Download modeling_climchange - SpatialSci

Modeling Climate Change in the Classroom
Rachel
1,2
Loehman ,
Lisa
2
Blank ,
and Jeff
2
Crews
1Numerical
Terradynamic Simulation Group, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT
2SpatialSci/GTEC, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT
Geotechnology in the Classroom Project
PROJECT GOALS
www.ntsg.umt.edu; www.SpatialSci.com
Investigation 1: Build a climate database
 Foster spatial thinking and spatial literacy
Students use the climate data archive from the Center
for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.
This archive:
Is composed of data from the Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and National
Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
PROJECT RESOURCES
Contains long-term monthly temperature and
precipitation data
 Advance geospatial skills in science
 Contribute to a national model for improving science teaching
and student learning using geotechnologies
 Earth Observing Systems Education Project
 GIS4MT
 235 participating schools
 ESRI site license
 Introductory GIS training
 Spatial Sci/GTEC Program
 Advanced GIS training
 Web portal
 Help desk, on-site visits
CLASSROOM LESSON PLAN: Climate change
and human health: How do changes in temperature and
precipitation influence disease outbreaks?
Students explore relationships between climate change and human
health using a long-term, national database of observed temperature
and precipitation as well as case information for hantavirus
pulmonary syndrome (HPS), a rodent-borne disease. The module
uses Montana data as an example, but climate and disease data
from other states can be easily substituted. The module can be
used to address spatial literacy, GIS implementation, data analysis
and modeling, and ecosystem and human systems change, fulfilling
a number of national science standards.
The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
and Global Change contends that there has
been no global warming for the past 70 years in
spite of the fact that in an analysis of 928
papers on global climate change published in
refereed scientific journals between 1993 and
2003 NONE OF THE PAPERS disagreed with
the statement that “…there is a scientific
consensus on the reality of anthropogenic
climate change.” (Oreskes, 2004). However,
the website provides an excellent climate
database that is easy to access, and use of the
site allows teachers to explore scientific debate
with their students.
Consists of 1221 stations within the conterminous US
Trends can be compared with those predicted by the EPA for
their state. Students can explore questions such as:
? Are there spatial differences in temperature and
precipitation across Montana?
? Why? What factors might affect microclimates?
? Will changes in precipitation and temperature affect the
distribution of plants and animals in Montana?
? How might predicted changes affect human populations
and systems?
? What other types of spatial data might provide
information on climate trends and ecosystem effects?
? Is climate change happening in Montana? What does
the future look like?
Investigation 2: Model Climate Trends
Using the data obtained in Investigation 1, students determine the temperature and
precipitation trends for their site(s) using simple linear regression techniques.
Students can then predict what temperature and precipitation will be in 2050 if the
trend continues. The data for 2000 and 2050 are placed into a larger database, which
is imported to ArcMap, and Inverse Distance Weighting is used to generate statewide
estimates of climate change. Difference maps are generated to explore spatial
changes.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/index.html
Investigation 3: Predict Climate Change
Effects on Human Health
Using the temperature and precipitation change maps
produced in Investigation 2, students overlay human case
information for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), a
climate-sensitive vector-borne disease. Deer mice, the
principal reservoir species for HPS, are sensitive to
changes in temperature and precipitation. Predicted
climate changes may increase the density and distribution
of deer mice, thereby increasing the probability of
encounters with infected rodents.
Average Temperature Change = 1.66°F  0.66°F
Average Precipitation Change = 3.97 in  0.72 in