Download Monitoring - Australian Institute of Alpine Studies

Towards a coherent framework of research on potential effects of climate change
on Australian alpine zones.
A report by the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies compiled and edited by
Ken Green
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified a number of potential
impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems in Australia. The alpine
regions of Australia are considered by the IPCC to be highly vulnerable to climate
change. The Australian Greenhouse Office is developing a work plan dealing with
climate change impacts and adaptation which, among other actions, identifies setting
priorities for research and assessments of climate change impacts. Following a
meeting at the offices of Environment Australia in May 2002, the Australian Institute
of Alpine Studies was asked (24 May 2002) to assist the Australian Greenhouse
Office in compiling a database of existing research in alpine regions dealing with
climate change or where climate change is seen as a threatening action. The
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, formed in February1998 is an umbrella
organisation for alpine and mountain researchers of all disciplines throughout
Australia. The institute has no permanent geographic location but has a cyber
secretariat. The rapid communication among researches engendered by electronic
communication enabled a rapid process of compiling a list of known publications,
relevant long term data sets or studies and proposed or desirable studies.
Again, the ability to communicate rapidly, together with the enthusiasm of members
allowed an iterative process that led to the production of this report in just over three
weeks. It may have some drawbacks, for example not all publications could be
checked for their relevance, and the dates and locations of other studies could not be
checked in the short time available. However, what is presented here is the first
attempt to compile these data in one report, and as such this presents a useful resource
for those interested in climate change and greenhouse warming in Australia. Members
of the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies who responded so quickly are thanked for
their efforts.
The report consists of four sections.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
1. Publications dealing with climate change or where climate change is seen as a
threatening action.
2. A table of existing monitoring sites and programs
3. A table of suggested monitoring sites and programs
4. An extract from Peter Coyne (2000) - Protecting the Natural Treasures of the
Australian Alps database section of threats relating to climate change.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Publications dealing with climate change or where climate change is seen as a
threatening action.
Contact details of authors belonging to the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies
can be obtained from our website at : aias.org.au
Note: due to time constraints and multiple submissions (each person with their
own weird formatting styles) formatting is not necessarily consistent.
Beaumont L. and Hughes L. (in press) Potential changes in the distributions of
latitudinally restricted Australian butterflies in response to climate change.
Global Change Biology
Brereton R., Bennett S. and Mansergh I. 1995. Enhanced greenhouse climate change
and its potential effect on selected fauna of south-eastern Australia: a trend
analysis. Biol. Conserv. 72, 339-54.
Bennett, S., Brereton, R., Mansergh, I., Berwick, S., Sandiford, K. and Wellington, C.
1991. The Potential Effect of the Enhanced Greenhouse Climate Change on
Selected Victorian Fauna. Technical Report Series no. 123. Arthur Rylah
Institute, Victoria.
Bridle, K. and Kirkpatrick, J.B., 1997. Local environmental correlates of variability in
the organic soils of moorland and alpine vegetation, Mt Sprent, Tasmania.
Aust. J. Ecol., 22, 196-205.
Bridle, K.L. and Kirkpatrick, J.B. 1998. Why do tall herbs rarely dominate Tasmanian
alpine vegetation? Evidence from islands in the Ouse River system. Pap. Proc.
R. Soc. Tasm. 132, 9-14.
Bridle, K.L. and Kirkpatrick, J.B., 1999. The comparative effects of stock and wild
vertebrate grazing on treeless subalpine vegetation, eastern Central Plateau,
Tasmania. Aust. J. Bot. 47, 817-834.
Bridle, K.L. and Kirkpatrick, J.B. 2001. Impacts of grazing by vertebrate herbivores
on the flower stem production of tall alpine herbs, Eastern Central Plateau,
Tasmania. Australian Journal of Botany 49, 459-470.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Bridle, K.L., Kirkpatrick, J.B., Cullen, P. and Shepherd, R.R. 2001. Recovery in
alpine heath and grassland following burning and grazing, eastern Central
Plateau, Tasmania. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, 33, 348-356.
Brown, J. A. H. and Millner, F. C. 1989. Aspects of the meteorology and hydrology
of the Australian Alps. Pp. 297-332 in “The Scientific Significance of the
Australian Alps: The Proceedings of the First Fenner Conference” ed. by R. B.
Good. The Australian Alps National Parks Liaison Committee/Australian
Academy of Science.
Budin, R. 1985. Interannual variability of Australian snowfall. Aust. Met. Mag. 33,
145-159.
Busby, J.R. 1988. Potential impacts of climate change on Australia's flora and fauna.
Pp. 387-398 in “Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change” ed by G.I.
Pearman. CSIRO/Brill, Melbourne.
Chiew F. H. S.and McMahon T. A. 2002. Modelling the impacts of climate change on
Australian streamflow. Hydrol. Processes 16,1235-45.
CIG, 1992. “Climate Change Scenarios for the Australian Region”. Climate Impact
Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, 6pp.
CIG, 1996. “Climate Change Scenarios for the Australian Region”. Climate Impact
Group, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, 8 pp.
Clarke P. J. and Martin A. R. H. 1999. Sphagnum peatlands of Kosciuszko National
Park in relation to altitude, time and disturbance. Aust. J. Bot. 47, 519-36.
Clemann, N. 2002. A herpetofauna survey of the Victorian alpine region, with a
review of threats to these species. Victorian Naturalist119, 48-58.
Clemann, N. (in press). Notes on the threatened endemic Victorian Alpine Bog Skink
Pseudemoia cryodroma Hutchinson and Donnellan 1992 (Scincidae:
Lygosominae): a range extension, habitat preferences and identification
difficulties. Herpetofauna
Colquhoun J. R. 1978. Snowfall on the New South Wales Snowy Mountains. Tech.
Rep. 25 Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Costin, A. B., Gay, L. W., Wimbush, D. J. and Kerr, D. 1961. Studies in catchment
hydrology in the Australian Alps. III. Preliminary snow investigations.
C.S.I.R.O., Division of Plant Industry Technical Paper No. 15. 31pp.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Costin, A. B., Jennings, J. N., Black, H. P. and Thom, B. A. 1964. Snow action on
Mount Twynam, Snowy Mountains, Australia. J. Glaciology 5, 219-228.
Costin, A. B., Jennings, J. N., Bautovich, B. C. and Wimbush, D. J. 1973. Forces
developed by snowpatch action, Mt Twynam, Snowy Mountains, Australia.
Arct. Alp. Res. 5, 121-26.
Davis, C.W. 1998 Meteorological aspects of snow. Pp 3-34 in Snow: A Natural
History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison
Committee Canberra.
Duus, A. L. 1992. Estimation and analysis of snow cover in the Snowy Mountains
between 1910 and 1991. Aust. Met. Mag. 40, 195-204.
Galloway, R.W. 1988. The potential impact of climate changes on Australian ski
fields. Pp. 428-37 in “Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change” ed by G.I.
Pearman. CSIRO/Brill, Melbourne.
Galloway, R.W., Kiernan, K. and Peterson, J. A. 1998. Effects of snow on the
landscape Pp 69-80 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by
K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Good, R.B.1998. The impacts of changing snow regimes on the distribution of alpine
vegetation. . Pp 98-112 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed
by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Green K. 1997. Inter-annual, seasonal and altitudinal differences in invertebrate
activity in the Snowy Mountains. Victorian Naturalist 114, 222-229.
Green, K. (ed.), (1998) Snow: A Natural History; An Uncertain Future. Australian
Alps Liaison Committee, Canberra.
Green K. 1998. A winter niche: the subnivean space. Pp 125-140 in Snow: A Natural
History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison
Committee Canberra.
Green K., Mansergh, I.M. and Osborne, W.S. 1992. The fauna of the Australian Alps:
conservation and management. Review Géographie Alpine 2&3 381-407.
Green, K. and Osborne, W. S. 1994. “Ecology of Snow”, Pp. 16-29 in “Wildlife of the
Australian Snow Country.” Reed Books, Chatswood NSW.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Green, K. and Osborne, W. S. 1998. Snow as a selecting force on the alpine fauna. Pp
141-164 . in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green
Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Green, K. and Pickering, C. M. 2002. A scenario for mammal and bird diversity in the
Australian Snowy Mountains in relation to climate change. pp241-249 in: C.
Koerner and E.M. Spehn (eds) Mountain Biodiversity: a Global Assessment.
Parthenon Publishing, London.
Haylock, M. R., Whetton, P. H. and Desborough, C. 1994. Climate Change and Snow
Cover Duration in the Victorian Alps. EPAV Publication No 403 EPAV,
Melbourne.
Hewitt, S.D. 1994. The impact of enhanced-greenhouse conditions on the Australian
snow-pack in proceedings of Symposium on Snow and Climate, Geneva, 2223 Sept. 1994, Department of Geography, University of Geneva.
Hewitt, S. 1997. An impact analysis of an enhanced greenhouse climate change on the
Australian alpine snow pack. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Melbourne,
Australia.
Lesley Hughes (in prep.) Climate change and Australia: trends, scenarios and impacts
Jennings, J. N. and Costin, A. B. 1978. Stone movement through snow creep, 19631975, Mount Twynam, Snowy Mountains, Australia. Earth Surface Processes
3, 3-22.
Keage, P. 1990. Skiing into the Greenhouse. Trees and Natural Resources 2, 15-18.
Kirkpatrick, J.B. 2002. Factors influencing the spatial restriction of vascular plant
species in the alpine archipelagoes of Australia. In C. Körner & E.M. Spehn
(eds.): Mountain Biodiversity: a global assessment. Parthenon Publishing,
London, in press.
Kirkpatrick, J.B., Bridle, K. and Lynch, A.J.J. in submission. Changes in vegetation
and geomorphological features in alpine vegetation on Hill One, Tasmania,
1985-2001.
Kirkpatrick, J.B., Bridle, K. and Wild, A. 2002. Succession after fire in alpine
vegetation on Mount Wellington, Tasmania. Australian Journal of Botany 50,
145–154.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Fowler, M. 1998. Locating likely glacial refugia in Tasmania
using palynological and ecological information to test alternative climatic
models. Biological Conservation, 85, 171-182.
Kirkpatrick, J.B., Nunez, M., Bridle, K. and Chladil, M. 1996. Explaining a sharp
transition from sedgeland to alpine vegetation on Mount Sprent, south-west
Tasmania. J. Veg. Sci. 7, 763-768.
Kirkpatrick, J.B. and Scott, J.J. 2002. Change in undisturbed vegetation on the
Macquarie Island coastal slopes. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, 34, in
press.
Kirkpatrick, J.B, Bridle, K.L, and Lynch, A.J.J. (submitted) Changes in alpine
vegetation related to geomorphological processes and climatic change on Hill
One, Southern Range, Tasmania, 1989-2000. Australian Journal of Botany
König, U. 1998 Climate change and the Australian ski industry . Pp 207-223 in Snow:
A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps
Liaison Committee Canberra.
König, U., 1997 (in press). Tourism in a warmer world: Implications of climate
change due to an enhanced greenhouse effect for the Australian ski industry.
CRES Working Paper Series, Australian National University, Canberra,
Australia.
König, U., submitted. Climate change and tourism: market research in the Australian
Alps. Australian Journal of Leisure.
Krockenberger, M and Kinkade, P. 1997. The Impacts of Global Warming. Habitat
Vol. 25 No. 4. pp 13-20. ACF. August 1997.
Lawrence, R.E. 1999. Vegetation changes on the Bogong High Plains from the 1850s
to 1950s. Proceedings & Transactions of the Royal Society of Victoria, 111,
29-52
Lawrence, R.E. 1998. Historical ramifications of climate change in the Alpine
National Park. In: Celebrating the parks: a symposium on parks history:
proceedings. Ed: E. Hamilton-Smith. Mt Buffalo Chalet, Victoria, 16 to 19
April 1998: 83-92 Rethink Consulting P/L
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Marchant, H. J. 1998. Life in the snow: algae and other microorganisms. . Pp 83-97 in
Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by K. Green Australian
Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Osborne, W. and Davis, M. 1997. Long-term variability in temperature, precipitation,
and snow cover in the Snowy Mountains: is there a link with the decline of the
Southern Corroboree Frog (Pseudophryne corroboree)? Report to the NSW
National Parks and Wildlife Service, Kosciusko Region Heritage Unit,
Jindabyne.
Osborne, W. S., Davis, M.S. and Green, K. 1998. Temporal and spatial variation in
snow cover. Pp 56-68 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by
K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Pickering, C.M. and Armstrong, T. 2000. Climate Change and the Plant Communities
of the Kosciuszko Alpine Zone in the Australian Alps. Mountain Tourism
Research Report No. 1. Joint publication of the Cooperative Research Centre
for Sustainable Tourism and the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies. p 23.
Pickering, C.M. and Armstrong, T. (Under Review) Potential impact of predicted
climate change on plant communities in the Kosciuszko alpine zone. Victorian
Naturalist
Ruddell, A. R., Budd, W. F., Smith, I. N., Keage, P. L. and Jones, R. 1990. The South
East Australian Alpine Climate Study. Report by University of Melbourne for
the Alpine Resorts Commission
Smith, M.J., Osborne, W.S. and Hollis, G.J. 1998. Long-term variability in
precipitation and temperature on the Baw Baw plateau: is there a link with the
decline of the endemic Baw Baw Frog? Report to the Victorian Department of
Natural Resources and Environment, Warragul.
Scherrer, P. and Pickering, C. 2001. Effects of grazing, tourism and climate change on
the alpine vegetation of Kosciuszko National Park. Victorian Naturalist 118,
93-99.
Scherrer, P. and Pickering C. M. ms. Restoration of alpine herbfield vegetation on a
closed walking track in the Snowy Mountains, Australia. Submitted to
Restoration Ecology. Restoration Ecology. (in rev.).
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Schreider, S.Yu., Whetton, P.H., Jakeman, A.J. and Pittock, A.B. (In press) Runoff
modelling for snow-affected catchments in the Australian Alpine region,
eastern Victoria. Journal of Hydrology.
Scott, J.J. and Kirkpatrick, J.B. (In press) Changes in undisturbed vegetation on the
coastal slopes of Macquarie Island, 1980-1995. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine
Research.
Slatyer, R. O., Cochrane, P. M. and Galloway, R. W. 1985. Duration and extent of
snow cover in the Snowy Mountains. Search 15, 11-12.
Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Authority 1993. Snowy Precipitation Enhancement
Project: A proposal to Evaluate the Feasibility of increasing Snow
Precipitation over the Snowy Mountains Area. Draft Environmental Impact
Statement. SMHEA, Cooma.
Walter, A.M.J. and Broome, L.S. 1998. Snow as a factor in animal hibernation and
dormancy. Pp165-191 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain Future’ ed by
K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Wearne L. J., Morgan J. W. 2001. Recent forest encroachment into subalpine
grasslands near Mount Hotham, Victoria, Australia. Arctic Antarctic Alpine
Res. 33, 369-77.
Whetton P.H., Haylock M.R., and Galloway, R.W. 1996. Climate change and snowcover duration in the Australian Alps. Climatic Change, 32, 447-479.
Whetton P.H.1998. Climate change impacts on the spatial extent of snow cover in the
Australian Alps . Pp 195-206 in Snow: A Natural History; an Uncertain
Future’ ed by K. Green Australian Alps Liaison Committee Canberra.
Whetton, P.H., Fowler, A.M., Haylock, M.R. and Pittock, A.B. 1993. Implications of
climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts
in Australia. Climatic Change, 25, 289-317.
Whetton , P.H., Hennessy, K.J., Wu, X., McGregor, J.L., Katzfey, J.J., and Nguyen,
K. (In press.) Fine Resolution Assessment of Enhanced Greenhouse Climate
Change in Victoria: Part 2, Consultancy report by CSIRO for the Victorian
Department of Natural Resources and Environment.
Whetton , P.H., Katzfey, J.J., Nguyen, K., McGregor, J.L., Page, C.M. Elliott, T.I. and
Hennessy, K.J. (In press) Fine Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for New
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
South Wales, Part 2: Climatic Variability, Consultancy report by CSIRO for
the New South Wales Environment Protection Authority.
Whinam, J. and Chilcott, N. (In press) Floristic description and environmental
relationships of Sphagnum communities in NSW and the ACT and their
conservation management. Cunninghamia
Whinam, J., Barmuta, L.A. and Chilcott, N. 2001. Floristic description and
environmental relationships of Tasmanian Sphagnum communities and their
conservation management. Australian Journal of Botany 49, 673-685.
Whinam, J., Hope, G.S., Clarkson, B.R., Buxton, R., Alspatch, P.A. and Adam, P. (In
press). Sphagnum in peatlands of Australasia: The resource, its utilisation and
management. Wetlands Ecology and Management
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Monitoring
Existing Monitoring
Name
Discipline
State Location
Description
Year
BOM
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Weather station at Kiandra
1887-1995
BOM
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Weather station at Cabramurra
1955- continuing
BOM
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Perisher Valley
1976
BOM
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Thredbo Charlottes Pass (1930)
(Crackenback
1966 Valley
1969),
BOM
Weather
Vic
Bogong High Plains
Weather station at Falls Creek
Vic
BOM
Weather
Vic
BOM
Weather
BOM
1950s –continuing
automatic
Bogong High Plains
Weather station at Mt Hotham
automatic
Tas
Liawenee (approx 1060 m)
1984
Weather
Tas
Miena Dam (1035m nr Liawenee )
1889
BOM
Weather
Tas
Shannon (939m)
1927-1985
BOM
Weather
Tas
Mt Wellington (1260m)
1961
BOM
Weather
Tas
Hartz Forestry Tasmania (830m)
1996
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
BOM
Weather
Tas
Tim Shea
1954-1990
BOM
Weather
Tas
Lake Augusta (1100m)
1971-
Pascal
Vegetation/ NSW Kosciuszko &
Long-term vegetation change, succession,
Monitoring began
Scherrer
Ecology
restoration & climatic influences.
in 1959. Last
Gungartan
Dane
surveyed 2002.
Wimbush
Alec Costin
Pascal
Vegetation NSW Kosciuszko alpine zone Assessment of restoration success by comparison
Scherrer
& Soils
of former track & natural vegetation 15 yrs after
Catherine
closure on permanent quadrats.
Pickering
Pascal
Long-term NSW Kosciuszko alpine zone Monitoring vegetation changes in the alpine zone
Scherrer
vegetation
of Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia.
monitoring
Evaluating current & historic data for monitoring
outcomes. PhD Thesis.
Ken Green
Ken Green
Zoology
NSW Disappointment Spur
Snow & ice NSW Blue Lake
Bird migration in relation to snow cover and
2000-present-
flowering
continuing
Ice breakup date and ice thickness
historical-presentcontinuing
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Ken Green
Snow & ice NSW Whites River
Weekly snow course measurement
1954-presentcontinuing
Ken Green
Vegetation NSW Mt. Clarke
GLORIA
2002 onwards
Ken Green
Climate
NSW South Ramshead
Treeline ambient temperatures
2002 onwards
Ken Green
Climate
NSW Snowy Mountains
Subnivean temperatures in variety of sites
1981-presentcontinuing
Southern
Snow
Vic
Rocky Valley
Weekly snow course measurement
Hydro
1935-1946
1954-1956
1957-1971
1974-present
SMA
Snow
NSW Snowy Mountains
Snow course measurements at three sites weekly.
1954-present-
Ten additional snowcourses done monthly
continuing
1959- continuing
SMA
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Weather station at Tooma Dam (1220 m),
SMA
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Weather station at Guthega Power Station (1340 m) 1953- continuing
SMA
Weather
NSW Snowy Mountains
Jagungal Pluviograph 1670m
1958- continuing
Jennie
Botany
Tas
Growth of Sphagnum moss beds
1996-present
Changes in extent and health of Sphagnum moss
2001-present
Whinam
Jennie
Central Highlands,
Cradle Mtn, Mt Field
Botany
NSW Snowy Mountains,
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Whinam
New England, ACT
beds
(some 1954 data)
Changes in extent and health of Sphagnum moss
2001-present
beds
(some 1954 data)
highlands
Jennie
Botany
Vic
Bogong High Plains
Whinam
Jamie
Plant
Kirkpatrick
Tas
Mt Field, Mt Reid, Mt Permanent plots over fire boundaries, in snow
Mostly established
Ecology +
Wellington, Hill One,
patches, in fjaeldmark and in vegetation protected
in early 1980s
K. Bridle
Soils
Central Plateau
from grazing
Jenny Scott
Plant
Macquarie Island and
Permanent plots on coastal slopes of Macquarie
Jamie
Ecology
Heard Island
and in various places on Heard
Mt Nelse
Monitoring snowpatch vegetation - compositional
Tas
Early 1980s
Kirkpatrick
John Morgan Botany
Vic
changes/shifts over time, phenology, competitive
inetractions
John Morgan Botany
Vic
Mt Hotham area
Sera Cutler
Monitoring alpine treeline shifts (observational and
experimental work), soil and ambient temperatures
at treeline, seasonal nitrogen fluxes across treeline
John Morgan Botany
Vic
Mt Hotham area
GLORIA
Lynise
Vic
Bogong High Plains
Monitoring spread of weeds in relation to
Botany
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Wearne, Paul
altitudinal gradients
McMorran,
John Morgan
Will Osborne, Zoology
NSW Snowy Mountains
Monitoring Corroboree Frogs and bog condition
1986 continuing
Dave Hunter,
Ken Green
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Suggested Monitoring
Name
Discipline
State
Location
Description
Ken Green
Zoology
NSW
Snowy Mountains Monitoring of invertebrates – numbers and
altitudinal distribution
Jennie Whinam
Botany
Tas
Nicki Chilcott
Central Highlands, Monitor changes in the growth rates, condition
Cradle Mtn, Mt
and extent of Sphagnum moss beds
Field
Jennie Whinam
Botany
NSW
Snowy Mtns, New Monitor changes in the growth rates, condition
Geoff Hope
England, ACT
and extent of Sphagnum moss beds. Some early
Nicki Chilcott
highlands
data exists for the Snowy Mountains and New
England highlands.
Jennie Whinam
Botany
Vic
John Morgan
Buffalo, Buller,
Monitor changes in the growth rates, condition
Baw Baw
and extent of Sphagnum moss beds.
Nicki Chilcott
Jamie Kirkpatrick,
Vegetation
and Soils,
Tas
Mt Field, Mt Reid, Monitor changes in species cover, bare ground
Mt Wellington, Hill cover and surface soil characteristics
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
One, Central
Plateau,
Jenny Scott Jamie
Vegetation
Kirkpatrick
Subantar Macquarie Island
Monitor changes in species cover, bare ground
ctic
and Heard Island
cover and surface soil characteristics
Bogong High
Monitoring phenological shifts in major plant
Plains
communities
islands
John Morgan
Botany
Vic
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Attached is an extract from Peter Coynes (2000) - Protecting the Natural Treasures of the Australian Alps database section of threats relating to
climate change.
A 2oC increase in the last 10,000 years would have raised the treeline sufficiently to push the
Green et al 1992
subalpine zone above Mt Kosciusko. Cold microclimates (SE aspects, cold air drainage) would
have acted as refuges. Need to identify such refuges and guarante
As little as a 1oC increase in temperature and predicted accompanying rainfall changes would
Green et al 1992
eliminate the bioclimatic range of the mountain pygmy-possum.
A 3oC rise, predicted for the next 100 years, would raise the snowline level above the highest
Green et al 1992
peaks in the Alps.
Generally, the detrimental impacts of declining snow falls and the length and extent of snow cover Good 1998a
should not be as great as has been expressed in many forums and publications
It can be predicted that several communities, such as tall alpine herbfield, windswept feldmark and Good 1998a
sod tussock grasslands may extend their distribution and area of occurrence, albeit at the expense
of the smaller and more climatically sensitive communities.
There are likely to be changes to plant populations and some species may be endangered by a shift Wardlaw 1998
in the depth and duration of snow cover.
There is the distinct possibility that the loss of the snow blanket would subject plants to more
Wardlaw 1998
extreme temperature conditions at critical stages of development and increase the water loss
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
associated with cold dry winds.
Best case scenario: 2030 - temperature increase 0.3oC, Precipitation unchanged; 2070 -
Whetton 1998a
temperature increase 0.6oC, precipitation unchanged; worst case: 2030 - temperature increase
1.3oC, precipitation decreases 8%; 2070 - temperature increase 3.4oC, precipitation decreases 20%.
CSIRO's latest scenarios of regional climate change are likely to be associated with significant,
Whetton 1998a
and possibly rather severe, reductions in natural snow-cover in the Australian Alps. Such changes
would affect alpine ecosystems, hydrology and water resources.
The high country and alpine areas along the Great Dividing Range have been identified as
Brereton 1998
significant refugia at a sub continental level under various greenhouse scenarios. However the
climatic envelopes of alpine species disappear, suggesting potential extinction of species and a
landscape we now recognise as alpine. Examination of the potential distribution of species at
lower altitudes suggest that the biota of these landscapes will "march up hill".
Simulated impacts of climate change on snow cover in the Australian Alps - best case scenario:
Whetton 1998b
area with simulated cover >30 days declines by 18% by 2030 and 39% by 2070; worst case
scenario: 66% reduction by 2030 and 96% reduction by 2070.
Expected effects in the Australian alps - Roger Good
Good 1998b
The term ‘Global warming’ or the ‘Greenhouse effect’ arise from concerns that the natural
Baker et al 2000
greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth’s surface at a temperature suitable for life is being
exacerbated by increasing levels of greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere from
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
human activities
Although there are major uncertainties concerning a process as complex as global warming, the
Baker et al 2000
general consensus of the scientific community is that global warming is occurring.
99% of scientists agree; global warming is real, it's happening now, and it's getting worse.
WWF web site
Analysis of tree rings, corals, ice cores, and lake sediments showed the 20th century's surface
White House Climate
temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere to be the warmest since at least 1400 A.D. A newer
Change Task Force
study of Northern Hemisphere temperatures found it highly likely that the 20th century has been
1999
the warmest century of the millennium; the 1990s have been the warmest decade; and 1998 has
been the warmest year. A study of temperature data from 600-1,800-foot deep boreholes in North
America, Europe, Africa, and Australia found that the Earth's average surface temperature has
increased by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (F) over the last five centuries, and that half of this total
warming occurred in this century. Of the 120 to 140 years for which thermometer records are
sufficiently complete to define a global average temperature, the 11 warmest years have all
occurred since 1983. The three warmest years on record were 1998, 1997, and 1995, in that order.
In addition, 1998 was also 1.2 degrees F above the long-term average tem
The globally averaged temperature of the air at the Earth's surface has warmed between 0.3 and
World Meteorological
0.6°C (about 0.5 and 1°F) since the late nineteenth century. Data derived from measurements of
Organization 2000
tree rings, shallow ice cores, and corals, and from other methods of indirectly determining climate
trends, suggest that global surface temperatures are now as warm as or warmer than at any time in
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
the past 600 years.
Climate change has the potential to alter many of the Earth's natural ecosystems over the next
World Meteorological
century. Yet, climate change is not a new influence on the biosphere, so why can't ecosystems just Organization 2000
adapt without significant effects on their form or productivity? There are three basic reasons. 1.
First, the rate of global climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in
the last 10,000 years. 2. Second, humans have altered the structure of many of the world's
ecosystems. They have cut down forests, plowed soils, used rangelands to graze their domesticated
animals, introduced non-native species to many regions, intensively fished lakes, rivers and
oceans, and constructed dams. These relatively recent changes in the structure of the world's
ecosystems have made them less resilient to further changes. 3. Third, pollution, as well as other
indirect effects of the utilization of natural resources, has also increased since the beginning of the
industrial revolution. Consequently, it is like
During the 20th century, the global climate warmed by about 0.5o C or about 0.05o C per decade.
DEGS, MMU 2000b
Computer models which simulate the effects on climate of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations project that global average surface temperatures will rise by a further 2o C by the
end of the 21st century, or 0.2o C per decade. It is currently believed that most ecosystems can
withstand at most a 0.1o C global temperature change per decade, before experiencing severe
ecological stresses, leading in some cases to species extinction. A warming of 2o C over the next
100 years would shift current climate zones in temperate regions of the world poleward by about
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
300 km, and vertically by 300m. The composition and geographic distribution of unmanaged
ecosystems will change as individual species respond to new conditions.
If nothing is done to reduce emissions, current climate models predict a global warming of about
The Secretariat of the
2o C between 1990 and 2100. This projection takes into account the effects of aerosols and the
United Nations
delaying effect of the oceans. This oceanic inertia means that the earth's surface and lower
Convention on
atmosphere would continue to warm by a further 1-2o C even if greenhouse gas concentrations
Climate Change
stopped rising in 2100. The range of uncertainty in this projection is 1o C to 3.5o C. Even a 1o C
1999b
rise would be larger than any century-time-scale trend for the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties
about future emissions, climate feedbacks, and the size of the ocean delay all contribute to this
uncertainty range.
By the end of the 21st century, average world temperatures are likely to be between 0.8°C and
Baker et al 2000
4.5°C higher than now. The mid-range estimate for the year 2100 is a warming of 2°C This may
not sound like much, but it could change the Earth’s climate as never before. At the peak of the
last ice age (18,000 years ago), the temperature was only 4°C colder than it is today, and glaciers
covered much of the temperate land in the Northern Hemisphere.
Biological diversity - the source of enormous environmental, economic, and cultural value - will
The Secretariat of the
be threatened by rapid climate change. A warming of 1–3.5o C over the next 100 years would shift United Nations
current climate zones poleward by approximately 150–550 km - and vertically by 150–550 m - in Convention on
mid-latitude regions. The composition and geographic distribution of unmanaged ecosystems will Climate Change
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
change as individual species respond to new conditions. The projected declines in mountain
1999a
glaciers, permafrost, and snow cover will further affect soil stability and hydrological systems
(most major river systems start in the mountains). As species and ecosystems are forced to migrate
uphill, those whose climatic ranges are already limited to mountain tops may have nowhere to go
and become extinct.
Under "business as usual" conditions, global average surface temperature is expected to rise by
DEGS, MMU 2000a
between 2 and 4o C over the next hundred years. Under a "worst-case" scenario global average
surface temperature could rise by 6o C by 2100. Significantly, however, these projections are
based solely on changes in greenhouse gases; no account has been taken of the cooling influence
of stratospheric ozone loss or sulphate aerosols. When the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion
and man-made aerosol emissions are considered, the global average surface temperature is
projected to rise by approximately 0.2o C per decade, or 2o C by 2100. This rate of climate change
is still faster than at any time during Earth history.
The large-scale climatic effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation have important influences on the
Baker et al 2000
climate of south-eastern Australia. Increased levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere could
cause El Niño Southern Oscillation events to occur in Eastern Australia more frequently — as
often as every three years, instead of the current average of every five years.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
CSIRO Atmospheric Research has produced a fine resolution climate change scenario for New
Baker et al 2000
South Wales. This scenario indicates the following for the ACT region by 2050: - temperature: a
warming of 0.6°C to 2.5°C in south-central and south-east New South Wales; - number of hot
summer days over 35°C (currently the ACT region has up to 10) increases by 5 to 10 days (50 100%); - number of frosty winter days below 0°C (currently Canberra has about 20, and the subalps about 40) decreases by about 10 over the entire ACT region; - number of spring droughts
doubles in all regions of New South Wales except the south-east coastal area; and - the present
frequency of extremely wet autumns is at least doubled by 2050 in south-central and south-east
New South Wales.
The most vulnerable ecosystems will include those habitats where the first impacts are likely to
DEGS, MMU 2000b
occur, where the most serious adverse effects may arise, or where the least adaptive capacity
exists. These include tropical and boreal forests, deserts and semi-deserts, low-lying islands, arctic
regions, mountain systems, wetlands, peatbogs and coastal marshes, and coral reefs.
There is no doubt that the impact of climate change due to the intensifying greenhouse effect could Busby 1990
be substantial. The fossil record shows clearly that major changes in vegetation, flora and fauna
have been correlated with climate changes of similar magnitude to those predicted to occur within
the next few decades.
The presence of snow determines the composition of much of the fauna in the Australian Alps.
Green & Osborne
Snow plays an important role in protecting some animals from winter cold but limits opportunities 1998
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
for other animals. Periods of snow cover, both in winter and in summer, are important
determinants of the composition of the fauna, and any changes to either the longevity of the
snowpack or its depth is likely to change the ecological conditions under which the present fauna
has become adapted.
Current efforts to study the biological effects of global change have focused on ecological
Rodriguez-Trelles,
responses, particularly shifts in species ranges. Mostly ignored are microevolutionary changes.
Rodriguez and
Genetic changes may be at least as important as ecological ones in determining species' responses. Scheiner 1998
In addition, such changes may be a sensitive indicator of global changes that will provide different
information than that provided by range shifts. Studies of Drosophila subobscura suggest that its
chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are responding to global warming.
Climate change will affect natural ecosystems within conservation reserves in the ACT region.
Baker et al 2000
Most past climate changes occurred slowly, allowing plants and animals to adapt to the new
environment or move somewhere else. However, if future climate changes occur as rapidly as
predicted, species and ecosystems may in some cases fail to adapt, placing further selection
pressure on species which are already struggling to cope with habitat fragmentation. Weed
problems in many ecosystems may increase as weed species are highly adaptable and can rapidly
exploit disturbed areas under environmental stress. Pest infestations may also increase, for
example, through extensions to the ranges of pests now confined to warmer northern regions.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Snow acts as an insulating blanket, protecting the plants and animals living underneath. For
Green 1998
example, at a site in the Snowy Mountains observed by Green in July 1986 with full snow cover of
66 cm average depth, the ambient temperatures varied between -10oC and +3oC but the
temperature below the snow varied only between 0 and -3oC, remaining remarkably steady at just
below -2oC.
Many alpine plants have adapted to periods of snow cover and are competitive with other species
Wardlaw 1998
under these conditions. Shortening the duration of this cover, due to the warming of the
environment, could have wide ranging effects on the distribution and possibly survival of these
plants. A longer growing season would be expected to favour growth, but this might also allow
other species to become more competitive. There are likely to be changes to plant populations and
some species may be endangered by a shift in the depth and duration of snow cover. There is the
distinct possibility that the loss of the snow blanket would subject plants to more extreme
temperature conditions at critical stages of development and increase the water loss associated
with cold dry winds.
Predicted changes in climate may adversely affect as much as 47% of the 190 plant taxa present in Pickering &
the alpine region around Mt. Kosciuszko within the next century. Forty taxa may have their
Armstrong 2000a
distribution reduced and could be at risk of extinction due to predicted climate change within the
next 70 years. A further forty-nine taxa are likely to experience some reduction in distribution.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Under the best case scenario for climate change, Pickering & Armstrong (2000a) consider that
Pickering &
about 15 plant taxa could be at risk of extinction: Abrotanella nivigena, Brachycome tadgelii,
Armstrong 2000a
Chionohebe densifoia, Colobanthus nivicola, C. pulvinatus, Coprosma niphophila, Deyeuxia
affinis, Erigeron setosus, Plantago glacialis, Ranunculus brevicaulis, R. niphophilus,
Rytidospermum pumilum, R. australis, Luzula acutifolia ssp. nana and Schoenus calyptratus. The
last three are not listed elsewhere in this database. But not all alpine species are likely to be
negatively affected by climate change. Some species, particularly those that are able to colonise
disturbed areas, are likely to increase in abundance and distribution.
Pickering and Armstrong (2000b) have also examined the likely effects of climate change on
Pickering and
alpine plant communities. Some communities could benefit while others decline. They conclude
Armstrong 2000b
that short alpine herbfield and snow bank feldmark communities are likely to be adversely affected
by climate change if large snow banks become less common with declining snow cover. Feldmark,
however, may become more widespread if snow cover declines, exposing further areas to freezing
temperatures and strong winds. Climate change may initially have a beneficial or neutral effect on
the tall alpine herbfield, but if snow cover continues to decline as predicted the tall alpine herbfield
would eventually decline. Bogs, fens, raised bog and valley bog communities are likely to vary in
area as changes in precipitation, runoff, and evaporation alter the competitive ability of plant
species belonging to these communities. Heath communities are likely to increase in area as
increasing temperatures and declining snow cover favour
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002
Increasing diversity and abundance of alien species within the alpine zone is likely to continue and Pickering and
may be amplified by climate change.
Armstrong 2000b
Scenarios for climate patterns in New Zealand for AD 2030 suggest significant changes from
Given & Morrison
those prevailing now. In some respects they may be similar to patterns occurring 7-9000 years
1998
ago.
Lack of snow cover may have long term implications for R anemoneus. Observations during
Rath 1999
Rath's three year study indicated that the shorter the period of snow cover the less recruitment of
flowers the following year.
The Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre data showed that Australia's mean annual
Sydney Morning
temperature rose 0.8 degrees between 1910 and 1999, to 28.43 degrees. The National Climate
Herald 6/1/00
Centre calculated mean temperatures using data from about 130 non-urban observing stations. It
found that the three hottest decades last century were the 1990s, 1980s and 1970s, with mean
temperatures ranging from 28.1 to 28.43 degrees. It was also revealed that five years in the last
decade - 1998, 1996, 1993, 1991 and 1990 - were among the 10 warmest years on record, with
1998 the hottest at 28.84 degrees.
Australian Institute of Alpine Studies, July 2002