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Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change at the Mega-urban Scale in South-East-Asia. Urban Environmental Planning Strategies for Ho Chi Minh City´s Response to Climate Change. 1 Introduction and Problem Overview Climate change is changing the traditional context of urban development planning and is shaping the priorities of sustainability. The environmental dimension of spatial planning in emerging megacities such as Ho Chi Minh City has become a strong rationale for coordinating spatially well defined adaptation actions and integrating mitigation policies. While urban development trends in HCMC are addressing both mitigation needs and the rationale of adaptation to the effects of climate change, the main focus of combating climate change impacts in the mega-urban region of HCMC has to be the practical implementation of adaptation measures. Planned adaptation implies policy decisions and measures at the urban-scale that facilitates the reduction of the adverse impacts of climate change. Further however adaptation also possess the potential to realise new opportunities for urban development planning, scoping planning issues and opportunities at different spatial scales and highlighting the need to link global mitigation measures and local adaptation responses at the urban scale. For HCMC it creates the necessity to take climate change responses into account in spatial planning practices. This will also lead to changes in the traditional administrative structures that spatial planning is accustomed to. Since many of the main impacts of climate change have a land-use or water-management dimension, a downscaled and spatially explicit urban environmental planning information system can function as a switchboard for mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development objectives. Currently there are large differences in the way knowledge is produced, the analytical approaches that are used and the designed urban and environmental planning strategies. The proposed sharing of a commonly accepted spatial information base can engage the dialogue between stakeholders and scientists in order to support the development of spatially explicit planning strategies that anticipate the climate change risks at the mega-urban scale and contribute to sustainable and resilient settlement structures for HCMC. 2 Climate change – Need for research on adaptation to climate change In the emerging coastal mega-urban regions of Southeast Asia, climate change represents one of the greatest challenges. Recently climate change and its future impacts on Asian megacities in high-risk zones, such as the continent’s main river delta regions, have emerged at the top of the international research agenda (CRUZ ET AL. 2007). Since then, international policy agreements have been established to limit the emission of greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, even if a reduction in these emissions is achieved, the time lag in the climatic system will inevitably cause a substantial degree of climate change. The impacts of this change are, however, uneven with inter-tropical, densely populated delta regions exposed to rising sea levels among those expected to be hardest hit. Here unprecedented cooperation and research is needed to identify the planning options available for adapting these regions to changing climate, advancing and disseminating knowledge and understanding. Spatial planning strategies which focus on the adaptation strategies to climate change require information regarding future changes at a scale relevant to the area under investigation. This necessitates spatially more explicit climate effect models that provide useful information at both the regional and urban level, taking into account the many uncertainties at these spatial levels. Through the statistical downscaling of global climate models, the future impacts of global change on South Vietnam using IPPC high emission scenarios have been predicted as 1 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 Sea Level Rise: Averaged presumed sea level rise by 2050, 18.5 cm, rising to 52.9 cm in 2100. While worst case scenarios are 33.4 cm by 2050 and 101.7 cm in 2100. According to many international reviews on the potential impacts of sea level rise, Vietnam ranks highly among the most affected countries (DASGUPTA ET. AL. 2007) (see table 1 below). Temperature: Predicted to be 4.0 ºC to 4.5 ºC higher in 2100, relative to 1990 levels Precipitation: An overall 5-10% increase is envisaged from high emission scenarios; while during the rainy season a 10-20% increase is envisaged. During the dry season, a decrease of 20% is foreseen. Table 1: Sea level rise scenario’s for Vietnam (in centimetres) IPPC Emission Scenarios 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 11.6 17.3 24.4 33.4 44.4 57.1 71.1 86.1 101.7 Average 6.5 9.7 13.6 18.5 24.4 31.0 38.1 45.4 52.9 Low 3.9 5.6 7.6 10.0 12.6 15.2 17.8 20.3 High High A1FI 2.6 (Source: Tran Thuc; Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment) Vietnam has a long history of coping with natural disasters and mitigating their effects in many ways. However, the country must recognize that some impacts of global climate change are unavoidable, and as such there is an urgent need at present to start adapting the mega-urban regions to the current impacts of extreme weather events and the predicted impacts of climate change with which they are likely to be confronted in the future (MONRE 2005). With more than half of Vietnam’s population now living in low elevation zones, coastal urban settlements are becoming increasingly vulnerable (CAREW -REID 2008). 2.1 The Impacts of Climate Change on Ho Chi Minh City Historically HCMC, as a densely built-up area in a low lying region, is sensitive to climatic effects. It’s location in an estuarine area of the Dong Nai River system, with a high flow volume, fifty kilometres from the South China Sea and northeast of the Mekong River Delta contribute to this sensitivity (NGUYEN HUU NHAN 2006). This combination accumulates to a high average level of physical and social vulnerability in most parts of HCMC. Due to its geographic location this flood-prone metropolitan area will always face natural hazards. However, vulnerabilities of lives and livelihood to climate-related environmental processes are primarily the result of inadequate and unsustainable urban planning practices associated with complex natural settings and societal structures. For a densely populated and highly vulnerable mega-urban region such as HCMC, timely adaptation planning to the unavoidable effects of climate change is necessary and essential. Due to the high concentration of people, business, infrastructure and industry, HCMC inherently is a hotspot for climate change impacts. Current and future climate impacts on the urban area of HCMC include: Sea level rise and tidal flooding, Fluvial flooding, Urban drainage flooding, Building and infrastructure subsidence, Heat and human comfort and health. Some of these climate related impacts directly interact with the urban area of HCMC (e.g. floods), whilst other impacts are acting more indirect (e.g. variation in heat waves and precipitation patterns). Nevertheless, these climate impacts pose very real problems and require urgent adaptation measures (HO LONG PHI 2007). 2 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 Figure 1 shows the spatial extent of land areas in relation to mean sea level. It was calculated that 72.3% of the whole urban area of HCMC is below 2 m mean sea level. Furthermore, 98.8% percent of the rural districts Nha Be and Can Gio are also below 2 m mean sea level. For the two northern rural districts Cu Chi and Hoc Mon, the figure is 38.3 percent (NGUYEN XUAN THINH, HO LONG PHI AND BRÄUER 2009). Figure 1: Districts in HCMC and mean elevation above sea level (Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Ho Long Phi and Bräuer 2009) In the next fifty years the climate in Southern Vietnam will not be the same as present. If HCMC is to adapt, the city has to begin taking measures now to adapt to a rising sea level, increased precipitation, a higher frequency of flood events and higher temperatures. This is why the project focuses on HCMC as a so-called hotspot area, due in part to its significant economic role for Vietnam and accompanying investments and because of its relatively high vulnerability to the consequences of climate change. For our research project a mega-urban approach is the main guiding element. Only at the urban level is it possible to integrate the many layers of site specific information and to work closely with the many administrative actors. One of the first actions therefore is to review and adapt more general planning options to the local context. The presence of a megacity like HCMC enables the site specific weighting of options, the integration of stakeholders and administrative institutions and the results and success of measures to be evaluated. In HCMC, demand is a significant driver for knowledge development and transfer. Cooperative research regarding climate, water, the natural environment and urban development paths serves as the basis for developing plans for successful and feasible adaptation strategies. Adaptation options themselves and their feasibility can best be examined in a regional and urban context, since that is where it is possible to utilise spatially explicit research results, local knowledge and institutional experience most effectively for intervention strategies. 3 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 3 Integration - Spatial planning and climate change in HCMC A main objective is to assist the spatial planning institution of HCMC, firstly to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; and secondly to improve their ability to make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account, of course, current and future climate change and variability. Adaptation planning tools are however only practical at the local level, in concrete spatial localities. Climate change exhibits a strong influence on HCMC and its surrounding areas. Adaptation of the urban pattern and form, natural areas and the water system as well as housing and buildings is essential to protect HCMC from both the present and future impacts of climate change and extreme events to its complex system of physical, economic and social structures. Many of the components are interrelated, and therefore research needs to focus on the different scales evident in the mega-urban context (building, street block, neighbourhood, district, city, mega-urban conurbation) and their respective interaction. Due to the fact that investments in cities are long-term (sewage system, industrial areas, urban development projects, transport and water infrastructure etc.), finding the appropriate timing intervals in which action can be undertaken additionally plays an important role. These transitions in HCMC demand a careful organisation and allocation of space, which is difficult not only to plan but also to manage. Therefore future climate scenarios, with all their associated uncertainties, must now be taken into account in development plans, urban design and environmental urban management concepts. Figure 2: Spatial assessment for climate change impact in a mega-urban region To gain insight into the effects of climate change on the urban level, such as the risk of flooding, heat stress in built up areas, a higher level of land subsidence and inadequate sewer capacity and to deal with them, the planning authorities of HCMC have the need to use spatially explicit information of climate effects highlighting which problems are to be found where, as well as diagrams of promising adaptation measures and projects. The indicator-based assessment approach we are taking calls for knowledge – and the dissemination of knowledge – to comprehend the consequences of climate related impacts on the urban area of HCMC. 4 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 To draw up a well-considered climate adaptation strategy or to enable an assessment of its effects, certain tools to enable decision-making are needed. These include vulnerability assessment tools – which play a role particularly in policy preparatory work of spatial planning, such as urban development scenarios, spatially explicit assessment frameworks, such as risk and vulnerability assessment tools based on Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for land-use planning. An adaptation of the mega-urban region of HCMC to climate change can only be achieved through the broad integration of urban and environmental planning approaches (see Figure 2). The scale of the megacity itself presents the opportunity for sector-specific adaptation and mitigation approaches to combine into an integrative planning approach. As a result the central integration concept is “spatially referenced”. The concept “space” allows the impacts of climate change on the megacity to be positioned on different spatial scales. Here spatial planning as a central strategy can meaningfully combine individual approaches through the integrating concept of “space” as well as the embedment of the goal orientation of local stakeholders from administration and science (CAMPBELL 2006). The spatiotemporal process of urban development, next to climate change, is the central dynamic element which enables spatially explicit scenarios. The development of an integrated “Adaptation Planning Framework” to serve as the comprehensive overall objective comprises the expected outcome of the research work. The integrative process of developing an Adaptation Planning Framework forms a comprehensive basis for implementing urban development adapted to climate change. For this, the broad inclusion in the administrative and political decisionmaking structures is necessary. 4 Cooperation - Governance structures and spatial planning strategies in HCMC Governance frames how HCMC’s institutions interpret and fulfil their responsibilities to ensure the safety and well-being of the urban population affected by climate change. Governance is not only a matter of how the urban administrative institutions manage climate change related risks the population may face, but also how they engage with research institutes and non-governmental actors, such as HCMC’s universities, in implementing their responsibilities and providing opportunities for an adapted urban development. Climate change is creating massive new demands on urban governance structures especially in the field of spatial planning. International research cooperation associated with climate change efforts creates important opportunities to strengthen institutional, organisational and human resources to meet these new demands. The Adaptation Planning Framework focuses primarily on the spatial adaptation to climate change, climate variability and weather extremes. The governance component implies the development of spatial planning strategies that contribute to climate-proofing the urban development of HCMC within the existing planning system. The objective of our focus on urban planning governance is to increase the ‘adaptive capacity’ of HCMC’s administrative planning institutions. This analysis of the adaptive capacity will be coupled specifically to the feasibility of planned physical spatial adaptation and to the existing institutional planning structures. Strategies and instruments like planning studies, guidelines and toolboxes for adaptation can differ according to the thematic issues and spatial planning hierarchy. Furthermore, adaptation strategies must be in line with the existing institutional structures of spatial planning policy in HCMC such as the relevant legislation, the prevailing normative principles and the associated tasks and responsibilities of the public and private parties involved. This does not ignore the fact that, given the observed effectiveness of current adaptation policies, adjustments to the institutional structures in the field of spatial planning could arise as result of our research findings. 5 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 4.1 Administrative spatial planning framework of HCMC The most important agencies which determine overall land use, spatial zoning and environmental quality in HCMC are the Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DoNRE), the Department of Architecture and Planning (DPA) and the Department of Construction (DoC). Theoretically, in Vietnam land-use and urban planning are a practical expression of socio-economic development strategies. In HCMC there are three master plans (see Figure 3): the Socio-economic Development Plan formulated by the Institute of Economic Research (IER), the Urban Development Plan (Master Plan) by DPA and the Land Use Plan by DoNRE. The Socio-economic Development Plan is designed to provide a context for the Urban Development Plan and the Land Use Plan. Figure 3: Urban planning system Although these three plans differ in both their legal origins and their responsible administrative agencies, in principle they should share common targets for a coordinated and sustainable urban development. Some of the main practical problems for adequate institutional cooperation and coordination in HCMC planning agencies are (NIKKEN SEKKEI & UPI 2007): Differences in land-use classifications: The land use classification in the Urban Master Plan does not correspond with that in the Land Use Plan. As a result land use cannot be appropriately controlled as planned. Missing common base information: Spatial planning should be based on consistent and common information, even if thematic details are different between the Urban Master Plan and Land Use Plan. This implies the existence of an inter-agency culture of information sharing, because otherwise the transparent development and assessment of spatially explicit planning goals will not be possible. 6 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 One important condition for the effective use of these urban environmental planning tools and guidelines is that they take into account the specific characteristics of climate change and adaptation policy (see table 2). These include not only the inherent political character of planning processes in general, but also the long-term perspective, the uncertainties that arise and the dependence on other societal interests and developments. The planning administrations in HCMC require clear and unambiguous, spatially explicit and locationspecific information and guidelines that must be available and usable in the short-term. At the same time they are confronted with the need to draw up long-term spatial land-use and urban development plans with regard to climate change and are faced with major uncertainties of climate projections on the local level. Table 2: Spatial planning measures for climate change adaptation Climate Change Strategy Land use & Urban development planning 1. Prevention oriented mitigation Spatial planning of settlement and transport structures that cause less greenhouse gas emissions 2. Nonstructural adaptation: (a): reducing potential impacts Maintenance of protective features of the natural environment (water retention areas, protective mangrove forests, cold air generation areas etc.) that absorb or reduce climate related impacts 3. Nonstructural adaptation (b): reducing damage potential Zoning instruments: Designations in urban land-use plans, e.g. flood hazard areas, adequate allocation of threatened infrastructure 4. Structural adaptation Secure the availability of space for protective infrastructure (dikes etc.) Designation of prevention measures as a part of building permissions 5. Reaction: Disaster Preparedness and Risk Communication Information sharing to enhance the preparedness of the urban population at risk The development of an integrative ‘Adaptation Planning Framework’ can only be assured via continuous close cooperation and linkage between central administrative and political actors engaged in spatial adaptation planning. Another prerequisite is to integrate the competences of the relevant research institutions in HCMC. DoNRE’s Land Use Plan and DPA’s new Urban Development Plan (Master Plan) are the most influential spatial plans that will shape the nature of HCMC’s urban development in ways that begin to adapt the city to climate change (CAREW-REID 2009). The planning department of the DoNRE is responsible for drafting and updating of the Land Use Plan, which is developed from the Master Plan. The next update is scheduled for the end of 2010 and will describe the medium-term development of the city until 2025. There is a significant interest of the DoNRE to bring the Land Use Plan in line with the future requirements of climate change. Our main objectives of the cooperation with the administrative planning institutions are proactive in laying the foundations for spatial adaptation planning on the urban level: Cooperation with DoNRE, as the focal point for climate change adaptation measures in the HCMC administration, in preparation of the Land Use Plan for the next planning period (2010-2025) and ensuring that it becomes a key instrument for promoting and implementing climate change adaptation measures in HCMC. Development of SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) and EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) tools, to apply to urban development plans and project proposals by introducing plan-led and spatially explicit screening and assessment tools as an important force in the integration of adaptation to urban development planning. Developing a coordinated system for the zoning of vulnerable areas and associated safeguards and controls for the main thematic impact areas (urban flooding and urban climate) of climate change on the urban environment of HCMC including recommendations for natural system protection, rehabilitation and green space zoning to increase the water retention capacity and reduce the pressure of thermal load in the innercity. 7 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 For this purpose the DoNRE has significantly provided information and data to the research project and expressed its desire to receive partial primary recommendations for the upcoming revision of the Land Use Plan (see Figure 4). Furthermore, only the DoNRE exhibits the expertise to verify the project proposals for the existing spatial requirements. Figure 4: Land use map of HCMC as central component of the spatial information system 5 Spatially explicit indicator system to support integrative urban land-use planning According to the redefined role of urban environmental planning in times of climate change, spatial planning concerns the vulnerability assessment of space and place as a basis for action or intervention (FÜSSEL 2007). Accepting this new task, spatial planning goes beyond traditional urban land use planning to bring together, draw upon and integrate policies for urban development and land use (BULKELEY & BETSILL 2005). The challenge of a changing climate influences both the nature of urban spaces and profoundly how they can function. Therefore, the integration of climate change adaptation planning into the spatial planning framework at the urban level is necessary. Here the main task of an indicator system is to capture the degree of integrated adaptation measures of spatial planning in a quantifiable manner. The development of the proposed indicator system has been guided by the following principles: (1) Indicators for adaptation planning in a spatial planning context need to be based on adaptation and mitigation objectives that can be derived from spatially explicit land-use and urban development plans, (2) These indicators must reflect spatial planning’s contribution to the achievement of integrating specified key sector-specific adaptation and mitigation policies in the urban areas of HCMC. 8 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 Indicator sets can then be incorporated into a monitoring system that can assess spatial planning outcomes in terms of cross-sectoral adaptation and mitigation policy integration. A major consequence therefore is that the analysis of spatial adaptation plans will no longer solely focus on single indicator values, but increasingly on the combination of single baseindicators to yield meaningful policy measures, guiding adaptation and mitigation measures. Naturally, this type of analysis has to include the spatial dimension of the indicator system, by emphasising the importance of functional areas, spatial linkages and connections. Urban planners and key stakeholders can then utilise these plan-led indicators to revise their assumptions and core strategies that initially led to the policy actions. They will then be able to modify climate-related adaptation and energy-related mitigation policy in light of new issues identified. As a result the adaptation planning framework will help provide a communicative and iterative learning approach to monitoring, which will embed monitoring right in the centre of the policy-making process. Given the complexity of spatial policy implementation for adaptation and mitigation measures, the analytical and model-driven integration of base indicators is an essential tool for providing a more rounded view of different aspects of climate change policy. The emphasis is on developing a group of indicators within each thematic sector (Flooding, Climate, Energy and Transport) and collectively analysing them to understand the broader thematic spatial planning outcomes. This approach facilitates cross-cutting analysis by combining indicators across different thematic sectors, as well as including other more contextual sets of indicators. If spatial planning activities involving indicator-driven spatial databases are not coordinated with the local administrative planning bodies, the indicator-specific data generated at various levels for urban planning and management purposes remains uncoordinated and limits their use to support decision making. In order to address these issues in a holistic manner, the central Spatial Urban Information System, developed from our specific GIS databases, will assist spatial planning decisions at the most relevant scales for the HCMC mega-urban region (STORCH ET AL. 2007). The Urban Information System will also be useful for assisting the modification and preparation of the upcoming versions of the Land Use Plan and the Urban Development Plan. Furthermore it can support more detailed urban planning schemes and serve as a decision-making support and strategic environmental assessment platform. The Urban Spatial Information System has the key objective to meet the requirements of land-use, urban and environmental planning in the existing organisational and institutional environments of the administrative spatial planning departments of HCMC. In further steps domain specific GIS applications, analytical models and thematic assessment methods will be used to develop customised packages, generating sector-specific risk and vulnerability analyses in a spatially explicit manner. Based on the results of these risk and vulnerability mapping procedures, so-called planning recommendation maps, an essential element for future urban planning and management, will be generated. 5.1 Downscaling climate change assessments on urban level The main difficulty in downscaling climate change assessments to the urban level is that every region can be classed as unique in terms of its own underlying development issues and potential adaptation options. In general, there exists a methodological gap between the regional climate change models and urban development scenarios which hinder effective impact assessment (see Figure 5). Knowing future temperature, precipitation and flooding trends without knowing the general urban development path limits the assessment of vulnerabilities of the future urban structures in relation to the future climate conditions in a regional context. Future urban development scenarios for the mega-urban region of HCMC are closely interrelated with climate change adaptation (KALNAY & CAI 2003). The consequences of climate change will be influenced by the economic, social and technological conditions, which for HCMC will be very different from those of today. These conditions will 9 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 have an effect on the vulnerability of HCMC’s future settlement structure to climate change by influencing its future ‘adaptive capacity’ — the ability of the biophysical urban structure to adapt to climate change impacts by increasing its resilience to climate change effects (ROAF ET AL. 2004). Figure 5: Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts for Mega-Urban Regions For regional climate change projections, extreme events are more important than average events. It will be difficult to predict simultaneous increases in the magnitude and frequency of events. For urban development scenarios a higher degree of flexibility is required, but a rigorous approach is essential to produce spatially explicit and comparable results. The urban fabric and the urban structure types it comprises support the explicit spatial manifestation of complex urban resilience and sensitivity indicators. Settlement and housing types in HCMC are not uniform. The urban structure type approach generates spatial indicators that differentiate between the building complexes of the urban patchwork so that typical characteristics such as physical, functional, social and energetic patterns can be identified (HAGGAG & AYAD 2002). Figure 6: Downscaling Climate Change Impacts to the Urban Scale The concept represents an interpretative method to integrate the biophysical aspect of the ‘exposure’ to climate change effects with the socio-economic aspect of assessing the ‘sensitivity’ of people and places and information (see Figure 6). The urban structure type approach provides a uniform methodological framework thus allows for a multi-disciplinary identification of core indicators for spatially explicit vulnerability assessment procedures (GALDERISI ET AL. 2005), supporting the necessary downscaling of climate change related impacts to mega-urban level. 10 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 5.2 Indicator-based risk and vulnerability assessment The integration of the embedded climate vulnerability and risk management into the processes, procedures and guidelines of urban land-use and development planning will be based on SEA and Sustainability Appraisals (SA). The developed indicator system will be utilised in all steps of the assessment and management process, namely (1) Identifying the objectives of the spatial plan; (2) Assessing current and future climate impacts on the urban region of HCMC to achieving these objectives; (3) Evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation policies and measures to manage the potential impacts to acceptable levels; (4) Deciding on which adaptation policies and measures to adopt in the land-use and urban development plan; (5) Communicating to stakeholders the consequences of adaptation policies and measures and explaining the consequences. Only a spatially explicit indicator system facilitates the integration of climate change scenarios and urban development trend scenarios. The architecture of the indicator system, guiding the development of our integrated Urban Spatial Information System is based on the following requirements: (1) The possibility to link urban development trend scenarios and planning policy options with downscaled climate change scenarios; (2) To link urban land use changes with climate change related impacts via spatially explicit indicator analyses; and (3) Assessing these impacts in light of spatially explicit sustainable adaptation by applying an expert- and stakeholder-based framework grounded based on transparent and scientifically sound planning recommendation maps for adaptation and mitigation targets. The main advantage of an integrated and spatial-explicit indicator system is in its potential to assess the overall degree of climate adaptation that is provided by the spatial plan as a whole. In this respect aggregated plan-led indicators can be used to monitor the success of the plan in fulfilling the adaptation objectives. 6 Summary and Outlook Autonomous environmental planning for concretisation of the regional requirements is presently in not recognizable. In regard to these deficits, which exist in the administration of HCMC and which are highlighted also in the study of the Master Plan drawn up by external experts, large improvements are foreseen to result from this research project and by the incorporation of the Vietnamese partners. In the centre stands the consistent processing of reliable core indicators as planning information as well as their exchange between the different actors and the administrative bodies of development and environmental standards in spatial planning. Altogether a high demand exists in regard to the development of environmentally referenced spatial data and their implementation into planning. Therefore, the working results should be capable of fulfilling the needs of the DoNRE for the new Master Plan in terms of transparency and professionalism. The process of joint development of planning bases will enable the DoNRE to treat other aspects of environmental protection and the protection of natural resources in a similar way. The interest of the DoNRE in the approach of classification of protected areas and the determination of impact and priority areas or even “taboo zones” became very clear. The consistent processing of spatial data from the database to the planning map is a substantial part of the knowledge transfer in the context of the project. Via the cooperation of German and Vietnamese scientists from various universities on the one hand and different administrative bodies of HCMC on the other, the research project strengthens the willingness to cooperate for mutual benefit. 7 Acknowledgement The research project ‘Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning for Adaptation of Ho Chi Minh City to Climate Change’ (www.megacity-hcmc.org) is financed as part of the research programme 'Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow’ by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Following an evaluation of the preoperational phase (2005-2008) of the project, the main phase of the BMBF-research programme, now focuses on “energy- and climate-efficient structures in urban growth centres”, initiated mid 2008 and will run up to 2013 (www.emerging-megacities.org). 11 Harry Storch The Spatial Dimensions of Climate Change in SEA th 45 ISOCARP Congress 2009 References Bulkeley, Harriet and Betsill, Michele (2005) “Rethinking sustainable cities: multilevel governance and the “urban” politics of climate change”, Environmental Politics (14), pp. 42-63. Campbell, Heather (2006) “Is the Issue of Climate Change too Big for Spatial Planning?” Planning Theory and Practice, Vol. 7, Nr. 2, pp. 201-230. Carew-Reid, Jeremy (2008): Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in Vietnam. ICEM Climate Change Discussion Paper 1. ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management. Brisbane, Australia. Carew-Reid, Jeremy (2009) “Climate Change Adaptation in HCMC Vietnam”. In: Vietnamese Institute for Urban and Rural Planning and Ministry of Construction (ed.): International Symposium for the Hanoi Capital Construction Master Plan to 2030 and Vision to 2050 (brochure). pp. 109-135. Cruz, R. V., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., u. a. (2007) “Asia”. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 469-506. DasGupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2007) “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank. Füssel, Hans-Martin (2007) “Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research”. Global Environmental Change 17, pp. 155–167 Galderisi, A., Ceudech, A., & Pistucci, M. (2005). “Integrated vulnerability assessment: the relevance “to” and “of” regional and urban planning”. Naples, Italy: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Naples Federico II. Haggag, M., & Ayad, H. (2002). The Urban Structural Units Method: A Basis for Evaluating Environmental Prospects for Sustainable Development. In: Macmillan, P. (Ed.) Urban Design International, Vol. 7 (Number 2), pp. 97-108(12). Ho Long Phi (2007) “Climate change and urban flooding in Ho Chi Minh City”. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate and Water 3-6 September 2007, Helsinki, Finland, pp. 194-199. Kalnay, Eugenia and Cai, Ming (2003) “Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate”. Nature 423, pp. 528-531. MONRE (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) (2005) Technical report on the identification and assessment of technology needs for GHG emission reduction and climate change adaptation in Viet Nam. Hanoi, Vietnam. Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Ho Long Phi and Anne Bräuer (2009) “WP2 Urban Flooding”, Presentation at 1st Megacity Conference Mar./Apr. 2009 Vietnam: Adapting Ho Chi Minh City to the Impacts of Climate Change Nguyen Huu Nhan (2006) “The Environment in Ho Chi Minh City Harbours”. In: Wolanski, Eric: The Environment in Asia Pacific Harbours, Amsterdam: Springer Netherlands, pp. 261-291. Nikken Sekkei & UPI (Urban Planning Institute of HCMC) (2007): “The Study on the Adjustment of HCMC Master Plan up to 2025”. Final Report. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Roaf, Sue; Crichton, David and Nicol, Fergus (2004) Adapting Buildings and Cities for Climate Change. A 21st Century Survival Guide. Maryland: Architectural Press. Storch, Harry; Bang Anh Tuan and Schmidt, Michael (2007) Spatial Information Management for Megacity Research in Asia. In: Hryniewicz, Olgierd; Studzinski, Jan; Romaniuk, Maciej (Eds.) Environmental Informatics and Systems Research, Proceedings of the 21th International Conference on Informatics for Environmental Protection, EnviroInfo 2007 Warzaw, Poland, Aachen: Shaker, pp. 491-500. Author: Dr. Harry Storch Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Germany Department of Environmental Planning Email: [email protected] 12