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Explaining Ocean Warming:
Causes, scale, effects and consequences
Edited by D. Laffoley and J. M. Baxter
September 2016
IUCN GLOBAL MARINE AND POLAR PROGRAMME
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Citation:
Laffoley, D. & Baxter, J. M. (editors). 2016. Explaining ocean warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences.
Full report. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. 456 pp.
Individual chapters within this report should be referenced as:
Author(s). 2016. Title of chapter. In: Laffoley, D., & Baxter, J.M. (editors). 2016. Explaining ocean warming:
Causes, scale, effects and consequences. Full report. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. pp. xxx.
ISBN:
978-2-8317-1806-4
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2016.08.en
Cover photos:
Clockwise from top: King penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) on Middle Beach (Brothers Point in distance),
Macquarie Island, Southern Ocean. (© Robbie Kilpatrick/Australian Antarctic Division, November 2015, Image
RS31770,Image Antarctica); a colony of black coral with small crabs moving amongst the branches (image
courtesy of Department of BIS, UK); seagrass (Zostera marina) © SNH/Ben James; Hurricane Catarina on
March 26th, 2004, off SE Brazil. Image courtesy of NASA.
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The cascading
effects of climate
-related changes
in the ocean
2
A.K. Magnana, J.-P. Gattusob,a
a
b
Institute for sustainable development and international relations, Sciences Po, France
Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS-INSU, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche-sur-mer, France
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change by absorbing significant parts of the heat and CO2 that
accumulate in the atmosphere. The ocean also receives all water from melting ice.
This regulating function happens at the cost of profound alterations of the ocean’s physics and chemistry,
especially leading to ocean warming and acidification, and consequently sea-level rise.
These changes significantly affect the ocean’s ecology (organisms and habitats) and, consequently, ecosystem
services and coastal human societies (e.g. fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, food security).
As atmospheric CO2 increases, the solutions (i.e. mitigate, protect, repair, adapt) become fewer and less
effective, thus decreasing the long-term ability of humankind to cope with both on-set and gradual changes in
the ocean.
Such an assessment provides further compelling arguments for rapid and ambitious CO2 emission reductions
at the international level, notably through the revision cycle of countries’ 2030 pledges (i.e. Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions, INDCs) approved by the Paris Agreement in 2015.
Ocean Warming
47
. The cascading effects of climate-related changes in the ocean
2.1 Introduction
Together, the atmosphere and the ocean allow life
on the Blue Planet. These life-support systems are,
however, altered by human activities, as exemplified by
contemporary climate change that generates worldwide
disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual
environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and
natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies.
An impressive body of knowledge on “emerging” issues
such as ocean warming and acidification has recently
accumulated. Regarding ocean acidification, the number
of scientific papers increased by 35% per year between
2000 and 2013 compared to an increase of 4.8% per year
for all scientific fields (Riebesell and Gattuso, 2014; Yang et
al., 2015). Another significant indicator is the development
of three chapters specifically dedicated to the ocean
in the contribution of the IPCC Working Group 2 to the
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These chapters together
represent a more than 400-page synthesis of the existing
literature, at the global (Pörtner et al., 2014; Wong et al.,
2014) and regional (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014) levels.
Scientists also undertook massive efforts to disseminate
their understandings outside of the scientific community,
and now the issue of ocean climate-related changes is the
subject of numerous policy concerns (e.g. Goal 14 of the
Sustainable Development Goals1, Our Ocean Conferences
in 2014 in the USA and in 2015 in Chile, and Ocean days
and side events at the 21st Conference of the Parties to
UNFCCC2 in 2015). Progress to develop the scientific
understanding of what is happening in the ocean as well
as to better include the ocean-related issues in policy
agenda at various scales, must, however, be reinforced
for at least three reasons. First, and although COP 21
allowed some major progress, the source of the problem,
i.e. the high concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in
the atmosphere, has not yet been eradicated. Mitigation
efforts at the global scale must thus be pursued, not to
say drastically accelerated. Here the scientific community,
including the ocean community, has a major role to play to
“keep the pressure on” through advances in knowledge,
from processes at work to impacts and thresholds (Briggs
et al., 2015; Stocker, 2015; Magnan et al., 2016). Second,
Science still faces key research challenges to develop
multiple-driver studies at the community to ecosystem
levels, and to find answers to societal problems. Riebesell
and Gattuso (2015) emphasize four of these challenges
regarding ocean acidification: to concentrate on reference
1 http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/oceans/
2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
48
organisms and keystone species, including ecosystem
engineers; to identify commonalities and develop unifying
concepts; to focus on species, processes and ecosystems
considered most vulnerable or most resilient to ocean
change; and to cover the range of processes from subcellular to ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical
cycling. A fifth one of course deals with better understanding
the interactions with human societies, from impacts to
short- to long-term responses. A third reason is that the
societal side of the problem has been understudied up to
now. Yet, as climate change will amplify, changes in the
ocean as well as impacts on society will also increase.
Whatever the global mitigation efforts will be in the coming
decades, some impacts are already unavoidable due to
latency in the climate and ocean systems. This means that
dealing with climate and ocean changes is not only about
“avoiding the unmanageable” (i.e. prevent dangerous
physical and biological changes through massive GHG
emission mitigation), but also about “managing the
unavoidable” (i.e. adaptation) (Bierbaum et al., 2007).
This chapter does not pretend to provide answers to
the challenges raised above. It rather seeks to lay some
foundations for future transdisciplinary research on ocean
changes and their consequences on human societies. It is
mainly inspired from a scientific paper (Gattuso et al., 2015)
and on a Policy Brief (Magnan et al., 2015a) that provide
a synthesis of the recent and future changes to the ocean
and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services
provided to humans. This chapter follows the “chain of
impacts” principle to emphasize cascading effects, going
from changes in the ocean’s physics and chemistry to
marine and coastal species, and then to human societies
through the ocean’s ecosystem services. It considers
the global scale and focuses on key organisms and
ecosystem services for which robust scientific studies have
been recently published (Howes et al., 2015; Weatherdon
et al., 2015). The chapter notably explores two contrasting
GHG emission scenarios developed by the IPCC for the
end of the 21st Century: the high emissions trajectory
(Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5)
and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6). The latter
scenario is consistent with the Paris Agreement3 of keeping
mean global temperature increase below 2°C in the 21st
Century. We then discuss possible solutions and end
with four key messages to be considered in international
climate negotiations under the UNFCCC.
3 UNFCCC. The Paris Agreement (FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1). Available at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.
Ocean Warming
Figure 2.1 The chain of impacts of ocean acidification, ocean warming and sea-level rise.
Sources: the authors, derived from Pörtner et al. (2014), Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2014).
ascading effects
Ocean Warming
49
. The cascading effects of climate-related changes in the ocean
Figure 2.2 Distribution of heat, carbon
dioxide and ice-melt water in the main Earth
reservoirs and consequences for the ocean.
2.2 Cascading effects
2.2.1 General overview of the “chain of impacts”
Together, ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sealevel rise drive a “chain of impacts” that links changes in
the ocean to humans (Figure 2.1). Changes in the basic
parameters of the ocean have started to induce major
consequences on organisms and ecosystems in terms of
abundance, phenology, geographical distribution, invasive
species, prey-predator relations, and species extinction
(for a synthesis, see Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014; Pörtner
et al., 2014; Howes et al., 2015). Due to a domino
effect, key human sectors are now at threat, especially
fisheries, aquaculture, coastal risks management, health
and coastal tourism (for a synthesis, see Weatherdon et
al., 2015). Severe implications at both the national and
the international levels are to be expected from such
cascading effects (Magnan et al., 2015b). Changes in fish
catch potential in a given area, for example, will challenge
international fishery agreements between the countries
concerned (e.g. in the western and eastern part of the
Pacific, in North Atlantic, in polar seas), which in turn will
have consequences on the industry (profitability, jobs,
etc.), markets and prices in several countries, and their
international competitiveness. Yet, the more that changes
in the ocean challenge current international agreements,
the more they will question food and human security,
geopolitics and development at the global scale. As with
climate change at large, changes in the ocean are definitely
a global concern, extending beyond restricted national
boundaries. This is all the more true, as the scientific
community tells us that the impacts on key marine
and coastal organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem
services are already detectable from high to low latitudes,
transcending the traditional North/South divide.
50
2.2.2 The ocean as a “climate integrator”
The first building block in the chain of impacts (see left hand
side of Figure 2.1) refers to the direct interface between
the atmosphere and the ocean. “Climate” is indeed not a
result only of atmosphere dynamics, but actually of fine
and multi-temporal atmosphere-ocean interactions. As a
result, climate change not only affects the atmosphere,
but also the ocean (including enclosed seas) that must
thus be considered as a “climate integrator’’ (Figure 2.2).
The ocean has, (i) absorbed 93% of the earth’s additional
heat since the 1970s, moderating global warming; (ii)
captured 26% of human-derived CO2 emissions since
1750, limiting the increase in atmospheric temperature;
and (iii) collected virtually all water from melting ice.
Without the ocean, present climate change would thus
be far more intense and challenging for human life.
2.2.3 Ocean physics and chemistry
This regulating function, however, happens at a cost, as
the rise in GHG concentration4 over the industrial age
has driven a series of major environmental changes in
the ocean, especially warming, acidification and sea-level
rise. There is strong evidence that the ocean has warmed
between 1971 and 2010, and it is very likely that warming
was occurring earlier (Rhein et al., 2013). Warming has
occurred at all depths but is most pronounced at the
surface. Over the last four decades, it is estimated that
the temperature of the upper 75m has increased by
around 0.11°C per decade. The uptake of carbon dioxide
(CO2) in sea water causes a decrease in pH (i.e. increase
in acidity), as well as in the availability of carbonate ions
(CO32-) that are one of the building blocks required by
4 From 278 to 400 ppm.
Ocean Warming
ascading effects
Figure 2.3 Contrasting risk of impacts to ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Source: the authors, adapted from Gattuso et al. (2015).
many marine plants and animals to make their skeletons,
shells and other calcareous structures. This process is
known as “ocean acidification”. There is high confidence
that surface ocean pH has declined by 0.1 pH units
since the beginning of the industrial age, representing an
increase of ocean acidity by around 30% in 250 years
(Gattuso et al., 2014). This ocean warming (i.e. thermal
expansion) and melting of continental ice sheets has
caused sea-level rise. It has been measured that global
mean sea level has risen by approximately 1.7mm/year
over the 1901-2010 period, with an acceleration between
1993 and 2010 (+3.2mm/year) (Church et al., 2013).
different under these two emissions scenarios.
Obviously, the ocean will be much warmer under
RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6, the global mean change
in sea surface temperature differing by nearly a factor
of 3 when compared to preindustrial levels (+3.2°C vs.
+1.2°C). In parallel, global surface acidity changes will
decrease by 0.07 and 0.33 pH units under RCP2.6 and
RCP8.5, respectively (relative to preindustrial values).
Eventually, it is projected that mean global sea-level
rise will be multiplied by a factor of 1.4 under RCP8.5
compared to RCP2.6, relative to the preindustrial period
(respectively +0.86m vs. +0.60m)5.
Future conditions for the ocean depend on the amount
of carbon that will be emitted in the coming decades.
The more stringent scenario (RCP2.6) allows less than
one-sixth of 21st Century emissions expected under
the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). One must,
however, be aware that the ocean’s capacity to absorb
CO2 will decrease with increasing emissions: the fraction
of anthropogenic emissions absorbed by the ocean in
the 21st Century is projected to decline from 56% for
RCP2.6 to 22% for RCP8.5. This suggests that ocean
physics and chemistry in 2100 will be significantly
2.2.4 Organisms and ecosystems
Ocean Warming
Acknowledging that impacts on key marine and coastal
organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services are
already detectable, Science warns that several of
these environments and services will likely face high
risk of impacts before 2100 (Figure 2.3), even with the
moderate CO2 emissions scenario (RCP2.6).
5 This multiplying factor reaches 1.6 when the reference period considered is
the 1990-1999 decade (+0.67m under RCP8.5 and +0.41m under RCP2.6).
51
. The cascading effects of climate-related changes in the ocean
While warm-water corals are at the frontline of ocean
changes, mid-latitude seagrass, high-latitude pteropods
and krill, mid-latitude bivalves, and finfishes are also
already affected. In a stringent emissions pathway
(RCP2.6), ocean changes carry high risks of impact for
warm-water corals as well as for mid-latitude bivalves,
the risk of other impacts remaining moderate – although
worrying. In the higher emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the
situation will be greatly aggravated: several key marine
organisms (e.g. corals, pteropods, finfish, and krill) would
face very high risk of impact, such as mass mortalities or
species displacement (Beaugrand et al., 2015; Gattuso et
al., 2015; Nagelkerken and Connell, 2015). These results,
which are derived from experiments, field observations
and modelling, are consistent with evidence from highCO2 periods in the geological record, giving credence to
those worrying future projections.
2.2.5 Ecosystem services
Impacts to the ocean’s ecosystem services follow a
similar trajectory of “moderate” to “high to very high” risks
of impact with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively (see
Figure 2.3). Fisheries and aquaculture (e.g. fin fisheries at
low latitudes), which are key for the survival for millions
of people (i.e. a source of dietary protein and income),
are expected to be severely affected under business-asusual RCP8.5, putting global food security at high risk
of disruption. This threat therefore must be considered
together with the fact that climate change will also
severely affect agriculture on land. Likewise, the risk of
impact on ecosystem services such as coastal protection
(e.g. by oyster beds, coral reefs, and mangroves) would
become high or very high by 2100, thus exacerbating the
risks of marine flooding in low-lying areas.
Of course, these impacts of ocean warming and
acidification will be cumulative or synergistic with other
human-induced stresses such as over-exploitation of
living resources, habitat destruction and pollution. This
opens the perspective of significant disruption to job
markets, international fishing agreements, geopolitics,
etc., as mentioned above. In addition, given the extent
of the expected changes, it must be acknowledged that
no country is immune to these impacts, making this
a worldwide problem and highlighting the importance
of successful climate negotiations if the international
community is to avoid moving towards an unsustainable
future.
2.3 Solutions at risk
2.3.1 A threatened diversity of solutions
Various options are available to address ocean impacts,
with some evidence of success (Billé et al., 2013).
They can be grouped into four categories (Figure 2.4):
mitigating CO2 emissions; protecting marine and coastal
Figure 2.4 Solutions to face climate and CO2 – related changes in the ocean. Source: adapted from Billé et al. (2013) and Gattuso et al. (2015).
52
Ocean Warming
ascading effects
ecosystems (e.g. protected areas, or regulation of natural
resources exploitation); repairing ecosystems that have
already experienced damage (e.g. assisted evolution
of corals and/or coral farming); and adapting (e.g.
economic activities diversification, or coastal setback
zones). Despite the encouraging sign of emerging
responses, the number of options and their efficiency
narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies (Gattuso et
al., 2015). A key rationale behind this is that the more
ecosystems are impacted, the less they will be resilient
to gradual and on-set changes, thus exacerbating
negative impacts and the adverse consequences for
humans. That is to say, moving above the +2°C path
will significantly limit the manoeuvring space of coastal
societies to implement effective action. This matter
actually concerns humankind at large given that it is not
only coastal societies that depend on these vital ocean
services.
2.3.2 CO2 emission reduction as the
overarching solution
The previous sections lead to a clear conclusion: rapid
and substantial reduction of CO2 emissions is required in
order to prevent the massive and effectively irreversible
impacts on ocean ecosystems and their services. In line
with this and according to Gattuso et al. (2015), it appears
that RCP2.6 is not a “green utopia” where everything
would be fine, but actually a “minimum ambition” to be
consistent with United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) fundamental objective of
preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system ... within a time-frame sufficient to
allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,
to ensure that food production is not threatened, and
to enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner (United Nations, 1992). From a
purely scientific point of view, RCP2.6 will already bring
major changes in the functioning and resources of the
ocean.
Although international climate negotiations under the
UNFCCC have only minimally considered the impacts
of GHG emissions on the ocean and, in turn, its role
as a key area of solutions to tackle climate change and
enhance adaptation (Stocker, 2015), COP21 brought
some progress as the text of the Paris Agreement
recognizes ‘the importance of ensuring the integrity
of all ecosystems, including oceans’. In parallel, some
emerging works propose, for example, to enlarge the
scope of the negotiations to a wider panel of “planetary
vital signs” than only air temperature increase by
Ocean Warming
the end of the century (Briggs et al., 2015). Some of
these vital signs should reflect changes in the ocean,
referring to its warming and/or its acidification, for
example. Given the contrasted futures summarized in
the present contribution, the ocean obviously provides
further compelling arguments for rapid and rigorous
GHG emission (notably CO2) reduction. Accordingly, any
post-2015 global climate regime that will not significantly
contribute to minimize the impacts on the ocean will
remain incomplete and inadequate.
2.4 Conclusions
This contribution emphasizes four main cascading
conclusions. First, the ocean strongly influences the
climate system and provides fundamental services to
humans. As a result, it must be recognized as a key
component of the action, from local to international
levels, against climate change. Second, unequivocal
scientific evidence shows that impacts on key marine
and coastal organisms, ecosystems, and services are
already detectable and that high to very high risks of
impact are to be expected by 2100, even under the
low emissions scenario (RCP2.6). These impacts
will occur across all latitudes, making this a global
concern beyond the North/South divide. Third, there
are concerns among the scientific community that as
atmospheric CO2 increases, the options for the ocean
(i.e. mitigate, protect, repair, adapt) become fewer and
less effective. Fourth, GHG mitigation at the global
scale appears to be an overarching solution that will
determine the future of the others (protect, repair,
adapt). As a result, rapid and substantial reductions of
GHG emissions are required, meaning that the ocean
community will have to “keep the pressure” on the
international climate negotiation process to ensure,
first, that the mitigation efforts adopted in Paris in 2015
are effectively implemented and, second, that the
global ambition is progressively increased. It is thus of
critical importance that changes in the ocean are taken
into account in climate talks, and a relevant architecture
for this must now be developed.
Acknowledgements
This is a product of “The Oceans 2015 Initiative”, an
expert group supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco
Foundation, the Ocean Acidification International
Coordination Centre of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, the BNP Paribas Foundation and the
Monégasque Association for Ocean Acidification. We
thank all co-authors of the paper by Gattuso et al.
(2015).
53
. The cascading effects of climate-related changes in the ocean
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