Download Federated States of - WHO Western Pacific Region

Climate Change Country Profile:
Federated States of Micronesia
1. Country description
1.1 Geography
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Location: north Pacific Ocean; north-east of Indonesia
Four major island groups: Kosrae, Pohnpei, Chuuk and Yap
Made up of 607 islands
Land area: 702 km2
Coastline: 6112 km
Terrain: islands vary geologically from high mountainous islands to low, coral
atolls
• Land elevation: lowest point is sea level; highest point is 791 metres
• Natural resources: forests, marine products, deep sea-bed minerals and
phosphate
Figure 1. Map of the Federated States of Micronesia
1.2 Demographics
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Population: 107 862 in July 2007
Chuuk: 53 595 (50%)
Pohnpei: 34 486 (32%)
Yap: 11 241 (11%)
Kosrae: 7686 (7%)
Population distribution: 17% (18 000) live in the outer islands/atolls
Figure 2. Population projection for the Federated States of Micronesia
Population (thousands)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Year
Source: World Bank data
1.3 Economic and industrial development characteristics
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Natural resources and environment are the country’s living wealth.
Economy is small and largely dependent on foreign aid.
Dominated by large public sector
Main industries: fisheries, agriculture and tourism
Gross domestic product: government (42%), wholesale/retail (22%),
subsistence (16%), fisheries (2%), tourism (2%), commercial agriculture (1%),
others (15%)
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1.4 Climate (climatic zones, trends in temperature and precipitation)
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Tropical; heavy year-round rainfall, especially in the eastern islands
(Pohnpei & Kosrae)
• Average annual rainfall: 110–400 inches per year (110 in Yap and Chuuk to
400 in Pohnpei and Kosrae)
• Trade winds: prevail from November to April
• Periods of weaker winds occur from May to November
• Natural hazards: storms and typhoons (June to December), more severe in
the western islands (Yap and Chuuk)
• Periods of drought and excessive rainfall associated with El Niño
• The likelihood of many disasters will increase as a consequence of climate
change.
• The following climate conditions are potential sources of risk to human
health: extreme rainfall events, drought, high sea levels, strong winds and
extreme high air temperatures.
• The climate risk profile for the Federated States of Micronesia shows that (1)
rainfall, (2) wind, (3) temperature and (4) sea level extremes will all increase as
a result of global warming, as will the (5) frequency of drought.
(1) Rainfall
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Using data for Pohnpei, Figure 3 illustrates how the likelihood (0 = zero
chance; 1 = statistical certainty) of a daily rainfall of 250 mm will increase
over the remainder of the present century.
Figure 3. Daily rainfall predictions for Pohnpei
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0.9
0.8
Likelihood
0.7
0.6
Present Day
2025
2050
2100
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
Time Horizon (yr)
3
35
40
45
50
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Figure 4 below depicts the impact of global warming on the likelihood (0 =
zero chance; 1 = statistical certainty) of an hourly rainfall of 200 mm for
Pohnpei. Values for present day were based on observed data for 1980 to 2002,
with gaps.
Figure 4. Hourly rainfall predictions for Pohnpei
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0.9
0.8
Likelihood
0.7
0.6
Present Day
2025
0.5
2050
2100
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Time Horizon (yr)
(2)
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Drought
Figure 5 presents, for Pohnpei, the number of months in each year (1953 to
2003) and each decade for which the observed precipitation was below 5%. A
monthly rainfall below 5% is used as an indicator of drought.
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10
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Y e a rly 5 %
Decadal 5%
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4
2
0
19
53
19
56
19
59
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62
19
65
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68
19
71
19
74
19
77
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80
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83
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86
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89
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92
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95
19
98
20
01
Number of Months per Year or Decade
Figure 5. Prevalence of drought in Pohnpei (1953–2003)
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(3)
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High sea levels
Figure 6 shows daily mean values of sea level for Pohnpei, relative to mean
sea level. There is large inter-annual variability in sea level. Low sea levels
are associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; commonly referred
to as simply El Niño), while exceptionally high sea levels occurred in October
1988. The sea level elevations are relative to surveyed mean sea level.
Figure 6. Daily mean values of sea level for Pohnpei (1974–2003)
600
500
400
Sea Level (mm)
300
200
100
0
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
-2 0 0
1976
1974
-1 0 0
-3 0 0
-4 0 0
2. Burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes
2.1 Data on current climate-sensitive disease burdens
Climate-sensitive diseases include heat-related diseases, vectorborne diseases,
waterborne diseases, diseases from urban air pollution, and diseases related to extreme
weather conditions such as floods, droughts, windstorms and fires.
(1)
Vectorborne diseases
• Dengue outbreaks in Kosrae (1996) and Yap (2004, 2007)
• Zika outbreak in Yap (2007)
• Malaria is a concern.
(2)
Waterborne diseases
• Cholera outbreaks in Chuuk (1983, 1989) and Pohnpei (2000) (19 deaths)
• Respiratory diseases (acute respiratory infections [ARI])
• Landslides caused 20 deaths in Pohnpei (1997) and 40 deaths in Chuuk (2002)
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2.2 Potential impacts of climate change on health burden, i.e. qualitative
and quantitative projections of future health burdens
Information is not available.
2.3 Information on particularly vulnerable populations
(1) Outer-island people are most vulnerable because:
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they are isolated by distance and by infrequent and unreliable sea and air
transportation;
they have poor access to basic education, health and other services; and
they are adversely affected by rises in sea level and other extreme climate
events:
- salt water intrusion into groundwater lenses (water security),
- destruction of taro patches and other food supply (food security), and
- population displacement and resettlement.
(2) Populations living at the coastlines are vulnerable because of:
erosion of coastlines, and
high tides.
(3) Most communities in the Federated States of Micronesia are at risk from natural
disasters and climate change.
3. National programmes and projects
3.1 Programmes to reduce/mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
Information is not available.
3.2 Climate change related studies and projects, including their roles in
the Second National Communications.
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Climate-proofing project
Environmental analysis project (climate change risk profile)
Renewable energy projects
Second National Communication (underway)
3.3 Further data and research needs on potential health impacts of climate
change
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Data and research strongly linking climate change and variability to diseases –
communicable and noncommunicable – for improved and better strategies for
intervention and emergency preparedness
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3.4 Current and expected programmes and activities for adaptation to
current and projected climate-related health burdens
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Climate-proofing the national Infrastructure Development Plan (IDP)
Project Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process
Implementation of infrastructure projects
Public awareness on climate-related health issues
Community involvement in planning
Disaster and/or emergency preparedness
4. Institutional organization
Key organizations and/or institutions dealing with climate change are:
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environment offices at national and state levels (lead agencies); and
other sectors: health, agriculture, foreign affairs, transportation, finance,
planning.
5. Issues and challenges
Critical issues and challenges that the country faces in relation to mitigation and
adaptation to climate change to reduce health impacts are:
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adapting to consequences of climate change;
protecting people in the outer islands; and
educating communities on climate change and its consequences.
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