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Mediterranean climate change scenarios: Impacts on the north Adriatic coast P.Lionello, University of Salento and CMCC, Lecce, Italy With thanks to all speakers of the workshop organized by CoRiLa “The climate in Venetia and the north Adriatic region: variability, trends and change” Venice 23-25 Oct 2008 and particularly to F.Antonioli, R. Böhm, F.Giorgi, M.Marcos, H.P.Plag, G.Spada, M.Tsimplis for the material used in this presentation … Venetia, Venice, North Adriatic Cultural, Environmental, Economical values at risk because of climate change ? Map of Venice in 16th century Venetia, Venice, North Adriatic Cultural, Environmental, Economical values at risk because of climate change ? Venetia, Venice, North Adriatic Cultural, Environmental, Economical values at risk because of climate change ? The scales of climate Global Mediterranean Italy Northern Adriatic Integration of expertise •Historical climatology and past climate •Northern Adriatic sea level and circulation: variability and trends •Land motions and relative sea level •Storminess, waves and storm surge •Regional climate change A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Questions that should be answered : * How would you rate the present level of knowledge? * Is further research needed? Which specific research? * Is the present climate condition well known? * Are you in condition of providing a scenario of likely future evolution? * What is the basis for such projection? * What is the level of uncertainty? * How is it possible to reduce it with further research? * Could you provide a likely range of values for the next decades? For the end of the 21st century? (including most likely and worse scenarios) A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Temperature and precipitation: present trends A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy The basis: HISTALP (Historical Instrumental Surface Timeseries from the greater ALPine Region) Auer I, Böhm R, Jurkovic A, Lipa W, Orlik A, Potzmann R, Schöner W, Ungersböck M, Matulla C, Briffa K, Jones PD, Efthymiadis D, Brunetti M, Nanni T, Maugeri M, Mercalli L, Mestre O, Moisselin J-M, Begert M, Müller-Westermeier G, Kveton V, Bochnicek O, Stastny P, Lapin M, Szalai S, Szentimrey T, Cegnar T, Dolinar M, Gajic-Capka M, Zaninovic K, Majstorovic Z, Nieplova E, 2007. HISTALP – Historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the greater Alpine region 1760-2003. International Journal of Climatology 27: 17-46 Slide by R.Böhm Slide by R.Böhm IS GAR REPRESENTATIVE FOR VENETIA? CORRELATION OF GAR-mean WITH WIDER EUROPE: WINTER TEMPERATURE SUMMER Efthymiadis D, Jones PD, Briffa K, Böhm R, Maugeri M, 2007. Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on climate variability in the Greater Alpine Region of Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: D12104, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008021 Also Venice highly correlated with GAR-mean CORRELATION OF GAR-SE WITH WIDER EUROPE: WINTER PRECIPITATION SUMMER Efthymiadis D, Jones PD, Briffa K, Böhm R, Maugeri M, 2007. Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on climate variability in the Greater Alpine Region of Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: D12104, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008021 Also Venice highly correlated with SE-mean Slide by R.Böhm SEASONAL TM-TRENDS DIFFERENT AT DECADAL SCALE SEASONAL HISTALP TEMP CRSM-LOW °C release 2008, s ingle yrs. and 20 years LP-filtered anomalies to 1901-2000 7 3 SUMMER HALFYEAR (AMJJAS) 1760-2007 2003: +2.8K 6 2 5 1 4 °C 0 3 -1 2 2006/7: +3.1K 1816: -2.0K -2 1 -3 0 -4 -1 -5 -2 -6 -3 -7 WINTER HALFYEAR (ONDJFM) 1760/61-2007/08 1784/: +2.8K -4 1760 1780 1800 -8 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Matulla C, Auer I, Böhm R, Ungersböck M, Schöner W, Wagner S, Zorita E. 2005. Outstanding past decadal-scale climate events in the Greater Alpine Region analysed by 250 years data and model runs. GKSS-Report 2005/4 - updated Slide by R.Böhm SAME LONGTERM TM-TRENDS IN ALL SUBREGIONS BUT REGIONAL WARMING TWICE AS STRONG AS GLOBAL EI-corrected regional mean temperature series in the greater alpine Region : ANNUAL MEANS 1760-2006 NW GAR-all SE CRU-NH SW 1 ca. 1° ca. 2° 0 -1 2000 1980 1960 1940 1920 1900 1880 1860 1840 1820 1800 1780 -2 1760 anomalies from 1901-2000 (K) NE GAR-all 2 source: HISTALP T01-2007 LS-subset, EI-corrected and 30-years LP-f iltered Slide by R.Böhm 4 +1 PRINCIPAL SUBREGIONS CORRELATION TEMPERATURE WINTER HALFYEAR (ONDJFM) 3 R2 = 0.93 2 NW SUBREGION SE NW 1 CORRELATION TEMPERATURE SUMMER HALFYEAR (AMJJAS) 3 0 -1 -2 R2 = 0.85 2 HIGH SUBREGION SE 1 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 VENEZIA 1 2 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 SW 0 VENEZIA 1 2 3 SE Slide by R.Böhm PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS: DIFFERENT SUBREGIONAL TRENDS („ALPINE DIPOLE“) NW NW SW SE Slide by R.Böhm 208 YEARS OF PRECIPITATION IN VENICE: Direct observations in Venice 1836-2005 blended with regional mean 1800-1835 and 2005-2007 mm VENEZIA-CAVANIS PRECIPITATION SPRING (MAM) 1800-2007 single values and 20-yrs lp-filtered 600 500 mm VENEZIA-CAVANIS PRECIPITATION SUMMER (JJA) 1800-2007 single values and 20-yrs lp-filtered 600 SPRING (MAM) 500 SUMMER (JJA) 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 database: ZAMG-HISTALP version 2008 VENEZIA-CAVANIS PRECIPITATION AUTUMN (SON) 1800-2007 mm single values and 20-yrs lp-filtered 600 0 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 database: ZAMG-HISTALP version 2008 VENEZIA-CAVANIS PRECIPITATION WINTER (DJF) 1800-2007 mm single values and 20-yrs lp-filtered 600 500 AUTUMN (SON) 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 database: ZAMG-HISTALP version 2008 WINTER (DJF) Slide by R.Böhm 0 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 database: ZAMG-HISTALP version 2008 Are these present trends going to continue? Temperature and precipitation in climate change scenarios A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy title Are models reliable? A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy From IPCC 4th AR Figure TS.23. (a) Global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black line) and as obtained from simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings. The thick red curve shows the multi-model ensemble mean and the thin lighter red curves show the individual simulations. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic events. (b) As in (a), except that the simulated global mean temperature anomalies are for natural forcings only. The thick blue curve shows the multimodel ensemble mean and the thin lighter blue curves show individual simulations. Each simulation was sampled so that coverage corresponds Figure TS.23 to that of the observations. {Figure 9.5} Model mean reliability Temperature change (C, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990), MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario DJF MAM JJA SON from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007 Precipitation change (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990), MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario DJF MAM JJA SON from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007 (1981-2000) minus (1961-1980) Precipitation change (%) 4 2 0 -2 Observed MGME -4 -6 -8 -10 Temperature change (C) -12 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Observed MGME 0.4 0.3 Observed (CRU data) and MGME ensemble average change in precipitation (upper panel) and surface air temperature (lower panel) for the four seasons over the full Mediterranean region (see Figure 1), land only, 1981-2000 minus 19611980. Units are % of 1961-1980 value for precipitation and degrees C for temperature 0.2 0.1 0 DJF MAM JJA SON from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007 Tmp-prec total (2081-2100) minus (1961-1980) Precipitation change (%) 0 -5 -10 B1 A1B A2 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Temperature change (C) 6 5 4 B1 A1B A2 3 2 MGME ensemble average change in mean precipitation (upper panel) and mean surface air temperature (lower panel) for the full Mediterranean region, the four seasons and different scenario. The changes are calculated between the periods 2081-2100 and 1961-1980 and include only land points. Units are % of 1961-1980 value for precipitation and degrees C for temperature 1 0 DJF MAM JJA SON from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007 MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario Precipitation Change (%) 0 -5 2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100 -10 -15 -20 -25 Temperature change (C) -30 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060 2061-2080 2081-2100 DJF MAM JJA SON from Giorgi and Lionello, 2007 Precipitation change (%) as a function of time, CMIP3 ensemble average, A1B scenario DJF, 2020s-1970s DJF, 2050s-1970s DJF, 2080s-1970s JJA, 2020s-1970s JJA, 2050s-1970s JJA, 2080s-1970s title Regional models A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Temperature change (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) PRUDENCE ensemble, 8 RCMs, A2 Scenario Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Summer (JJA) Autumn (SON) Slide by F.Giorgi Precipitation change (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) PRUDENCE ensemble, 8 RCMs, A2 Scenario Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Summer (JJA) Autumn (SON) Slide by F.Giorgi Precipitation change (%)- dx=20 km A2 (2071-2100) – Control (1961-1990) (Gao et al. 2005) Slide by F.Giorgi DJF MAM JJA SON Sea level: present trends A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Marcos and Tsimplis, 2008 Slide by M.Tsimplis Coastal sea level trends in the Mediterranean Sea level trends for the longest records Marcos and Tsimplis, 2008 Sea level rise 1993-2007 Slide by M.Tsimplis Vigo et al. 2005 Note the scales! Figure 4. Linear rate-of-change map of: (a) SLA for Period I (cm year-1); (b) SLA for Period II (cm year-1); (c) SST for the Period I (ºC year-1); (d) SST for Period II (ºC year-1Slide ). by M.Tsimplis Sea level trends • Best estimate: – Mediterranean sea level has been rising by about 1.2 mm/yr – Global sea level estimate 1.8 mm/yr Conclusions • Trends in the Mediterranean (based on Adriatic) 1.2 mm/yr ± 0.3 mm/yr over 90 years. Venice larger but consistent with Trieste after 1960. • During 1960-2000: – Trends smaller ~0.5 mm/yr – Pressure and wind responsible (-0.5 to -0.7 mm/yr) – Steric trends also negative (but high range from -0.3 mm/yr to – 2.0 mm/yr) – Externally to the Mediterranean forced about 1 mm/yr (after 1970) – NAO wind and pressure variability can cause trends of ~0.5 mm/yr for 50 years of data- no such test for steric or other effects. • Extremes changing in line with mean sea level • We have lived in a stable environment – things will probably change. THE FUTURE Local relative sea level trends result from from vertical land motion (tectonic and other geological and anthropogenic processes), postglacial rebound (past mass changes), present-day mass exchange, thermal expansion, ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy -0.48 -0.49 -0.5 -0.58 -0.68 -0.54 -0.48 Tectonic rate movement (mm\years) a – b / 125 ka -0.69 -0.60 -1.09 -0.84 a = Present day elevation of MIS 5.5 highstand deposits b = MIS 5.5 eustatic altitude (+6 m asl) -1.06 -1.04 -1.06 slide by F.Antonioli Slide by G.Spada Conclusions & open problems: i) The GIA signal is not constant across the Mediterranean: it significantly varies from place to place- Giving a mean value is meaningless. Now the GIA rate of sea level change can be estimated (with error bars) using public domain software (SELEN 2) based on realistic models (see http://flocolleoni.free.fr/SELEN.html), ii) Late holocene RSL data from the Mediterranean are useful to constrain the chronology of remote ice sheets. ICE3G is ruled out. Evidence of catastrophic rise events (CRE3) ~ 7 kyrs BP in the RSL data ? iii) GIA produces a large-scale subsidence in the Mediterranean - At the tide gauge of Genova and Trieste GIA accounts for a significant part of the observed rate of sea level change signal (up to 30% of the total trend). Interestingly, quite (GIAunsensitive) places exist (e. g. Israel). iv) In the NE Adriatic, GIA results from both far and near-field sources (ICE5G, ALPS). ALPS counteracts ICE5G. The amount of sea level change driven by GIA is (and will be in the next century) in the range of +/- 0.3 mm/yr (for “any” mantle rheology). This is small (~ 10%) compared to the observed rate in Venice (close to 2 mm/yr). Slide 1 Emissioni di CO2 in atmosfera negli scenari SRES (Nakicenovic et al, 2000). Le sigle identificano alcune variabili che condizionano l’emissione di gas serra: • A-B rispettivamente forte e ridotto fabbisogno energetico; • 1-2 rispettivamente sviluppo mondiale omogeneo e eterogeneo. The Steric Sea level: Methodology 1. Monthly T and S data are extracted from the global models simulations of 21st century climate scenarios 2. Steric sea level is computed for each grid point as the vertical integration of the specific volume anomaly from surface to bottom 0 1 η = ∫ αdp g −H Slide courtesy of M.Marcos 21st century projections Salinity T changes 0-2.5 ºC S changes 0-2 psu SRES A2 SRES A1B Committed CC Temperature Slide courtesy of M.Marcos 21st century projections Thermosteric component Committed CC Halosteric component Halosteric sea level: -70 to 20 cm SRES A1B Thermosteric sea level: 5 to 55 cm SRES A2 35 cm -25 cm Slide courtesy of M.Marcos Range of variation -42 to 52 cm -22 to 31 cm SRES A2 SRES A1B Committed CC 21st century projections Slide courtesy of M.Marcos Summary of the contributions to sea level rise by 2100 (in cm). The columns marked with an asterisk are obtained from the global values provided by the IPCC AR4 (2007). Thermosteric Halosteric Steric Atm. Pressure Mass addition* Equiv. Volume change* Comitted CC 3 to 17 -8 to -27 -12 to 8 0.0 SRES A1B 19 to 52 -22 to -49 -22 to 18 -0.2 4-20 13-32 SRES A2 24 to 61 -23 to -55 -17 to 31 -0.6 4-20 14-35 Slide courtesy of M.Marcos 21st century projections Spatial patterns of steric sea level Marcos and Tsimplis, 2008. “Comparison of results of AOGCMs in the Mediterranean Sea during the 21st century” JGR-Oceans in press Slide courtesy of M.Marcos 21st century projections The Adriatic Sea in the regional model Change in steric sea level under SRES A2 Slide courtesy of M.Marcos Synthesis for steric effects… • T and S projections for the 21st century predict warming and salinification of the Mediterranean Sea in the 3 scenarios considered of up to 2.5 ºC and 2 psu in average. Changes in the regional high resolution model are smaller • The effects on sea level are opposite. Thermosteric and halosteric changes could compensate each other, thus keeping the steric sea level component (average for the whole Mediterranean Sea) in the range -22 to +31 • It is necessary the development of high resolution regional models describing different climate scenarios in order to improve future estimates. •It is necessary to properly account for the interaction with the Atlantic as the Gibraltar Strait will play a key role in the future sea level rise depending on how the Atlantic Ocean will evolve. Mass contribution (based on IPCC 4th AR) is likely in the range 4-20cm But this is the greatest source of uncertainty… And there is no consensus A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Plausible Range of Future LSL Plag and Juettner Vermeersen et al. Slide by HP Plag Blue: 2050 Red: 2100 Green: 2200 Storminess … and “Aqua Alta” (storm surge) A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy RegCM experiment design Giorgi, F., X. Bi and J.S. Pal , 2004 a and b • Global Model: Hadley Centre HadAMH • • • – Dx = 1.25 lat x 1.875 lon – SST from HadCM3 run – Coupled sulfur model Regional model: ICTP RegCM – Dx = 50 km – SST, GHG and sulfate from HadAMH – aerosol effects Simulation periods – 1961-1990 : Reference run – 2071-2100 : Scenario run Scenarios: A2, B2 CTR B2 A2 Average monthly frequency (y-axis) of events exceeding a fixed threshold (x-axis) in the scenario simulations. The left panel considers the range 50-90 cm, the right panel the range 90-120cm Monthly max values 2-year return value 100-year return value This figure compares monthly values for the present climate (CTR) , A2 and B2 scenarios. Top panel (a): monthly maxima during the simulation, middle panel (b): 2-year return time surge levels, bottom panel (c): 20-year return surge levels (Units=m., no computation war carried out for the period Jun-Sep). Values refer to the CNR research station, located about 15km offshore in the Northern Adriatic. Future projections suggest a lower average level of the yearly highest surge event, with a large reduction of the corresponding 2-year return values during Fall. However, the level of extreme and potentially very hazardous surge events (shown by the 100-year return value) is projected to increase in future scenarios during November and February. A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Beware: this study is based on single model simulations, issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed. Results suggest a lower frequency of surge events in the future climate scenarios but disastrous events may be, marginally, more likely in future climate than in the present one A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy Conclusions: temperature and precipitation • Present regional warming about twice as strong as global • Present small negative trend of cloudiness and precipitation • Projections include a progressive increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation • Values depends on models, scenarios, season, but agree on a critical warming and precipitation reduction during the warm season • Average indicative values for the A1B scenario: 4K warming in summer, and 30% reduction of summer precipitation (controversial indications for winter) Conclusions: sea level (part I) • Trends in the Mediterranean (based on Adriatic) 1.2 mm/yr ± 0.3 mm/ yr over the period 1920-2007 (global value for the same period 1.8cm ) • Trends in extremes due to relative SLR, not to increase of storminess Conclusions: sea level (part II) • Local Sea rise results from from vertical land motion (tectonic, geological and anthropogenic processes), postglacial rebound, present-day mass exchange, thermal expansion, ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. • Sea level change driven by Tectonic is 0.6-07mm/year, driven by GIA is about -0.1 (negative) and in the range of +/- 0.3 mm/yr • Halosteric and thermosteric effects have opposite sign and are likely to provide a change of sea level in the range -22 to +31 cm by the end of the century • IPCC 4th AR suggest that mass contribution is likely in the range 4-20cm, but there is a large uncertainty and this value might be a substantial underestimate • Change in storminess likely play a minor role Questions that should be answered : * How would you rate the present level of knowledge? * Is further research needed? Which specific research? * Is the present climate condition well known? * Are you in condition of providing a scenario of likely future evolution? * What is the basis for such projection? * What is the level of uncertainty? * How is it possible to reduce it with further research? * Could you provide a likely range of values for the next decades? For the end of the 21st century? (including worse scenarios) A CHANGING COAST: CHALLENGE FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES November 25-28 2008 Venice Italy ONE OF 100 QUESTIONS OF A RECENTLY PUBLISHED REVIEW OF A SAMPLE OF >500 CLIMATOLOGISTS Bray D and von Storch H, 2007. The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change. GKSS 2007/11 Bray D and von Storch H, 2007. The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change. GKSS 2007/11 Mediterranean climate change scenarios: Impacts on the north Adriatic coast … A lot of progress has been reached in climate science and there is a lot of available useful information … However, presently, dealing with uncertainty and controversial quantitative analysis of future cliamte scenarios is part of the business Mediterranean climate change scenarios: Impacts on the north Adriatic coast P.Lionello, [email protected] With contribution by F.Antonioli, R. Böhm, F.Giorgi, M.Marcos, H.P.Plag, G.Spada, M.Tsimplis The end … Thanks for your attention