Download National interests

Challenges of climate change and
responses in Asia and the Pacific:
implications for civil society
World Civic Forum
5-8 May 2009, Seoul
Sangmin Nam, PhD
Environmental Affairs Officer
Environment and Development Division
UNESCAP
GHG Emissions and Rising
Temperature
550ppm CO2 eq
450ppm CO2 eq
Source: IPCC
Trends of Climate Change in
Asia and the Pacific
 Temperature increase (A-P above the trend)
• Shrinking glaciers (e.g. Himalayan glacier)
• Sea level rise (many small islands in A-P)
 Changes in rainfall patterns
 change in river flow pattern
 more frequent and severe floods, droughts
 changes in coastal circulation patters
 Increase in extreme weather (A-P more
vulnerable)
Climate change in Asia-Pacific
context
Geographic factors
•Many countries in lower latitudes
•Large coastal areas of low elevation
•Many small islands states
Socio-economic factors
•Dependence on climate sensitive activities (agriculture,
fishery, etc)
•Many poor  Lack of resources for prevention, adaptation
and mitigation measures
•Population growth  more people living in higher risk areas
such as coastal areas
Global Environmental Governance:
Actors and Factors
Actors
Factors
State Actors
Non-state Actors
Interplay of interests
 International
organizations
 Civil Society
 Epistemic
Communities
Influence of Knowledge
Factor 1: Influence of Knowledge
Knowledge in Multilateral Environmental Governance
 Asymmetrical information acts as an obstacle to building and
implementing governance
 Thus, mutually or widely shared understanding of a problem
is the first requirement of environmental governance.
 Required knowledge for multilateral governance: causality of
the problem as well as the consequences of policies
 The specific roles of knowledge include identifying the nature
of a problem; shaping states’ perception on an environmental
problem; and creating bases for the choice of substantive
approaches and rules of governance
Factor 2: Interplay of Interests
National interests in multilateral environmental governance
 National interests: the outcome of calculations of expected
environmental vulnerability and abatement costs
 A reflection of interactions among various domestic factors
 National interests are always heterogeneous. Thus, the
important fact is the intensity of heterogeneity and the potential
of a governance mechanism to alter or create incentives for
cooperation
State Actors: the agent of national interests
 State actors cannot be defined as an entity of a monolithic
interest, but an entity with diverse interests.
Actor: Civil Society
Two existential bases of CSO
•As external advocates for encouraging state actors to effectively
respond to environmental challenges by creating required
governance mechanisms
•As executors for CSO-initiated governance mechanisms or
activities of formal governance mechanisms
Roles of CSO
Diffuse new information and knowledge; create new agendas of
governance; form an encouraging political atmosphere towards
new governance; and execute their own governance sphere.
Progress in GEG on Climate
Change
Bali Action Plan: Key
Directions
Shared Vision for Long-term
Global Goal
• Achieving the ultimate
objective of the Convention
• Ambitious (meeting ultimate
objective of the UNFCCC)
• Deep cut
• Based on science
• NAMA
• Achievable and realistic
• MRV
• Economic development
• Technology and Financing
• Comprehensive
• Markets and costeffectiveness
• Adaptation
(5th Session of the AWG-LCA)
Goals of Post-2012 Action
Developed Countries:
Reducing 20-40% of
1990 level by 2020
Developing Countries: NAMA/
Substantial Deviation from Baseline
At least 50% below 1990 level by 2050
Stabilizing GHG at the level of 450 ppm CO2 eq. in 2050
Limiting global warming to 2ºC increase
The Approach of the Kyoto
Target
Global temperature: ?
GHG concentration in 2050: ?
Global emissions by 2050: ?
Targets for Annex I:
5% Reduction by
2012
No quantified target for Non-Annex I
Implication for Developing
Countries: NAMA
Developed Countries: NAMC + Deep Cut
Developing Countries: (1) NAMA (2) in the context of SD (3)
in a MRV manner
Encouraging Mitigation Action of Developing Countries
Technology, Financing and Capacity Building
for Developing Countries
Formal TT and Financing
Mechanism under UNFCCC
Market-based
Mechanism
Globally required additional investment and financial
flows in 2030: 0.3 to 0.5% of GDP and 1.1 - 1.7% of
global investment (UNFCCC).
Approaches to NAMA





Sustainable Development Policies and Measures
Low-carbon development plans and strategies
Sector-based mitigation actions and standards
Technology deployment Programme
Cap-and-trade schemes
 Registry of NAMAs
 MRV
 Link NAMAs with pledges or sources of support
Moving towards Committed
Actions
Key Approaches to Implementing
Mitigation Actions
 Co-benefits approach to attain multiple outcomes
 Holistic approach to designing socioeconomic
policies
 Cooperative approach to developing and
implementing policies
 Inclusive development approach to simultaneously
achieving key social development goals including
MDGs
Enabling Climate Action in
Developing Countries
 TT, Financing and CB under formal mechanism
 Cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specific
actions
 Create crediting mechanisms for NAMA through a
registry of NAMAs so as to improve commercial
viability of investments in mitigation actions in
developing countries.
Enabling Sector-specific
Actions
Options
(1) Sector-wide transnational approaches, e.g.
transnational industry-led approaches
(2) Country-specific quantitative sectoral approaches,
possibly combined with no-lose targets
(3) Top-down sectoral crediting as an incentive mechanism,
e.g. a sectoral Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
(4) Policy or technology-oriented sectoral approaches
Target sectors
(1) Domestically-oriented sectors: power generation,
transport, residential building, etc
(2) Internationally-oriented/ operating sectors:
manufacturing industry
Sector
End Use/ Activity
Energy
Transportation
Electricity
& Heat
Other fuel
Combustion
Industry
Fugitive
Emissions
Industrial
Processes
13.5%
24.6%
9.0%
10.4%
3.9%
9.9%
Air and Transport
3.9%
3.4%
18.2%
Agriculture
13.55%
3.6%
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
77%
Residential & Commercial
Buildings
9.9%
Unallocated fuel
Combustion
3.5%
Iron & Steel
3.2%
Other metals
4.4%
Chemicals
4.8%
Cement
3.8%
Other Industry
Land Use
Change
Waste
Road
GHG
Methane
(CH4)
14%
Nitrous Oxide
(N2O)
8%
8.3%
Oil/Gas Extraction, Refining
& Processing
6.3%
Forest Change
18.2%
Agricultural Use
13.4%
HFCs, PFCs
SFs
1%
Livestock & Manure 5.1%
Source: WRI
Key Sectors and Actors
Number of participating countries covering 80-90% of
non-Annex I GHG emissions in particular sectors
Asian Countries on the Top Ten
For All Sectors: China, India, and South Korea
For Selected Sectors: Electricity - Indonesia, Thailand; Chemical
and Petrochemical - Indonesia; Cement - the two countries and
Pakistan
(Source: Center for Clean Air Policy)
Enabling Sector-specific Actions Sectoral Crediting Mechanism (SCM)
 Policy-based crediting, where credits would be
generated by adopting and implementing GHG friendly
policies in particular sectors;
 Rate-based (indexed) crediting, where GHG
emissions below a certain intensity level (e.g. per
product output or per value of output) would generate
emission credits; and
 Fixed sectoral emission limits, where emissions
“credits” could be generated if a sector or company
emits at a lower level than an agreed, fixed, limit.
Source: OECD/IEA
Financing Climate Action
New Crediting
Mechanism?
New Funding Mechanism?
Enhancing the roles: a fundamental
requirement for financing
Financing Mitigation Actions:
proposals
Contributions based on national capacity and responsibility


An assessed contribution from developed country based on GDP
An assessed contributions from all Parties based on GHG emissions and
respective capacities.
Levies on commercial and individual activities

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A uniform Global levy on CO2 emissions
International aviation and maritime transport
Air travel
International monetary transactions
Engaging market

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Auctioning of assigned amounts or emission allowances
A share of proceeds from CDM, JI and ET
Continuing Roles of Civil
Society in Climate Actions
 Framing climate change into political agenda
 Facilitating actions of sub-state actors and the private
sectors
 Interpreting scientific information into common knowledge
and practical action
 Building hubs of vertical and horizontal interactions
 Acting as an agent for citizens’ voluntary action such as
carbon offsetting
 Linking climate agenda into broader sustainable
development/ green growth agenda
Attaining the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC and
sustainability of “humanitarian planet”
Thank you very much
for your attention
Sangmin Nam ([email protected])