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Towards a coherent framework of research on potential effects of climate change on Australian alpine zones. A report by the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies compiled and edited by Ken Green The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified a number of potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems in Australia. The alpine regions of Australia are considered by the IPCC to be highly vulnerable to climate change. The Australian Greenhouse Office is developing a work plan dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation which, among other actions, identifies setting priorities for research and assessments of climate change impacts. Following a meeting at the offices of Environment Australia in May 2002, the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies was asked (24 May 2002) to assist the Australian Greenhouse Office in compiling a database of existing research in alpine regions dealing with climate change or where climate change is seen as a threatening action. The Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, formed in February1998 is an umbrella organisation for alpine and mountain researchers of all disciplines throughout Australia. The institute has no permanent geographic location but has a cyber secretariat. The rapid communication among researches engendered by electronic communication enabled a rapid process of compiling a list of known publications, relevant long term data sets or studies and proposed or desirable studies. Again, the ability to communicate rapidly, together with the enthusiasm of members allowed an iterative process that led to the production of this report in just over three weeks. It may have some drawbacks, for example not all publications could be checked for their relevance, and the dates and locations of other studies could not be checked in the short time available. However, what is presented here is the first attempt to compile these data in one report, and as such this presents a useful resource for those interested in climate change and greenhouse warming in Australia. Members of the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies who responded so quickly are thanked for their efforts. The report consists of four sections. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 1. Publications dealing with climate change or where climate change is seen as a threatening action. 2. A table of existing monitoring sites and programs 3. A table of suggested monitoring sites and programs 4. An extract from Peter Coyne (2000) - Protecting the Natural Treasures of the Australian Alps database section of threats relating to climate change. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Publications dealing with climate change or where climate change is seen as a threatening action. Contact details of authors belonging to the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies can be obtained from our website at : aias.org.au Note: due to time constraints and multiple submissions (each person with their own weird formatting styles) formatting is not necessarily consistent. Beaumont L. and Hughes L. (in press) Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterflies in response to climate change. Global Change Biology Brereton R., Bennett S. and Mansergh I. 1995. Enhanced greenhouse climate change and its potential effect on selected fauna of south-eastern Australia: a trend analysis. Biol. Conserv. 72, 339-54. Bennett, S., Brereton, R., Mansergh, I., Berwick, S., Sandiford, K. and Wellington, C. 1991. The Potential Effect of the Enhanced Greenhouse Climate Change on Selected Victorian Fauna. Technical Report Series no. 123. Arthur Rylah Institute, Victoria. Bridle, K. and Kirkpatrick, J.B., 1997. Local environmental correlates of variability in the organic soils of moorland and alpine vegetation, Mt Sprent, Tasmania. Aust. J. Ecol., 22, 196-205. Bridle, K.L. and Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1998. Why do tall herbs rarely dominate Tasmanian alpine vegetation? Evidence from islands in the Ouse River system. Pap. Proc. R. Soc. Tasm. 132, 9-14. Bridle, K.L. and Kirkpatrick, J.B., 1999. The comparative effects of stock and wild vertebrate grazing on treeless subalpine vegetation, eastern Central Plateau, Tasmania. Aust. J. Bot. 47, 817-834. Bridle, K.L. and Kirkpatrick, J.B. 2001. Impacts of grazing by vertebrate herbivores on the flower stem production of tall alpine herbs, Eastern Central Plateau, Tasmania. Australian Journal of Botany 49, 459-470. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Bridle, K.L., Kirkpatrick, J.B., Cullen, P. and Shepherd, R.R. 2001. Recovery in alpine heath and grassland following burning and grazing, eastern Central Plateau, Tasmania. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, 33, 348-356. Brown, J. A. H. and Millner, F. C. 1989. Aspects of the meteorology and hydrology of the Australian Alps. Pp. 297-332 in “The Scientific Significance of the Australian Alps: The Proceedings of the First Fenner Conference” ed. by R. B. Good. The Australian Alps National Parks Liaison Committee/Australian Academy of Science. Budin, R. 1985. Interannual variability of Australian snowfall. Aust. Met. Mag. 33, 145-159. Busby, J.R. 1988. Potential impacts of climate change on Australia's flora and fauna. Pp. 387-398 in “Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change” ed by G.I. Pearman. CSIRO/Brill, Melbourne. Chiew F. H. S.and McMahon T. A. 2002. Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow. Hydrol. Processes 16,1235-45. CIG, 1992. “Climate Change Scenarios for the Australian Region”. Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, 6pp. CIG, 1996. “Climate Change Scenarios for the Australian Region”. Climate Impact Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, 8 pp. Clarke P. J. and Martin A. R. H. 1999. Sphagnum peatlands of Kosciuszko National Park in relation to altitude, time and disturbance. Aust. J. Bot. 47, 519-36. Clemann, N. 2002. A herpetofauna survey of the Victorian alpine region, with a review of threats to these species. Victorian Naturalist119, 48-58. Clemann, N. (in press). Notes on the threatened endemic Victorian Alpine Bog Skink Pseudemoia cryodroma Hutchinson and Donnellan 1992 (Scincidae: Lygosominae): a range extension, habitat preferences and identification difficulties. Herpetofauna Colquhoun J. R. 1978. Snowfall on the New South Wales Snowy Mountains. Tech. Rep. 25 Bureau of Meteorology, Australia Costin, A. B., Gay, L. W., Wimbush, D. J. and Kerr, D. 1961. Studies in catchment hydrology in the Australian Alps. III. Preliminary snow investigations. C.S.I.R.O., Division of Plant Industry Technical Paper No. 15. 31pp. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Costin, A. B., Jennings, J. N., Black, H. P. and Thom, B. A. 1964. Snow action on Mount Twynam, Snowy Mountains, Australia. J. Glaciology 5, 219-228. Costin, A. B., Jennings, J. N., Bautovich, B. C. and Wimbush, D. J. 1973. Forces developed by snowpatch action, Mt Twynam, Snowy Mountains, Australia. Arct. Alp. Res. 5, 121-26. Davis, C.W. 1998 Meteorological aspects of snow. Pp 3-34 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Duus, A. L. 1992. Estimation and analysis of snow cover in the Snowy Mountains between 1910 and 1991. Aust. Met. Mag. 40, 195-204. Galloway, R.W. 1988. The potential impact of climate changes on Australian ski fields. Pp. 428-37 in “Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change” ed by G.I. Pearman. CSIRO/Brill, Melbourne. Galloway, R.W., Kiernan, K. and Peterson, J. A. 1998. Effects of snow on the landscape Pp 69-80 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Good, R.B.1998. The impacts of changing snow regimes on the distribution of alpine vegetation. . Pp 98-112 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Green K. 1997. Inter-annual, seasonal and altitudinal differences in invertebrate activity in the Snowy Mountains. Victorian Naturalist 114, 222-229. Green, K. (ed.), (1998) Snow: A Natural History; An Uncertain Future. Australian Alps Liaison Committee, Canberra. Green K. 1998. A winter niche: the subnivean space. Pp 125-140 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Green K., Mansergh, I.M. and Osborne, W.S. 1992. The fauna of the Australian Alps: conservation and management. Review Géographie Alpine 2&3 381-407. Green, K. and Osborne, W. S. 1994. “Ecology of Snow”, Pp. 16-29 in “Wildlife of the Australian Snow Country.” Reed Books, Chatswood NSW. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Green, K. and Osborne, W. S. 1998. Snow as a selecting force on the alpine fauna. Pp 141-164 . in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Green, K. and Pickering, C. M. 2002. A scenario for mammal and bird diversity in the Australian Snowy Mountains in relation to climate change. pp241-249 in: C. Koerner and E.M. Spehn (eds) Mountain Biodiversity: a Global Assessment. Parthenon Publishing, London. Haylock, M. R., Whetton, P. H. and Desborough, C. 1994. Climate Change and Snow Cover Duration in the Victorian Alps. EPAV Publication No 403 EPAV, Melbourne. Hewitt, S.D. 1994. The impact of enhanced-greenhouse conditions on the Australian snow-pack in proceedings of Symposium on Snow and Climate, Geneva, 2223 Sept. 1994, Department of Geography, University of Geneva. Hewitt, S. 1997. An impact analysis of an enhanced greenhouse climate change on the Australian alpine snow pack. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Melbourne, Australia. Lesley Hughes (in prep.) Climate change and Australia: trends, scenarios and impacts Jennings, J. N. and Costin, A. B. 1978. Stone movement through snow creep, 19631975, Mount Twynam, Snowy Mountains, Australia. Earth Surface Processes 3, 3-22. Keage, P. 1990. Skiing into the Greenhouse. Trees and Natural Resources 2, 15-18. Kirkpatrick, J.B. 2002. Factors influencing the spatial restriction of vascular plant species in the alpine archipelagoes of Australia. In C. Körner & E.M. Spehn (eds.): Mountain Biodiversity: a global assessment. Parthenon Publishing, London, in press. Kirkpatrick, J.B., Bridle, K. and Lynch, A.J.J. in submission. Changes in vegetation and geomorphological features in alpine vegetation on Hill One, Tasmania, 1985-2001. Kirkpatrick, J.B., Bridle, K. and Wild, A. 2002. Succession after fire in alpine vegetation on Mount Wellington, Tasmania. Australian Journal of Botany 50, 145–154. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Fowler, M. 1998. Locating likely glacial refugia in Tasmania using palynological and ecological information to test alternative climatic models. Biological Conservation, 85, 171-182. Kirkpatrick, J.B., Nunez, M., Bridle, K. and Chladil, M. 1996. Explaining a sharp transition from sedgeland to alpine vegetation on Mount Sprent, south-west Tasmania. J. Veg. Sci. 7, 763-768. Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Scott, J.J. 2002. Change in undisturbed vegetation on the Macquarie Island coastal slopes. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, 34, in press. Kirkpatrick, J.B, Bridle, K.L, and Lynch, A.J.J. (submitted) Changes in alpine vegetation related to geomorphological processes and climatic change on Hill One, Southern Range, Tasmania, 1989-2000. Australian Journal of Botany König, U. 1998 Climate change and the Australian ski industry . Pp 207-223 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. König, U., 1997 (in press). Tourism in a warmer world: Implications of climate change due to an enhanced greenhouse effect for the Australian ski industry. CRES Working Paper Series, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. König, U., submitted. Climate change and tourism: market research in the Australian Alps. Australian Journal of Leisure. Krockenberger, M and Kinkade, P. 1997. The Impacts of Global Warming. Habitat Vol. 25 No. 4. pp 13-20. ACF. August 1997. Lawrence, R.E. 1999. Vegetation changes on the Bogong High Plains from the 1850s to 1950s. Proceedings & Transactions of the Royal Society of Victoria, 111, 29-52 Lawrence, R.E. 1998. Historical ramifications of climate change in the Alpine National Park. In: Celebrating the parks: a symposium on parks history: proceedings. Ed: E. Hamilton-Smith. Mt Buffalo Chalet, Victoria, 16 to 19 April 1998: 83-92 Rethink Consulting P/L Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Marchant, H. J. 1998. Life in the snow: algae and other microorganisms. . Pp 83-97 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Osborne, W. and Davis, M. 1997. Long-term variability in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover in the Snowy Mountains: is there a link with the decline of the Southern Corroboree Frog (Pseudophryne corroboree)? Report to the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Kosciusko Region Heritage Unit, Jindabyne. Osborne, W. S., Davis, M.S. and Green, K. 1998. Temporal and spatial variation in snow cover. Pp 56-68 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Pickering, C.M. and Armstrong, T. 2000. Climate Change and the Plant Communities of the Kosciuszko Alpine Zone in the Australian Alps. Mountain Tourism Research Report No. 1. Joint publication of the Cooperative Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism and the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies. p 23. Pickering, C.M. and Armstrong, T. (Under Review) Potential impact of predicted climate change on plant communities in the Kosciuszko alpine zone. Victorian Naturalist Ruddell, A. R., Budd, W. F., Smith, I. N., Keage, P. L. and Jones, R. 1990. The South East Australian Alpine Climate Study. Report by University of Melbourne for the Alpine Resorts Commission Smith, M.J., Osborne, W.S. and Hollis, G.J. 1998. Long-term variability in precipitation and temperature on the Baw Baw plateau: is there a link with the decline of the endemic Baw Baw Frog? Report to the Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Warragul. Scherrer, P. and Pickering, C. 2001. Effects of grazing, tourism and climate change on the alpine vegetation of Kosciuszko National Park. Victorian Naturalist 118, 93-99. Scherrer, P. and Pickering C. M. ms. Restoration of alpine herbfield vegetation on a closed walking track in the Snowy Mountains, Australia. Submitted to Restoration Ecology. Restoration Ecology. (in rev.). Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Schreider, S.Yu., Whetton, P.H., Jakeman, A.J. and Pittock, A.B. (In press) Runoff modelling for snow-affected catchments in the Australian Alpine region, eastern Victoria. Journal of Hydrology. Scott, J.J. and Kirkpatrick, J.B. (In press) Changes in undisturbed vegetation on the coastal slopes of Macquarie Island, 1980-1995. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research. Slatyer, R. O., Cochrane, P. M. and Galloway, R. W. 1985. Duration and extent of snow cover in the Snowy Mountains. Search 15, 11-12. Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Authority 1993. Snowy Precipitation Enhancement Project: A proposal to Evaluate the Feasibility of increasing Snow Precipitation over the Snowy Mountains Area. Draft Environmental Impact Statement. SMHEA, Cooma. Walter, A.M.J. and Broome, L.S. 1998. Snow as a factor in animal hibernation and dormancy. Pp165-191 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Wearne L. J., Morgan J. W. 2001. Recent forest encroachment into subalpine grasslands near Mount Hotham, Victoria, Australia. Arctic Antarctic Alpine Res. 33, 369-77. Whetton P.H., Haylock M.R., and Galloway, R.W. 1996. Climate change and snowcover duration in the Australian Alps. Climatic Change, 32, 447-479. Whetton P.H.1998. Climate change impacts on the spatial extent of snow cover in the Australian Alps . Pp 195-206 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra. Whetton, P.H., Fowler, A.M., Haylock, M.R. and Pittock, A.B. 1993. Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia. Climatic Change, 25, 289-317. Whetton , P.H., Hennessy, K.J., Wu, X., McGregor, J.L., Katzfey, J.J., and Nguyen, K. (In press.) Fine Resolution Assessment of Enhanced Greenhouse Climate Change in Victoria: Part 2, Consultancy report by CSIRO for the Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment. Whetton , P.H., Katzfey, J.J., Nguyen, K., McGregor, J.L., Page, C.M. Elliott, T.I. and Hennessy, K.J. (In press) Fine Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for New Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 South Wales, Part 2: Climatic Variability, Consultancy report by CSIRO for the New South Wales Environment Protection Authority. Whinam, J. and Chilcott, N. (In press) Floristic description and environmental relationships of Sphagnum communities in NSW and the ACT and their conservation management. Cunninghamia Whinam, J., Barmuta, L.A. and Chilcott, N. 2001. Floristic description and environmental relationships of Tasmanian Sphagnum communities and their conservation management. Australian Journal of Botany 49, 673-685. Whinam, J., Hope, G.S., Clarkson, B.R., Buxton, R., Alspatch, P.A. and Adam, P. (In press). Sphagnum in peatlands of Australasia: The resource, its utilisation and management. Wetlands Ecology and Management Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Monitoring Existing Monitoring Name Discipline State Location Description Year BOM Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Weather station at Kiandra 1887-1995 BOM Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Weather station at Cabramurra 1955- continuing BOM Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Perisher Valley 1976 BOM Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Thredbo Charlottes Pass (1930) (Crackenback 1966 Valley 1969), BOM Weather Vic Bogong High Plains Weather station at Falls Creek Vic BOM Weather Vic BOM Weather BOM 1950s –continuing automatic Bogong High Plains Weather station at Mt Hotham automatic Tas Liawenee (approx 1060 m) 1984 Weather Tas Miena Dam (1035m nr Liawenee ) 1889 BOM Weather Tas Shannon (939m) 1927-1985 BOM Weather Tas Mt Wellington (1260m) 1961 BOM Weather Tas Hartz Forestry Tasmania (830m) 1996 Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 BOM Weather Tas Tim Shea 1954-1990 BOM Weather Tas Lake Augusta (1100m) 1971- Pascal Vegetation/ NSW Kosciuszko & Long-term vegetation change, succession, Monitoring began Scherrer Ecology restoration & climatic influences. in 1959. Last Gungartan Dane surveyed 2002. Wimbush Alec Costin Pascal Vegetation NSW Kosciuszko alpine zone Assessment of restoration success by comparison Scherrer & Soils of former track & natural vegetation 15 yrs after Catherine closure on permanent quadrats. Pickering Pascal Long-term NSW Kosciuszko alpine zone Monitoring vegetation changes in the alpine zone Scherrer vegetation of Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia. monitoring Evaluating current & historic data for monitoring outcomes. PhD Thesis. Ken Green Ken Green Zoology NSW Disappointment Spur Snow & ice NSW Blue Lake Bird migration in relation to snow cover and 2000-present- flowering continuing Ice breakup date and ice thickness historical-presentcontinuing Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Ken Green Snow & ice NSW Whites River Weekly snow course measurement 1954-presentcontinuing Ken Green Vegetation NSW Mt. Clarke GLORIA 2002 onwards Ken Green Climate NSW South Ramshead Treeline ambient temperatures 2002 onwards Ken Green Climate NSW Snowy Mountains Subnivean temperatures in variety of sites 1981-presentcontinuing Southern Snow Vic Rocky Valley Weekly snow course measurement Hydro 1935-1946 1954-1956 1957-1971 1974-present SMA Snow NSW Snowy Mountains Snow course measurements at three sites weekly. 1954-present- Ten additional snowcourses done monthly continuing 1959- continuing SMA Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Weather station at Tooma Dam (1220 m), SMA Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Weather station at Guthega Power Station (1340 m) 1953- continuing SMA Weather NSW Snowy Mountains Jagungal Pluviograph 1670m 1958- continuing Jennie Botany Tas Growth of Sphagnum moss beds 1996-present Changes in extent and health of Sphagnum moss 2001-present Whinam Jennie Central Highlands, Cradle Mtn, Mt Field Botany NSW Snowy Mountains, Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Whinam New England, ACT beds (some 1954 data) Changes in extent and health of Sphagnum moss 2001-present beds (some 1954 data) highlands Jennie Botany Vic Bogong High Plains Whinam Jamie Plant Kirkpatrick Tas Mt Field, Mt Reid, Mt Permanent plots over fire boundaries, in snow Mostly established Ecology + Wellington, Hill One, patches, in fjaeldmark and in vegetation protected in early 1980s K. Bridle Soils Central Plateau from grazing Jenny Scott Plant Macquarie Island and Permanent plots on coastal slopes of Macquarie Jamie Ecology Heard Island and in various places on Heard Mt Nelse Monitoring snowpatch vegetation - compositional Tas Early 1980s Kirkpatrick John Morgan Botany Vic changes/shifts over time, phenology, competitive inetractions John Morgan Botany Vic Mt Hotham area Sera Cutler Monitoring alpine treeline shifts (observational and experimental work), soil and ambient temperatures at treeline, seasonal nitrogen fluxes across treeline John Morgan Botany Vic Mt Hotham area GLORIA Lynise Vic Bogong High Plains Monitoring spread of weeds in relation to Botany Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Wearne, Paul altitudinal gradients McMorran, John Morgan Will Osborne, Zoology NSW Snowy Mountains Monitoring Corroboree Frogs and bog condition 1986 continuing Dave Hunter, Ken Green Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Suggested Monitoring Name Discipline State Location Description Ken Green Zoology NSW Snowy Mountains Monitoring of invertebrates – numbers and altitudinal distribution Jennie Whinam Botany Tas Nicki Chilcott Central Highlands, Monitor changes in the growth rates, condition Cradle Mtn, Mt and extent of Sphagnum moss beds Field Jennie Whinam Botany NSW Snowy Mtns, New Monitor changes in the growth rates, condition Geoff Hope England, ACT and extent of Sphagnum moss beds. Some early Nicki Chilcott highlands data exists for the Snowy Mountains and New England highlands. Jennie Whinam Botany Vic John Morgan Buffalo, Buller, Monitor changes in the growth rates, condition Baw Baw and extent of Sphagnum moss beds. Nicki Chilcott Jamie Kirkpatrick, Vegetation and Soils, Tas Mt Field, Mt Reid, Monitor changes in species cover, bare ground Mt Wellington, Hill cover and surface soil characteristics Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 One, Central Plateau, Jenny Scott Jamie Vegetation Kirkpatrick Subantar Macquarie Island Monitor changes in species cover, bare ground ctic and Heard Island cover and surface soil characteristics Bogong High Monitoring phenological shifts in major plant Plains communities islands John Morgan Botany Vic Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Attached is an extract from Peter Coynes (2000) - Protecting the Natural Treasures of the Australian Alps database section of threats relating to climate change. A 2oC increase in the last 10,000 years would have raised the treeline sufficiently to push the Green et al 1992 subalpine zone above Mt Kosciusko. Cold microclimates (SE aspects, cold air drainage) would have acted as refuges. Need to identify such refuges and guarante As little as a 1oC increase in temperature and predicted accompanying rainfall changes would Green et al 1992 eliminate the bioclimatic range of the mountain pygmy-possum. A 3oC rise, predicted for the next 100 years, would raise the snowline level above the highest Green et al 1992 peaks in the Alps. Generally, the detrimental impacts of declining snow falls and the length and extent of snow cover Good 1998a should not be as great as has been expressed in many forums and publications It can be predicted that several communities, such as tall alpine herbfield, windswept feldmark and Good 1998a sod tussock grasslands may extend their distribution and area of occurrence, albeit at the expense of the smaller and more climatically sensitive communities. There are likely to be changes to plant populations and some species may be endangered by a shift Wardlaw 1998 in the depth and duration of snow cover. There is the distinct possibility that the loss of the snow blanket would subject plants to more Wardlaw 1998 extreme temperature conditions at critical stages of development and increase the water loss Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 associated with cold dry winds. Best case scenario: 2030 - temperature increase 0.3oC, Precipitation unchanged; 2070 - Whetton 1998a temperature increase 0.6oC, precipitation unchanged; worst case: 2030 - temperature increase 1.3oC, precipitation decreases 8%; 2070 - temperature increase 3.4oC, precipitation decreases 20%. CSIRO's latest scenarios of regional climate change are likely to be associated with significant, Whetton 1998a and possibly rather severe, reductions in natural snow-cover in the Australian Alps. Such changes would affect alpine ecosystems, hydrology and water resources. The high country and alpine areas along the Great Dividing Range have been identified as Brereton 1998 significant refugia at a sub continental level under various greenhouse scenarios. However the climatic envelopes of alpine species disappear, suggesting potential extinction of species and a landscape we now recognise as alpine. Examination of the potential distribution of species at lower altitudes suggest that the biota of these landscapes will "march up hill". Simulated impacts of climate change on snow cover in the Australian Alps - best case scenario: Whetton 1998b area with simulated cover >30 days declines by 18% by 2030 and 39% by 2070; worst case scenario: 66% reduction by 2030 and 96% reduction by 2070. Expected effects in the Australian alps - Roger Good Good 1998b The term ‘Global warming’ or the ‘Greenhouse effect’ arise from concerns that the natural Baker et al 2000 greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth’s surface at a temperature suitable for life is being exacerbated by increasing levels of greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere from Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 human activities Although there are major uncertainties concerning a process as complex as global warming, the Baker et al 2000 general consensus of the scientific community is that global warming is occurring. 99% of scientists agree; global warming is real, it's happening now, and it's getting worse. WWF web site Analysis of tree rings, corals, ice cores, and lake sediments showed the 20th century's surface White House Climate temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere to be the warmest since at least 1400 A.D. A newer Change Task Force study of Northern Hemisphere temperatures found it highly likely that the 20th century has been 1999 the warmest century of the millennium; the 1990s have been the warmest decade; and 1998 has been the warmest year. A study of temperature data from 600-1,800-foot deep boreholes in North America, Europe, Africa, and Australia found that the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (F) over the last five centuries, and that half of this total warming occurred in this century. Of the 120 to 140 years for which thermometer records are sufficiently complete to define a global average temperature, the 11 warmest years have all occurred since 1983. The three warmest years on record were 1998, 1997, and 1995, in that order. In addition, 1998 was also 1.2 degrees F above the long-term average tem The globally averaged temperature of the air at the Earth's surface has warmed between 0.3 and World Meteorological 0.6°C (about 0.5 and 1°F) since the late nineteenth century. Data derived from measurements of Organization 2000 tree rings, shallow ice cores, and corals, and from other methods of indirectly determining climate trends, suggest that global surface temperatures are now as warm as or warmer than at any time in Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 the past 600 years. Climate change has the potential to alter many of the Earth's natural ecosystems over the next World Meteorological century. Yet, climate change is not a new influence on the biosphere, so why can't ecosystems just Organization 2000 adapt without significant effects on their form or productivity? There are three basic reasons. 1. First, the rate of global climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000 years. 2. Second, humans have altered the structure of many of the world's ecosystems. They have cut down forests, plowed soils, used rangelands to graze their domesticated animals, introduced non-native species to many regions, intensively fished lakes, rivers and oceans, and constructed dams. These relatively recent changes in the structure of the world's ecosystems have made them less resilient to further changes. 3. Third, pollution, as well as other indirect effects of the utilization of natural resources, has also increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Consequently, it is like During the 20th century, the global climate warmed by about 0.5o C or about 0.05o C per decade. DEGS, MMU 2000b Computer models which simulate the effects on climate of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations project that global average surface temperatures will rise by a further 2o C by the end of the 21st century, or 0.2o C per decade. It is currently believed that most ecosystems can withstand at most a 0.1o C global temperature change per decade, before experiencing severe ecological stresses, leading in some cases to species extinction. A warming of 2o C over the next 100 years would shift current climate zones in temperate regions of the world poleward by about Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 300 km, and vertically by 300m. The composition and geographic distribution of unmanaged ecosystems will change as individual species respond to new conditions. If nothing is done to reduce emissions, current climate models predict a global warming of about The Secretariat of the 2o C between 1990 and 2100. This projection takes into account the effects of aerosols and the United Nations delaying effect of the oceans. This oceanic inertia means that the earth's surface and lower Convention on atmosphere would continue to warm by a further 1-2o C even if greenhouse gas concentrations Climate Change stopped rising in 2100. The range of uncertainty in this projection is 1o C to 3.5o C. Even a 1o C 1999b rise would be larger than any century-time-scale trend for the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties about future emissions, climate feedbacks, and the size of the ocean delay all contribute to this uncertainty range. By the end of the 21st century, average world temperatures are likely to be between 0.8°C and Baker et al 2000 4.5°C higher than now. The mid-range estimate for the year 2100 is a warming of 2°C This may not sound like much, but it could change the Earth’s climate as never before. At the peak of the last ice age (18,000 years ago), the temperature was only 4°C colder than it is today, and glaciers covered much of the temperate land in the Northern Hemisphere. Biological diversity - the source of enormous environmental, economic, and cultural value - will The Secretariat of the be threatened by rapid climate change. A warming of 1–3.5o C over the next 100 years would shift United Nations current climate zones poleward by approximately 150–550 km - and vertically by 150–550 m - in Convention on mid-latitude regions. The composition and geographic distribution of unmanaged ecosystems will Climate Change Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 change as individual species respond to new conditions. The projected declines in mountain 1999a glaciers, permafrost, and snow cover will further affect soil stability and hydrological systems (most major river systems start in the mountains). As species and ecosystems are forced to migrate uphill, those whose climatic ranges are already limited to mountain tops may have nowhere to go and become extinct. Under "business as usual" conditions, global average surface temperature is expected to rise by DEGS, MMU 2000a between 2 and 4o C over the next hundred years. Under a "worst-case" scenario global average surface temperature could rise by 6o C by 2100. Significantly, however, these projections are based solely on changes in greenhouse gases; no account has been taken of the cooling influence of stratospheric ozone loss or sulphate aerosols. When the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and man-made aerosol emissions are considered, the global average surface temperature is projected to rise by approximately 0.2o C per decade, or 2o C by 2100. This rate of climate change is still faster than at any time during Earth history. The large-scale climatic effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation have important influences on the Baker et al 2000 climate of south-eastern Australia. Increased levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere could cause El Niño Southern Oscillation events to occur in Eastern Australia more frequently — as often as every three years, instead of the current average of every five years. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 CSIRO Atmospheric Research has produced a fine resolution climate change scenario for New Baker et al 2000 South Wales. This scenario indicates the following for the ACT region by 2050: - temperature: a warming of 0.6°C to 2.5°C in south-central and south-east New South Wales; - number of hot summer days over 35°C (currently the ACT region has up to 10) increases by 5 to 10 days (50 100%); - number of frosty winter days below 0°C (currently Canberra has about 20, and the subalps about 40) decreases by about 10 over the entire ACT region; - number of spring droughts doubles in all regions of New South Wales except the south-east coastal area; and - the present frequency of extremely wet autumns is at least doubled by 2050 in south-central and south-east New South Wales. The most vulnerable ecosystems will include those habitats where the first impacts are likely to DEGS, MMU 2000b occur, where the most serious adverse effects may arise, or where the least adaptive capacity exists. These include tropical and boreal forests, deserts and semi-deserts, low-lying islands, arctic regions, mountain systems, wetlands, peatbogs and coastal marshes, and coral reefs. There is no doubt that the impact of climate change due to the intensifying greenhouse effect could Busby 1990 be substantial. The fossil record shows clearly that major changes in vegetation, flora and fauna have been correlated with climate changes of similar magnitude to those predicted to occur within the next few decades. The presence of snow determines the composition of much of the fauna in the Australian Alps. Green & Osborne Snow plays an important role in protecting some animals from winter cold but limits opportunities 1998 Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 for other animals. Periods of snow cover, both in winter and in summer, are important determinants of the composition of the fauna, and any changes to either the longevity of the snowpack or its depth is likely to change the ecological conditions under which the present fauna has become adapted. Current efforts to study the biological effects of global change have focused on ecological Rodriguez-Trelles, responses, particularly shifts in species ranges. Mostly ignored are microevolutionary changes. Rodriguez and Genetic changes may be at least as important as ecological ones in determining species' responses. Scheiner 1998 In addition, such changes may be a sensitive indicator of global changes that will provide different information than that provided by range shifts. Studies of Drosophila subobscura suggest that its chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are responding to global warming. Climate change will affect natural ecosystems within conservation reserves in the ACT region. Baker et al 2000 Most past climate changes occurred slowly, allowing plants and animals to adapt to the new environment or move somewhere else. However, if future climate changes occur as rapidly as predicted, species and ecosystems may in some cases fail to adapt, placing further selection pressure on species which are already struggling to cope with habitat fragmentation. Weed problems in many ecosystems may increase as weed species are highly adaptable and can rapidly exploit disturbed areas under environmental stress. Pest infestations may also increase, for example, through extensions to the ranges of pests now confined to warmer northern regions. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Snow acts as an insulating blanket, protecting the plants and animals living underneath. For Green 1998 example, at a site in the Snowy Mountains observed by Green in July 1986 with full snow cover of 66 cm average depth, the ambient temperatures varied between -10oC and +3oC but the temperature below the snow varied only between 0 and -3oC, remaining remarkably steady at just below -2oC. Many alpine plants have adapted to periods of snow cover and are competitive with other species Wardlaw 1998 under these conditions. Shortening the duration of this cover, due to the warming of the environment, could have wide ranging effects on the distribution and possibly survival of these plants. A longer growing season would be expected to favour growth, but this might also allow other species to become more competitive. There are likely to be changes to plant populations and some species may be endangered by a shift in the depth and duration of snow cover. There is the distinct possibility that the loss of the snow blanket would subject plants to more extreme temperature conditions at critical stages of development and increase the water loss associated with cold dry winds. Predicted changes in climate may adversely affect as much as 47% of the 190 plant taxa present in Pickering & the alpine region around Mt. Kosciuszko within the next century. Forty taxa may have their Armstrong 2000a distribution reduced and could be at risk of extinction due to predicted climate change within the next 70 years. A further forty-nine taxa are likely to experience some reduction in distribution. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Under the best case scenario for climate change, Pickering & Armstrong (2000a) consider that Pickering & about 15 plant taxa could be at risk of extinction: Abrotanella nivigena, Brachycome tadgelii, Armstrong 2000a Chionohebe densifoia, Colobanthus nivicola, C. pulvinatus, Coprosma niphophila, Deyeuxia affinis, Erigeron setosus, Plantago glacialis, Ranunculus brevicaulis, R. niphophilus, Rytidospermum pumilum, R. australis, Luzula acutifolia ssp. nana and Schoenus calyptratus. The last three are not listed elsewhere in this database. But not all alpine species are likely to be negatively affected by climate change. Some species, particularly those that are able to colonise disturbed areas, are likely to increase in abundance and distribution. Pickering and Armstrong (2000b) have also examined the likely effects of climate change on Pickering and alpine plant communities. Some communities could benefit while others decline. They conclude Armstrong 2000b that short alpine herbfield and snow bank feldmark communities are likely to be adversely affected by climate change if large snow banks become less common with declining snow cover. Feldmark, however, may become more widespread if snow cover declines, exposing further areas to freezing temperatures and strong winds. Climate change may initially have a beneficial or neutral effect on the tall alpine herbfield, but if snow cover continues to decline as predicted the tall alpine herbfield would eventually decline. Bogs, fens, raised bog and valley bog communities are likely to vary in area as changes in precipitation, runoff, and evaporation alter the competitive ability of plant species belonging to these communities. Heath communities are likely to increase in area as increasing temperatures and declining snow cover favour Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002 Increasing diversity and abundance of alien species within the alpine zone is likely to continue and Pickering and may be amplified by climate change. Armstrong 2000b Scenarios for climate patterns in New Zealand for AD 2030 suggest significant changes from Given & Morrison those prevailing now. In some respects they may be similar to patterns occurring 7-9000 years 1998 ago. Lack of snow cover may have long term implications for R anemoneus. Observations during Rath 1999 Rath's three year study indicated that the shorter the period of snow cover the less recruitment of flowers the following year. The Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre data showed that Australia's mean annual Sydney Morning temperature rose 0.8 degrees between 1910 and 1999, to 28.43 degrees. The National Climate Herald 6/1/00 Centre calculated mean temperatures using data from about 130 non-urban observing stations. It found that the three hottest decades last century were the 1990s, 1980s and 1970s, with mean temperatures ranging from 28.1 to 28.43 degrees. It was also revealed that five years in the last decade - 1998, 1996, 1993, 1991 and 1990 - were among the 10 warmest years on record, with 1998 the hottest at 28.84 degrees. Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002