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Transcript
Climate Services
Dr. Chet Koblinsky
Director, NOAA Climate Program Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society
January 19, 2008
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Outline
•
Society’s Demand for Climate Services
•
Background of Climate Services
•
Legislative Response to Emerging Demand
•
NOAA’s Current Capabilities
•
NOAA’s Strategy
•
Enterprise Model Example: NIDIS
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Record Breaking Season
2007
Utah largest fire in
history
Driest rainy season in Southern
California
Phoenix 32 days above
110°
Mountain Pine
Bark Beetles
Record high and max low temps in
Missoula. MT
Arctic Sea Ice Cover Shatters all Previous Record Lows
3
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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The Social and Economic Context for Change…
…is changing
Increased Vulnerability
• 9 billion people by 2050 (50%
increase)
• Increasing urbanization into
mega-cities – 4 billion new city
dwellers, aging populations,
overdevelopment in coastal
regions, and regions with
limited water supply
• Income inequality growing
within nations and between
nations
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had
a Profound Impact
“There is now higher
confidence in projected
patterns of warming and
other regional-scale
features, including changes
in wind patterns,
precipitation and some
aspects of extremes and of
ice.”
WG1 SPM
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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August 2007
“In general, resource
managers lack specific
guidance for incorporating
climate change into their
management actions and
planning efforts.
Without such guidance, their
ability to address climate
change and effectively manage
resources is constrained.”
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NOAA Data and Information for a Changing Climate:
A Conference for Public and Private Sector Users*
Conference Goal: Determining user needs for climate data and
information in a changing climate.
Sectors Addressed:
 Energy
 Insurance
 Transportation
Key Outcome Questions:
 What are the concerns of these industries?
 What are their data and information needs
today and for the future?
7
*Conference held November 5-6, 2007,
The Grove Park Inn, Asheville, NC
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Shared Concerns and Information Needs:
Energy, Insurance, and Transportation Sectors
Shared concerns:
Vulnerability of societal infrastructure to…
 Sea-level rise and coastal inundation
 Extreme events: Changes in frequency, intensity, and probability
 Prolonged extreme conditions (e.g., drought)
Shared information needs:
Continued and sustained dialogue to ensure…
 More accurate information at regional/local scales
 Higher spatial and temporal data resolutions
 Better understanding of changing hazards, consequences,
assets, and resilience
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Legislative Response
to Emerging Demand
• S. 2355 - Climate Change Adaptation Act
– a national strategic plan for climate change adaptation
– regional assessments of the vulnerability of
coastal and ocean areas and resources to
hazards associated with climate change,
climate variability, and ocean acidification.
• S. 2307 - Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007
– establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA.
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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NOAA’s Climate Mission
Understand Climate Variability and Change to
Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond
OUTCOMES
•
A predictive understanding of the global climate
system on time scales of weeks to decades with
quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed
and reasoned decisions
•
Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate
public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate
products into their plans and decisions
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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A Strategy for the Development of
Climate Services
Advance predictive
understanding and
skill about the future
state of the climate
Understand the past
and current state of
the climate
Develop climate
information services
Assess evolving
information needs
and the context
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Understand the Past and Current
State of the Climate
• Climate System Observations
–
–
–
–
Ocean
Atmosphere
Arctic
Carbon
• Data Management and
Information
– NOAA’s Comprehensive Large
Array-data Stewardship System
– State of the Climate Report
– Climatological Statistics and
– Summaries
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Advance Predictive Understanding and Skill
about the Future State of Climate
• Understanding Climate Processes -
– NOAA’s Research Laboratories,
– Centers, and Cooperative
– Institutes
– Competitive Grants
• Earth System Modeling,
Predictions, and Projections – GFDL and NCEP coupled
climate models
– Earth system model
development
• Analysis and Attribution -
GFDL MODEL
– Reanalysis
– Emerging focus on
Integrated Earth System Analysis
and attribution
Capturing the global
distribution of the
short-lived Aerosols
spreading out from
the source regions
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Assessing Evolving User
Needs and Context
• Assessing Climate, Impacts and
Adaptation – Global, national, regional,
sectoral assessments of
vulnerability, impacts and
adaptation
• Climate Services Development
and Delivery – National Integrated Drought
– Information System (NIDIS)
– Emerging foci on Coasts,
Arctic, Fisheries,…
– Regional
– International
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Need for Integrated Climate Services
“Whatever approach is chosen, it must be able to
create a national framework that will encourage an
intimate connection between research, operations,
and the support of decision making. Specific
responsibility and resources must be assigned to the
integration of multiple-agency programs.”
The Science of Regional and Global Change: Putting Knowledge to
Work NRC, 2001
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National Integrated Drought
Information System
A result of requests by the Western Governors
Association and the NIDIS act of 2006
• NIDIS is an example of a national effort led by NOAA to
coordinate across federal agencies the monitoring, data, and
models needed to provide:
– Ongoing information on current and future drought
conditions across the nation
And
– Region specific products for drought management, planning
and adaptation, and education and outreach tools
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Lessons from NIDIS
- Enterprise solution
- Regional implementation of a drought early warning system – The plan
for NIDIS Pilots
1
Thank you!
Comments or Questions?
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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BACKUP
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Specific Concerns
and Information Needs:
ENERGY SECTOR
Concerns:




Bridging the gap between science and industry (translators)
Industry does not know the scope of data availability
Delineation of public versus proprietary information resources
Immature link to water, food/agriculture, and health interests
Information needs:
 Climate data to support long-term planning (40-60 years)
 Identification of adaptation measures necessary in a changing
climate
 Balance of data versus derived products (data interpretation)
 Characterization of uncertainty in data quality
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Specific Concerns
and Information Needs:
INSURANCE SECTOR
Concerns:
 Understanding/building resilience
 Predicting/assessing risk (e.g., changing demographics in
addition to physical hazards)
 Limited public awareness
Information needs:
 Measurement standardization (e.g., wind speed, gusts,
instrument exposure)
 Data capture reliability under extreme conditions
 Data provenance: tagging observed versus inferred data
 Integration of data from diverse sources
 Characterization of uncertainty in data quality
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Specific Concerns
and Information Needs:
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
Concerns:
 Incorporation of climate into scenario planning
 Viability of emerging transport corridors (e.g., Northwest
passage)
 Dealing with mixed winter precipitation
 Local and regional downscaling of global/national information
Information needs:




Updating risk maps (e.g., FEMA flood maps)
Updating NOAA datasets (e.g., Intl Airport Climate Summary)
Probabilistic (versus deterministic) data
Integrate climate information with transportation-specific strategic
planning models
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Where do we go from here?
Extend and Expand the Dialogue: Sector Scoping Papers
Anticipating and Addressing Unprecedented Change:






Historical data necessary but not sufficient
Integration of physical, ecological, social and economic data
Scalability - from global to regional to local (and back) - desirable
Proactive, evolutionary approach — adaptation and mitigation
Tailored data solutions for risk analysis, operations and planning
Enhanced interagency dataset integration and consistency
Building Connections Based on Community Expertise




Existing corporate commitments
Science agency programs
Public-private partnerships
Corporate and community risk mangement (operations,
development, and planning)
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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NOAA’s Current and Emerging
Climate Products
Category of
Product
NOAA’s climate services provide
data and information
products for a variety of
users.
Climate Services are the timely
production and delivery of useful
climate data, information, and
knowledge to users, including
decision makers.
Product is a general term for tangible
results, technology, or information
that have potential value in one or
more uses.
Specific Examples
Users
Data and
Monitoring
Climate Normals,
Atlas of Extreme Events,
Observed Data Sets,
Observed Data Products
State of Climate Report
Decision Makers,
Business Sectors,
Resource Managers,
Federal Mission
Agencies,
Regulatory Commissions
Analysis and
Assessments
Drought Monitor,
Atmosphere Reanalyses,
IPCC, Ozone Assessments,
CCSP Synthesis/Assessment
Policy Makers, States,
Regional Decision
Makers,
Resource Managers,
General Public,
Business Sectors,
Seasonal Outlooks,
Local temperature outlooks,
Regional and sector-specific
outlook forums,
El Nino Dialogs
Decision Makers,
Business Sectors,
Resource Managers,
Federal Mission
Agencies,
Regulatory Commissions
Projections
Coupled Model Scenarios
via web portal or PCMDI
Scientists,
Federal Mission
Agencies
Tools and
Decision
Support
Web decision support
tools,
Sea Grant Extension,
Sector specific tools,
Training
Policy Makers, States,
Regional Decision
Makers,
Resource Managers,
General Public,
Business Sectors,
Predictions
Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society - 2008
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Climate Services
NRC Definition of Climate Services (2001): “the timely production and delivery of
useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers”
NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy
A comprehensive system that:
• Monitors, collects and integrates Information
on the key indicators of climate and develops
credible, usable, accessible and timely
assessments and predictions of climate,
• Assesses climate trends, conditions,
projections and impacts
• Works with user communities to develop and
transfer information into planning and
decision-making.
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