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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Water Corporation Technical Seminars 10 July 2006 Brian Ryan CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research www.csiro.au Acknowledgements IOCI Colleagues Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO Land and Water, CSIRO Mathematics and Information Sciences, Brian Sadler and Ed Hauck And specifically Roger Jones (CMAR) for work on impact of climate change on water resources in Australia Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources •How has climate change? •Is the evidence for anthropogenic climate change? (Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols) •What can we say about the future climate? •What is the likely impact of climate change on water resources? •What are the threats to the water sector of climate change? IPCC Third Assessment Report ‘An increasing body of observations give a collective picture of a warming world and other changes to the climate system’ How have surface temperatures changed? How have sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean Basin changed? How has Australian rainfall changed? http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/index.shtml 1946 1948 1945 1972 1890-99 Year 1940-45 199 0 198 0 197 0 196 0 195 0 194 0 193 0 192 0 1967 191 0 190 0 110 1893 100 1891 90 80 70 1894 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 189 0 Number of stations Abrupt shifts in Australian annual rainfall Total Positive 1967-69 How has the rainfall of South-western Western Australia changed? May-July SW WA Rainfall Time series of SWWA rainfall (mm). Solid trace depicts early winter (May to July) totals and dotted trace late winter (August to October) totals. Means for the periods 1900 to 1974 and 1975 to 2004 are represented by horizontal lines. How has the frequency of “wet” synoptic patterns (& June-July rainfall) changed? Decrease in frequency of “wet” types accounts for ~50% of rainfall decrease Decrease in rainfall associated with “troughs to west” types accounts for ~30% Summary of how the Regional Climate of SWWA has changed. Temperatures have increased by about 0.8C since 1910 with most of increase since 1950 Daily minimums have increased more than daily maximums Sea surface temperatures in the averaged over the Indian Ocean basin have increased by 0.6C Since 1970 the number of storms have decreased and they bring less rain Annual rainfall has decreased by 10% since 1970s May-July rainfall has decreased by 15% since 1970s Reduced rainfall has resulted in 50% less runoff Key Message: Water managers can not assume that the climate baselines of the 20th century will be valid in the 21st century Is it possible to model the observed temperature and rainfall changes? What can we say about the attribution of the drying in SWWA The decline in the number of storms is linked with largescale global circulation changes (in about 1970); It is feasible that the drying trend could have been the result of unforced climate variability; However, the decline in rainfall is also consistent with the modelled effect of anthropogenic forcing; Changes in land cover may also have contributed to the rainfall decline. What can we say about the future? Emission scenarios Global Temperature Rise Global temperatures and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC emission scenarios Projected warming of 1.45.8oC between 1990 and 2100 Projected warming of 0.541.24oC between 1990 and 2030 Projected warming of 1.173.77oC between 1990 and 2070 At least half of uncertainly relates to uncertainties in emissions, the rest to uncertainties in climate science Changes will persist for centuries SWWA: Range of projections for changes of temperature from nine international models May to October SRES 550 ppm 450 ppm 2030 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Temperature Change (oC) Temperature Change (oC) Temperature Change (oC) 2070 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 o Temperature Change ( C) November to April 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Temperature Change (oC) Temperature Change (oC) SWWA: Range of projections for changes of rainfall from nine international models SWWA Precipitation changes with 9 GCMs May to October SRES 550 ppm 450 ppm 2030 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Rainfall Change (%) Rainfall Change (%) Rainfall Change (%) 2070 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Rainfall Change (%) November to April Rainfall Change (%) Rainfall Change (%) Some Weather Types Type 3 L 1012 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 1016 H H 1016 1012 1004 1000 1008 Type 5 L .2 .4 .6 .8 1012 1 1016 1020 H 1016 1012 SWWA winter weather state probabilities from stochastic downscaling of Mk3 Winter Seasonal Totals (% of median for 30 SWWA rainfall station) Scenario 2030-2064 A2 80-90% B2 84-91% A1B 87-91% B1 97-99% S(20) 96-99% Baseline 1975-2004 (A2 dots, B2 small dash, B1 medium dash, A1B long dash and ‘committed’ dot-dash). Key Message The climate change simulations show that even with the lowest conceivable greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the south-west of Western Australia is projected to be drier and warmer later in the century, with an increasing probability of dry weather patterns and a decreased probability of wet weather patterns P and Ep changes for south-western Australia Change per degree warming (%) South-west 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Change per degree global warming Jul Aug Rainfall Sep Oct Nov Dec P and Ep change over Australia (per degree global warming) 10.0 North-east Change per degree warming (%) Change per degree warming (%) North-west 20.0 0.0 -10.0 NW -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Evaporation Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NE Rainfall 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Evaporation 20.0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall 10.0 SW 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Jul Aug Rainfall Sep Oct Nov Dec SE Change per degree warming (%) South-east 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Evaporation Tasmania Tas Change per degree warming (%) Change per degree warming (%) South-west Aug Rainfall 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Jul Aug Rainfall What is the likely impact of climate change on water resources? Hydrological model sensitivity Relate change in mean annual rainfall and potential evaporation to mean annual change in runoff (%) ∂Q = ∂P × A + ∂Ep × B The further A and B are from zero, the more sensitive that factor is Hydrological model sensitivity Model comparison 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 B Factor (Potential Evap) 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Simhyd -2.5 AWBM Zhang01 -3.0 A Factor (Rainfall) pp er M ur ra Ki y ew O a ve Br ns G oke o n C ulb am ur pa n s Lo pe dd M o ur ra Av n y M R oca ur iv ru er i La mb na i d ke g G ee eo La rge c Be hla na n W n im M ee m a er lle a- e Av o Bo n rd M er oo n G ie w yd M Ca Na ir a m C cqu stle oi on a re da rie ag m -B h in og e- a C n u W lgo ar a re g Pa o Lo D roo w ar er lin M g ur ra y U Change in mean annual flow (%) Simple model of mean flow changes – MDB (2030) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Vertical lines measure range from ten models with a global warming range from 0.541.24C. The central box is range of change at 0.85C (median) global warming Provisional results relating runoff response to climate change for the MDB 20 2100 WRE 10 2030 SRES 0 -10 -20 0 1 2 3 4 Mean Global Warming (°C) 5 -30 6 Mean Rainfall Change (%) 2100 SRES 25 to 50 25-50 0 to 25 0-25 -25 to 0 -25-0 -50 to -25 -50--25 <-50 -75--50 Mean Runoff Change (%) m en ny C ar oa st k R Ke ive r Fr n an t R kl i an ver O 'S ha d R nn ive r o W nR iv ar er re n D on R iv n er e Bl ac lly kw Ri ve Bu oo r ss d R el i to ver n Pr C es oa st to n C Riv ol lie er H ar Riv M er v ur ra ey R y i R iv ver er ( Av WA on ) R Sw iv M er oo an C re -H o as ill t R iv er s D ba Al Change in mean annual flow (%) Simple model of mean flow changes – SW WA (2030) 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 Vertical lines measure range from ten models with a global warming range from 0.54-1.24C. The central box is range of change at 0.85C (median) global warming Reduction in mean monthly inflow to Stirling Dam (Berti et al 2004) using the current (1982-2002)and future (2042-2062) GCM simulations 5250 70% 4500 60% 3750 50% 3000 40% 2250 30% 1500 20% 750 10% 0 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Percentage reduction in inflow (%) . Volume reduction in inflow (ML) . Flow change (ML) Flow change (%) Annual % decrease in stream flow is 31% IOCI “Living with our changing climate workshop” Key Impacts on Water Sector Reduced reliability of public supply Reduced reliability of private supply Reduced stream and estuary flow and water quality reducing ecological and social values Drying of ground water reliant systems Reduced water availability for fire fighting Challenged regulatory and management systems Seasonally variable flooding Stranded underperforming assets and infra structure IOCI “Living with our changing climate workshop” Water Sector Climate Science Priorities Better understanding of the dynamics of climate change and variability, including rainfall for south-west WA, to provide data for policy and planning; Developing of probabilities around climate scenario estimates; Distinguishing between climate change and climate variability; Differentiating effects on summer and winter rainfall; Breaking down spatial trends between north to south and east and west, and even within the south-west; and Understanding of meteorological shifts that have or will occur. Contact Name: Dr Brian Ryan Phone: 61 3 9333 6554 Email:[email protected] Web: www.marine.csiro.au Thank You Contact CSIRO Phone: 1300 363 400 +61 3 9545 2176 Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au www.csiro.au