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Transcript
The Effect of Climate Change
on the Vegetation Cover
of the Mujib Nature Reserve
– Dead Sea
Wisam Khisro
Degree project for Master of Science (60 credits)
with a major in Atmospheric Science
60 hec
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences
University of Gothenburg
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues that threaten the entire
planet. It does not only affect the environment, but it also have economic, social and political
aspects. This problem exacerbated day after day to become the main concern of experts and
interested parties in the field.
However, nature reserves are considered as a successful way to conserve the vegetation cover,
especially in arid regions. This helps to combat desertification, which is a product of land use
and climate change. Hence, there is good reason for the selection of nature reserve in an arid
region, the Mujib Nature Reserve-Dead Sea in the Middle East (Jordan), to study the effects
of climate change on this type of fragile ecosystem. The Mujib nature reserve covers an area
of 212 square kilometers.
This investigation conducted in the present thesis, statistically analyzed and discussed time
series for climate data such as temperature, precipitation and, humidity, as well as, vegetation
cover as represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The time series
were analyzed for significant trends and relationships between NDVI and meteorological
variables. The study period was 1983 to 2001. After examining the variables, it was found
that there is a significant decrease in the rates of precipitation, with an increase of
temperatures in conjunction with decline in the NDVI. In addition a sharp decline in wind
speed and remarkable increase in the number of days of high humidity were noticed along the
studied time period.Which pointed out that there is a particular link between these climatic
variables and volatility and the decline of vegetation. Also, in spite of the topographic and
climatic peculiarity of the study region, the results likely indicate the nature of climate change
in the nearby countries characterized by arid climates, these include Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Key words: Climate change, nature reserves, vegetation cover, NDVI, desertification,
temperature, Jordan.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 The climate and vegetation of Jordan.......................................................... 2
1.3 The nature conservation in Jordan............................................................... 4
1.4 Climate change ........................................................................................... 5
2 Rationale and Aim of the Study……………………………………….……………. 6
2.1 Research questions……………………………………………………………..
6
2.2 Hypotheses……………………………………………………….………….…
7
3 Materials and Methods…………………………………………………………….… 7
3.1 Sources of Data……………………………………………………………….
7
3.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDV) Definition……....................
8
4 Results…..………………………………………………………………………..….... 8
4.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)……………………………...9
4.2 Mean Precipitation……………………………………………...........................9
4.3 Precipitation and Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI) ……..........11
4.4 Annual Mean Air Temperature (TMEAN)…………………………….…..........12
4.5 Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature(TMAX, TMIN)...........12
4.6 Cloud Cover……………………………………………………………………...12
4.7 Wind Speed………………………………………………………………………13
4.8 Average Number of Humid Days……..…………………………………...……..13
4.9 Mean Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
Relationship…………………………………………………………………….…….14
5 Discussion……………………………………………………….……………….. ……14
5.1 Climate change and Vegetation cover……………………….............................14
5.2 Overgrazing…………………………………………………………………….....16
5.3 Vegetation types fragility …………………………………………………………17
5.4 Methodological limitations……………………………………………….….….…17
6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….……18
7 Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………….…
18
8 References…………………………………………………………………………..
19
1 Introduction
1.1 Nature Conservations
One of the most important and classic instruments for nature conservation is to protect areas.
According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) a protected area is
an area of land or sea especially dedicated to protection and maintenance of biological
diversity, of natural and associated cultural resources, and managed through legal or other
effective means.
There are six categories according to the (IUCN)’s classification system (Burhenne-Guilmin
2011) (see Table 1-1). Protection can be classified according to the size of areas to be
protected as large areas, medium areas or it can be applied e.g. on a particular type of plant (a
single object). Those who work in the field of nature protection try to mitigate the loss or lack
of flora and fauna in order to maintain biodiversity, which is essential for the sustainability of
any ecosystem, and this is one of the major objectives of establishing nature reserves.
Nevertheless, the benefits of protected areas are no longer limited to maintain flora and fauna
from extinction only. It also contributes to the environmental stability and reduces floods and
drought and protects soil quality. Recently, the interest of nature based tourism, especially
ecotourism has increased strongly; because of the attractions many ecosystems offer. This
kind of tourism promotes the sustainable development, and this is reflected in such a positive
way on the economies of those countries that sponsor projects of nature reserves. In addition
to maintaining ecosystems characteristics, these reasons show the importance of studying
nature reserves and of examining factors that distort their ecological structures and functions.
Climate change is one of the most important factors that play a major role in changing the
characteristics of ecosystems, as it will be exemplified in this thesis with an area in Jordan.
Table 1. The IUCN categories of protected areas (Dudley 2008)
Classification
Ia CATEGORY
Ib CATEGORY
II CATEGORY
III CATEGORY
IV CATEGORY
V
CATEGORY
VI CATEGORY
Description
Strict Nature Reserve: protected area managed mainly for science
Wilderness Area: protected area managed mainly for wilderness
protection
National Park: protected area managed mainly for ecosystem
protection and recreation
NaturalMonument: protected area managed mainly for conservation
of specific natural features
Habitat/Species Management Area: protected area managed mainly
for conservation through management intervention
Protected Landscape/Seascape: protected area managed mainly for
landscape/seascape conservation and recreation
Managed Resource Protected Area: protected area managed mainly
for the sustainable use of natural ecosystems
1 1.2 The climate and vegetation of Jordan
Jordan is a Kingdom located in the Middle East to the northwest of Saudi Arabia, the south of
Syria, the southwest of Iraq, and to the east of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Its climate
varies from Mediterranean in the west to desert in the east and south, thus the country is
generally more or less arid. However, the proximity of the Mediterranean Sea has a major
influence on its climate. The major characteristic of the country's climate is the contrast
between hot, dry, uniform summers and cool variable winters. The rainy season is between
October and May with 80 % of the annual rainfall occurring between December and March.
(The third Jordanian report on UNCCD 2007). Jordan is a relatively small country in terms of
area; but with great diversity in plants due to climate variations. There are four bioclimatic
subdivisions in Jordan (Long 1957), (FAO1957), See Fig (1)

Mediterranean: This region is restricted to the highlands extending from Irbid in the
north to Ras En-Naqab in the south. The altitude ranges from 700-1750 m above sea
level. The rainfall ranges from 300-600 mm. The minimum annual temperature ranges
from 5-10 º C. The soil type is dominated by the red Mediterranean soil (terra rossa)
and the yellow Mediterranean soil (rendzina). This region comprises the most fertile
part of the Kingdom and contains 90 percent of the population.

Irano-Turanian: A narrow strip of variable width that surrounds all the
Mediterranean ecozone except in the north. It is characterized by being treeless. The
vegetation is mainly small shrubs and bushes such as Artemisia herba-alba and
Anabasis syriaca. Altitudes range from 500-700 m, and rainfall ranges from 150-300
mm. Mean annual minimum temperatures range from 5-2º C, and mean annual
maxima range from 15-25º C. Calcareous, arid and semi-arid soils are more likely to
be transported by wind. The vegetation is dominated by woody plant whose resting
buds are on or near the ground named chamaeophytes.

Saharo-Arabian: This is the eastern desert or “Badia” and comprises almost 80% of
Jordan. It is flat except for a few hills or small mountains, the result of volcanic
eruptions. Altitude ranges between 500-700 m. The mean annual rainfall ranges from
50-200 mm, mean annual minimum temperatures range from 2-15º C. Soil is mostly
poor in nutrients, either clay, saline, sandy or calcareous. Vegetation is dominated by
small shrubs and small annuals in the valley beds.

Sudanian: It starts at the northern part of the Dead Sea and ends at the tip of the Gulf
of Aqaba in the south along the Dead Sea depression and WadiAraba. The most
important characteristic of this region is the altitude, including the lowest point on
earth (396 m below sea level near the Dead Sea). Rainfall ranges from 50-100 mm,
the mean annual minimum temperature ranges from 10-29º C, and mean annual
maximum temperatures range from 20 to 35º C. Soils are mostly alluvial, saline,
sandy and granitic. The only inland sand dunes of Jordan are in this region. The
2 vegetation is characterized by Acacia sp. and Ziziphusspina-christi in addition to
some shrubs and annual herbs. (Al-Jaloudy 2001)
Figure 1. Bioclimatic subdivisions in Jordan (Jaloudi 2001)
3 1.3 Nature Conservation in Jordan
The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature RSCN of Jordan is an independent nonprofit non-governmental Organization devoteioned to the conservation of Jordan's natural
resources, which was established in 1966 under the patronage of late king Hussein. Also,
RSCN aims to conserve the biodiversity of Jordan and to integrate its conservation programs
with the socio-economic development and environment within Jordan and neighboring
countries.
RSCN has been given the responsibility by the Government of Jordan to protect the natural
heritage. Also, it has been given the task of creating jobs through eco-tourism, and other
nature businesses. In addition to setting up and managing protected areas to safeguard
Jordan’s natural environment and biodiversity, besides running captive breeding programs to
save endangered species from extinction.
Mujib Reserve
The Mujib Reserve was established in 1985, at the rift valley next to the Dead Sea. It is
located in two bio-geographical regions, the Irano-Turanian and the Sudanian and it measures
about 212 square kilometers, which makes it the largest nature reserve in Jordan, and it
stretches 24 kilometers from the shore of the Dead Sea. Its altitude ranges from 400 meters
below sea level to 800 meters above sea level.
The Mujib Nature Reserve contains a rich biodiversity and a high density of species
containing about 300 species of plants, an important objective of the reserve is to protect
some unique kinds of plants such as orchids, palm trees but also the water sources inside the
reserve. The Mujib Reserve is also an internationally important passage way for migratory
birds.
The climate and vegetation cover of the reserve is divided into four communities, namely
(Eisawi 2008):
i. Sudanian (with Saharo-Arabian) (15% of the total area)
ii. Saharo-Arabian (24% of the total area)
iii. Irano-Turanian (38% of the total area)
iv. Mediterranean transitional zone within Irano-Turanian (15% of the total area)
These communities have the following characteristics:
Mediterranean
The region in the Mujib reserve and stats at the Eastern boundaries of the reserve at an
altitude ranging from 600-900 m a.s.l, However, the altitude ranges changes a little less when
the microclimate conditions permit the Mediterranean elements to grow at other elevations,
4 which is called Mediterranean penetration (Essawi 2008). Moreover, the annual rainfall is
likely to exceed 250 mm in the Mediterranean community.
Irano-Turanian
Confined within the area ranging from 300-600 m above sea level, thus being dryer than the
Mediterranean vegetation type this region has average rainfall ranging from 100-250 mm.
The area has calcareous soils, andthe vegetation is dominated by small shrubs such as
Retamaraetam (White Broom) and Astragalusspinosus (Astragal), the vegetation is mostly
characterized by small, sparsely distributed bushes less than 50 cm tall. This vegetation type
in the Mujib reserve is considered a typical Irano-Turanian region of Jordan.
Sudanian
Within the Irano-Turanian territory this region may start at an altitude of 400 m a.s.l as a
penetration, although in general this typical tropical vegetation type region is encountered at
an altitude of 200m above sea level down to (-400) m below sea level. Typical tropical
vegetation is covered by tree and shrub plants such as Acacia (thorn tree) species. Like
Salvadorapersica, Maeruacrassifolia.
Saharo-Arabian: The mean annual rainfall ranges from 50–200 mm, mean annual
minimum temperatures range from 2–15 ºC. Soil is mostly poor, either clay, sandy or
calcareous. Vegetation is dominated by small shrubs.
1.4 Climate change
“Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition
to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (IPCC 2007). Some of
the driving factors of climatic change operate at time scales of thousands to millions of years,
whereas others fluctuate over a time period of only a few years (Harvey 2000).
Understanding how future climate change will affect species and ecosystems is crucial
to conservation planning. The seriousness of climate impacts on species and ecosystems will
depend on the nature and magnitude of the regional characteristics of climate change as well
as regional ecological conditions (Harrison 2009), since the projected consequences of
climate change varies over the globe .The relationship between climate change and
vegetation is reciprocal, in the sense that high temperatures and low levels of rainfall affect
the nature of the vegetation in both quantity and quality. On the other hand, the vegetation
cover affects climate via alteration of the physical characteristics of the land surface, for
example, albedo, roughness and regional air quality, but also from transpiration. In addition,
vegetation decline negatively affects carbon sequestration (Brovkin 2002). Also, maintaining
the vegetation helps to maintain the stability of the climate and helps to reduce the impact of
global warming, on the basis that green spaces work as a carbon sink (Conner 2007). Arid
ecosystems are the most vulnerable to loss of vegetation cover causing desertification
5 (Dregne 1986) while climate change affects the whole world; the poorest people are expected
to suffer the most according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Many
developing countries are situated in some of the most arid areas in the world, which may also
refer to the lack of facilities to combat drought, in addition to human activities, poor
management, overgrazing and several socio-economic factors such as poverty. However,
protected areas are one of the efficient ways to make carbon locked in the vegetation cover;
knowing that protected areas store 15 per cent of terrestrial carbon and supply ecosystem
services (Campbell et al. 2008).These areas are protected in an orderly and planed manner by
governmental institutions or NGO’s.
2. Rationale and Aim of the Study
The rapid rate of deterioration in vegetation cover in arid regions is due to drought, climate
change and other environmental and socioeconomic factors that cause desertification, e.g.
over-grazing, hence the importance of studying these variables, given that the world’s soils
hold more organic carbon than that held by theentire atmosphere as CO2 and vegetation
combined (UNCCD2007).
This study aims to highlight the behavior of climate variablesaccording to the data currently
available as exemplified by a specific area in Jordan, and to analyze the relationship among
them, as well as the analysis of the study findings to form a realistic picture of the impact of
climate change in that region. Furthermore, it will try to give future indications for the
mentioned arid regions, besides a discussion of overgrazing as an important factor in
evaluating the process of vegetation change in these areas.
2.1 Research questions
● Is there decline in the vegetation index during the study period?
●Is any change in vegetation cover correlated with changes in meteorological variables?
●Are there any relationships among the climate parameters, observed during 1983-2001 and
what type of relationships?
6 2.2 Hypotheses



This study hypothesizes that there is a decrease in the level of rainfall and an increase
in temperatures during the recent decades in the study area.
A second hypothesis was that climate variables such as temperature and rainfall have
a direct impact on the vegetation cover, which negatively affects the diversity and
abundance of this vegetation cover.
Finally, this study hypothesizes that the presence and protection of natural reserves
reduces the deterioration and decline of the vegetation cover.
3. Materials and Methods
This study relied on a variety of information and data, mainly climate data from the Mujeb
nature reserve in Jordan during the period 1983-2001. The climate data include: precipitation
measured in mm/year, maximum and minimum air temperature measured in °C, humidity
(expressed as number of humid days which are those with a relative humidity of more than
70%), wind speed measured in m/s and cloud cover measured in okta. In addition, the
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was empolyed to determine the density and
change in the vegetation cover. Other information and data is related to the topography and
vegetation diversity as expressed in the discription of the ecosystems in Mujib reserve. Also,
this study used a map representing the bioclimatic subdivisions in Jordan to show the types of
the vegetation. Excel and graphical representations were used beside some statistical
determiners such as the regression and correlation factor to determine the behavior of the
climatic factors over the past recent decades.
3.1 Sources of Data
The data sources of this study mainly taken from The Royal Society for the Conservation of
Nature RSCN, which addressed the precise description of the characteristics of the study area
which in turn deal with the Jordan Meteorological Department, and the Ministry of
Agriculture of Jordan.
As for the data concerning the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) taken from
NASA and the U.S., space agency (Jee-Hoon Jeong, Department of Earth Sciences, the
University of Gothenburg) has also been used with some experts in the field of the nature
reservesby displays the data statistically and read their behavior and try to find a relationship
linking to other climatic data. The specialists have also been in cooperation with the Royal
Society for the Protection of Nature, so the study mainly relied on RSCN and on the figures
and data of the region in which the study took place.Instruments used to measure the climatic
variables at Jordan Metrological Department are anemometer for the wind speed,
psychometer for relative humidity, standard rain gauge for precipitation, and thermometer for
the temperature.
7 3.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Definition
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a simple numerical indicator that can
be used to analyze remote sensing measurements from space (EARSC). NDVI provides a
crude estimate of vegetation density and a mean of monitoring changes in vegetation over
time (Kidwell 1990). NDVI has many uses, including screening for drought and productivity
of agricultural land and determining the density of the vegetation cover, by observing the
distinct wavelengths of visible and near-infrared sunlight reflected by the plants (Weier and
Herring 1999). When sunlight hit the land, some of the wavelengths of this spectrum are
absorbed and other wavelengths are reflected. The pigment in plant leaves strongly absorbs
certain wavelengths of visible light (from 0.4 to 0.7 µm) for use in photosynthesis. The
possible range of NDVI values is between -1 and 1, but values less than zero is neglected, the
typical range is about 0.1 to 0.6 (for an abundant vegetation cover area).
The cell structure of leaves reflects strongly near-infrared light from 0.7 to 1.1 µm (Kidwell
1990). Because free standing water as oceans, seas, lakes and rivers have low reflectance in
both spectral bands. This results in very low positive or even slightly negative NDVI values;
however, soils generally exhibit a near-infrared spectral reflectance larger than the red, and
thus tend to generate small positive NDVI values between 0.1 to 0.2. NDVI is calculated by
dividing the difference of two spectral reflectance values by the summation of them.
NDVI = (NIR - VIS)/(NIR + VIS)
Where
NIR = reflectance in the near-infrared wavelength band
VIS = reflectance in the visible light wavelength band
4. RESULTS
After performing all required calculations to analyzethe temporal variation of the climate
NDVI and metrological variables (Precipitation, Mean Air Temperature, Cloud Cover, Wind
Speed and Number of Humid Days) and knowing the effect of these parameters on the
vegetation cover. All the figures shown below were made to indicatethe behavior of these
parameters (yearly mean values) with the time at study period 1983-2001, and determined the
linear regression between these parameters and year with correlation coefficient and
statistical significance for these regression to detect any trends in the time series.
8 Figure 2. Annual (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1983-2001
4.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
From Figure 2 it is noticeable that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the
years 1983-1992 (N = 10) had a weak increasing trend during the first half of the study period
and the year 1992 had the highest NDVI (0.178), while lowest NDVI was in year 1985
(0.132). The correlation coefficient NDVI was (R = 0.505) and the trend was marginally
significant (P = 0.08). For thesecond part of the period, years 1992-2001 (N = 10) NDVI
remarkably decreased, the year 1994 has the highest NDVI (0.207), while lowest NDVI
(0.0932) was in year 2001.The correlation coefficient of NDVI with year during this part of
the study period was (R = 0.885) and the trend was statistically marginally significant (P =
0.09).
4.2 Mean Precipitation
From figure 3 it is noticeable that the mean precipitation for the years 1983-1992 (N = 10)
clearly increased. The year 1991 had the highest mean precipitation (53.2), while lowest
value was in year 1987 (19.6). The correlation coefficient for precipitation versus year was (R
= 0.556) and the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.073). For the years 1992-2001 (N =
10) has remarkably decreased, the year 1994 has the highest precipitation (43.2), while lowest
precipitation was in year 1995 (10.3). The correlation coefficient precipitation was (R =
9 0.453) and the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.061). The general pattern of
precipitation was similar to that of NDVI, but the year-to-year variation of mean precipitation
was larger for precipitation than for NDVI.
Figure 3. Mean Precipitation for the period 1983-2001
Figure 4. Annually Mean Precipitation with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
10 4.3 Precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
Relationship
From Figure 4 it is noticeable that the relationship between and NDVI and precipitation
behaves logically ,there was an indication of a positive relationship between the NDVI and
precipitation , it can be notice that when the Precipitation value had decrease the NDVI is
decreasing and versa verse when the Precipitation is increasing the NDVI value increased.
The correlation coefficient (R = 0.478), the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.091)
4.4 Annual Mean Air Temperature (TMEAN)
Figure 5. Annual Mean Air Temperature for the period 1983-2001
From Figure 5 it is noticeable that the annual mean temperature for the years 1983-2001 (N =
19) has remarkably increased. The 1999 has the highest temperature mean (17.6 °C), while
the lowest mean was in year 1992 (14.8 °C). The correlation coefficient annual mean
temperature was (R = 0.682). The trend was statistically significant (P = 0.05).
4.5 Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature (TMAX,
TMIN)
From figure 6 it is noticeable that the daily mean maximum temperature for the years 19832001 (N = 19) has noticeably increased. The 1997 has the highest temperature mean (23.0
°C), while the lowest mean was in year 1992 (20.4). The correlation coefficient daily mean
maximum temperature was (R = 0.585). The trend was none significant (P = 0.848). Also it is
noticeably that the daily mean minimum temperature for the years 1983-2001 (N = 19) has
11 not increased. The 1996 has the highest temperature mean (10.6 °C), while the lowest mean
was in year 1992 (9.21). The correlation coefficient for the annual mean temperature was R =
0.409 and was not significant (P = 0.752).
Figure 6. Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature (TMAX, TMIN) for the period 1983-2001
Figure 7. Average Cloud Cover for period 1983-2001
4.6 Cloud Cover
Form figure 7 it is obvious that the mean cloud cover for the 1983-2003 had no trend. The
year 1991 had the highest cloud mean (2.15 okta), while lowest means was in year 1989 (1.4
okta). The correlation coefficient between mean cloud cover and year was (R = 0.0469) and
the relationship versus time was not significant (P = 0.972).
12 Figure 8. Average Wind Speed for the period 1983-2001
4.7 Wind Speed
From Figure 8 it can be inferred that the wind speed did show a negative trend during the
period 1983-2001. The year 1990 had the highest annual mean wind speed (5.18 m/s), while
the lowest mean was in the year 1998 (1.73 m/s). The correlation coefficient between annual
mean of the wind speed and time was (R = 0.576) and the relationship was statistically
significant (P = 0.008).
Figure 9. Monthly Average Number of Humid Days per year for the period 1983-2001
4.8 Number of Humid Days
From Figure 9 it can be inferred that the annual number of humid days for the years 19832001 has a moderate significant increasing trend (P = 0.017). The year 1992 had the highest
number of humid mean days (8.92), while lowest means was in a year 2001 (2.75). The
13 correlation coefficient (R) between number of humid days and time was 0.346 and the
increase with time was statistically significant (P = 0.017).
Figure 10. Annually Mean Air Temperature with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
4.9 Mean Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) Relationship
From figure 10 it is noticeable that the NDVI versus Annually Mean Air Temperature was
negative with a correlation coefficient (R) 0.594 and clearly, statistical significant (P =
0.007). It is noted that data were concentrated between (16.0 °C) to (16.5 °C).
5. Discussion
5.1 Climate Change and Vegetation Cover
There are many reasons for desertification, some could be natural and some human, and these
reasons might interact negatively to cause bigger problems, like population growth for
instance in barren areas, which leads to draining of natural resources for the sake of trading,
grazing and horizontal expansion of the population at the expense of cultivable areas along
with other erosion factors (Safarini 2002).
The problem of desertification in the Middle East countries is potentially very large. The
greatest risk of desertification, 7.6 out of 10 on a scale produced using various desertification
indicators, is in the subtropical desert regions – North Africa, the countries of the Middle
East, Australia, South West China and the western edge of South America (Núñez 2010). The
14 elevated risk in this region is partly due to the nature conditions, since these regions are
mostly more or less arid, and the amount of vegetation is scarce.
Results gained from the study site by NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index),
indicates a clear reduction in the density and distribution of vegetation since the beginning of
the 1990's and towards the end of the study period (Figure 11) after the rise of the index
during the 1980's. The results were in line and complying with the findings of a report of
FAO conference 2002 that Jordan and the surrounding countries such as Iraq and Syria
generally witnessed in the 1990s a decline in agricultural productions a result of successive
droughts. (Tehran Process for Low Cover Forest Countries 2002)
The behavior of the climatic factors such as, humidity, precipitation, and temperature, over
the study period and the test of the relationship of climatic factors on vegetation cover as
represented by NDVI, that the increased temperature had the strongest impact amongst other
climatic factors that the research have examined on the deterioration of the vegetation cover.
On the other hand the increasing temperatures came in conjunction with increased humidity,
which indicates an expectable result at this point taking into consideration the region's nature.
Remarkably, wind speed decreased steadily during the time of the study. When the
precipitation began to decrease in the 1990’s the vegetation started to deteriorate, which
explains the decline in NDVI during this time period. When studying the relations of the
climatic factors it was discovered that temperature is directly proportional with time, on the
contrary of the amount of precipitation, which was decreasing since the beginning of
the1990’s. Moreover, all the factors, which were submitted to statistical operations, were in
the beginning of the 1990’s, which was a turning point at that time to radical changes in
vegetation cover and a clear change in climatic factors.
Jordan is not considered as a major contributor to the problem of climate change, and it is not
among the first ten Arab countries producing greenhouse gases (Michel 2009). Nevertheless,
the problem of global warming has a global impact that makes Jordan and all countries in the
region under its effect.
However, when studying and analyzing the effect of climatic factors, there was a statistical
relationship between the decline of vegetation and increasing temperatures. On the other
hand, the statistical results came in line with the Second International report issued by the
Jordanian government submitted to the United Nations framework convention on climate
change (UNFCCC) 2009. According to the same report a long-term study involving 19
stations all over Jordan from (1961-2005), it was shown that both maximum and minimum
temperature time series in the selected 19 meteorological stations had significant increasing
trends. This is partially in line with the results of the present study, whereas the results of the
report came in accordance with increasing annual maximum temperatures in the study.
Increasing trends in the annual maximum temperature range between 0.3°C and 1.8°C, while
The increasing trends in the annual minimum temperature range between 0.4°C and 2.8°C,
which are obviously greater than maximum temperature trends .There is also a decrease in
precipitation in the majority of metrological stations over 45 years. In addition, the report
15 pointed out that the above results will have negative impacts on agriculture, health and water
sectors.
5.2 Overgrazing
Overgrazing is considered as one of the most pressurizing practices on the vegetation cover
of the Mujib reserve, this vegetation cover is palatable to digest by the livestock.
Nevertheless, the vegetation cover of the Mujib reserve is the only source to the owners of
livestock, since it is difficult to graze in the residential areas and the reserves’ surroundings of
agricultural areas. The study of the carrying capacity of the biosphere of Mujib reserve
showed a lack of productivity, as it presented that the productivity of one ha does not surpass
1000-1400 grams of edible fodder (Mahfuz 2010). This has a bad influence on the natural
regeneration, besides the economic income of the grazed areas and the users of the area of
livestock owners.
There is no doubt that the activities of overgrazing have a bad effect on the vegetation cover.
These can lead to extinction of some species and deterioration of many more, which may
cause a deterioration of the conditions for animal species that are connected to the extinct
plants, or substitute species with new ones, and thus influence the ecological balance. The
population of the Mujib reserve and its surroundings is about 30000. These people have a
direct connection to the reserve, and the latter three decades have witnessed a great
development of their civil society, which lead into a huge change in their lives. It has
transferred them from wandering shepherds and residents of tents to the fastness of cement
houses. This change was convoyed by the development of the infrastructure, like water and
electricity and paving of the streets. In addition, access to schools and hospitals became easy
for them; hence these revolutionary changes had an enormous impact on the lifestyle of these
communities and on many levels. Before 1958 for instance, the shepherds never settled in one
area for more than 15 days to graze, they would then move to other areas, thus would protect
the pastures from overgrazing. However today, they stay for as long as three months, which
negatively influences the productivity and renewal of the grazing lands.
There is a relationship between grazing on the one hand and precipitation decrease and
temperature increase on the other hand, since they reinforce each other. Whereas precipitation
decrease had a negative impact on the vegetation cover, which is already scarce and this in
turn affects the numbers and distribution of livestock in the region. On the other side,
overgrazing has a very negative effect in arid areas, especially the study region, knowing that
the vegetation cover of that region is very weak and fragile that the soil is more likely to lose
its characteristics down to erosion. Moreover, in addition to precipitation decrease and
temperature increase, overgrazing is significant in explaining the decrease of the vegetation
index.
16 5.3 Vegetation types fragility
All areas (east and south of Jordan) receiving an annual precipitation less than 350 mm are
vulnerable to climate change (Said Damhoureyeh, University of Jordan). Since these areas
are stressed under recurrent drought and over exploitation, this could lead to irremediable
vegetation loss. Jordan climate is arid Mediterranean, so any change that will result in less
water and warmer weather will have a great impact. Most of the rangelands in the iranoturranian region will be most fragile, similar to the Wadiaraba. However, the mountain areas
will be less affected, but will be affected, since they are already receiving low precipitation
and have low vegetation (Said Damhoureyeh, University of Jordan).
5.4 Methodological limitations
The research has faced many obstacles in different stages. To begin with, the collection of
information and data caused administrative and bureaucratic problems, for example,
obtaining information regarding overgrazing from the Ministry of Agriculture requires
administrative approvals. In the same context, the data was not on the level of ambition, in
terms of quantity and quality, it was hoped that the study would cover larger samples, which
would increase the scientific accuracy of the results. This limited sample size would weaken
the ability of statistical tools to extrapolate the results into the future. On the other hand, there
were few researches on climate change and its impact on the vegetation of the region for
which the study was made, besides the lack of scientific research on the issue of global
warming in Middle East in general.
6. CONCLUSIONS
The most important conclusions from this study were:






There is a relationship between climate and vegetation, in the sense that high temperature
and low levels of rainfall affect the abundant of the vegetation cover.
There was a decrease in precipitation in the second half of the study time period.
In general, there was an increase in temperatures especially in the recent years covered by
the study.
There was a decrease in (NDVI) for that region concurrent with temperature increase and
precipitation decrease.
Overgrazing has a negative impact on vegetation cover in the Mujib reserve and in
combination with an altered climate this could lead to desertification what means the loss
of its biodiversity and its economic and tourist significance.
There was a remarkable decrease in wind speed along the study.
17 Acknowledgement
I am highly indebted and grateful to my supervisor Prof. Håkan Plejel, for his continued
support and patience to complete my project. Special thanks to Dr .Jee-HoonJeong,Earth
Science Department , the University Gothenburg – Sweden. I wish to thank also The Royal
Society for the Conservation of Nature (RSCN)- Jordan specially Eng . Enas Sakkijha the
Head of Research & Survey Section, Ehab Eid the Project Manager , Hussien M. Kisswani ,
National Climate Change Officer from Climate Change Unit, Dr. Mahfouz Abu-Zanat
,Department of Animal Production University of Jordan and Said Damoureyeh, Biology
Department at the University of Jordan. Also, Dr. Salam Bash AlMaliky , AlMustansiriya
University -Iraq , Ohio University –USA , Eng. ShukriNamer ,Koya University –Iraq.
Furthermore, I wish to express my gratitude towards my parents and my family how I would
like to extend my sincere thanks to all of them for their encouragement, assistant installing
my confidence to complete the project. At last but not the least I want to thank my friends
who motivated me.
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20