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Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information The Global Climate System Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Over the last 20 years, developments in climatology have provided an amazing array of explanations for the pattern of world climates. This textbook examines the Earth’s climate systems in light of this incredible growth in data availability, data retrieval systems, and satellite and computer applications. It considers regional climate anomalies, developments in teleconnections, unusual sequences of recent climate change, and human impacts on the climate system. The physical climate forms the main part of the book, but social and economic aspects of the global climate system are also considered. This textbook has been derived from the authors’ extensive experience of teaching climatology and atmospheric science. Each chapter contains an essay by a specialist in the field to enhance the understanding of selected topics. An extensive bibliography and lists of websites are included for further study. This textbook will be invaluable to advanced students of climatology and atmospheric science. H O W A R D A . B R I D G M A N is currently a Conjoint Professor at the University of Newcastle in Australia, having retired at the Associate Professor level in February 2005. He has held visiting scientist positions at Indiana University, USA, the University of East Anglia, UK, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA, the Atmospheric Environment Service in Canada, and the Illinois State Water Survey, USA. He has written, edited or contributed to eleven other books on subjects including air pollution, applied climatology and climates of the Southern Hemisphere. He has published many articles in the field’s leading journals. J O H N E . O L I V E R was educated in England and the United States, obtaining his Ph.D. at Columbia University, where he served on the faculty, before joining Indiana State University. Prior to his appointment as Emeritus Professor, he was Professor of Physical Geography and Director of the University Climate Laboratory at Indiana State. He also served as Department Chairperson and Associate Dean of Arts and Sciences. He has published twelve books and his work on applied climatology and historic climates has appeared in a wide range of journals. He was founding editor, with Antony Orme, of the journal Physical Geography, for which until recently he served as editor for climatology. In 1998 he was awarded the first Lifetime Achievement Award from the Climatology Group of the Association of American Geographers. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information The Global Climate System Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman School of Environmental and Life Sciences University of Newcastle, Australia John E. Oliver Department of Geography, Geology and Anthropology Indiana State University, USA With contributions from Michael Glantz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Randall Cerveny, Arizona State University, USA Robert Allan, Hadley Centre, UK Paul Mausel, Indiana State University, USA Dengsheng Lu, Indiana University, USA Nelson Dias, Universidade de Taubaté, Brazil Brian Giles, University of Birmingham, UK Gerd Wendler, University of Alaska, USA Gregory Zielinski, University of Maine, USA Sue Grimmond, Indiana University, USA and King’s College London, UK Stanley Changnon, University of Illinois, USA William Lau, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521826426 # H. Bridgman and J. Oliver 2006 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2006 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library ISBN-13 978-0-521-82642-6 hardback ISBN-10 0-521-82642-X hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information Contents List of contributors Preface List of abbreviations page viii xi xiv 1 Introduction 1.1 The climate system 1.2 Patterns, processes, and teleconnections 1.3 ESSAY: Problem climates or problem societies? (Glantz) 1.4 Examples of general climate websites 1.5 References 1 1 8 10 23 24 2 Oscillations and teleconnections 2.1 History and definitions 2.2 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 2.3 The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 2.4 The Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) 2.5 The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) 2.6 The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) 2.7 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) 2.8 ESSAY: ENSO and related teleconnections (Allan) 2.9 Examples of oscillations and teleconnections websites 2.10 References 25 25 29 3 Tropical climates 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The climate controls 3.3 ESSAY: The Quasi-biennial Oscillation and tropical climate variations (Cerveny) 3.4 Human activities and problem climates in the tropics 3.5 ESSAY: Remote sensing of Amazonia deforestation and vegetation regrowth: inputs to climate change research (Mausel, Lu and Dias) 3.6 Chapter summary 59 59 59 30 31 33 34 36 38 54 54 67 74 79 90 v © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information vi Contents 3.7 Examples of tropical climates websites 3.8 References © Cambridge University Press 91 91 4 Middle-latitude climates 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data availability 4.3 ESSAY: Reanalysis (Giles) 4.4 Using reanalysis 4.5 The Northern Hemisphere 4.6 Mid-latitude circulation and teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere 4.7 Chapter summary 4.8 Examples of mid-latitude websites 4.9 References 96 96 96 97 104 106 5 Climate of the polar realms 5.1 Introduction (Wendler) 5.2 ESSAY: Antarctic climate (Wendler) 5.3 Upper air circulation and wind 5.4 Surface pressure variations 5.5 Cyclogenesis and cyclonicity 5.6 Antarctic climate and ENSO 5.7 Polar night jet and stratospheric ozone depletion 5.8 ESSAY: Arctic Climate (Wendler) 5.9 Arctic general circulation 5.10 Surface pressure and wind 5.11 Extra-tropical cyclones 5.12 Polar night jet and stratospheric ozone depeletion 5.13 Concerns about future warming 5.14 Chapter summary 5.15 Examples of polar websites 5.16 References 131 131 132 142 143 146 148 149 151 161 161 163 165 166 166 167 168 6 Post-glacial climatic change and variability 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Determining past climate through the use of proxies 6.3 ESSAY: Post-glacial climates in the Northern Hemisphere (Zielinski) 6.4 Southern Hemisphere climate reconstructions 6.5 Chapter summary 6.6 Examples of paleoclimate websites 6.7 References 171 171 172 114 125 126 126 175 194 201 202 202 www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information Contents 7 Urban impacts on climate 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Highlights in the history of urban climate research 7.3 ESSAY: Variability of urban climates (Grimmond) 7.4 Wind, cloud cover, and pressure 7.5 Urban canyons 7.6 Moisture and precipitation 7.7 Effects of air pollution 7.8 Remote sensing and the UHI 7.9 Mitigation of the UHI 7.10 Chapter summary 7.11 Examples of urban websites 7.12 References 205 205 207 210 223 227 230 232 234 238 239 239 240 8 Human response to climate change 8.1 Introduction 8.2 The Viking settlements in Greenland, AD 800–1450 8.3 Climate change and adaptation in Europe during the Little Ice Age 8.4 ESSAY: Economic impacts of climate conditions in the United States (Changnon) 8.5 Conclusions 8.6 Examples of climate and history websites 8.7 References 244 244 245 250 260 275 277 277 9 ESSAY: Model interpretation of climate signals: an application to Asian monsoon climate (Lau) 9.1 Introduction 9.2 A climate model primer 9.3 Modeling the Asian monsoon climate 9.4 Future challenges 9.5 Acknowledgement 9.6 Examples of climate modeling websites 9.7 References 281 281 282 292 303 305 305 305 10 Conclusions and the future of climate research 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Understanding the global climate system 10.3 The importance of communication 10.4 References 309 309 311 318 320 Other books on climatology and the climate system Index The color plates are situated between pages 170 and 171 321 325 © Cambridge University Press vii www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information Contrib tors u Michael Glantz is a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and is an expert on climate change impacts on society and lifestyle. Robert Allan is a senior scientist at the Hadley Centre, Met Office, United Kingdom, and is an expert on E1 Niño–Southern Oscillation, its teleconnections and its climate impacts. Randall Cerveny is a Professor in Geography at Arizona State University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, and is an expert on tropical circulations and climates of South America. Paul Mausel is a Professor at Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana, USA, and is an expert on remote sensing, and interpretations of biospheric and atmospheric changes from satellite data. Dengsheng Lu is a research scientist in the Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change at Indiana University and is an expert in remote sensing. Nelson Dias is a research associate at the Universidade de Taubaté in Brazil, and researches changes to the Amazon rainforest using remote sensing techniques. Brian Giles is a retired Professor from the School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Sciences at the University of Birmingham, UK, and is an expert on synoptic meteorology and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. He currently lives in Takapuna, New Zealand. Gerd Wendler is a Professor and Director of the Arctic Research Institute at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA, and is an expert on synoptic climatology of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Gregory Zielinski is a scientist at the Institute for Quaternary and Climate Studies at the University of Maine, Orono, Maine, USA, and is an expert on Holocene paleoclimates and proxy interpretations of climate change. viii © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information ist ofc L ontrib tors u ix Sue Grimmond is a Professor in the Environmental Monitoring and Modelling Group, Department of Geography, King’s College London, UK, and is an expert on urban climate and urban impacts on energy and water balances. Stanley Changnon is retired as Director of the Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, USA, and is currently Emeritus Professor of Geography at the University of Illinois. His expertise is in water and climate change, and the impacts of weather hazards on economics and society. William Lau is Head of the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, and is an expert on climate modeling. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information Preface As graduate students in the 1960s and 1970s, the authors became attracted to the exciting world of the atmosphere and climatology through both lectures and textbooks. The approach to climatology at that time is best described as ‘‘global descriptive,’’ where we were introduced to climate patterns and regimes across the Earth, and what then were known as the explanations behind them. One of the best books for studying advanced climatology was The Earth’s Problem Climates (University of Wisconsin Press, 1966), by Glenn Trewartha, a wellknown and respected climatologist from the University of Wisconsin. In this book we explored, both geographically and systematically, the climate patterns and anomalies across the continents. We were introduced to the nature of the Atacama Desert, the climatic anomalies of northeast Brazil, the temperature extremes of central Siberia, and the monsoon variations in India and China, among other aspects. Trewartha’s book was reprinted in 1981, but sadly the new version did not properly include new research and findings on global climate patterns. For example, despite recognition by the mid 1970s of its essential importance to global climatic variability, there was no discussion of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation! During the decades of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, there has been an explosion in climatic research and a new breadth and depth of understanding about climatology and the atmosphere. There have also been a number of excellent books published in the area of climatology. Almost all of these can be grouped into one of two categories: (a) introductory to intermediate textbooks, to support teaching, which basically assume little or no background knowledge in climate or atmospheric studies; and (b) detailed books on either a climatic topic or a geographical area, based on extensive summaries of research publications. Examples of the latter include Elsevier’s World Survey of Climatology series; El Ni~ no: Historical and Palaeoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (editors Diaz and Markgraf ); Antarctic Meteorology and Climatology (King and Turner); El Ni~ no Southern Oscillation and Climate Variability (Allen, Lindesay, and Parker); and Climates of the Southern Continents (editors Hobbs, Lindesay, and Bridgman). There is currently no book that provides a synthesis and overview of this information, filling the gap left by The Earth’s Problem Climates. It is our purpose in The Global Climate System to fill this gap, providing a book that can be used as background to climate research, as well as a text for xi © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information xii Preface advanced climatology studies at senior undergraduate and graduate levels. We have, combined, over 50 years teaching experience in climate, atmospheric sciences and weather, and written or co-authored 12 books on climate, climatology, and the atmosphere. Global climates mostly follow a semi-predictable pattern based upon the receipts of energy and moisture distribution, with modifications based upon the non-homogeneity of the Earth’s surface. But within these arrangements of climate are areas that are atypical of the expected pattern. In the preface to the second edition of The Earth’s Problem Climates, Glenn Trewartha wrote, ‘‘In the nearly two decades that have elapsed since the initial publication of this book, new information as well as new climatic data have become available concerning some of the earth’s unusual climates.’’ As noted, in the more than two decades since Trewartha wrote these words there has been an incredible growth in information, information technology, data availability, and rapid data retrieval systems. Satellite and computer applications have led to a modern climatology whose methods were not available when Trewartha penned his first edition. Given such developments, it is appropriate that a timely reexamination of the Earth’s climate system should be undertaken. Some examples include: 1. Regional climates that cannot be well explained in the context of their surrounding climates. Such anomalies are dealt with by considering continental areas within the division of tropical, middle-latitude and polar climates. 2. The recent developments in teleconnections open an array of climatic observations that are not readily explained. Thus, new understandings of climate interactions, such as those arising for example from possible impacts of ENSO events, are explored. 3. Intense inquiry into processes and nature of climate change has opened new vistas for its study. However, within the sequence of change there are times and events that do not appear to follow an expected pattern. 4. Both the human inputs into climate and the impacts of climate upon humans provide an extensive area of study. In the urban environment, massive interruptions of the natural systems provide an arena in which many seemingly anomalous conditions occur. At the same time, problem climates also influence the social and economic well-being of many people. We cannot cover the full details of the entire climate system in this book. The range of knowledge about the climate system is increasing too rapidly. Instead, we explore a range of aspects and topics, to show current understanding, but also to encourage interest and further research, from both the scientist and the student. To help achieve this aim, we have enlisted the input of respected scholars who contribute essays dealing with their areas of expertise. These essays are merged into each chapter in the hope that the text is a continuum of information. Each author was given some very general instructions about the aim of the book, the expected size of the essay, and the number of supporting © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information Preface xiii figures and tables. Further specifics were intentionally left out, to allow the authors freedom to develop their essays in their own style. Initially we had hoped to have essayists from a range of different geographical locations around the world. The final list, nine from the USA, two from the UK, and one from Brazil, does not quite meet that aim, but we are very pleased with the outcome. The essays are shaded, to distinguish them from the material written by us. We would like to thank the University of Newcastle and Indiana State University for their support, especially for study leave trips for both authors. We thank our support cartographers, Olivier Rey-Lescure at Newcastle and Lu Tao at Indiana State. Last, but not least, we thank our wives, who had a wonderful time socializing in the second half of 2004, allowing us to work uninterrupted on the manuscript. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information Abbreviations AAO ABRACOS ACSYS ACW AGB AGCM ALPEX AM AMIP AMO AO AUHI AVHRR AWS BUFR CACGP CCN CCSP CET CliC CLIVAR CMAP CMIP COADS CPC CPT CPV CRU DOE ECA Antarctic Oscillation Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study Arctic Climate System Study Antarctic Circumpolar Wave Above Ground Biomass Atmospheric General Circulation Model Alpine Experiment of 1982 Asian Monsoon Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (NCEP/DOE) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Atmospheric Urban Heat Island Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (satellite) Automatic Weather Station Binary Universal Format Representation of the WMO Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution Cloud Condensation Nuclei Climate Change Science Program Central England Temperature Series Climate and Cryosphere Climate Variability and Predictability CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set Climate Prediction Center Circumpolar Trough Circumpolar Vortex Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia Department of Energy European Climate Assessment xiv © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information List of abbreviations ECMWF ENSO EOF FGGE GAIM GARP GATE GCM GCTE GDP GEOS GEWEX GIS GISP2 GNP GRIB GRIP GURME HadCRUT HadSST HRC H/W IAMAS ICSU IGAC IGBP IGY IHDP ILEAPS INPE IPCC IPCC DDC IPO © Cambridge University Press xv European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts El Niño–Southern Oscillation Empirical Orthogonal Function First GARP Global Experiment Global Analysis, Integration, and Modelling Program Global Atmospheric Research Program GARP Global Atlantic Experiment General Circulation Model Global Climate Model Global Chemistry Tropospheric Experiment Gross Domestic Product Goddard Earth Observing System Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Geographic Information System(s) Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Gross National Product Grided Binary representation (WMO) Greenland Ice Core Project Global Urban Research Meteorology and Environmental Project Climatic Research Unit’s land surface air temperatures Hadley Centre monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperatures Highly Reflective Clouds Height to Width ratio International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science International Council for Science International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Program International Geosphere/Biosphere Program International Geophysical Year International Hydrological Development Program Integrated Land Ecosystem–Atmospheric Processes Study Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (National Institute for Space Research, the Brazilian government) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information xvi List of abbreviations IRD ISL ITC or ITCZ IUGG JMA JRA-25 LBA LF ENSO LFV LIA LULC MAP MC METROMEX MIP MJO MMIP MSLP MTM-SVD MWP NAO NASA/DAO NCAR NCEP/DOE AMIP-II NCEP/NCAR NCEP/NCAR-40 NEE NGDC NH NMC NOAA NPO NWS OLR PAGES PDO PDV © Cambridge University Press Ice-Rafted Debris Inertial Sub-Layer (urban) Intertropical Convergence Zone International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Japanese Meteorological Agency Japanese Re-Analysis 25 years Large-scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia Low-Frequency ENSO, 2.5 to 7 years Local Fractional Variance Little Ice Age Land Use/Land Cover Merged Analysis of Precipitation Maritime Continent METROpolitan Meteorological EXperiment Model Intercomparison Projects Madden–Julian Oscillation Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project Mean Sea Level Pressure Multi-Taper Method Singular Value Decomposition Medieval Warm Period North Atlantic Oscillation National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Data Assimilation Office of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis or Reanalysis 2 National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis project 1957–1996 Net Ecosystem Exchange (of CO2) National Geophysical Data Center Northern Hemisphere National Meteorological Center, USA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, USA North Pacific Oscillation National Weather Service, USA Outgoing Longwave Radiation Past Global Changes Pacific Decadal Oscillation Pacific Decadal Variation www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information List of abbreviations PILPS PMIP PNA PNJ PSCs QB ENSO QBO RSL SAM SAO SAR SCORE SEAM SEB SH SMIP SO SOI SOLAS SPARC SPCZ SS1 SS2 SS3 SST STHP SUHI SVF THC TM TOGA TOMS TOVS/SSU TPI TRMM TRUCE UBL UCI UCL © Cambridge University Press xvii Project of Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Pacific North American Oscillation Polar Night Jet Polar Stratospheric Clouds Quasi-Biennial ENSO, 2 to 2.5 years Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Roughness Sub-Layer (urban) South Asian Monsoon Semi-Annual Oscillation Synthetic Aperture Radar Scientific Committee on Ocean Research South East Asian Monsoon Surface Energy Balance Southern Hemisphere Seasonal Model Intercomparison Project Southern Oscillation Southern Oscillation Index Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate South Pacific Convergence Zone Initial secondary succession Secondary succession forest Succession to mature forest Sea Surface Temperature Subtropical High Pressure Surface Urban Heat Island Sky View Factor (urban) Global Thermohaline Circulation Thematic Mapper, Landsat satellite sensor, resolution 30 m Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder/Stratospheric Sounding Unit Trans-Polar Index (Southern Hemisphere) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Tropical Urban Climate Experiment Urban Boundary Layer Urban Cool Island Urban Canopy Layer www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 052182642X - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman and John E. Oliver Frontmatter More information xviii List of abbreviations UHI UHIC UME UNCCD UNCED UNEP VOC WCRP WETAMC WMO Urban Heat Island Urban Heat Island Circulation Urban Moisture Excess United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Conference on Environment and Development United Nations Environment Programme Volatile Organic Compounds World Climate Research Programme Wet season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (Amazon Basin) World Meteorological Organization See also Table 10.1. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org