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Representing Uncertainties & Selecting Scenarios AIACC Training Workshop on Development and Application of Integrated Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessments Tyndall Centre, UEA, Norwich UK April 15-24 2002 Roger N. Jones Atmospheric Research Coverage • Sources of uncertainties • Implications of each for I, A & V • How to address each type of uncertainty • Risk assessment framework • Criteria for selecting scenarios Atmospheric Research IPCC 1994 1 DEFINE PROBLEM 2 SELECT METHOD 3 TEST METHOD/SENSITIVITY 4 SELECT SCENARIOS 5 ASSESS BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS ASSESS SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS 6 ASSESS AUTONOMOUS ADJUSTMENTS 7 EVALUATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Atmospheric Research Uncertainty explosion Emission scenarios Global climate sensitivity Regional changes Climate variability Biophysical impacts Socio-economic impacts Atmospheric Research Likelihood Probability can be expressed in two ways: 1. Return period / frequency-based (Climate variability) 2. Single event (Mean climate change, one-off events) Atmospheric Research Return period / frequency-based probability Recurrent or simple event Where a continuous variable reaches a critical level, or threshold. Eg. Extreme temperature (max & min), Extreme rainfall, heat stress, 1 in 100 year flood Discrete or complex event An event caused by a combination of variables (an extreme weather event) Eg. tropical cyclone/hurricane/typhoon, ENSO event Atmospheric Research Hot cows and heat stress THI between 72 and 78 THI between 79 and 88 mild stress moderate stress THI between 89 and 98 THI above 98 severe stress DEAD COWS! Atmospheric Research Frequency of exceeding heat index threshold 90.0 THI Units 80.0 THI78 THI72 70.0 60.0 50.0 1/10/98 31/10/98 30/11/98 30/12/98 29/01/99 28/02/99 30/03/99 Date Atmospheric Research Frequency-based probability distributions Atmospheric Research Single-event probability Singular or unique event An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over Atmospheric Research What is the probability of climate change? 1. Will climate change happen? • IPCC (2001) suggests that climate change is occurring with a confidence of 66% to 90% 2. What form will it take? Uncertainties are due to: • future rates of greenhouse gas emissions • sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases • regional variations in climate • decadal-scale variability • changes to short-term variability Atmospheric Research Range of uncertainty M1 UNQUANTIFIABLE UNCERTAINTY M2 M3 M4 QUANTIFIABLE RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY UNQUANTIFIABLE UNCERTAINTY TOTAL RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY Atmospheric Research CO2 emissions and concentrations Atmospheric Research Simulated global warming: A2 Atmospheric Research Global warming Atmospheric Research Risk exercise - estimating joint probabilities • Take a gold coin (preferably 1 pound coin) • Heads represents low end (1.4°C), tails represents high end (5.8°C) • Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails • Which outcome is most likely? Atmospheric Research What is a hazard? Atmospheric Research Typology of extreme climate events Description Variable Measure Exceeding critical level on a continuous scale Extreme rainfall Temperature Frequency Return period Sequence Duration Complex Weather events events combining multiple variables and/or resulting in multiple impacts Tropical cyclones ENSO events Drought Frequency magnitude Severity of impacts Singular events Cessation of deep- Probability ocean circulation magnitude of Ice sheet collapse impact Type Simple events A possible future climatic state with potentially extreme outcomes Atmospheric Research Current climate Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Vulnerability (drought) Atmospheric Research Future climate - no adaptation Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Vulnerability (drought) Atmospheric Research Future climate with adaptation Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Adaptation Planning horizon Vulnerability (drought) Policy Horizon Atmospheric Research Linking key climatic variables to impacts Climate variable Impacted activity Performance criteria Atmospheric Research 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 3 8 24 23 29 28 11 18 13 17 14 24 27 20 27 2 Health 2 3 1 2 1 Industry, coal & power 2 3 3 2 2 3 Air quality 3 2 3 3 Waste 1 2 1 2 Dryland/irrigation salinity Harbour Coastal water supply Beach 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 Marine (esp. fisheries) Horses 1 1 2 1 2 1 Urban infrastructure 2 2 1 Forest & biodiversity 2 1 2 2 2 River management 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 Wine 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 Cropping 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Inland water supply 1 3 Grazing Rainfall - average Rainfall - extreme Rainfall - variability Drought Temperature - average Temperature - max Temperature - min CO2 Cloud Pressure Humidity Wind Evaporation Soil moisture Stream flow Flood Watertable Water salinity Irrigation Sea level Storm surge Waves Lightning Hail Fire Dairy Poultry Cross impacts analysis 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 30 9 14 18 16 21 30 23 28 20 24 16 11 3 1 10 16 10 20 17 29 12 17 13 12 7 8 3 7 12 Atmospheric Research Cross impacts analysis Climate and related variables (forcing) Activities (sensitivity) High Rainfall - extreme Flood Drought Temperature - max Rainfall - variability Rainfall - average Temperature - average Soil moisture Urban infrastructure Cropping Wine River management Forest & biodiversity Inland water supply Dairy Grazing Dryland/irrigation salinity Moderate Stream flow Water salinity Temperature - min Wind Irrigation Watertable Sea level Fire CO2 Humidity Evaporation Industry, coal & power Marine (esp. fisheries) Coastal water supply Health Harbour Waste Beach Horses Low Waves Storm surge Hail Cloud Lightning Pressure Air quality Poultry Atmospheric Research Characterising vulnerability Presentations in this workshop suggest two ways of characterising vulnerability: 1. In response to a fixed climate hazard e.g. temperature, peak wind speed 2. As a measure where the degree of harm cannot be tolerated, and that can be linked to a given climatic condition (threshold approach) Atmospheric Research Thresholds A non-linear change in a measure or system, signalling a physical or behavioural change Climate related thresholds are used to mark a level of hazard Atmospheric Research Thresholds Biophysical Behavioural • • • • • • • • • • Tropical cyclone Coral bleaching ENSO event Island formation Island removal Legal/regulatory Profit/loss Cultural Agricultural Critical Atmospheric Research Thresholds • Link socio-economic criteria with biophysical criteria through a value judgement • Provide a fixed point against which to measure climate uncertainty • Directly link a particular impact to climatic variables • Introduce criteria as defined by stakeholders into an impact assessment Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds A level considered to represent an unacceptable degree of harm This is a value judgement and may be decided by stakeholders, be a legal requirement, a safety requirement, a management threshold etc Atmospheric Research Metrics for measuring costs • • • • • Monetary losses (gains) Loss of life Change in quality of life Species and habitat loss Distributional equity Atmospheric Research Planning horizons 2000 Election cycles/profit & loss Agriculture (whole farm planning) Plant breeding (new crops) 2020 2040 Forest lease agreements Pulp plantations Generational succession New irrigation projects Coastal/tourism infrastructure Tree crops National parks Airport design life 2060 Large dams Major urban infrastructure 2080 Intergenerational equity 2100 Long-term biodiversity Bridge design life Atmospheric Research Probabilistic structure of climate uncertainties Variable(s) Critical threshold Critical threshold Time Atmospheric Research What is a risk? Atmospheric Research What is a risk? Two uses 1. In general language 2. A specific operational meaning Atmospheric Research Characterising risk UNEP definition risk = hazard + vulnerability vulnerability = exposure + susceptibility to loss risk = f(hazard,likelihood) Atmospheric Research Placing thresholds within scenario uncertainty A B global climate sensitivity emission scenarios regional variability range of possible impacts Atmospheric Research Impact thresholds 4.0 Global Warming (°C) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Threshold A 1.5 1.0 0.5 Threshold B 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Atmospheric Research Probabilistic structure of climate uncertainties Variable(s) Critical threshold Critical threshold Time Atmospheric Research Production effects THI between 72 and 78 mild stress no stress THI between 79 and 88 moderate stress mild stress Atmospheric Research Coral bleaching • Caused by SST above a threshold • Expels xosanthellae algae • Severity related to days above bleaching threshold • Corals may recover or die Atmospheric Research Macquarie River Catchment Macquarie Marshes Major Areas of Abstraction Burrendong Dam Macquarie R Contributing Area Area ~ 75,000 km2 P = 1000 to <400 mm. Major dams: Burrendong and Windamere Water demands: irrigation agriculture; Macquarie Marshes; town supply Most flow from upper catchment runoff Most demand in the lower catchment Windamere Dam Atmospheric Research Ranges of seasonal rainfall change for the MDB Summer Winter -40 -20 0 20 Rainfall Change (%) 40 2030 2070 Autumn Spring -40 -20 0 20 Rainfall Change (%) 40 Atmospheric Research P and Ep changes for Macquarie catchment Change for 1ºC global warming (%) 16.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0 -16.0 J F M A M J Evaporation (Ep) J A S O N D Rainfall (P) In change per degree global warming Atmospheric Research Changes to MAF for 9 models in 2030 (%) Based on IPCC 1996 Low Mid 0 0 -8 -8 High 0 -10 -16 -16 -20 -24 -30 B1 at 1.7°C 0.55°C A1 at 2.5°C 0.91°C A1T at 4.2°C 1.27°C Atmospheric Research Climate change – flow relationship flow = a ( atan (Ep / P ) – b Standard error < 2% Atmospheric Research Sampling strategy • The range of global warming in 2030 was 0.55– 1.27°C with a uniform distribution. The range of change in 2070 was 1.16–3.02°C. • Changes in P were taken from the full range of change for each quarter from the sample of nine climate models. • Changes in P for each quarter were assumed to be independent of each other • The difference between samples in any consecutive quarter could not exceed the largest difference observed in the sample of nine climate models. • Ep was partially dependent on P (dEp = 5.75 – 0.53dP, standard error = 2.00, randomly sampled using a Gaussian distribution) Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Changes to Burrendong Dam storage 2030 Cumulative Probability (%) 15 -40 -30 -10 -20 <100 0 10 <95 5 10 <90 <80 <70 0 20 <60 -5 <50 -10 -5 0 5 10 Rainfall change (%) Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Changes to bulk allocations for irrigation 2030 15 -30 -20 -10 Cumulative Probability (%) <100 10 <95 0 <90 5 <80 10 <70 0 <60 -5 <50 -10 -5 0 5 10 Rainfall change (%) Atmospheric Research Potential evaporation change (%) Changes to Macquarie Marsh inflows 2030 15 -40 -30 -20 -10 Cumulative Probability (%) <100 10 <95 0 <90 5 10 <80 <70 0 20 -5 <60 <50 -10 -5 0 5 10 Rainfall change (%) Atmospheric Research Probabilities of flow changes impacts view Range of possible outcomes Atmospheric Research Critical thresholds Macquarie River Catchment Irrigation 5 consecutive years below 50% allocation of water right Wetlands 10 consecutive years below bird breeding events Atmospheric Research Irrigation allocations and wetland inflows - historical climate and 1996 rules 100 Flow (Gl x 10) 80 1,000,000 60 40 100,000 20 10,000 1890 Irrigation allocation (%) 10,000,000 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Year Allocations Marshes Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (irrigation) Sequences below threshold (years) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of total years below threshold +5% Change in mean average allocation 0 -10% -15% -30% -40% 1 1 -45% 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 6 12 1 2 2 4 5 7 38 50 2 1 5 10 1 4 13 2 1 6 11 22 23 34 1 4 1 6 4 1 5 1 2 4 58 64 Atmospheric Research Threshold exceedance as a function of change in flow (bird breeding) Sequences below threshold (years) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent of total years below threshold +5% 0 Change in MAF -10% -15% -30% 1 1 1 1 1 1 -40% 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 -50% 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 4 4 1 2 1 7 3 1 2 3 4 7 1 3 4 2 5 2 4 3 2 3 40 45 52 56 63 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 71 79 Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2030 DDR N or m a l FD R -10 -20 -30 C um u la tiv e P rob ability 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 10 0 -40 C ha nge in sup ply (% ) B u r ren d on g M a rsh es Irr ig ation Atmospheric Research Risk analysis results Macquarie 2070 DDR Normal FDR 100 90 Cumulative Probability 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 20 -20 0 -40 -60 -80 Change in supply (%) Burrendong Marshes Irrigation Atmospheric Research Bayesian analysis results Macquarie 2030 100 90 Cumulative Probability 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Change in supply (%) Standard W&R warming All Atmospheric Research Bayesian analysis results Macquarie 2070 100 90 Cumulative Probability 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Change in supply (%) Standard W&R warming All Atmospheric Research Characterising risk as a function of global warming The standard “7 step method” of impact assessment progresses from climate to impacts to adaptation. This infers that we must predict the likeliest climate before we can predict the likeliest impacts. Can we get around this limitation? Atmospheric Research Characterising risk There is another way. Impacts = function(Gw) Impacts = function(Gw,t,p) p(impacts) = no. of scenarios < threshold = risk Atmospheric Research Risk exercise - estimating threshold exceedance: sea level rise • Recover coin from greedy presenter • Heads represents low end (9 cm), tails represents high end (88cm) • The group chooses two critical thresholds • Flip coin 7 times and record the number of heads and tails • Which outcome is most likely? Atmospheric Research 6 5 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 Frequency (%) 5 Probability of threshold exceedance 6 Global warming (°C) Global warming (°C) Characterising the risk of global warming 0 50 100 Frequency (%) Increasing likelihood of global warming Atmospheric Research Characterising the risk of global warming 5 Global warming (°C) Probability of threshold exceedance 6 Risks to Large Negative Net Higher Many Increase for most Negative regions in all metrics 4 3 Markets + and - 2 1 Negative for some Risks to Some Increase regions 0 0 50 Frequency (%) Most people worse off Very low IV V 100 I I II III IV V II III Risks to unique and threatened systems Risks from extreme climate events Distribution of impacts Aggregate impacts Risks from large-scale discontinuities Atmospheric Research Long-term planning Short-term policy response 1. Enhance adaptive capacity so that the current coping range expands, reducing present vulnerability. 2. Develop this capacity in such a way that the longer-term risks to climate change are also reduced. Atmospheric Research Basic principles • Pay greater attention to recent climate experience. Link climate, impacts and outcomes to describe the coping range. • Address adaptation to climate variability and extremes as part of reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change. • Assess risk according to how far climate change, in conjunction with other drivers of change, may drive activities beyond their coping range. • Focus on present and future vulnerability to ground future adaptation policy development in present-day experience. • Consider current development policies and proposed future activities and investments, especially those that may increase vulnerability. Atmospheric Research Foresighting your project • Visualise how you will present the results (graph, text, table, animation) • Rehearse how you will communicate the uncertainties • Anticipate questions upon presentation or review • How will you engage different stakeholders? Atmospheric Research