Download - UNDP Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change and Poverty Reduction
Links – the why and how of integrated
planning
Usman Iftikhar
Policy Advisor
Poverty Group, BDP
UNDP New York
Outline of the presentation
• Why the need to understand the nexus between
climate change and poverty in its multi-dimensions?
• About the UNDP Climate-Poverty Toolkit
• What are the climate-poverty links, and how are
they expected to manifest through different
transmission mechanisms?
• How can they be measured?
• What can be done in response? (details in 2nd
presentation)
• Specific example of climate, agriculture, food
security and poverty links and approaches to assess.
Poverty and the Environment – the
first two way relationship
 Poverty is multidimensional
 MDGs part of the story (income, food , education, health
and environment)
 1987 – Brundtland Commission Report
 Poverty both cause and effect of environment problems
 Degradation of local commons by the poor further
entrenched poverty
 Taken further by Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
linking ecosystem services and well-being (2005)
Ecosystems Services-Well Being Nexus
Ecosystems jointly
owned asset generating
Livelihoods
Food Security
Energy Access
Health
Gender
 Reduced vulnerability
Vulnerabilities
Incentives weak
Ecosystems matter more for poor
(Zimbabwe)
Degrading ecosystems undermine key
asset
Climate change: cause….
• Green house gases
(GHG)
– Carbon dioxide
• Fossil fuel use
• Land use changes
– Methane and nitrous
oxide
• Agriculture
Source: IPCC
….and effect
• Trap radiations
• Warming
– Air and ocean
temperatures up
– Snow and ice melting
– Average sea level rise
• Accelerate ecosystem
degradation
Source: IPCC
Three generalized impacts
• Long term changes in averages
– Temperature
– Precipitation
– Sea levels
• Changes in variability
– More weather variation from year to year
• Droughts and floods
– More frequent, and worse extreme weather
events
• Hurricanes
Complicating Matters – Poverty,
Climate, Ecosystems Nexus
• Climate system and ecosystems linked – e.g. as
forests decline, climate worsens and as climate
worsens, forests change
• Climatic shocks hasten decline in ecosystem services
• Global commons alters incentives for mitigation
Climate change shifts the PEN –
the second two-way relationship
Poverty Reduction
1. Increase GHG levels/ecosystem imp
2. Enable adaptation
Climate change
1. Worsen poverty
2. Financing for poverty
reduction
Evidence and lessons learned on poverty and
inequality reduction intra/inter generationally
• sustained economic growth is necessary but not sufficient;
• economic growth in sectors that provide employment,
production and entrepreneurship opportunities to the poor.
– These include sectors where the poor are more likely to find their livelihoods
such as agriculture, fishing, forestry and other natural resources; and others
where unskilled labor is important.
• redistribution of the benefits of growth through public
spending in the provision of equitable, quality services (in
health, energy, education, water and sanitation and others) for
the poor
– that helps improve their – and their children’s –skills and productivity.
– In turn, the poor boost growth when they are equipped with assets and
resources to actively take part in the development process;
Evidence and lessons learned on poverty and
inequality reduction intra/inter generationally
• pro-active focus on women, the excluded, and hard to reach
population groups who may need special help to gain access
to employment and quality services.
– These may have important multiplier effects, positively affecting several
dimensions of well-being – for example, educated mothers tend to have
better nourished and educated children;
• empowering the poor and marginalized – including women –
to play an effective role in the decisions that determine their
long term well-being;
• providing protection against negative shocks – including those
arising from global crises such as those due to high food
prices – so as to avoid slowdowns or reversals in poverty
reduction.
Implications for LeCRD and Green Economy for
Poverty Reduction
• maintains growth and reduces emissions for the economy, while
promoting the creation of jobs and other economic
opportunities in sectors that predominantly employ the poor;
• generates adequate amounts of public revenues to allow
investment in quality services with equitable access by the poor;
• retains biodiversity and ecosystem services, while seeking to
maintain in sustainable supply of food as well as livelihoods of
the poor who are dependent on them;
• enhances energy and resource efficiency in the economy,
including through the equitable access to energy by the poor
and the promotion of its efficient use;
• ensures resilience to environmental (and other) risks through
developing adaptive capacities.
Supporting countries to shift to ProPoor LeCRD/green economy
Provide capacity and policy support to partner countries on
nationally-led pro-poor LeCRD/green economy actions:
• Institutional arrangements and reform; coordination structures and
alignment for national policy coherence
• Integrated assessments to link and assess the impacts of climate risks
and ecological scarcities on growth and multi-dimensional poverty
• Prioritizing pro-poor green economy policy response and innovative
options
• Costing and budgeting of policy responses and identifying and accessing
a variety of climate and environmental financing mechanisms
• Identifying and addressing implementation bottlenecks
Climate-Poverty Toolkit (coming soon)
Integrated Assessments
• Allow Ministries of Planning, Finance, and other sectoral ministries
to effectively integrate prospective climate and risks into their
development planning frameworks by:
– Synthesizing and condensing existing knowledge on how prospective
climate change vulnerabilities and risks, operating through transmission
mechanisms, link to the multiple dimensions of poverty.
– Producing an objective review of assessment methodologies (from the
climate vulnerability assessments and economic and social impact
assessments) to inform country level understanding of:
Climate-Poverty Toolkit
• The types of assessment methodologies available for informing
climate and development decisions, and the likely outputs that such
assessments produce
• The combination (s) of methodologies which, when applied, can help
to bridge the gap between the findings of climate risks/vulnerabilities
assessments and growth/multi-dimensional poverty impacts
assessments, by working through specific transmission mechanisms.
• Knowledge and information gaps that would need to be addressed,
even after existing methodologies are applied
• Go beyond GDP – Models often model poverty impacts
through GDP – not always a good guide for policy.
• Be credible but practical in its application.
The Climate-Poverty-Development Nexus
Global Climate Change
Variability in temperature, rainfall, and disasters
Average changes in temperature, rainfall, and sealevels
Long-Term Effects (Stresses)
Short-Term Effects (Shocks)
Extreme events &
variability: Floods,
Droughts, Coastal
storms, etc.
Direct Impact:
Assets, Property
Destroyed, Lives
Lost, etc.
Dual Impact on Growth:
• Income Growth through decreased
employment, productivity, and capital
investment
• Proceeds from Growth: decreases in social
spending (e.g., education, health, water,
sanitation, energy, etc.)
Slow onset,
continuous hazards:
e.g. changes in
temperature and
precipitation
Growth Impacts
Impacts on Sectors:
Food Security, Health,
Ecosystems, Gender, &
Labor Productivity
Shocks and changes to ecosystems and other
sectors affect levels of capital accumulation
and expectations of future investment
Impact on Multi-dimensions of Poverty
March 2012
The Climate-Poverty-Development Nexus
Tools &
Methodologies
Global Climate Change
Variability in temperature, rainfall, and
disasters
Short-Term Effects
(Shocks)
Average changes in temperature, rainfall, and
sea-levels
Long-Term Effects
(Stresses)
Slow onset,
continuous hazards:
e.g. changes in
temperature and
precipitation
Extreme events &
variability: Floods,
Droughts, Coastal
storms, etc.
Direct Impact:
Assets, Property
Destroyed, Lives Lost,
etc.
Shocks and changes to
ecosystems and other sectors
affect levels of capital
accumulation and
expectations of future
investment
Dual Impact on Growth:
Income Growth through decreased employment,
productivity, and capital investment
Proceeds from Growth: decreases in social safety
(e.g., education, health, water, sanitation,
energy, etc.)
Impacts on Sectors:
Food Security, Health,
Ecosystems, Gender, &
Labor Productivity
Impact on Multi-dimensions of Poverty
Growth
Impacts
Climate science processors: What’s
happening to your climate?
Resources to help policy makers
understand changes in climate and
climate stressors specific to their
country or region.
Climate impacts screening tools:
What are the expected effects?
Broad indices that assess vulnerability
and impacts.
Sectoral tools for impacts and
adaptations: How can you adapt?
Address specific sectors in the context
of climate change.
Poverty measurement and assessment tools:
How do we apply a poverty lens to these
effects?
Mechanisms to measure levels of and
reductions in poverty.
Tools &
Methodologies
1. Climate Science
Processors: What will
happen to the climate?
2. Climate impacts
screening tools: What
are the expected
effects?
3. Sectoral tools for
impacts and
adaptations: How can
you adapt?
4. Poverty
measurement and
assessment tools:
How do we apply a
poverty lens to these
effects?
Focus: Food Security
Example:
Inputs, Outputs, and Implementation
Agricultural Sector
Inputs: Historical temperature and precipitation data,
IPCC GCM scenarios
Outputs: Projections temperature and precipitation
Implementation: Combine historical data and
projected changes to generate projections under
various scenarios
Inputs: Projections of temperature and precipitation,
geographic data
Outputs: Understanding of geographical zones (where
to focus efforts) and production (types of crops and
livestock, irrigated versus rain-fed)
Implementation: FAOstat, World Bank Portal, World
Bank Development Indicators
Inputs: Types of crops and livestock, elevation,
temperature, rainfall, soil type, market prices of crops
Outputs: Costs and changes in yields across climate
scenarios for each adaptation, irrigation demand, net
economic benefits Implementation: Aquacrop,
CropWat, CLIRUN, WEAP, stakeholder meetings,
economic analyses
Inputs: Living standards surveys, Census data, surveys
on eating habits or nutritional contents of food, health
indicators
Outputs: Survey of the distributional impacts of
climate change adaptations on poverty; Net benefits
to impoverished areas and groups, Implementation:
Poverty and Social Impact Analyses; Combined PRSI
and NAPA approach; Measurements of the impacts
and improvements of adaptation to the poor
Determining Changes in
Climate with Respect to
Agricultural Productivity
Analyzing Expected Effects
of Climate Change on
Agriculture
Evaluating the Impacts
and Most Effective
Agricultural Adaptation to
Climate Change
Applying a Poverty Lens
on impacts and
Agricultural Adaptations
Policy implications – for pro-poor
LeCRD/GE
• Transitioning to LeCRD/Green Economy
– Understanding how poor can be effected in transition and
identify interventions (jobs can be lost, re-skilling needed for new
industries)
• Use social protection to make transition possible
• Making LeCRD/Green Economy pro-poor
– Reconciling pro-poor growth with green growth
• Policy instruments to enable private sector to innovate and adopt
technologies
• Redistribute growth benefits to build assets
• Invest in sectors that matter to the poor for livelihoods – agriculture,
forests, fisheries to increase productivity in a changing climate
Policy implications – for pro-poor
LeCRD/GE
• Making the LeCRD/Green Economy pro-poor
– Building resilience to climatic shocks
• Social protection policies and programmes linked to climate
change impacts/natural disasters
• Through accelerating poverty reduction and building assets
(wealth and human capital) to build (auto) adaptive capacity
• Pro-poor adaptation - which generates jobs such as through
building protective infrastructure
• Diversifying livelihoods including away from climate-sensitive ones
• Identifying additional elements to climate-proof specific MDGs as
part of the efforts to accelerate and sustain MDG gains
• New instruments for risk sharing
• Linking Climate finance to the achievement of poverty reduction
and the MDGs
Toolkit is due to be completed in July 2012,
and we are looking forward to piloting the
application in a few countries before
finalizing ….
Thank you!