adaptation policies, adjustments to the institutional structures in the field of spatial planning
could arise as result of our research findings.
5
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
4.1 Administrative spatial planning framework of HCMC
The most important agencies which determine overall land use, spatial zoning and
environmental quality in HCMC are the Department of Natural Resources and Environment
(DoNRE), the Department of Architecture and Planning (DPA) and the Department of
Construction (DoC). Theoretically, in Vietnam land-use and urban planning are a practical
expression of socio-economic development strategies. In HCMC there are three master
plans (see Figure 3): the Socio-economic Development Plan formulated by the Institute of
Economic Research (IER), the Urban Development Plan (Master Plan) by DPA and the Land
Use Plan by DoNRE. The Socio-economic Development Plan is designed to provide a
context for the Urban Development Plan and the Land Use Plan.
Figure 3: Urban planning system
Although these three plans differ in both their legal origins and their responsible
administrative agencies, in principle they should share common targets for a coordinated and
sustainable urban development. Some of the main practical problems for adequate
institutional cooperation and coordination in HCMC planning agencies are (NIKKEN SEKKEI &
UPI 2007):
Differences in land-use classifications: The land use classification in the Urban Master
Plan does not correspond with that in the Land Use Plan. As a result land use cannot be
appropriately controlled as planned.
Missing common base information: Spatial planning should be based on consistent and
common information, even if thematic details are different between the Urban Master Plan
and Land Use Plan. This implies the existence of an inter-agency culture of information
sharing, because otherwise the transparent development and assessment of spatially
explicit planning goals will not be possible.
6
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
One important condition for the effective use of these urban environmental planning tools
and guidelines is that they take into account the specific characteristics of climate change
and adaptation policy (see table 2). These include not only the inherent political character of
planning processes in general, but also the long-term perspective, the uncertainties that arise
and the dependence on other societal interests and developments. The planning
administrations in HCMC require clear and unambiguous, spatially explicit and locationspecific information and guidelines that must be available and usable in the short-term. At the
same time they are confronted with the need to draw up long-term spatial land-use and
urban development plans with regard to climate change and are faced with major
uncertainties of climate projections on the local level.
Table 2: Spatial planning measures for climate change adaptation
Climate Change
Strategy
Land use & Urban development planning
1.
Prevention oriented mitigation
Spatial planning of settlement and transport structures that cause less greenhouse
gas emissions
2.
Nonstructural adaptation:
(a): reducing potential impacts
Maintenance of protective features of the natural environment (water retention areas,
protective mangrove forests, cold air generation areas etc.) that absorb or reduce
climate related impacts
3.
Nonstructural adaptation
(b): reducing damage potential
Zoning instruments: Designations in urban land-use plans, e.g. flood hazard areas,
adequate allocation of threatened infrastructure
4.
Structural adaptation
Secure the availability of space for protective infrastructure (dikes etc.)
Designation of prevention measures as a part of building permissions
5.
Reaction: Disaster
Preparedness and Risk
Communication
Information sharing to enhance the preparedness of the urban population at risk
The development of an integrative ‘Adaptation Planning Framework’ can only be assured via
continuous close cooperation and linkage between central administrative and political actors
engaged in spatial adaptation planning. Another prerequisite is to integrate the competences
of the relevant research institutions in HCMC. DoNRE’s Land Use Plan and DPA’s new
Urban Development Plan (Master Plan) are the most influential spatial plans that will shape
the nature of HCMC’s urban development in ways that begin to adapt the city to climate
change (CAREW-REID 2009). The planning department of the DoNRE is responsible for
drafting and updating of the Land Use Plan, which is developed from the Master Plan. The
next update is scheduled for the end of 2010 and will describe the medium-term
development of the city until 2025. There is a significant interest of the DoNRE to bring the
Land Use Plan in line with the future requirements of climate change. Our main objectives of
the cooperation with the administrative planning institutions are proactive in laying the
foundations for spatial adaptation planning on the urban level:
Cooperation with DoNRE, as the focal point for climate change adaptation measures in
the HCMC administration, in preparation of the Land Use Plan for the next planning period
(2010-2025) and ensuring that it becomes a key instrument for promoting and
implementing climate change adaptation measures in HCMC.
Development of SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) and EIA (Environmental
Impact Assessment) tools, to apply to urban development plans and project proposals by
introducing plan-led and spatially explicit screening and assessment tools as an important
force in the integration of adaptation to urban development planning.
Developing a coordinated system for the zoning of vulnerable areas and associated
safeguards and controls for the main thematic impact areas (urban flooding and urban
climate) of climate change on the urban environment of HCMC including
recommendations for natural system protection, rehabilitation and green space zoning to
increase the water retention capacity and reduce the pressure of thermal load in the innercity.
7
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
For this purpose the DoNRE has significantly provided information and data to the research
project and expressed its desire to receive partial primary recommendations for the
upcoming revision of the Land Use Plan (see Figure 4). Furthermore, only the DoNRE
exhibits the expertise to verify the project proposals for the existing spatial requirements.
Figure 4: Land use map of HCMC as central component of the spatial information system
5 Spatially explicit indicator system to support integrative urban land-use planning
According to the redefined role of urban environmental planning in times of climate change,
spatial planning concerns the vulnerability assessment of space and place as a basis for
action or intervention (FÜSSEL 2007). Accepting this new task, spatial planning goes beyond
traditional urban land use planning to bring together, draw upon and integrate policies for
urban development and land use (BULKELEY & BETSILL 2005). The challenge of a changing
climate influences both the nature of urban spaces and profoundly how they can function.
Therefore, the integration of climate change adaptation planning into the spatial planning
framework at the urban level is necessary. Here the main task of an indicator system is to
capture the degree of integrated adaptation measures of spatial planning in a quantifiable
manner. The development of the proposed indicator system has been guided by the
following principles: (1) Indicators for adaptation planning in a spatial planning context need
to be based on adaptation and mitigation objectives that can be derived from spatially explicit
land-use and urban development plans, (2) These indicators must reflect spatial planning’s
contribution to the achievement of integrating specified key sector-specific adaptation and
mitigation policies in the urban areas of HCMC.
8
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
Indicator sets can then be incorporated into a monitoring system that can assess spatial
planning outcomes in terms of cross-sectoral adaptation and mitigation policy integration. A
major consequence therefore is that the analysis of spatial adaptation plans will no longer
solely focus on single indicator values, but increasingly on the combination of single baseindicators to yield meaningful policy measures, guiding adaptation and mitigation measures.
Naturally, this type of analysis has to include the spatial dimension of the indicator system,
by emphasising the importance of functional areas, spatial linkages and connections. Urban
planners and key stakeholders can then utilise these plan-led indicators to revise their
assumptions and core strategies that initially led to the policy actions. They will then be able
to modify climate-related adaptation and energy-related mitigation policy in light of new
issues identified. As a result the adaptation planning framework will help provide a
communicative and iterative learning approach to monitoring, which will embed monitoring
right in the centre of the policy-making process.
Given the complexity of spatial policy implementation for adaptation and mitigation
measures, the analytical and model-driven integration of base indicators is an essential tool
for providing a more rounded view of different aspects of climate change policy. The
emphasis is on developing a group of indicators within each thematic sector (Flooding,
Climate, Energy and Transport) and collectively analysing them to understand the broader
thematic spatial planning outcomes. This approach facilitates cross-cutting analysis by
combining indicators across different thematic sectors, as well as including other more
contextual sets of indicators.
If spatial planning activities involving indicator-driven spatial databases are not coordinated
with the local administrative planning bodies, the indicator-specific data generated at various
levels for urban planning and management purposes remains uncoordinated and limits their
use to support decision making. In order to address these issues in a holistic manner, the
central Spatial Urban Information System, developed from our specific GIS databases, will
assist spatial planning decisions at the most relevant scales for the HCMC mega-urban
region (STORCH ET AL. 2007). The Urban Information System will also be useful for assisting
the modification and preparation of the upcoming versions of the Land Use Plan and the
Urban Development Plan. Furthermore it can support more detailed urban planning schemes
and serve as a decision-making support and strategic environmental assessment platform.
The Urban Spatial Information System has the key objective to meet the requirements of
land-use, urban and environmental planning in the existing organisational and institutional
environments of the administrative spatial planning departments of HCMC. In further steps
domain specific GIS applications, analytical models and thematic assessment methods will
be used to develop customised packages, generating sector-specific risk and vulnerability
analyses in a spatially explicit manner. Based on the results of these risk and vulnerability
mapping procedures, so-called planning recommendation maps, an essential element for
future urban planning and management, will be generated.
5.1 Downscaling climate change assessments on urban level
The main difficulty in downscaling climate change assessments to the urban level is that
every region can be classed as unique in terms of its own underlying development issues
and potential adaptation options. In general, there exists a methodological gap between the
regional climate change models and urban development scenarios which hinder effective
impact assessment (see Figure 5). Knowing future temperature, precipitation and flooding
trends without knowing the general urban development path limits the assessment of
vulnerabilities of the future urban structures in relation to the future climate conditions in a
regional context. Future urban development scenarios for the mega-urban region of HCMC
are closely interrelated with climate change adaptation (KALNAY & CAI 2003). The
consequences of climate change will be influenced by the economic, social and technological
conditions, which for HCMC will be very different from those of today. These conditions will
9
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
have an effect on the vulnerability of HCMC’s future settlement structure to climate change
by influencing its future ‘adaptive capacity’ — the ability of the biophysical urban structure to
adapt to climate change impacts by increasing its resilience to climate change effects (ROAF
ET AL. 2004).
Figure 5: Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts for Mega-Urban Regions
For regional climate change projections, extreme events are more important than average
events. It will be difficult to predict simultaneous increases in the magnitude and frequency of
events. For urban development scenarios a higher degree of flexibility is required, but a
rigorous approach is essential to produce spatially explicit and comparable results. The
urban fabric and the urban structure types it comprises support the explicit spatial
manifestation of complex urban resilience and sensitivity indicators. Settlement and housing
types in HCMC are not uniform. The urban structure type approach generates spatial
indicators that differentiate between the building complexes of the urban patchwork so that
typical characteristics such as physical, functional, social and energetic patterns can be
identified (HAGGAG & AYAD 2002).
Figure 6: Downscaling Climate Change Impacts to the Urban Scale
The concept represents an interpretative method to integrate the biophysical aspect of the
‘exposure’ to climate change effects with the socio-economic aspect of assessing the
‘sensitivity’ of people and places and information (see Figure 6). The urban structure type
approach provides a uniform methodological framework thus allows for a multi-disciplinary
identification of core indicators for spatially explicit vulnerability assessment procedures
(GALDERISI ET AL. 2005), supporting the necessary downscaling of climate change related
impacts to mega-urban level.
10
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
5.2 Indicator-based risk and vulnerability assessment
The integration of the embedded climate vulnerability and risk management into the
processes, procedures and guidelines of urban land-use and development planning will be
based on SEA and Sustainability Appraisals (SA). The developed indicator system will be
utilised in all steps of the assessment and management process, namely (1) Identifying the
objectives of the spatial plan; (2) Assessing current and future climate impacts on the urban
region of HCMC to achieving these objectives; (3) Evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation
policies and measures to manage the potential impacts to acceptable levels; (4) Deciding on
which adaptation policies and measures to adopt in the land-use and urban development
plan; (5) Communicating to stakeholders the consequences of adaptation policies and
measures and explaining the consequences. Only a spatially explicit indicator system
facilitates the integration of climate change scenarios and urban development trend
scenarios. The architecture of the indicator system, guiding the development of our
integrated Urban Spatial Information System is based on the following requirements: (1) The
possibility to link urban development trend scenarios and planning policy options with
downscaled climate change scenarios; (2) To link urban land use changes with climate
change related impacts via spatially explicit indicator analyses; and (3) Assessing these
impacts in light of spatially explicit sustainable adaptation by applying an expert- and
stakeholder-based framework grounded based on transparent and scientifically sound
planning recommendation maps for adaptation and mitigation targets. The main advantage
of an integrated and spatial-explicit indicator system is in its potential to assess the overall
degree of climate adaptation that is provided by the spatial plan as a whole. In this respect
aggregated plan-led indicators can be used to monitor the success of the plan in fulfilling the
adaptation objectives.
6 Summary and Outlook
Autonomous environmental planning for concretisation of the regional requirements is
presently in not recognizable. In regard to these deficits, which exist in the administration of
HCMC and which are highlighted also in the study of the Master Plan drawn up by external
experts, large improvements are foreseen to result from this research project and by the
incorporation of the Vietnamese partners. In the centre stands the consistent processing of
reliable core indicators as planning information as well as their exchange between the
different actors and the administrative bodies of development and environmental standards
in spatial planning. Altogether a high demand exists in regard to the development of
environmentally referenced spatial data and their implementation into planning. Therefore,
the working results should be capable of fulfilling the needs of the DoNRE for the new Master
Plan in terms of transparency and professionalism. The process of joint development of
planning bases will enable the DoNRE to treat other aspects of environmental protection and
the protection of natural resources in a similar way. The interest of the DoNRE in the
approach of classification of protected areas and the determination of impact and priority
areas or even “taboo zones” became very clear. The consistent processing of spatial data
from the database to the planning map is a substantial part of the knowledge transfer in the
context of the project. Via the cooperation of German and Vietnamese scientists from various
universities on the one hand and different administrative bodies of HCMC on the other, the
research project strengthens the willingness to cooperate for mutual benefit.
7 Acknowledgement
The research project ‘Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning for Adaptation of Ho Chi
Minh City to Climate Change’ (www.megacity-hcmc.org) is financed as part of the research
programme 'Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow’ by the German
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Following an evaluation of the
preoperational phase (2005-2008) of the project, the main phase of the BMBF-research
programme, now focuses on “energy- and climate-efficient structures in urban growth
centres”, initiated mid 2008 and will run up to 2013 (www.emerging-megacities.org).
11
Harry Storch
The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA
th
45 ISOCARP Congress 2009
References
Bulkeley, Harriet and Betsill, Michele (2005) “Rethinking sustainable cities: multilevel governance and
the “urban” politics of climate change”, Environmental Politics (14), pp. 42-63.
Campbell, Heather (2006) “Is the Issue of Climate Change too Big for Spatial Planning?” Planning
Theory and Practice, Vol. 7, Nr. 2, pp. 201-230.
Carew-Reid, Jeremy (2008): Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in
Vietnam. ICEM Climate Change Discussion Paper 1. ICEM – International Centre for
Environmental Management. Brisbane, Australia.
Carew-Reid, Jeremy (2009) “Climate Change Adaptation in HCMC Vietnam”. In: Vietnamese Institute
for Urban and Rural Planning and Ministry of Construction (ed.): International Symposium for the
Hanoi Capital Construction Master Plan to 2030 and Vision to 2050 (brochure). pp. 109-135.
Cruz, R. V., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., u. a. (2007) “Asia”. In: Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)..
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 469-506.
DasGupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2007) “The Impact of Sea Level Rise
on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
4136. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank.
Füssel, Hans-Martin (2007) “Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate
change research”. Global Environmental Change 17, pp. 155–167
Galderisi, A., Ceudech, A., & Pistucci, M. (2005). “Integrated vulnerability assessment: the relevance
“to” and “of” regional and urban planning”. Naples, Italy: Department of Urban and Regional
Planning, University of Naples Federico II.
Haggag, M., & Ayad, H. (2002). The Urban Structural Units Method: A Basis for Evaluating
Environmental Prospects for Sustainable Development. In: Macmillan, P. (Ed.) Urban Design
International, Vol. 7 (Number 2), pp. 97-108(12).
Ho Long Phi (2007) “Climate change and urban flooding in Ho Chi Minh City”. Proceedings of the
Third International Conference on Climate and Water 3-6 September 2007, Helsinki, Finland, pp.
194-199.
Kalnay, Eugenia and Cai, Ming (2003) “Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate”.
Nature 423, pp. 528-531.
MONRE (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) (2005) Technical report on the identification
and assessment of technology needs for GHG emission reduction and climate change adaptation
in Viet Nam. Hanoi, Vietnam.
Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Ho Long Phi and Anne Bräuer (2009) “WP2 Urban Flooding”, Presentation at 1st
Megacity Conference Mar./Apr. 2009 Vietnam: Adapting Ho Chi Minh City to the Impacts of
Climate Change
Nguyen Huu Nhan (2006) “The Environment in Ho Chi Minh City Harbours”. In: Wolanski, Eric: The
Environment in Asia Pacific Harbours, Amsterdam: Springer Netherlands, pp. 261-291.
Nikken Sekkei & UPI (Urban Planning Institute of HCMC) (2007): “The Study on the Adjustment of
HCMC Master Plan up to 2025”. Final Report. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Roaf, Sue; Crichton, David and Nicol, Fergus (2004) Adapting Buildings and Cities for Climate
Change. A 21st Century Survival Guide. Maryland: Architectural Press.
Storch, Harry; Bang Anh Tuan and Schmidt, Michael (2007) Spatial Information Management for
Megacity Research in Asia. In: Hryniewicz, Olgierd; Studzinski, Jan; Romaniuk, Maciej (Eds.)
Environmental Informatics and Systems Research, Proceedings of the 21th International
Conference on Informatics for Environmental Protection, EnviroInfo 2007 Warzaw, Poland,
Aachen: Shaker, pp. 491-500.
Author:
Dr. Harry Storch
Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Germany
Department of Environmental Planning
Email: [email protected]
12