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MtnClim 2016 7 th Mountain Climate Conference M. F. Meier - U.S. Geological Survey Photographic Library Mountains Without Snow: What Are the Consequences? Sponsored by the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) October 17-20, 2016 Sleeping Lady Resort Leavenworth, Washington www.mtnclim.org The Lillian Glacier in the Olympic National disappeared between 1905 and 2010. This pair of photos is part of an exhibit that will be shown by Dr. Jon Riedel, a Geologist with the North Cascades National Park, during our Wednesday evening program. Taken in 1947. Photo credit NPS. Taken in 2010. Photo credit Bill Baccus. CONTENTS Sponsors ……………………………..……………….………………………...…1 Organizers………………………………………………………………………….2 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………3 Oral Presentations.……………...…………….……………..……...……………4 Poster Presentations.……………...…………….………………...……………14 Leavenworth Information ……………………………....………......................18 Property Map …………………………………………....………......................19 October 17-20, 2016 Sleeping Lady Resort Leavenworth, Washington www.mtnclim.org THANK YOU TO MtnClim 2016 SPONSORS! We are grateful for the generous support of the many sponsors of MtnClim 2016. Their contributions have allowed us to host the conference in a beautiful facility, keep registration costs low, support participation of students and young scientists, and ensure a high-quality scientific agenda. The variety of organizations involved with this year’s conference demonstrates broad interest in the scientific objectives of the Mountain Climate Conference series. U.S. Forest Service — Pacific Northwest Research Station, Office of Research and Development, Office of Sustainability and Climate Change General expenses, Early Career Scientists session, student support U.S. Geological Survey — Global Change Research Program, General expenses, travel expenses Northwest Climate Science Center Student support Western Washington University — Huxley College, Provost’s Office, Graduate School, Institute for Energy Studies General expenses, travel expenses, student support University of Washington — College of the Environment, Climate Impacts Group, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences General expenses University of Nevada-Reno — College of Science, Department of Geography, Sudeep Chandra General expenses Cascadia Partner Forum Coffee breaks We thank Richard Zabel and the Western Forestry and Conservation Association for assisting with registration and financial logistics. www.mtnclim.org 1 Organizers Andrew G. Bunn Professor Environmental Sciences Western Washington University David L. Peterson Research Biologist USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station Scotty Strachan Environmental Research Coordinator Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Advisory Group Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service Jill Baron, USGS Sudeep Chandra, University of Nevada Reno Diane Delany, USDA Forest Service Mike Dettinger, USGS Henry Diaz, NOAA Solomon Dobrowski, University of Montana Dan Fagre, USGS Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Institute Jeff Hicke, University of Idaho Jeremy Littell, USGS Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute Nathan Stephenson, USGS Christina Tague, UC Santa Barbara The ringer of the bells www.mtnclim.org 2 The 2016 Mountain Climate Conference will continue the tradition of excellence established by over a decade of MtnClim meetings by working at the intersection of climate and a host of other scientific disciplines including hydrology, ecology, and glaciology. The 7th Mountain Climate Conference will explore the central theme: Mountains Without Snow: What are the Consequences? In sessions on current science themes, climate policy and decision-support, MtnClim 2016 will look for opportunities to interweave discussions of the roles snowpack plays in water resources, power generation, ecophysiology, and human communities, with particular focus on the question: How ready are we to foresee the full range of consequences of mountains without snow? Every MtnClim meeting includes oral and poster presentations featuring keynotes by thought leaders in the field as well as highlighting exceptional early-career scientists, providing forums for resource managers, and integrating undergraduate and graduate students. www.mtnclim.org 3 Monday October 17, 2016 900am500pm Field trip (FULL): Fire Ecology of the Eastern Cascade Range Leader: Richy Harrod, fire ecologist, Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest Schedule: 830am - 500pm. Participants who are already signed up should meet in the Sleeping Lady parking lot. 400-600pm Registration Chapel Theater 600-730pm Welcome Dinner (included with registration) Kingfisher Restaurant and Wine Bar, Sleeping Lady Resort 730-830pm Keynote: MtnClim Weather Since 2014 (Chapel Theater) Speaker: Kelly Redmond, Regional Climatologist and Deputy Director Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 4 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org Tuesday October 18, 2016 (Chapel Theater unless otherwise noted) 800-900am 900am-noon Keynote: Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW): Evidence, Mechanisms and Research Needs Speaker: Ray Bradley, University Distinguished Professor in the Department of Geosciences & Director of the Climate System Research Center, University of Massachusetts There is increasing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, so that high mountain environments are experiencing more rapid changes in temperature than at lower elevations. This “elevation-dependent warming” (EDW) has important implications for the mass balance of high altitude glaciers and associated runoff, as well as for rare and endangered species that reside in restricted altitudinal zones within many mountain ranges. Detecting and attributing the causes of EDW is confounded by data limitations and the difficulties of modeling processes in complex terrain. We may not be monitoring some of the regions of the globe that are warming the most. Session: The Role of Climate in Mountain Lakes & Streams Chair: Jill Baron Atmospheric deposition of nutrients and dust, rapid warming, species introductions and extirpations, and increasing development are causing the greatest rates of change in mountain lakes and streams since deglaciation. We will explore contemporary mountain waters in a global change context, with presentations on physical, ecological, and biogeochemical observations and projections. 900-915 SPATIOTEMPORALLY VARIABLE THERMAL LANDSCAPES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PACIFIC SALMON IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Amy Fullerton, Fish Ecology Division, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 915-930 THE MASSIVE NORWEST STREAM TEMPERATURE DATABASE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE SCENARIOS: HOW CROWD-SOURCING AND SOCIAL NETWORKING FORGED A USER-COMMUNITY ACROSS THE AMERICAN WEST TO PROTECT AQUATIC BIODIVERSITY Dan Isaak, US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID 930-945 DOES SNOWPACK AFFECT LOW FLOWS IN WESTERN MOUNTAIN RIVERS AND STREAMS? Christopher Konrad, US Geological Survey, Washington Water Science Center, WA 945-1000 EFFECTS OF A SHIFTING SNOWMELT REGIME ON INFLOW MIXING IN A LARGE ALPINE LAKE Derek Roberts, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 5 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org 1000-1015 1015-1045am CLIMATE REGULATES ALPINE LAKE ICE COVER PHENOLOGY AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE Daniel Preston, Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Break 1045-1100 COMPARISON OF NITRATE CHEMISTRY AND PHYTOPLANKTON BETWEEN GLACIER-FED AND SNOW-FED MOUNTAIN LAKES WITHIN NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK Jason Williams, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington 1100-1115 DETECTING ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION OF NITRATE, ITS SOURCES AND EFFECTS ON LAKES IN THE UINTA MOUNTAINS, UTAH Beth Hundey, Department of Geography, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada 1115-1130 IS THERE A HISTORY OF EUTROPHICATION PRESERVED IN THE SEDIMENTS OF THE LOCH, ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK? Isabella Oleksy, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 1130-1145 CHANGING TROPHIC STATE OF AN ALPINE AND A SUBALPINE LAKE IN ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK Jill Baron, U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 1145-1200 Panel 1200-200pm 200-500pm Lunch (Kingfisher Buffet) Session: Contributed Talks I Chair: Dave Peterson 200-215 TALLYING UP THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT Michael Dettinger, US Geological Survey, Carson City, NV 215-230 ALASKA TREELINE AND FOREST CLIMATE: FROM THE PERHUMID TO THE ARCTIC Jeremy Littell, US Geological Survey, DOI Alaska Climate Science Center, Anchorage, AK 230-245 SNOW AND FOREST SURFACE TEMPERATURES: FEBRUARY 2016 YOSEMITE FIELD EXPERIMENT FROM POINT TO AIRPLANE TO SATELLITE Jessica Lundquist, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 245-300 SEASONAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY IN ENSO-INFLUENCE ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Stephanie McAfee, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno NV 6 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org 300-315 315-345pm TEMPERATURE SENSOR NETWORKS: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS, AND INTERPRETATION Stuart Weiss, Creekside Center for Earth Observation, Menlo Park, CA Break 345-400 INVESTIGATING HYDROCLIMATE VARIABILITY IN EASTERN WASHINGTON USING TREE-RING ISOTOPES (δ18O AND δ13C). Adam Csank, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 400-415 RESPONSE AND RESILIENCY OF WESTERN GRAY SQUIRRELS (SCIURUS GRISEUS) TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH CASCADES Kristina Bartowitz, Pacific Biodiversity Institute, Winthrop, WA 415-430 THE COMPOUNDING CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRE FOR A HIGH ELEVATION WILDFLOWER IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA Trevor Bloom, Department of Biology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 430-445 FIRE INFLUENCES FOREST STRUCTURE IN ALPINE TREELINE ECOTONES Alina Cansler, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 445-500 SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY OF VEGETATION INCREASES FOREST RESISTANCE TO WILDFIRE, AND MODERN FORESTS HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE, STAND-REPLACING EVENTS Michael Koontz, Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA 200-500pm Session: Contributed Talks II (NB: Woodpecker Room) Chair: Connie Millar 200-215 PLANT AND MICROBIAL FUNCTIONAL TYPES AT THE SNOWFIELDS AND PERIGLACIAL PATTERNED GROUND OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK Martha Apple, Department of Biological Sciences, Montana Tech, Butte, MT 215-230 FINE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON RED FIR SEEDLINGS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA Danielle Christianson, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 230-245 THE EFFECT OF SEVERE DROUGHT ON TREE MORTALITY IN OLDGROWTH MIXED CONIFER FORESTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA CALIFORNIA Adrian Das, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA 7 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org 245-300 THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, SUMMER DROUGHT, AND HABITAT QUALITY ON SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS OF SPRUCE BEETLE INFESTATION IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS Sarah Hart, Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 300-315 MICROSITES PROMOTING SEEDLING REGENERATION IN THE ALPINE TREELINE ECOTONE WORLDWIDE Adelaide Johnson, US Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Juneau, AK 315-345pm Break 345-400 ARE CLIMATE-GROWTH RELATIONSHIPS AT TREELINE CHANGING?: ENERGY LIMITATION AND MOUNTAIN HEMLOCK IN A WARMING CLIMATE Summer Kemp-Jennings, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 400-415 ECOPHYSIOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF SOUTHWEST SKY ISLAND FORESTS TO SEASONAL AND TOPOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY Patrick Murphy, School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 415-430 RAPID DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS AT TREELINE IN GREAT BASIN BRISTLECONE AND LIMBER PINE FORESTS Brian Smithers, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 430-445 TEMPORAL SHIFTS IN CARNIVORE DISTRIBUTION ALONG ELEVATIONAL GRADIENTS IN NEW ENGLAND: AN INVESTIGATION OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE Alexej Sirén, US Geological Survey, DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, Amherst, MA 445-500 USING CALIFORNIA’S HOTTER DROUGHT AS A PREVIEW OF THE FUTURE: THE LEAF TO LANDSCAPE FOREST VULNERABILITY PROJECT Nathan Stephenson, U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA 630-730pm Dinner (on your own, recommend Kingfisher) 730-930pm Poster Session (Salmon Gallery) With no host bar 8 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org Wednesday October 19, 2016 (Chapel Theater) 800-830am 830-noon Keynote: Managing an Electric Utility in a Time of Climate Change Speaker: Steve Wright, General Manager, Chelan Public Utility District and former BPA Administrator Climate change is likely to have tremendous impacts on electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest because it will affect generation supply, the amount and shape of demand, and environmental stewardship obligations. With 35 years experience in the Northwest electric utility industry and 15 as a CEO, Steve Wright will speak about the operational and policy challenges resulting from an uncertain climate future. Session: Mountains Without Snow--What Are the Consequences? Chair: Mike Dettinger Snowpacks during the recent 2011-2015 interval were in some years less than 50% of normal across the mountains of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin and as low as 5% of normal in California, sparking much talk of "snow drought.. These years have provided a (hopefully rare) opportunity to experience and explore conditions that are projected to become more common within the next century. This session aims to examine recent research and monitoring of changing snowpacks across the West, projections of future snowpacks, and what continued snow drought might mean to water and energy supplies, vegetation dynamics, wildlife populations, and geomorphology. Interpretations and dialogue will focus on the potential impacts to local communities and economies. The purpose of the session is to review existing science and identify gaps where further research is needed. A series of short presentations will be followed by an open discussion facilitated by the speakers. 830-850 EVIDENCE FOR SLOWER SNOWMELT IN A WARMER WORLD Keith Musselman, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 850-910 SLOWER SNOWMELT IN A WARMER WORLD WILL ALTER SUBSURFACE HYDROLOGY AND BASIN-SCALE WATER BUDGETS Adrian Harpold, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 910-930 NO SNOW NO FLOW?: NEW INSIGHTS FROM A YEAR WITHOUT SNOW IN THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, USA Gordon Grant, US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR 930-950 NEW METRICS FOR CHARACTERIZING MOUNTAIN SNOWPACKS IN A WARMING WORLD Anne Nolin, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 950-1010 SNOW PROMOTES FOREST GROWTH IN WATER-LIMITED PINE FORESTS—A RELATIONSHIP AMPLIFIED BY FOREST DENSITY Kelly Gleason, US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ 9 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org 1010-1030 1030-1100am SNOW VERSUS RAIN: DO CONIFER SPECIES DIFFER IN SOURCE WATER USE ACROSS A MONTANE ECOSYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS? Jia Hu, Ecology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT Break 1100-1120 STRATEGIES FOR CONSERVING MONTANE AMPHIBIANS IN A LESS SNOWY FUTURE Jonah Piovia-Scott, Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA 1120-1140 THE PHENOLOGY OF WILDERNESS USE Adrienne Marshall, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley 1140-1200 WATER CONSERVATION CHALLENGES IN MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN CANADA Hans Schreier, Faculty of Land & Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC 1200-100pm 100-200pm Lunch (Kingfisher Buffet) Machida Session: Valuing Snow and Ice as They Wane Chair: Connie Millar The cryosphere is important as an economic resource and is woven into the culture and psychology of mountain communities. How will these roles change as global warming thins the snowpack, melts the glaciers and thaws the permafrost? What will the social and economic impacts of these changes be? 100-115 LOW MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK DRIVES TEMPORAL MISMATCHES BETWEEN SOCIAL AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS IN MT. RAINIER NATIONAL PARK Ian Breckheimer, Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 115-130 IMPACTS OF DECREASING SNOWPACK IN MEDITERRANEAN MOUNTAINS: THE EXAMPLE OF THE SPANISH PYRENEES J. López-Moreno, Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, Spanish Research Council (CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain 130-145 ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO HYDROCLIMATIC CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL PERUVIAN ANDES Bryan G. Mark, Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 145-200 TREATIES, TRIBES, AND FISH: HOW INDIGENOUS RIGHTS TO HARVEST CAN INFLUENCE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY Emma Norman, Northwest Indian College, Bellingham, WA 10 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org 200-300pm Session: Why Does It Rain in the Mountains? Chair: Joe Casola Historically, surface weather instruments have been sited in low-lying areas. These networks do not accurately represent the climate in adjacent mountainous areas, especially for precipitation. This session will highlight recent research characterizing mountain precipitation in the estern U.S., including observational and modeling efforts. 200-203 INTRODUCTION AND GOALS OF THE SESSION Joe Casola, Climate Impacts Group, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA 203-211 THE FUNDAMENTAL IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXT: DISENTANGLING THE EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. Charles Luce, US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Boise, ID 2011-219 HIGH ELEVATION PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY AND INFERENCE OF SIERRA NEVADA PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FROM STREAMFLOW Brian Henn, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA 219-227 LESSONS FROM GAUGES ON HIGH John Abatzoglou, Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 227-235 PALEOCLIMATE PERSPECTIVES ON RAIN AND SNOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Erika Wise, Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 235-243 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS: WHAT DO THEY SAY ABOUT MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION? Guillaume Mauger, Climate Impacts Group, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA 243-300 Panel 300-330pm Break 330-530pm Session: Mountains Without Snow = Mountains Without Glaciers Chair: Dan Fagre This session will examine recent research and monitoring of glaciers in North America that are enhanced by better networks and utilize technological advances. These include integrated mass balance programs, developing geodetic approaches, linking glacier recession to basin scale water budgets, and examining ecosystem linkages. 330-350 MODERNIZING GLACIER MASS BALANCE RESEARCH Louis Sass, US Geological Survey, DOI Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK 350-410 BIOPHYSICAL LINKAGES IN COASTAL ALASKA’S ICEFIELD-TO-OCEAN ECOSYSTEM Shad O’Neel, US Geological Survey, DOI Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK 11 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org 410-430 FROM N=3 TO N=200,000: APPLICATION OF GPR TO MEASURE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GLACIERS Daniel McGrath, US Geological Survey, DOI Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK 430-450 AN INVENTORY OF GLACIERS ACROSS THE AMERICAN WEST AND THEIR CHANGES OVER THE PAST CENTURY Andrew Fountain, Department of Geology, Portland State University, Portland, OR 450-510 GLACIAL MASS BALANCE IN WASHINGTON’S NATIONAL PARKS Jon Riedel, US National Park Service, North Cascades National Park, SedroWoolley, WA 510-530 Panel 530-615 No-host reception (Salmon Gallery) 615-715pm 715pm Evening Program: Pacific Northwest Glacier Photography Exhibit Presenter: Jon Riedel (National Park Service) Jon Riedel will present a series of photographs illustrating change in Pacific Northwest glaciers during the last century. Most of the images span the last 50 years, while a few show changes during the past century. Dinner (on your own, recommend Kingfisher) 12 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org Thursday October 20, 2016 (Chapel Theater) 900-930am 930-1030am 930-100 1000-1030 1030-1100am Keynote: Advances in Snow Hydrology and Water Management with the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory Speaker: Thomas Painter, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA The Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) is a measurement and modeling system that combines scanning lidar, an imaging spectrometer, and process modeling to greatly improve understanding of snow distribution, snowmelt distribution, water allocation, runoff forecasting, and ecosystem function. Session: Early Career Scientists Chair: Sudeep Chandra BIG UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS IN ECOHYDROLOGY REQUIRE TRANSDISCIPLINARY MOUNTAIN SCIENCE Adrian Harpold, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, NV CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA: EFFECTS OF DROUGHT AND CLIMATE WARMING ON WATER TEMPERATURE IN A SNOWMELT DOMINATED LAKE Steven Sadro, Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA Break 1100-1130 PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS, SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT, AND CONIFER RESPONSE DURING THE 2012-2015 DROUGHT AS OBSERVED ACROSS INSTRUMENTED MOUNTAIN LIFE ZONES IN THE GREAT BASIN Scotty Strachan, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 1130-1200 RANGE-WIDE DEMOGRAPHIC RESPONSES OF AN ALPINE PLANT TO MUTIPLE CLIMATE DRIVERS Meagan Oldfather, Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 1200-100pm 100pm 100-500pm Lunch (Kingfisher Buffet) Meeting adjourns Workshop for Natural Resource Managers (Woodpecker Room) All MtnClim attendees are invited to participate in the workshop, with a special invitation to local federal, state, tribal, and private sector resource managers. Be prepared to engage in a lively discussion and to develop on-theground solutions. NOTE: There is no registration cost for resource managers to attend the workshop or the morning session of the conference. Contact Dave Peterson for more information. 13 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org POSTER SESSION The poster session is in the Salmon Gallery. Posters may be set up any time on Tuesday, Oct. 18, and presenters should be present that evening, 730-930 pm. Posters can remain up until Thursday, Oct. 20, 500 pm. SNOW, HYDROLOGY, AND CLIMATE SNOWY MOUNTAINS WITHOUT SNOW? INSIGHTS FROM A NEW SEDIMENT CORE FROM BLUE LAKE, KOSCIUZSKO NATIONAL PARK, AUSTRALIA Douglas H. Clark et al. CONSEQUENCES OF MIDLATITUDE PACIFIC STORM TRACK VARIABILITY FOR ECOSYSTEMS OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA Matthew Dannenberg & Erika Wise CHANGES FROM SNOW TO RAIN CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE STREAMFLOW AND GROUNDWATER RECHARGE DEPENDING ON LOCAL CLIMATE AND SOILS Patrick Longley et al. TRANSFERABILITY OF SPACE-FOR-TIME MODELS OF SNOW Abbigail Lute & Charles Luce IMPACTS OF FORECASTED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOWPACK IN THE NOOKSACK RIVER BASIN Robert Mitchell et al. TRENDS IN SNOW, RAIN AND STREAMFLOW IN WYOMING’S WIND RIVER MOUNTAIN RANGE Imtiaz Rangwala UNDERSTANDING WESTERN USA MOUNTAIN HYDROCLIMATOLOGY UNDER PRESENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS USING A NEXT-GENERATION VARIABLE-RESOLUTION GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL Alan Rhoades et al. 14 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org SNOW IN THE WESTERN US UNDER ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING Sihan Li et al. CLIMATOLOGY AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS TOPOGRAPHY AND MICROCLIMATE AND PEPPERWOOD PRESERVE, CALIFORNIA Pushpam Aji John et al. YELLOW-CEDAR IN ALASKA 1995-2013: POPULATION-LEVEL CHANGES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE Tara Barrett & Robert Pattison NICHE SPACES IN THE GROWTH AND POSITION OF HIGH ELEVATION BRISTLECONE PINE IN THE GREAT BASIN, U.S.A. Andy Bunn et al. UNCERTAINTIES IN DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN METHODOLOGICAL CHOICES FOR THE ESTIMATION OF EVAPORATIVE DEMAND Candida Dewes et al. ASPEN STAND VULNERABILITY AND UNDERSTORY COMPOSITION ALONG ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENTS Jamie Jarolimek & Eva Strand INITIATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO PLANNING FOR WHITEBARK PINE AND AMERICAN PIKA Jherime Kellermann et al. INVESTIGATING SUMMER LAPSE RATES IN DENALI NATIONAL PARK Stephanie McAfee et al. RESPONSE OF DOUGLAS-FIR NITROGEN UPTAKE TO CHANGES IN SOIL MOISTURE AND NITROGEN AVAILABILITY THROUGHOUT THE GROWING SEASON Claire Qubain et al. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TRADITIONAL MEDICINAL PLANTS Carol Wilson VISUALIZATION OF PLANT FUNCTIONAL TRAITS ALONG A GRADIENT OF ELEVATION IN THE CAIRNGORM MOUNTAINS OF SCOTLAND Damian Valles et al. TOPOGRAPHIC AND SEASONAL CONTROL ON N AVAILABILITY IN WESTERN MONTANE FOREST ECOSYSTEM Yuriko Yano et al. ECOLOGICAL DISTURBANCE CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN LODGEPOLE AND WHITEBARK PINE FORESTS IN THE WESTERN US Polly Buotte et al. 15 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org DISTURBANCE AT TREELINE: A MECHANISM FOR CHANGE OR STABILITY IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL CHANGE? Alina Cansler et al. REDUCING OUR IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY HYDROELECTRIC DAMS, BY IMPROVING THE TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE USED TO HARNESS HYDROELECTRIC POWER Christian Cultee ASSESSING HISTORICAL CLIMATE AND FINE FUEL DRIVERS OF REGIONAL-FIRE YEARS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON Emily Heyerdahl et al. PATTERNS OF POST-FIRE FOREST RECOVERY IN COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY Caitlin Littlefield RELATIONSHIP OF VEGETATION COMMUNITY AND SOIL MOISTURE PATTERNS TO WILDFIRE RE-BURN FREQUENCY: ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITY FRAMEWORK AND PRELIMINARY FIELD RESULTS FROM MT. ADAMS Kevan Moffett et al. VEGETATION MORTALITY, RESILIENCY AND RECOVERY FOLLOWING LARGE WILDFIRES IN THE METHOW VALLEY AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS (WA) Peter Morrison & Kristina Bartowitz AVALANCHES AS A DRIVER OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND A HAZARD IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA. Erich Peitzsch et al. PALEOECOLOGY AND HISTORICAL CHANGE PACIFIC CREST TREELINE: A TREELINE MONITORING TRANSECT Christopher Kopp UPPER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTIONS FOR IMPROVED HYDROLOGIC OPERATIONS Justin Martin et al. THE EFFECT OF BATHYMETRY IN SMALL LAKES ON THE COMPOSITION OF THE DIATOM FLORA: APPLICATIONS FOR EVALUATING PAST CLIMATE VARIABILITY Scott Starrat KEY DRIVERS OF HOLOCENE VEGETATION CHANGE AND FIRE ACTIVITY, MISSION MOUNTAINS, NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. David McWethy DO HIGH ELEVATION CONIFERS FIND REFUGIA AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND ON NORTH ASPECTS DURING WARM CLIMATES IN THE GREAT BASIN, USA? Constance Millar et al. NORTH AMERICAN 0.5 DEGREE GRIDDED SUMMER TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS Greg Pederson et al. 16 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org SIMULATED IMPACT OF PALEOCLIMATE CHANGE ON FREMONT NATIVE AMERICAN MAIZE FARMING IN UTAH AT THE MCA-LIA TRANSITION, CA. 12-13TH C. CE Marcus Thomson and Glen MacDonald PAST AND ONGOING OBSERVATIONS OF PINUS PONDEROSA TREE-RING GROWTH IN THE SHEEP RANGE, NV, USA Charles Truettner et al. CONNECTING WITH CITIZEN SCIENCE TO TRACE STABLE ISOTOPES IN RAIN AND SNOW IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN Erika Wise et al. PALEOCLIMATIC INDICATORS OF SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS, NAVAJO NATION Becky Brice et al. RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND PEOPLE CREATION OF AN UNDERGRADUATE MOUNTAIN RESEARCH INSTITUTE CURRICULUM John All et al. ADAPTING NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON, AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS Jessica Halofsky & David Peterson CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION LIBRARY Joanne Ho ADAPTING NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS: THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS David Peterson & Jessica Halofsky GENETIC CLASSIFICATION AND IDENTIFICATION OF OLD APPLE GENOTYPES IN THE KWINA ESTATE – A MOVE TOWARDS FOOD SOVEREIGNTY AND SECURITY Na’ta’ne Miles et al. CLIMATE CHANGE FROM AN INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVE: LOOKING AT THE INDIGENOUS ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO HELP PREPARE TRIBAL COMMUNITIES Lisa Redsteer 17 Abstractsforalloralandposterpresentationsareonlinewww.mtnclim.org Welcome to Leavenworth, Washington! Leavenworth is a small town in Chelan County, Washington, comprising an area of 3.24 km2. It is located at about 460 m elevation. Summer climate is warm; July maximum and minimum temperatures are 31C and 11C, respectively. Winter climate is cold; January maximum and minimum temperatures are 1C and -8C, respectively. Annual mean precipitation is 640 mm, most of which falls between October and March, and much of which is snowfall. Leavenworth sits on the southeast side of the North Cascades collage, a group of terranes that accreted to North America about 90 mya. As accretion continued, they were cut into horizontal (eastwest) slices. During the Eocene, the area was again cut into vertical slices, creating the Entiat Fault and Leavenworth Fault, which cuts through the western edge of town. During the Pleistocene, an alpine glacier originating from the southwest in the Mt. Stuart range made its way to where the town is today. Leavenworth sits on the terminal moraine of that glacier. About 19,000 years ago, a rock slide dammed the Columbia River south of Wenatchee. The temporary dam, in conjunction with one of the Lake Missoula floods, caused the water to back up the Wenatchee valley where it was stopped by the glacier at Leavenworth. As the glacier retreated, the south side of Leavenworth was a lake dammed up by the moraine. The bridge on the east side of town is a good vantage point to see where the Wenatchee River cuts through the moraine today. Local native vegetation is primarily dry, mixed conifer forest, dominated by ponderosa pine, Douglasfir, and grand fir. Most of the lower elevation forest was logged by the early 1900s, so extant forests, primarily within the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest, are second growth. Wildfire is an important ecological disturbance in these forests, and although fire occurrence has decreased greatly since pre-settlement times, several large fires have occurred during the past 10 years. Most current forests on public lands are managed for habitat restoration, water resources, recreation, and a wide range of ecosystem services. Much of the down-valley vegetation on private land, including shrub-steppe habitat, has been converted to fruit orchards. The original residents of the region were the the Yakama, Chinook and Wenatchi people, who have lived there for over 10,000 years. Native Americans prospered on the natural resources in the area, including forests, plentiful water, wildlife, and fish (including salmon), with villages moving seasonally from higher mountain locations to lower valley locations. These tribes persist in the area today, and their cultures and lifeways are celebrated annually at the Wenatchee River Salmon Festival. The Confederated Tribes of the Yakama Nation are well known for their highly successful resource management program on the Yakama Indian Reservation. The original Euro-American economy of Leavenworth was based on railroad transportation and logging, starting in the 1890s. This persisted well into the 20th century, and evidence of the railroad and timber economy remain in the area. Fruit production (especially apples) has been a prominent component of the economy in Chelan County for decades. Logging declined in the 1960s, and the economy began to struggle. After considerable discussion about how to turn things around, Leavenworth was “reborn” as a Bavarian-style town. The new theme saved the town and provides the economic foundation of Leavenworth today. Visitors now come to Leavenworth for a wide range of festivals, including the Oktoberfest celebration, as well as many recreational opportunities in the mountains. Based on its reputation for tourism and especially its Christmas festival, the Arts and Entertainment Network named Leavenworth the Ultimate Holiday Town USA. The population was 1,965 as of the 2010 census. 18 Property Map N ENTRANCE I CICLE R OAD MERCANTILE O’GRADY’S GREENHOUSE SNOWY OWL THEATER Snowy Owl Theater PARKING I R R I G AT I O N C H A N NEL MEADOW STAGE MEADOW FOUNTAIN CLUSTER BEYER SHAMAN SALMON TSUTAKAWA FOUNTAIN OF DREAMS QUAIL GUEST LAUNDRY FOREST CLUSTER CANYON WREN RECITAL HALL HOT POOL 140’s ANGELL EMISSARIES COTTONWOOD CLUSTER 120’s 150’s DRY SAUNA & SHOWER POOL MEADOW CLUSTER 110’s ASPEN LEAF RESORT SPA #1 FITNESS ROOM GUEST UNLOAD DIPPER LIBRARY PLAY BARN POP/ICE HUT 157 OFFICE/GUEST CHECK IN 100’s GROTTO BAR ROCK CLUSTER 15 8 MERGANSER EV CHARGING STATION GIFT SHOP NUTHATCH COUNCIL FIRE CIRCLE ROOKERY BUNKHOUSE ARTS WORKSPACES S TA F F A N D STUDENT PA R K I N G 130’s POND CLUSTER TADPOLE ICCA OFFICE PA R K I N G VOLLEYBALL/ HORSESHOES SLEEPING CABINS I C I C L E C RE E K C E NT E R F OR T H E ARTS CAM PU S ASPEN LEAF DAY SPA #2 SLEEPING LADY ORGANIC GARDEN EYRIE FLICKER WOODPECKER TERRACE WATER FEATURE CHAPEL THEATER/ SALMON GALLERY KINGFISHER RESTAURANT & WINE BAR CHIHULY ICICLES LE G E N D MEETING ROOMS DINING/BAR RESTROOMS LODGING PERFORMING ARTS WALKING PATH OFFICE/GIFT SHOP AMENITIES ROAD BBQ KNOLL KINGFISHER STAGE KINGFISHER FIRE CIRCLE ICICLE CREEK Kingfisher Restaurant & Wine Bar Hours: ~ Dinner Seatings: Sunday – Thursday, 5:30 – 8 pm; Friday & Saturday, 5:30 – 8:30 pm Play Barn Hours: 6 am – 10 pm. Accessible with your room key. ~ Magpies’ Wine Bar opens at 5:30 pm daily O’Grady’s Hours: Opens at 7 am daily ~ Breakfast Served: 7:30 – 9 am, Monday–Friday; Extended hours until 10 am on Saturday & Sunday The Grotto Bar Hours: Opens at 4 pm Labor Day until Memorial Day, and 5 pm beginning Memorial Day. Tapas Menu served from 5 – 9 pm The Mercantile Hours: 9 am – 4:30 pm daily Rock Pools Hours: 5 am – midnight, with adult-only hours from 5 – 7 am and 10 pm – midnight. Accessible with room key. Aspen Leaf Spa Hours: Dial ‘350’ for appointment availability. Accessible with your room key 24 hours: Fitness Room, Library, Sauna, Guest Laundry Guest Service is open 24 hours and is just a call away. Dial ‘0’ from any room or telephone on property. Sleeping Lady is a smoke-free environment inside and out.