Download Climate Change Bill 2007 - IUCN Academy of Environmental Law

IUCN ACADEMY OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAW,
Conference on Climate Law in Developing Countries,
Ottawa, 26-28 September 2008
THE ROLE OF MARINE “FORESTS” AND SOILS
AS CARBON SINKS: ENHANCED BIOSEQUESTRATION AS A MITIGATION
STRATEGY
Professor Rob Fowler,
Law School,
University of South Australia
THE “BOTTOM LINE” – AVOIDING
‘DANGEROUS’ CLIMATE CHANGE
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and
any related legal instruments that the Conference
of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in
accordance with the relevant provisions of the
Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”
UNFCCC, Article 2
IPCC 4th AR (2007) – broad
conclusions


“warming of the climate system is
unequivocal”
Most of the observed increase in globallyaveraged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic emissions”
IPCC 4th AR – Predicted Impacts


Temperature increase to 2100

Best estimate: 1.8 – 4.0°

Likely increase: 1.1 – 6.4°
Sea-level rise


18 – 59 cms.
“more rapid sea-level rise on century time
scales cannot be excluded”
IPCC 4th AR – Stabilization Targets

Category I



Category VI



350-400 ppm CO2
445 – 490 ppm CO2 - eq
660 – 770 ppm CO2
855 – 1130 ppm CO2 - eq
NB: Current levels


384 ppm CO2
445ppm CO2 - eq
IPCC AR 4 – Temperature Increase
IPCC AR 4 – Emissions Reduction
Targets
NATIONAL RESPONSES – EMISSIONS
REDUCTION LEGISLATION

EUROPEAN UNION

March 2007: EU Council commits to:




January 2008: EU Council proposes action to achieve
above targets via:




Reduce emissions by 20% by 2030 (compared to 1990
levels), increasing to 30% if other nations also agree;
Increase the use of renewable energy sources to 20% of
consumption by 2020
Reduce overall energy consumption by 20% by 2020
Upgraded emissions trading scheme (ETS)
Use of CDM mechanism
Promotion of renewable energy & biofuels
All Member States required to make reduction targets
legally binding
NATIONAL RESPONSES – EMISSIONS
REDUCTION LEGISLATION (cont.)

UNITED KINGDOM : Climate Change Bill 2007



Proposes 23 – 32% reduction by 2030, 60% by 2050
(against 1990 levels)
5-year carbon budgets, with annual reporting
USA



California Global Warming Solutions Act 2006 – return
to 1990 levels by 2020
Does not endorse Executive Order 5-3-05 (to reduce to
2000 levels by 2010 and by 80% by 2050 (of 1990
levels)
Numerous emissions reduction Bills currently before
Congress
NATIONAL RESPONSES – EMISSIONS
REDUCTION LEGISLATION (cont.)

CANADA: Clean Air & Climate Change Bill 2007 (Bill C-30)




Proposes 6% reduction by 2012, 20% by 2020, 35% by
2035 and 60-80% by 2050 (against 1990 levels)
Proposes both a cap and trade system + a carbon tax
Bill not supported by current minority Federal
government
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Climate Change and Emissions
Reduction Act 2007


60% reduction by 2050 (against 1990 levels) to be
achieved by voluntary measures
No interim target for 2020
Reassessment of IPCC AR 4
1. Acceleration of CO2 emissions
1990 – 1999: 1.3% p.a.

2000 – 2005: 3.3% p.a.
(Canadell et al, September 2007)

NB: China: 2005 – 35% of US emissions
2007 – exceeded US emissions
India: to become 3rd largest emitter by 2015
(IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2007)
Reassessment of IPCC AR 4
2. Declining carbon sinks (both oceans and
terrestrial)
“IPCC science expected this decrease but the
observed changes are larger than estimated”
Climate Institute, Melbourne, 2007
Reassessment of IPCC AR 4
3. Accelerated Warming (Hansen, 2008)
- Earth’s climate system is about twice as
sensitive to CO2 as estimated by IPCC
- current levels are sufficient to trigger
“dangerous” impacts
- BUT “feed-back” events could trigger a “tipping
point”:




Methane release from perma-frost
Additional CO2 from drying/burning vegetation
Deep ocean releases of CO2 in carbonates and
frozen methane
Major albedo effects from melting ice sheets &
reduced aerosol levels
Reassessment of IPCC AR 4
4. Ice-melt and associated sea-level rise
“Sea level rises of several metres per century
occur in the paleoclimate record, in response to
forcings slower and weaker than the present …
once ice-sheet disintegration is underway,
decadal changes of sea level may be substantial”
Hansen, 2008
NB: Pfeffer et al, Science, 5 September 2008: a
rise of 80 cms – 2 metres by 2100 “under
physically possible glaciological conditions”
Revised Targets and Timetables


350ppm CO2 stabilization target (Hansen,
2008)
 phase-out of coal by 2030
 Enhanced bio-sequestration through
improved forestry & agricultural practices
 “to be reassessed as effects on ice sheet
mass balance are observed”
NB: Monbiot, 2007: minimum cut in CO2
emissions of 100%, possibly 110 – 115%!
•
Revised Targets and Timetables

An Australian emissions trajectory
which includes targets of reductions:




40%
75%
85%
95%
below
below
below
below
1990
1990
1990
1990
(Christoff, P, 2008)
levels
levels
levels
levels
by 2020,
by 2030,
by2040 and
by 2050.
Carbon Sequestration as a Mitigation
Strategy


To reduce CO2 emissions
 Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
 Reducing emissions from deforestation
and forest degradation (REDD)
To enhance uptake of CO2 by natural
sinks
 Afforestation and reforestation


Sea-grass replenishment
Soils – bio-char treatment
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)




Potential for 60 -600 Gt C by 2100 (IPCC,
2005)
Trials proposed for both capture and
storage (MIT, 2007)
FutureGen Project – US DOE withdrawal,
Jan., 2008
Storage:
 cost and capacity issues
 Legal issues
REDD Schemes

UNFCCC COP13, Bali, December
2007, Decision 2/CP.13
“Policy approaches and positive incentives on
issues relating to reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation in
developing countries; and the role of
conservation, sustainable management of forests
and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in
developing countries”
REDD Schemes


SBSTA Workshop, Japan, June 2008
AWG-LCA Workshop, Accra, August 2008
calls for further work on:
 Permanence;
 Additionality; and
 Displacement of emissions (leakage)
NB: Science Daily, 14 September 2008,
“Old Growth Forests are Valuable Carbon
Sinks”
“Enhancement of Forest Carbon
Stocks”


Eligible for credits under CDM but not
utilized in practice
Issues re



Permanence
Inflationary impact on carbon market
Net loss of biodiversity
Enhancement of Ocean Sinks – Seagrasses



“sea-grasses appear to be one of the most
productive plant types with capacity to sequester
carbon on the planet” (Balance Carbon, 2007)
Global potential = 2.4 m tCO2 per year (Mateo et
al, 2006)
Stable bio-sequestration possible for decades to
centuries if environmental conditions maintained
Enhancement of capacity of soils as
sinks



In terrestrial ecosystems, soils and surface litter
store 80% of total CO2 v above ground
vegetation (20%)
Significant losses from conversion to croplands
(15-30%)
Plantstones (phytoliths) as carbon stores?
Enhancement of capacity of soils as
sinks

Bio-Char:

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Based on ancient Amazonian technique
Modern chemical process of pyrolosis also yields
liquid/gas biofuel and is energy positive
Soils enriched with bio-char =150gC/kg v 20-30gC/kg in
surrounding soils
Could store up to 9.5 Gt C per year by 2100
Could reduce emissions from land-use change by 12%
per year (if replaces slash and burn method)
Also reduces emissions of methane and nitrous oxide
from soils
Restores degraded soils and increases crop yields
CONCLUSION

Accommodating enhanced bio-sequestration within
post-2012 climate change legal regime
 Allow uptake via sea-grasses and bio-char enriched soils
to be taken into account in determining compliance with
specified emissions reduction targets
 Eligibility under CDM mechanism ?
NB:In a zero or negative carbon scenario, will provide
additional capacity for bio-sequestration to assist
achievement of 350ppm stabilization target
And, on the other hand …