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Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Literature and documentation search for food security under global pressure The issues of institutions we have analysed: European Union: European Council European Commission OECD FAO United Kingdom: BIS-Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Foresight DEFRA CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Global Food Security USA: The White House AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science USDA Center for Sustainable Systems IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute Schweiz: SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband Definition of Key Terms: Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects. Resilience: A capability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from significant multihazard threats with minimum damage to social wellbeing, the economy, and the environment. Risk: A combination of the magnitude of the potential consequence(s) of climate change impact(s) and the likelihood that the consequence(s) will occur. Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Source: National Research Council. 2011. America’s Climate Choices Stand: Juli 2012 1 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö European Union: European Council European Commission European Council (2010): Project Europe 2030; Challenges and Opportunities A report to the European Council by the Reflection Group on the future of the EU 2030 Looking to the 2030 horizon, Europeans will need a highly competitive and social market economy in order to maintain social cohesion and fight against climate change. The European Union needs to implement a common energy policy with both internal and external dimensions that will allow achieving greater energy efficiency and savings, and diversifying the energy supplies from third countries. The European Union must continue leading the fight against climate change, in order to be more effective and relevant in the merging world order. By 2030 world energy requirements are likely to be 50 % higher than today, with fossil fuels representing 80 % of supply. Dependence on energy imports is set to increase, with the European Union importing nearly two thirds of its needs. In addition, the availability of energy and other essential resources is likely to be adversely affected by climate change and many predict severe shortages by 2030. The challenges we face today are different to those of the past and call for different responses, whether we look at climate change or energy shortages. Commission of the European Communities (2010): Communication from the Commission: ”EUROPE 2020” A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Europe faces a moment of transformation. The world is moving fast and long-term challenges (globalisation, pressure on resources, aging) intensify. The European Union must now take charge of its future. EUROPE 2020 sets out a vision of Europe`s social market economy for the 21st century. Europe 2020 puts forward three mutually reinforcing priorities: Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation, Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy, Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion. Stand: Juli 2012 2 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Commission of the European Communities (2010): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: The CAP towards 2020: Meeting the food, natural resources and territorial challenges of the future The Common Agricultural Policy is confronted with a set of challenges, some unique in nature, some unforeseen, that invite the European Union to make a strategic choice for the long-term future of its agriculture and rural areas. In broad term, the views expressed recommended three strategic aims: To preserve the food production potential on a sustainable basis throughout the European Union, so as to guarantee long term-food security for European citizens and to contribute to growing world food demand, expected by the FAO to increase by 70 % by 2050. Recent incidents of increased market instability, often exacerbated by climate change, further highlight these trends and pressures. Europe´s capacity to deliver food security is an important long term choice for Europe which cannot be taken for granted. To support farming communities that provide European citizens with quality, value and diversity of food produced sustainable, in line with our environmental, water, animal health and public health requirements. The active management of natural resources by farming is one important tool to maintain the rural landscape, to combat biodiversity loss and contributes to mitigate and to adapt to climate change. This is an essential basis for dynamic territories and long term economic viability. To maintain viable rural communities, for whom farming is an important economic activity creating local employment, this delivers multiple economic, social, environmental and territorial benefits. A significant reduction in local production would also have implications with regards to greenhouse gases (GHG) characteristic local landscapes as well as more limited choice for consumer. Commission of the European Communities (2009): White Paper Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action Addressing climate change requires two types of response. Firstly, and importantly, we must reduce our greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) (i.e. take mitigation action) and secondly we must take adaptation action to deal with the unavoidable impacts. This White Paper sets out a framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impact of climate change. It builds on the wide-ranging consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and further research efforts that identified action to be taken in the short-term. The framework is designed to evolve as further evidence becomes available. It will complement action by Member States and Stand: Juli 2012 3 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö support wider international efforts to adapt to climate change, particularly in developing countries. Climate change will impact a number of sectors. In agriculture projected climatic changes will affect crop yields, livestock management and the location of production. The increasing likelihood and severity of extreme weather events will considerably increase the risk of crop failure. Climate change will also affect soil by depleting organic matter – a major contributor to soil fertility. Consideration should be given to the CAP providing an adequate framework for sustainable production, thereby enabling the agricultural sector to deal with the challenges posed by changing climatic conditions. This will involve, inter alia, assessing which water quantity and quality requirements should be further integrated into relevant CAP instruments as well as improving the efficiency of water use by agriculture especially in water stress regions. A reflection on possible support for farms which are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change could also be undertaken. Further details are provided in a specific working document on agriculture and adaptation to climate change. In any case, the possible contribution of the CAP to adaptation to climate change will also have to be examined in the context of the review of the CAP after 2013. Actions to be taken (by EU and Member States): Ensure that measures for adaptation and water management are embedded in rural development national strategies and programmes for 2007-2013, Consider how adaptation can be integrated into the 3 strands of rural development and give adequate support for sustainable production including how the CAP contributes to the efficient use of water in agriculture, Examine the capacity of the Farm Advisory System to reinforce training, knowledge and adoption of new technologies that facilitate adaptation, Update forestry strategy and launch debate on options for an EU approach on forest protection and forest information systems. Commission of the European Communities (2007): Green Paper from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action This Green Paper examines climate change impacts in Europe, the case for action and policy responses in the EU. It focuses on the role of the EU, but takes account of the prominent role of Member State, regional and local authorities in any efficient adaptation strategy. As the adaptation challenge is global by its very nature, the Green Paper also raises the external dimension and looks at adaptation measures in Europe that could also apply to other parts of the world, and the opportunity for the EU to provide international leadership in this area. Stand: Juli 2012 4 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The European Union has to take on the challenge of adaptation, working in partnership with its Member States and globally with partner countries. A European approach is necessary to ensure proper coordination and the efficiency of policies that address the impacts of climate change. Adaptation actions must be consistent with mitigation actions and vice versa. Commission of the European Communities (2007): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council: Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union This Communication identifies a first set of policy options with a view to opening up a wide-ranging debate on how to adapt to water scarcity and droughts, two phenomena that could potentially increase in a context of climate change. Access to good quality water in sufficient quantity is fundamental to the daily lives of every human being and to most economic activities. But water scarcity and droughts have now emerged as a major challenge – and climate change is expected to make matters worse. This is a worldwide problem, and the European Union is not spared. Over the past thirty years, droughts have dramatically increased in number and intensity in the EU. The number of areas and people affected by droughts went up by almost 20% between 1976 and 2006. One of the most widespread droughts occurred in 2003 when over 100 million people and a third of the EU territory were affected. Recent trends show a significant extension of water scarcity across Europe. Water scarcity and droughts are have a direct impact on citizens and economic sectors which use and depend on water, such as agriculture, tourism, industry, energy and transport. In particular, hydropower which is a carbon neutral source of energy heavily depends on water availability. Water scarcity and droughts also have broader impacts on natural resources at large through negative side-effects on biodiversity, water quality, increased risks of forest fires and soil impoverishment. In a context where changes in climate are foreseen in spite of significant EU mitigation efforts, this trend is expected to continue and even worsen, as underscored in the recently adopted Commission Green Paper on adaptation to climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change would bring water scarcity to between 1.1 and 3.2 billion people if temperatures rose by 2 to 3° C. Drought affected areas are likely to increase in extent. In these circumstances, it has become an EU priority to devise effective drought risk management strategies. Stand: Juli 2012 5 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö European Commission (2010): GREEN PAPER On Forest Protection and Information in the EU: Preparing forests for climate change Forests have developed together with the naturally changing climate over the millennia. As climate shifted slowly, and the natural environment presented few barriers, species and communities could adapt and evolve more easily. Most EU forest management is aimed at developing forests that are well adapted to local growing conditions. However the rapid rate of human-induced climate change is now overcoming the natural ability of ecosystems to adapt. The rate of temperature increase is unprecedented. A fragmented landscape, often simplified forest composition and structure and pressures such as forest dieback, new pests and storms make autonomous forest adaptation much more difficult. Therefore, increased human intervention regarding species choice and management techniques is likely to be required to maintain viable forest cover and continuity of all forest functions. Some regions may experience more favourable conditions for forest growth in the medium term. Mean temperatures in Europe have now risen by almost 1°C during the past century and are expected to climb further, the most optimistic scenario forecasting an increase of 2° C by 2100. A change of this magnitude corresponds to the difference in the temperature optimum of forest types as different as spruce versus beech forest or beech versus oak stands. It will thus alter the suitability of whole regions for certain forest types, forcing a shift in natural species distribution and leading to changes in growth of existing stands. In addition extreme events (storms, forest fires, droughts and heat waves) are expected to become much more common and/or severe. Even without climate change, the capacity of forests to carry out their functions has always been under pressure from various natural hazards. While it is clear that in general climate change exacerbates such hazards, it is impossible to accurately quantify how much impact is due only to climate change compared to historical levels. For this reason, the impacts on forest functions from both endemic and climate change causes are considered as a whole. Commission of the European Communities (2012): Report from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions “The implementation of the Soil Thematic Strategy and ongoing activities” The report provides an overview of the implementation of the Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection since its adoption in September 2006. The objective of the Strategy is to protect the soil while using it sustainably, through the prevention of further degradation, the preservation of soil function and the restoration of degraded soils. The report also presents current soil degradation trends both in Europe and globally, as well as future challenges to ensure protection. The Soil Thematic Strategy has Stand: Juli 2012 6 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö acted as an important driver for numerous soil awareness raising tools and networks that have been developed in Member States, including the European Network for Soil Awareness. Commission of the European Communities (2012): Assessing Agriculture Vulnerabilities for the design of Effective Measures for Adaption to Climate Change (AVEMAC project) This study was carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre The motivation of this study has been the lack of information on vulnerabilities, risks, and needs for the adaptation of European agriculture under a changing climate in the next decades. Eventually the results of this study shall help the formulation of appropriate policy options and the development of adequate policy instruments to support the adaptation to climate change of the EU agricultural sector. The analysis of vulnerability, which integrates results from both the bio-physical simulations and the agro-climatic indicators, provides an indication of which regions may expect potentially significant production changes by the time horizons of 2020 and 2030. The analyses of this study must be considered as a first step only, since they have neither included adaptation nor a bio-economic evaluation of estimated vulnerabilities. Therefore main aspects of and requirements for a possible future integrated analysis at EU27 level to address climate change and agriculture with the target of providing policy support, including relevant workflows, are presented. Commission of the European Communities (2007): Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector AGRI-2006-G4-05 Climate change is already happening. Regardless of international progress to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, the climate system will continue to adjust for the next few decades to past and present emissions. This will bring unavoidable impacts on natural and human systems, presenting the challenge of a second response to climate change - adaptation - to prepare for and cope with these impacts. Climate change is a real concern for the sustainable development of agriculture, both globally and within the EU. Although agriculture is a complex and highly evolved sector, it is still directly dependent on climate, since heat, sunlight and water are the main drivers of crop growth. While some aspects of climate change such as longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures may bring benefits, there will also be a range of adverse impacts, including reduced water availability and more frequent extreme weather. These impacts may put agricultural activities, certainly Stand: Juli 2012 7 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö at the level of individual land managers and farm estates, at significant risk. This study on ‘Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector’ aims to provide the European Commission with an improved understanding of the potential implications of climate change and adaptation options for European agriculture, covering the EU 27 Member States. It also aims to assist policy makers as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change. Commission of the European Communities (2012): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the European Innovation Partnership 'Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability' World food demand is expected to increase by 70% by 2050 (FAO). The dramatic increase in global food demand will be accompanied by a steep increase in the demand for feed, fibre, biomass, and biomaterial. This will inevitably trigger a supply reaction from Union's agriculture which is one of the biggest suppliers to global agricultural markets. Union agriculture accounts for 18% of world food exports, worth € 76 billion. In production values, Union agriculture provides more than 40% of total food production in the OECD. A shift towards a different growth path is needed in order to establish a competitive and sustainable production of food, feed, fibre, biomass and biomaterial. To achieve this, efficiency in supply must be complemented by a reduction in the dramatic post-harvest losses. It must likewise include adaptation to climate change and the wise use of biodiversity and restoration of ecosystems and ecosystem services; it must build upon the particularities of each territory and the potential offered by genetic diversity so that we combine our rich genetic base with diverse agricultural practices, new and old, and ensure better allocation and use of our limited resources. Food chains are diverse and their specificities must be integrated: "Long" supply chains involve aspects such as conservation and storage, while "short" supply chains place the emphasis on the local provision of food and particular quality attributes. Consumers must be at the heart of all this, so as to steer production towards safe, high quality and sustainably produced food. Increased and sustainable agricultural output will be achievable only with major research and innovation efforts at all levels. Increased productivity and competitiveness of agriculture calls, first of all, for improved resource efficiency in order to produce with less water, energy, fertilisers (especially phosphorus and nitrogen), and pesticides. It requires also the increased use of renewable energy sources and a reduction of waste, in line with the orientations given by the 'Roadmap to a Resource efficient Europe'. Sustainability requires pollution reduction, to protect water quality and soil functionality, the preservation of biodiversity Stand: Juli 2012 8 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö and ecosystem services, as well as a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable production must integrate input and output substitution by the smart use and recycling of bio-mass and bio-refinery; and it needs to reduce post-harvest losses. The challenge exists for the whole supply chain from primary production up to the consumer. Consumers can alleviate pressures for more primary production by changing consumption patterns. Education and training offer a huge potential for enhancing nutrition, healthy lifestyles, and reducing food wastage. Sustainability criteria, established at pivotal points throughout the supply chain, would contribute to increasing transparency, trust, and knowledge. In order to make the increase in agricultural productivity and output sustainable, natural resources must be well managed, in line with environmental requirements. Land will be particularly important, as this is the medium where the success or failure in moving towards more sustainable patterns of production will be observed. Land is the essential resource for agricultural production. Land use interacts in multiple ways with water quality and quantity, biodiversity, and the provision of ecosystem services. Climate change places emphasis on soil as a particularly vulnerable resource. Soil functions including the stability of soils, the soil water cycle, the nutrient buffering capacity, and the soil biotic integrity are essential parameters of land productivity. Its function as a carbon sink gives soil a key role in climate change mitigation. Appropriate land management must prevent soil degradation and erosion, stabilise soil functions, and address climate change mitigation and adaptation. European Commission, Informal Ministerial Roundtable on Climate Change (2012): Climate change and access to Energy: a priority for EU development policy Climate change, green economy and sustainability are at the core of our new blueprint to guide our development policy, our so-called Agenda for Change. Sustainability is a recurring theme in the Agenda for Change and will help us set about meeting the challenges we face as we seek to make EU development cooperation deliver more and better results. In the Agenda for Change we have identified two areas for intensified cooperation, because of the challenge they represent for developing countries, but also because of their potential as catalysts for sustainable growth. Moreover, both areas have implications for climate change. The first area is agriculture Agriculture can be deeply affected by climate change; this represents an additional challenge for our partners, not only in terms of food and nutrition security but also as regards efficient management of precious natural resources or even sometimes conflict prevention. Adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector and efforts to secure a sustainable path for agriculture are therefore crucial. Stand: Juli 2012 9 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Looked at the other way round, agriculture also has the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Good practices can contribute to higher carbon stocks and lower emissions. We will therefore ensure that agriculture receives greater attention in future strategies The second area is energy Energy is key to enabling people to pull themselves out of poverty. In short, the link between energy access and development is undeniable. That is one basic reason why the EU has fully signed up to the UN Secretary-General's Sustainable Energy for All initiative, and hope to see it fully endorsed by the Rio+20 Summit. But there is another reason: namely our belief that the EU has a huge contribution to make in bringing the Sustainable Energy for All initiative to life. Commission of the European Communities (2011): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions Energy Roadmap 2050 In this Energy Roadmap 2050 the Commission explores the challenges posed by delivering the EU's decarbonisation objective while at the same time ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness. The task of developing post-2020 strategies is urgent. Energy investments take time to produce results. In this decade, a new investment cycle is taking place, as infrastructure built 30-40 years ago needs to be replaced. Acting now can avoid costly changes in later decades and reduces lock-in effects. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has shown the critical role of governments and underlined the need for urgent action; with the scenarios of the Energy Roadmap 2050 different possible pathways for Europe are analysed more in depth. Forecasting the long-term future is not possible. The scenarios in this Energy Roadmap 2050 explore routes towards decarbonisation of the energy system. All imply major changes in, for example, carbon prices, technology and networks. A number of scenarios to achieve an 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions implying some 85 % decline of energy-related CO2 emissions including from transport, have been examined. The scenario analysis undertaken is of an illustrative nature, examining the impacts, challenges and opportunities of possible ways of modernizing the energy system. They are not "either-or" options but focus on the common elements which are emerging and support longer-term approaches to investments. The energy sector produces the lion's share of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 by over 80 % will put particular pressure on energy systems. Stand: Juli 2012 10 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Its policy should not develop in isolation but take account of international developments, for example relating to carbon leakage and adverse effects on competitiveness. A potential trade-off between climate change policies and competitiveness continues to be a risk for some sectors especially in a perspective of full decarbonisation if Europe was to act alone. Europe cannot alone achieve global decarbonisation. The overall cost of investment depends strongly on the policy, regulatory and socio-economic framework and the economic situation globally. As Europe has a strong industrial base and needs to strengthen it, the energy system transition should avoid industry distortions and losses especially since energy remains an important cost factor for industry. Commission of the European Communities (2011): Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe Over the 20th century, the world increased its fossil fuel use by a factor of 12, whilst extracting 34 times more material resources. Today in the EU, each person consumes 16 tonnes of materials annually, of which 6 tonnes are wasted, with half going to landfill. Trends show, however, that the era of plentiful and cheap resources is over. Businesses are facing rising costs for essential raw materials and minerals, their scarcity and price volatility are having a damaging effect on the economy. Sources of minerals, metals and energy, as well as stocks of fish, timber, water, fertile soils, clean air, biomass, biodiversity are all under pressure, as is the stability of the climate system. Whilst demand for food, feed and fibre may increase by 70% by 2050, 60% of the world’s major ecosystems that help produce these resources have already been degraded or are used unsustainably. If we carry on using resources at the current rate, by 2050 we will need, on aggregate, the equivalent of more than two planets to sustain us, and the aspirations of many for a better quality of life will not be achieved. The Vision: By 2050 the EU's economy has grown in a way that respects resource constraints and planetary boundaries, thus contributing to global economic transformation. Our economy is competitive, inclusive and provides a high standard of living with much lower environmental impacts. All resources are sustainably managed, from raw materials to energy, water, air, land and soil. Climate change milestones have been reached, while biodiversity and the ecosystem services it underpins have been protected, valued and substantially restored. Resource efficient development is the route to this vision. It allows the economy to create more with less, delivering greater value with less input, using resources in a sustainable way and minimising their impacts on the environment. In practice, this requires that the stocks of all environmental assets from which the EU benefits or sources its global supplies are secure and managed within their maximum sustainable yields. It will also require Stand: Juli 2012 11 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö that residual waste is close to zero and that ecosystems have been restored, and systemic risks to the economy from the environment have been understood and avoided. A new wave of innovation will be required. This Roadmap sets the milestones, which illustrate what will be needed to put us on a path to resource efficient and sustainable growth. Stand: Juli 2012 12 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö OECD OECD (2009): Managing Risk in Agriculture; a holistic approach The source of risk in Agriculture are numerous and diverse, ranging from events related to climate and weather conditions to animal diseases; from changes in agriculture commodities prices to changes in fertilizer and other input prices; and from financial uncertainties to policy and regulatory risks. A diversity of hazards related to weather, pests and diseases determine production in ways that are outside the control of the farmer. Some risks are non-systematic. Their occurrence and the associated damage are unknown to a great extent. Many risks are correlated. Some risks are catastrophic because they very infrequent but cause a large amount of damage, and they are often systemic and non-systemic at the same time. Agricultural risks are not independent, but rather are linked both to each other and as part of a system that includes all available instruments, strategies and policies designed to manage risk. For risk reduction and mitigation, there are policy actions that are ex ante and other that are triggered or decided ex post. Most governments have some instruments to deal with catastrophic risks. A holistic approach is thus necessary. This book examines the current magnitude and characteristics of riskrelated policies in agriculture and what is known about the quantitative size of agricultural risks. It looks at the on-farm, off-farm, and market instruments available to manage risk, and it explains how the holistic approach helps clarify the role of governments. OECD (2011): Managing Risk in Agriculture; Policy Assessment and Design This book examines the implications of risk management for policy in agriculture. Opening with a chapter on risk management principles and guidelines for policy design in agriculture, the book goes on to look at quantitative analysis of risk and then at policy in various countries. OECD (2012): OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies; Future Global Shocks Improving risk governance Never before have global risks seemed so complex, the stakes so high, and the need for international cooperation to deal with them so apparent. The awareness of risk management in government and the private sector has risen dramatically in recent years. Large-scale disasters have been recognised as challenges to public policy, usually at the national or Stand: Juli 2012 13 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö regional level. Global leaders are acutely aware that systemic shock could severely challenge economic recovery, social cohesion and even political stability. Unanticipated events such as natural disasters, failures in key technical systems or malicious attacks could disrupt the complex world economic system and produce shocks that propagate around the world with devastating effects on society and economy. OECD (2012): Emerging Risks in the 21st Century An Agenda for Action The 21st Century has so far witnessed a host of large-scale disasters in various parts of the world including: windstorms, flooding, new diseases infesting both, humans and animals, terrorist attacks and major disruptions to critical infrastructures. It is not just the nature of major risks that seems to be changing, but also the context in which risks are evolving as well as society’s capacity to manage them. This book explores the implications of these developments for economy and society in the 21st century, focussing in particular on the potentially significant increase in the vulnerability of major systems. It concentrates on five large risk clusters: natural disasters, technological accidents, infectious diseases, food safety, terrorism, identifies the challenges facing OECD countries and sets out recommendations for governments and the private sector as to how the management of emerging systemic risks might be improved. The themes are: Emerging systemic risks, Risk assessment, Risk prevention, Emergency management, Recovery issues. OECD (2011): OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 This is the seventeenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the seventh co-edition prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and, for the first time, the fisheries sector over the 2011-20 period. This edition also includes an evaluation of recent developments, key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. The projections are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD and non-OECD countries. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the Stand: Juli 2012 14 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö projections. In the context of the G20 discussions on agriculture, a section of the report is devoted this year to the policy responses to price volatility. OECD (2011): World Energy Outlook 2011 World Energy Outlook brings together the latest data, policy developments, and the experience of another year to provide robust analysis and insight into global energy markets, today and for the next 25 years. This edition of the International Energy Agency flagship World Energy Outlook publication gives the latest energy demand and supply projections for different future scenarios, broken down by county, fuel and sector. It also gives special focus to the role of coal in an emissionsconstrained world, the implications of a possible delay in oil and gas sector investment, how high-carbon infrastructure “lock-in” is making the 2°C climate change goal more challenging, the scale of fossil fuel subsidies and support for renewable energy and their impact, and what a rapid slowdown in the use of nuclear power would mean for the global energy landscape. OECD (2012): Studies on Water Meeting the Water Reform Challenge The need to reform water policies is as urgent as ever. Water is essential for economic growth, human health, and the environment. Yet governments around the world face significant challenges in managing their water resources effectively. The problems are multiple and complex: billions of people are still without access to safe water and adequate sanitation; competition for water is increasing among the different uses and users; and major investment is required to maintain and improve water infrastructure in OECD and nonOECD countries. Despite progress on many fronts, governments around the world are still confronted with the need to reform their existing water policies in order to meet current objectives and future challenges. Building on the water challenges identified by the OECD Environment Outlook to 2050, this report examines three fundamental areas that need to be addressed whatever reform agendas are pursued by governments: financing of the water sector; the governance and institutional arrangements that are in place; and coherence between water policies and policies in place in other sectors of the economy. The report provides governments with practical advice and policy tools to pursue urgent reform in their water sectors. Stand: Juli 2012 15 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö OECD (2011): Green Growth Studies; Food and Agriculture As part of the OECD Green Growth Strategy, this new series aims to provide in-depth reviews of the green growth issues faced by different sectors. The agriculture and fisheries sectors have an important role to play in contributing to greener growth, in particular through facilitating the uptake of green technologies and management practices and reducing waste in the food chain. This will involve a range of policies, including the reform of environmentally harmful subsidies that distort efficient resource use; freer international trade; shifting towards targeted policies that will support poor and vulnerable farmers; rewarding the provision of ecosystem services; and encouraging Research and Development, technologies and management practices that improve the productivity of resource use. Framing appropriate “greening” policies is also a major governance issue which requires examining the incentives and disincentives generated by policies, as well as the regulatory and institutional framework more broadly. OECD (2012): Green Growth Studies; Energy Global demand for energy is increasing rapidly, because of population and economic growth, especially in emerging market economies. While accompanied by greater prosperity, rising demand creates new challenges. Energy security concerns can emerge as more consumers require ever more energy resources. And higher consumption of fossil fuel leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), which contributes to global warming. The Green Growth Strategy encompasses both policy recommendations to make economic growth “greener” and a set of indicators to monitor progress green growth. The Green Growth Strategy is first and foremost about implementing change and achieving a common purpose: a world that is stronger, cleaner, and fairer. A large scale transformation of the global energy sector is possible, although it will require significant investment. Global emission could be halved by 2050, using existing and emerging technologies. Moving economies in a greener direction will foster broad benefits. Green growth can reduce the burden on land, air and water resources while creating expanded opportunities for gains in productivity, quality of life and social equity. The OECD Green Growth Strategy aims to provide concrete recommendations and measurement tools, including indicators, to support countries’ efforts to achieve economic growth and development, while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which well-being relies. The strategy proposes a flexible policy framework that can be tailored to different country circumstances and stages of development. This report was coordinated Stand: Juli 2012 16 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö with the International Energy Agency (IEA). This report looks at the role of the energy sector in moving towards a green growth model and the policies to facilitate the transition. Together with innovation, going green can be a long-term driver for economic growth, through, for example, investing in renewable energy and improved efficiency in the use of energy and materials. OECD (2011): Fostering Productivity and Competitiveness in Agriculture This report reviews economic concepts of innovation, research and development, productivity and competitiveness, and their linkages. It then discusses evidence on developments in productivity and competitiveness in the agricultural and food processing sectors and on the relationship between agricultural productivity and farm size, factor intensity, farm specialisation, human capital, consumer demand, the natural environment, investments in general infrastructures and innovation, research and development, regulations, and agricultural policies. It describes developments in public and private investments in agricultural innovation, research and development and outlines their positive impact on productivity growth. Finally, it suggests an “innovation systems” approach would help understand better how innovation translates into productivity growth. OECD (2011): Challenges for Agricultural Research As the world has changed during the past 50 years, so has agriculture. And so has agricultural research, which continues to confront new challenges, from food security to ecological concerns to land use issues. Indeed, as Guy Paillotin, the former president of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) has noted, agricultural research “has reached new heights in biology and is exploring other disciplines. It is forever changing, as are the needs of the society”. The changing challenges faced by agricultural research were examined in depth at a conference organised by the OECD’s Co-operative Research Programme on Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems. Participants came from all agricultural sectors and included farmers, industry, scientists and decision makers, as well as other stake holders. This publication presents the twenty papers delivered at the conference. They highlight recent major progress in agricultural research outcomes and address the challenges that lie ahead. The main themes, Vision for the future: Coping with pressures on natural resources (water and soil) Delivering agricultural landscapes for production and biodiversity outcomes Competition in Agriculture for food, fibre and fuel Food safety today and tomorrow: the challenges in changing food and farming practices Animal biotechnology in the USA Stand: Juli 2012 17 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö OECD (2012): OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 Humanity has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the past decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970. This growth, however, has been accompanied by environmental pollution and natural resource depletion. The current growth model and the mismanagement of natural assets could ultimately undermine human development. The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 asks “What will the next four decades bring?” Based on joint modelling by the OECD and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it looks forward to the year 2050 to find out what demographic and economic trends might mean for the environment if the world does not adopt more ambitious green policies. It also looks at what policies could change that picture for the better. This Outlook focuses on four areas: climate change, biodiversity, freshwater and health impacts of pollution. These four key environmental challenges were identified by the previous Environmental Outlook to 2030 (OECD, 2008) as “Red Light” issues requiring urgent attention. OECD (2012): Climate Change and Agriculture Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation The report considers some of the most intense issues that underpin the economics of addressing climate change impacts in the agricultural sector, specifically, projected impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, adaptation responses to these scenarios, and the mitigation of sector greenhouse gas emissions. The report describes current knowledge on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and related resources, examines the limits of the knowledge on the mechanism that translate climate change into potentially serious impacts on food production, water stress, and ultimately food security. While governments throughout the world are assessing the diverse threats posed by climate change, the impacts on agriculture have been identified as potentially the most serious in terms of numbers of people affected and the severity of impacts on those least able to cope. Climate factors constitute some of the main constraints on crop and livestock production. The nature and implications of adaptive response options are either autonomous (private) or planned. The report then considers the question of emissions mitigation across the sector and associated questions raised by the need for agriculture to play a part in mitigation obligations. In the case of both adaptation and mitigation, policy responses need to be informed by effectiveness and efficiency considerations. Agriculture is having to adapt to significant impacts of climate change, while at the same time providing food for a growing population. Meeting Stand: Juli 2012 18 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö climate change, food security and trade commitments presents both challenges and opportunities for the agri-food sector. Agriculture is one of the few sectors that can both contribute to mitigation and sequestration of carbon emissions and accounting for agriculture’s carbon footprint is necessary, particularly if agriculture is included in greenhouse gas reduction commitments. However, the range and variability of estimates, and the complexity and uncertainty of accounting for indirect land use change remain to be resolved. Policies will play a role in enhancing the ability of agriculture to adapt to climate change, while also contributing to other environmental goals. In 2004 agriculture directly contributed about 14% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), although scientific uncertainty suggests it could be much higher. Land use, land use change and forestry account for a further 17%. Global GHG emissions by sector: Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change Projections to 2050 suggest both an increase in global mean temperatures and increased weather variability, with implications for the type and distribution of agricultural production worldwide. Climate change will also worsen the living conditions for many who are already vulnerable, particularly in developing countries because of lack of assets and adequate insurance coverage. These impacts highlight key policy issues, including the need to produce more food for an increasing population. Projections of more than 9 billion people in 2050 suggest that food production will need to double from current levels. Impact of climate change on OECD agriculture Stand: Juli 2012 19 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö At the same time, in order to limit future global warming to a 2°C temperature increase as recommended by IPCC, anthropogenic GHG emissions will have to decrease globally by at least 50% by 2050 from 1990 levels. Agriculture is not currently subject to emissions caps, although several OECD countries are already implementing mitigation action plans. In addition to reducing its own emissions, carbon sequestration in agricultural soils can play an important role in offsetting emissions from other sectors. Some agricultural GHG mitigation options are cost competitive with a number of non-agricultural options in achieving longterm climate objectives. Quantifying GHG emissions from agricultural activities is complex. First, the atomistic nature of production (many individual farmers) in a wide range of geographic and climatic conditions means that emissions are not only highly variable but also difficult and costly to measure precisely. Second, there continues to be a great deal of scientific uncertainty as GHG emissions from agriculture are subject to a complex interplay of many factors such as climate, soil type, slope, and production practices. Accounting for the indirect land use changes arising from agricultural production is another important challenge. The recent global surge in food prices highlighted the importance of agricultural policies for world food and energy markets. In particular, the links between production of biofuels from feedstock (in many cases subsidised), consequent land use changes, and food prices demonstrate the importance of foreseeing the range of consequences. Adaptation While some regions of the world may benefit from improved conditions, the overall effect of climate change is nonetheless expected to be negative for global agricultural production if no action is taken. Increased Stand: Juli 2012 20 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere already lock-in a certain amount of climate change. Moreover, given the long time-lags that will be required for GHG mitigation efforts to have an impact, adaptation will have to occur. This may range from altering farm management practices to adoption of new varieties, crops, and animal breeds more appropriate to future climate conditions. As agricultural production increases, resource constraints, particularly water, will become tighter. Agriculture globally accounts for about 70% of the world’s freshwater withdrawals (45% in OECD countries). Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal timing of rainfall and snow pack melt and result in a higher incidence and severity of floods and droughts. Both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture will need to be managed more sustainably to reduce resulting production risks. Mitigation Of the options to reduce GHG emissions in agriculture using currently available technologies, significant mitigation can be achieved through improved cropland and grazing land management, restoration of degraded lands, and land use change (e.g. agro-forestry). Emissions from livestock production can be reduced through improved nutrition and better management of manure. In addition, crop and pasture lands can sequester significant amounts of carbon, and therefore contribute to offsetting emissions from other sources, while improving soil quality and health. More research is needed, notably to determine: · The technical and the economic potential of various mitigation and sequestration options, including through life cycle analysis · How the pressure of indirect land use can be addressed with second generation biofuels · How emissions of GHG from crop and livestock production can be reduced. Policy response Government policy can play an important role in maintaining a viable agriculture in the face of climate change. Reforms of agricultural policies, in particular the shift to decoupling, have reduced specific commodityrelated production distortions. Future reforms might better target specific environmental outcomes, such as encouraging production techniques with low GHG emissions or that minimise them. Mitigation and adaptation approaches will need to be strengthened. These are likely to be more effective if they are embedded in longer-term strategies linked to agricultural policy reform, risk management, research and development, and market-based approaches. Examples include crop and disaster insurance, research into crop varieties and breeds better adapted to changing climatic conditions, and incentives for more efficient use of water. Stand: Juli 2012 21 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö In responding to the future challenges for agriculture of addressing climate change and increasing food demand, a coherent policy approach is needed that: Ensures a stable policy environment that sends clear signals to consumers and producers about the costs and benefits of GHG mitigating/sequestering activities. Provides a real or implicit price of carbon to create incentives for producers and consumers to invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes. Fosters the application of existing technologies and invest in R&D for new technologies to reduce GHG emissions and increase productivity. Builds capacity to better understand and measure the GHG impact of agriculture for monitoring progress relative to national and international climate change goals. Facilitates adaptation by increasing producer resilience to climate change, and that compensate the most vulnerable groups. Following Copenhagen, the OECD will continue to examine the role of land use change in agriculture (and the links with forestry), develop tools to analyse the design and implementation of cost effective policies so that agriculture can adapt to and mitigate climate change, and facilitate the sharing of experiences amongst countries on policies to address climate change in agriculture. OECD (2012): Farmer Behaviour, Agricultural Management and Climate Change The study examines the broad range of factors driving farm management decisions that can improve the environment, including drawing on the experiences of OECD countries. It identifies policy options that would contribute to a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the context of climate change. Farmers have a long record of adapting to climate change. The evolving nature of the present changes could, however, have a significant impact on agriculture that will challenge farmers to adapt even further as regards land use and production practices. Moreover, agriculture is expected to reduce its GHG emissions and to offset CO2 emissions from other sectors through carbon sequestration. These actions are closely related to farm management practices. It is therefore important to understand how the cultural and social factors in addition to policy incentives facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions. Drawing on the experiences of OECD countries, this report identifies policy options that would contribute to a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the context of climate change. Stand: Juli 2012 22 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö FAO FAO (2009): How to feed the world 2050; High-level expert forum In the first half of this century, as the world´s population grows to around 9 billion, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double while, increasingly, crops may also be used for bioenergy and other industrial purposes. New and traditional demand for agricultural produce will thus put growing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts: adapting to and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping preserve natural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining a high level of biodiversity. As though this were not challenging enough, in most regions fewer people will be living in rural areas and even fewer will be farmers. They will need new technologies to grow more from less land, with fewer hands. The demand for food is expected to continue to grow as a result both of population growth and rising incomes. Demand for cereals yearly by 2050 (for food and animal feed) is projected to reach some 3.000.000.000 tonnes Annual cereal production will have to grow by almost 1.000.000.000 tonnes (2 bn tonnes per year today), Annual meat production by over 200.000.000 tonnes to reach a total yearly production of 470 million tonnes in 2050. The production of biofuels could also increase the demand for agricultural commodities, depending on energy prices and government policies. Using less water and at the same time producing more food will be the key to addressing water scarcity problems. Water scarcity could be made more acute by changing rainfall patterns resulting from climate change. Stand: Juli 2012 23 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö United Kingdom: BIS-Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Foresight DEFRA CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Global Food Security Reports, position statements and strategies Climate Change Act Committee on Climate Change The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is an expert, independent, statutory public body, created to assess how the UK can best achieve its emissions reduction targets for 2020 and 2050 and to assess progress towards the statutory carbon budgets. It was created by the Climate Change Act 2008 and plays a crucial role in the UK’s effort to tackle climate change. In summary, the Climate Change Act 2008 requires that the CCC will advise on: the level of each five-year carbon budget, in order to meet the statutory 2050 and 2020 targets how much effort should be made towards meeting these from the UK and overseas how much effort should be made by the part of the economy covered by cap and trade schemes (the traded sector), and by the rest of the economy (the non traded sector). An Adaptation Sub-Committee of the CCC provides independent scrutiny of Government in relation to: the preparation of the UK risk assessment, in particular its methodology and conclusions the implementation of the Government’s Adaptation Programme (for England and reserved matters), highlighting areas where the Government is doing well, and areas where it is falling short on achieving changes any relevant topic suggested by the Government and the Devolved Administrations Role of the Committee on Climate Change: Advice on carbon budgets On 1 December 2008, the Committee provided its advice to the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on the optimum level of the first three Carbon budgets, consistent with achieving the 2020 and 2050 targets and fulfilling the UK’s international obligations. Stand: Juli 2012 24 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The CCC’s report, Building a low carbon economy: the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change, recommended the UK reduce emissions of all greenhouse gases by at least 34 percent by 2020 relative to 1990 levels. This should increase to 42 percent relative to 1990 (31 percent relative to 2005) once a global deal to reduce emissions is struck. In making its recommendations, the CCC balanced a range of criteria, including economic, environmental and social factors. The Climate Change Act includes a list of factors the CCC must consider when recommending the level of each budget: scientific knowledge about climate change technology relevant to climate change economic circumstances – in particular, the likely impact of the decision on the economy and the competitiveness of particular sectors of the economy fiscal circumstances – in particular, the likely impact of the decision on taxation, public spending and public borrowing social circumstances – in particular, the likely impact of the decision on fuel poverty energy policy – in particular, the likely impact of the decision on energy supplies and the carbon and energy intensity of the economy differences in circumstances between England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland circumstances at European and international level the estimated amount of reportable emissions from international aviation and international shipping for the budgetary period or periods in question The CCC is the first body of its kind bringing together different strands of expertise from the fields of climate science and policy, economics, business competitiveness and financial management. It draws on existing information and undertakes its own analysis to provide expert advice to ministers. It may also be asked to give advice to Ministers on specific climate change matters as and when requested. (unsere Anmerkung dazu: Entwicklung einer Kommunikationsstrategie für die Ernährungssicherungs-Risiken für Zielgruppen wie politische Entscheidungsträger, Hersteller und Verbraucher. das ist was wir unter operative Umsetzung des Projektes meinen könnten betreffend den Punkt 3 der Ziele des Projektes) Stand: Juli 2012 25 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Bewertung der Risiken des Klimawandels für Großbritannien (2012): Vortrag der UK-Regierung vor dem britischen Parlament am 25. Januar 2012 Das Parlament beauftragte die Regierung Ihrer Majestät mit der Ausarbeitung der Bewertung der Risiken des Klimawandels für Großbritannien, und um Berichterstattung darüber vor dem 26. Januar 2012. Die Regierung Ihrer Majestät legte eine sehr umfangreiche Studie dem Parlament am 25. Januar 2012 vor. Die Studie untersuchte 700 potenzielle Einflussfaktoren des Klimawandels auf Großbritannien. Detaillierte Untersuchung wurde in Einbeziehung von 100 der 700 Einflussfaktoren auf 11 Schlüsselsektoren durchgeführt. Dabei wurden die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit von Einflüssen, das Ausmaß der potenziellen Auswirkungen, und die Dringlichkeit, die für Maßnahmen für die Vermeidung der Auswirkungen dieser negativen Einflussfaktoren des Klimawandels notwendig sind, analysiert. Die Schlüsselbereiche für die Vorlage für die Berichterstattung für das Parlament waren: Land- und Forstwirtschaft Wirtschaft im Allgemeinen Industrie und Dienstleistungen Gesundheit und Wohlbefinden Umwelt, bauliche Anlagen und Infrastruktur Die staatliche Administration bekommt dadurch starke Grundlagen um sich entsprechend auf den Klimawandel vorzubereiten, und geeignete Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, um die Risiken, die auf uns zukommen, konkret auf die Wirtschaft, Gesellschaft und Umwelt, in den Griff zu bekommen. Über die Detailanalyse wurden 11 Sektorberichte und zusätzlich für jeden Sektor jeweils eine sehr schön farbig gestaltete Zusammenfassung veröffentlicht: Landwirtschaft Biodiversität Bauanlagen Wirtschaft im Allgemeinen, Industrie und Dienstleistungen Energiesektor Überschwemmungen und Erosion der Küstenlandschaften Forstwirtschaft Gesundheitswesen Meere und Fischerei Transportwesen Wasser Stand: Juli 2012 26 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Darüber hinaus wurden Spezialausgaben für die vier Länder des Vereinigten Königreichs veröffentlicht. Für die lokalen Behörden, Wirtschaftsteilnehmer und die Bevölkerung, interessierte gemeinnützige Organisation (public-private partnership) wurden spezielle Informationspakete zur Verfügung gestellt. Die ausführliche Dokumentation über die Risikobewertung des Klimawandels für die Landwirtschaft umfasst 252 Seiten. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) (25 January 2012) The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. Information on this page includes: The CCRA has reviewed the evidence for over 700 potential impacts of climate change in a UK context. Detailed analysis was undertaken for over 100 of these impacts across 11 key sectors, on the basis of their likelihood, the scale of their potential consequences and the urgency with which action may be needed to address them. Producing the CCRA has involved a high degree of consultation and review. The outputs provide an evidence base that can be used by central Government and Devolved Administrations in identifying priorities for action and appropriate adaptation measures that will be required to minimise risks to our economy, environment and society. Although the primary customer for this work is central Government and the Devolved Administrations, the outputs from the CCRA are also of value to other public and private sector organisations. This independent analysis was funded by UK Government and Devolved Governments and has been delivered through a consortium of organisations led by HR Wallingford. The outputs have been extensively peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts, an independent Stand: Juli 2012 27 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö international peer review panel, and have also been scrutinised by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change. We want your views – help develop the National Adaptation Programme We will be working with businesses, civil society and local government to develop the UK’s first National Adaptation Programme to maintain the resilience of the UK to climate change and changing weather. Please make the time to contribute – whether it’s sharing an innovative method, or a small change that would make a big difference – via this dedicated area on our website. This is the start of a dialogue that will continue throughout 2012. The CCRA UK Government Report This report sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report – Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure – and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle some of the risks in each area. It highlights the constraints of the CCRA analysis and provides advice on how to take account of the uncertainty within the analysis. Underpinning evidence for the CCRA The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has allowed for comparison of over 100 risks (prioritised from an initial list of over 700) from a number of disparate sectors based on the magnitude of the impact and confidence in the evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is using a consistent method and set of climate projections to look at current and future risks and opportunities. The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages involving expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable, repeatable methodology that is not dependent on changes in long term plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA. The results, with the exception of population growth where this is relevant, do not include societal change in assessing future risks, either from non-climate related change, for example economic growth, or developments in new technologies; or future responses to climate risks Stand: Juli 2012 28 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö such as future or planned Government policies or private adaptation investment plans. Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust ‘baseline’ against which the effects of different plans and policies can be more easily assessed. However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essential to consider that Government and key organisations are already taking action in many areas to minimise climate change risks and these interventions need to be considered when assess where further action may be best directed or needed. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report The Evidence Report provides an overview of climate change risks and opportunities based on the analyses described in the Sector Reports and other sources of information. It is intended to provide information to policy makers on the risks and opportunities from climate change and the vulnerability of the UK. The analysis is presented in 5 themes: Agriculture and Forestry; Business, Industry and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Buildings and Infrastructure; Natural Environment. Climate change risks in each theme are presented in terms of the range of potential magnitude of the risk, how magnitude varies over time and the overall confidence in the findings of the assessment. The Evidence Report has been extensively peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts, an independent international peer review panel, and have also been scrutinised by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change. Reports and Summaries for each of the eleven sectors The underpinning evidence for the CCRA was collected using eleven ‘sectors’ or research areas. The background Sector Reports describe a wide range of potential risks in each sector, followed by a more detailed analysis of selected risks that were judged to be the most important. Climate Change Partnership Information Packs: Summary of Climate Change Risks Stand: Juli 2012 29 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö To coincide with the publication of the CCRA, and given the importance of adaptation action at a local level, Defra commissioned the nine Climate Change Partnerships across England to produce information packs to highlight key risks and opportunities from climate change and what they mean across a range of sectors within each area. Drawing on information within the CCRA and other local evidence, the Climate Change Partnership’s analysis illustrates what climate change may mean at the local level for people, businesses, community and charitable groups, local authorities, and other organisations across key sectors. It also highlights what is currently being done to address risks and where there is a strong case for greater local action. Stand: Juli 2012 30 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Stand: Juli 2012 31 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Stand: Juli 2012 32 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Stand: Juli 2012 33 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Stand: Juli 2012 34 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=CCRAfortheAgricultureSector.pdf Diese ausführliche Dokumentation enthält 252 Seiten, unten daraus zur Kostprobe die: Wie erwartet, im Mittelpunkt des ersten Satzes steht die absolute Bedeutung der Photosynthesis, wie wir bereits diese in mehreren anderen Beschreibungen über climate change gesehen haben. Wir können dazu sagen: nicht nur die UK, alle anderen Länder und Kontinente werden die Anstrengungen, wie in der UK bereits begonnen, zu eigen machen müssen, naturgemäß auch AT. Global food security (2011): Future research challenges Providing access to safe, nutritious and affordable food to the growing global population is a huge challenge. Stand: Juli 2012 35 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö To achieve this aim, scientists will need to work together, across disciplines, to overcome some major research challenges. The good news is that certain organisations, such as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, an alliance of international agricultural centres that aim to achieve sustainable food security and reduce poverty through research-related activities, have stated that with appropriate funding a doubling of food production is possible. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Enhancing photosynthesis Reducing environmental impact Increasing nutritional benefits Defeating exotic diseases Tougher robust crops Exploiting genome advances Improving wheat Understanding diet and health 1 Enhancing photosynthesis Ultimately all the food we consume – and all life on Earth – relies on the conversion of carbon dioxide into sugars using energy from sunlight through photosynthesis. Improvements in the yields of major crops could be achieved if scientists can understand how to improve the efficiency of photosynthetic pathways and increase production using the same amount of sunlight. Not all plants have the same photosynthetic pathways. C3 carbon fixation is one of three biochemical mechanisms, along with C4 and CAM photosynthesis. Most plants use the C3 pathway, but around 25-30M years ago the C4 system evolved many times (an example of convergent evolution); it is called C4 because the first product of CO2 fixation in C4 plants has four carbon atoms, rather than three as in C3 plants. C4 plants possess distinctive features, particularly in leaf anatomy and biochemistry, which lead to higher photosynthetic efficiency (especially in warm climates) and lower requirements for water. C4 plants dominate many tropical savannahs and grasslands and account for 30% of global terrestrial carbon fixation, even though only 5% of plant species use the C4 pathways. Some major agricultural grass species, such as maize, sugar cane, sorghum and millet, use C4 photosynthesis. Scientists are therefore keen to investigate the introduction of C4 pathways into cereals such as rice and wheat that use the less productive C3 metabolism through conventional breeding or genetic modification. It could provide massive Stand: Juli 2012 36 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö benefits in yield and save water – C3 plants lose 97% of the water taken up through their roots to transpiration and the C4 system raises water-use efficiency compared to the C3 type. 2 Reducing environmental impact Efforts are also needed to increase the sustainability of farming practices, which are responsible for 7% of total greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in the UK. Possible solutions include less ploughing, and instead covering the ground with organic residue such as straw to counter weed growth, or rotating crops. Known as conservation agriculture, this avoids damaging soil and releasing GHGs (from ploughing) and can conserve soil structure, nutrients, as well as saving energy. Another strategy includes incorporating nitrogen-fixing capability into nonleguminous plants. Nitrogen is vital for plant growth. Despite making up 79% of the Earth’s atmosphere it cannot be used by plants in that form and plant biomass is often limited by the amount of nitrogen (and phosphorus) they can obtain. This is the reason plants respond with significant extra growth when fertilisers are applied. A few plants have evolved symbiotic relationships with bacteria that convert (or ‘fix’) atmospheric nitrogen into a usable form. The roots of leguminous plants like peas and beans possess nodules filled with symbiotic bacteria that can convert the inert atmospheric form of nitrogen into compounds usable by plants – the result is that they need less nitrogen fertiliser than crops without the nodules. Soya and alfalfa are examples of other plants that have this ability. But what if you could understand the mechanism enough to cross the trait into wheat, rice or barley? The benefits could be enormous. Less fertiliser would be needed, which would save time, money, and the energy required to produce the fertiliser in the first place. This would lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and reduced runoff from fertilisers that can pollute aquatic habitats. Drought-tolerance in crops is also important for securing future harvests, especially as water becomes more scarce. Nearly three-quarters of the world’s fresh water that is abstracted for human use is used for irrigation in agriculture and the UN predicts that irrigation demands will increase by 50-100% by 2025. Stand: Juli 2012 37 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Principal mechanisms to make plants more tolerant to drought include improving water retention in roots, reducing water loss through leaves and changing plants’ reactions to lack of water. Both conventional breeding and genetic modfication (GM) techniques could help scientists enhance plants’ ability to withstand drought. 3 Increasing nutritional benefits As well as yield benefits and reducing fertiliser inputs, scientists are looking at the advantages of incorporating additional nutrients into crops, or improving the post-harvest processing characteristics of certain plants. Around 2013 a soya variety is set for launch designed to result in fewer unhealthy transfats after processing. A soya bean with higher amounts of omega-3, the fatty acid which can improve cardiovascular health, may also be on the way. Scientists at RRes have already developed oilseeds with increased omega-3 content. All plants contain omega-3 fatty acids. However, not all omega-3 fatty acids possess the health benefits associated with the fish oils that are rich in a particular type called omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids. These long-chain omega-3 fatty acids are absent from higher plants; hence the rationale for trying to incorporate them into crops. At present, omega-3 is harvested from oily fish like sardines and mackerel, which in turn gain their omega-3 from algae. Inserting the relevant genetic material from algae into soya beans could reduce pressure on some fish stocks. Such products could also play a part in providing sustainable feed for farmed fish, reducing the inefficient use of wild-caught fish as a feedstock. It remains to be seen, however, how well consumers will take to GM omega-3-enriched products. 4 Defeating exotic diseases The food security challenge cannot be met by just improving plants. Livestock are valuable assets to developed and developing countries and convert inedible resources such as grass and some waste products into items that people can eat. In many developing countries wealth is measured by head of cattle, sheep or goats, and diseases like rinderpest have in the past devastated livestock numbers across large swathes of Europe and Africa. Although rinderpest is on the verge of eradication, other diseases such as bluetongue are endemic in some countries and threaten the health of animals and economies in others, including the UK Stand: Juli 2012 38 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö But unlike rinderpest and bluetongue some diseases have no vaccine. African Swine Fever (ASF) is one of them, and it poses a major risk to pig industries across the world. There is no cure or vaccine, and the highly contagious virus causes a haemorrhagic fever with an extreme mortality rate that can reach 100%. 5 Tougher robust crops Optimising crop yields involves trade-offs. Tall plants with large canopies capture light efficiently and shade the ground which prevent weeds growing on the same patch. However, bigger is not always better. Tall, fast-growing plants shadow their own lower leaves, can fall over (lodge) in the wind and rain, and they put more of their energy into inedible stem than edible grain. Today’s wheat cultivars are much shorter than they were one hundred years ago (try looking at the height of wheat in old paintings – it used to be as tall as the person harvesting it. Modern ‘semi-dwarf’ plants are less likely to lodge and more energy is channelled to the grain rather than the stalk. These varieties of wheat, rice and sorghum formed the basis of the increased yields of the ‘green revolution’ because they responded well to the increased availability of fertilisers The semi-dwarf form is a natural variant of wheat that humans have taken advantage of; the gene responsible was identified and characterised only 10 years ago at the John Innes Centre (JIC, an institute of BBSRC). Currently, JIC and RRes scientists are collaborating to identify additional dwarfing gene variants that may provide increased tolerance to an increasingly unpredictable environment. 6 Exploiting genome advances Many advances and major breakthroughs will come from reading the DNA code of organisms and deciphering the genetic mechanisms of traits that manage plants’ reactions to stresses such as disease and drought. To this end, the Genome Analysis Centre (TGAC, an institute of BBSRC) was opened in 2009 to further research aimed at understanding the genetic makeup of organisms and the genetic differences that exist between individuals. Understanding the genetic mechanisms underlying the synthesis of plant compounds could allow breeders to develop crops with higher amounts of beneficial antioxidants. The plant pigments lycopene and anthocyanin (a flavonoid) both have anti-cancer properties, and could be more concentrated in tomatoes for example. Stand: Juli 2012 39 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The use of genome analysis to understand the behaviour of plant pigments could also enhance crop production. 7 Improving wheat The International wheat genome sequencing consortium is toiling to decode the wheat genome. It’s a huge task – the species that is used for bread-making, Triticum aestivum, contains three sets of chromosomes and has five times more DNA than the human genome. Decoding the wheat genome will help scientists in many tasks. For example, to understand why crossing wheat with other species is difficult – a genetic mechanism prevents its chromosomes from swapping genes with anything except other wheat plants. However, scientists at JIC have identified a gene, Ph1, which allows chromosomes to cross. Identifying ways to temporarily block the action of the Ph1 gene could allow traits from related plants, such as wild wheats and grasses, to be incorporated into wheat. This would be a huge leap forward and enable a whole range of novel traits to be added, such as drought and salt tolerance, increased biomass and nitrogen-use efficiency, and resistance to insects and fungi. JIC scientists are also determining the best characteristics for winter wheat, which is sown in the autumn. Wheat responds to day length and temperature, and these responses can be adjusted to match flowering and maturation times to predicted future climates that have different temperature and rainfall patterns. 8 Understanding diet and health The food we do produce needs to be as healthy as it can be. Looking to the future, there is a lot that we have to learn about what food does to our bodies, besides providing energy and essential nutrients. The embryonic field of nutrigenomics – the study of how nutrition interacts with the genome and gene expression – could provide valuable new information on how different foods (and nutrients within food) affect metabolism, patterns of gene expression and our overall health and well being. Nutrigenomics will be partnered by other genomic technologies including metabolomics – which involves the rapid measurement of many smallmolecule metabolites. The metabolome represents all metabolites in a cell, tissue or organism, and advanced metabolic profiling aims to provide a snapshot of the physiology of any cell and its many biochemical pathways. In time, new fields such as these could provide insights that Stand: Juli 2012 40 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö might improve our food, influence which foods we choose to eat and lead to deeper understanding of how we respond to foodstuffs. [email protected] Food Policy, ELSEVIER (2011): Fertiliser availability in a resource-limited world: Production and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus The scientists C.J. Dawson and J. Hilton searched in the field of the both most important fertilisers nitrogen and phosphorus regarding to the availability in the future. Fertilise soils are key to sustainable commercialscale production of crops. Most soils are requiring periodic but regular treatments with macronutrients N, P and K. In quantitative terms it is the role even of these three macronutrients in commercial agriculture that predominates and hence is a critical dependency in any strategy designed to result in food security. Global population growth, which has accelerated markedly in the past 150 years, correlates closely to the discovery and development of industrial-scale fertiliser production. If the commercial manufacturing process for phosphatic fertiliser had not been discovered in the 1840s, life in the UK and in other industrialised countries would have become unsustainable. 2050 the world population may have grown to 9,3 bn, all of whom will depend on a sustainable solution to the supply of nutrients to soils to replace those removed at harvest. Of N, P, K and S, the four major nutrient inputs required for the productive agriculture, K and S are not anticipated to be in limiting supply, nor is there a significant energy requirement in their processing. N and P have critical and mutually dependent roles. The finite and depleting nature both of the energy sources currently used in the production of ammonia for N fertilisers and of known global phosphate rock reserves possess overwhelming attention. While the timescale of depletion is measurable over centuries rather than decades, timescales potentially at odds with present day-day commercial interests, new awareness of the need for resource conservation and sustainability invites us to consider ways of extending that timescale out by thousands of years, if not indefinitely. This objective will require a major change of thinking on the part of all stakeholders in the food production and consumption continuum, including the fertiliser industry. Among the unintended consequences of the successful agricultural policy during the past 50 years, mainly driven by the tremendous CAP, are the commoditisation of both food and fertilisers and a consequential breakdown in society`s understanding as to the true origins, and costs, of the food it eats. A major change of direction is required, starting with a rethink of food policy and the business model on Stand: Juli 2012 41 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö which the `farm to fork` supply chain rests. Fertiliser use is essential both in feeding the world and in the long-term management of productive land. Nitrogen and Phosphorus are both essential to the life of all higher plants and animals and neither is substitutable. They exhibit, however, two significant differences: The supply of N is effectively unlimited, P reserves are very limited, The life cycle of N can be measured in years, or at most a century or two, P is measured in millennia. Nitrogen: Calculations of the N flows in global agriculture estimated that 50 % of the world`s dietary protein now for feeding the 7 bn world population originated in the Haber-Bosch synthesis of ammonia. Logically and evidence based can be argued that world population growth since the early 20th century is largely sustained by the ready and affordable availability of N fixed by the Haber-Bosch process. The production of N fertiliser accounts for over 90 % of the total energy input into fertiliser production. Industrial production of reactive N is essential for feeding a large and increasing population, and the most efficient production method is methane-based. A long-term strategy for global food security depends critically on N availability, which in turn requires that adequate supplies of methane are reserved for this function. Phosphorus: The main reserves of phosphate rock are found in relatively few countries. The European Union possesses phosphate in a very limited quantity only in Finland. As know the main reserves are situated in Morocco, 51.000 Megatons, of the world global reserves at 60.000 Megatons. On the other side, Morocco is not really a supplier of high security in the future as we estimated it in our current project about food security under climate change in Austria. The anticipated time-frame of availability of the phosphate rock reserves is between 300 and 400 years. From the perspective of long-term security, whether the supplies will last for 400 or for 800 years is somewhat academic. Phosphorus is essential for all the life forms and is unsubstitutable; measured even against recorded human history, a perspective of 400-800 years into the future is very short. 85 % of the processed phosphorus is used as agricultural fertiliser and as a mineral source for animal nutrition. Eventually the supply will become scarce, to the point where this scarcity has the potential to lead to international conflict. This very localised distribution only heightens the risk of dispute. The use and husbanding of these resources through better agricultural practices, but also from recycling and reuse of phosphorus in waste streams, is a matter requiring global cooperation before phosphorus becomes seriously scarce. Overall, there is a pressing need to quantify accurately the phosphorus flows and fluxes onto, within and off farms, both nationally and globally, especially if an evidence-based policy and planning approach to managing phosphorus is to be followed. Stand: Juli 2012 42 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Foresight (2010): Government Office for Science, Government Chef Chief Scientific Advisor Foresight advises Government about how to ensure today`s decisions are robust to an uncertain future Annual Review 2010 Die Abteilung für Zukunftsforschung des UK-Forschungsministeriums hat ihren Jahresbericht 2010 vorgelegt, und behandelt darin gleich auf Platz eins die Aussichten der Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit in Richtung 2050. Der Bericht mit dem Titel „Die Zukunft der weltweiten Landwirtschaft und Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit“ geht der Frage nach, wie können 9 Milliarden Menschen mit Hilfe der nachhaltigen Landwirtschaft gesund im Jahr 2050 ernährt werden. Die Forscher stellen gleich zu Beginn klar: wir sind an einem nie da gewesenen Wendepunkt der Menschheitsgeschichte angelangt. Klimawandel, Energieknappheit, Rohstoffknappheit, Wasserknappheit sind die wichtigsten bestimmenden Faktoren auf der Angebotsseite der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion. Auf der Nachfrageseite ist die wichtigste treibende Bestimmungsgröße die Veränderung der Konsumgewohnheiten, vor allem das zunehmende Verlangen der neuen Besserbestellten in den großen aufstrebenden Ökonomien, vor allem in Asien, nach hochwertigem Eiweiß in Form von Milch- und Fleischprodukten. Diese beiden Faktoren zusammen, als auch das Angebot, als auch die Nachfrage, fordern die Sicherung der nachhaltigen Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit enorm heraus. Obwohl die Nahrungsmittelversorgung für die meisten Menschen auf der Erde funktioniert, in zwei kritischen Bereichen versagt das jetzige System. Die beschränkten Ressourcen der Erde werden überstrapaziert, und eine Milliarde Menschen, die ärmsten Bevölkerungsschichten in den ärmsten Ländern, leiden an Hunger und oft an Fehlernährung. Der Forschungsbericht weist darauf hin, dass sofortige und umfangreiche Aktionen im globalen Maßstab notwendig sind, um die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit der stetig (jährlich um 80 Millionen Menschen) wachsenden Weltbevölkerung zu sichern. Über die Erreichung der 7 Milliarden Grenze der Weltbevölkerung (7 bn day) und die Wachstumsprognosen der Weltbevölkerung in den nächsten Dekaden berichteten wir am 31. Oktober dieses Jahres. An dem Projekt Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit in Richtung 2050 haben mehr als 400 Experten aus 35 Ländern mitgearbeitet. Die Wissenschaftler ziehen in ihrem Bericht die folgenden Schlussfolgerungen: Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion muss nachhaltig werden, Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion muss sich dem Klimawandel anpassen, Stand: Juli 2012 43 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Die weltweite Landwirtschaft muss einen aktiven Beitrag zur Linderung der durch den Klimawandel verursachten Probleme leisten, Die Anstrengungen, um den Hunger zu besiegen, müssen verdoppelt werden. Die Wissenschaftler haben die folgenden fünf Herausforderungen identifiziert und analysiert: Nachhaltiges, in Einklang-Bringen des weltweiten Angebotes und der weltweiten Nachfrage der Nahrungsmittel, um sicher zu stellen, dass ausreichende Kaufkraft der Bevölkerung zur Verfügung steht, um das angebotene Nahrungsmittel zu leisten. Die weltweite Nahrungsmittelproduktion verbraucht zurzeit in nicht nachhaltiger Weise wesentlich schneller Ressourcen, als diese sich erneuern könnten. Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion verbraucht 70 % des auf der Welt jährlich zur Verfügung stehenden Süßwassers, und trägt direkt mit 10-12 % zu den jährlich entstehenden Treibhausgasemissionen bei. Das Angebot an landwirtschaftlichen Produkten muss in den nächsten 40 Jahren weltweit um 70 % wachsen, ohne dabei nennenswerte Neuflächen in die Produktion eingliedern zu können. Der Einsatz von Hochtechnologie, die Zurückhaltung beim Konsum, Abfallreduktion, Verbesserung der politischen Rahmenbedingungen und die allgemeine Bewusstseinsbildung über Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit müssen gestärkt werden. Sicherung ausreichender und stabiler Nahrungsmittel-Versorgung weltweit, verbunden mit dem Schutz der wirtschaftlich Schwächeren. Preisschwankungen sind für die Zukunft durch die Marktbedingungen auf dem Nahrungsmittelsektor weiterhin vorprogrammiert. Um starke Preisausschläge zu vermeiden, empfehlen die Forscher weitestgehende, aber gleichzeitig an internationale Vorgaben gebundene Marktliberalisierung, Aufbau gewisser Nahrungsmittel-Reserven und Sicherheitsnetze in den einzelnen Ländern für Produzenten und Konsumenten. Alle müssen ein Anrecht auf Zugang zu den Nahrungsmittel-Märkten haben, um den Hunger zu beenden. Eine Milliarde Menschen erleiden im Moment Hunger, eine weitere Milliarde Menschen sind unterernährt, weil das dritte Kriterium der Trias, Menge, Sicherheit, Qualität, nicht gesichert ist. In Kontrast dazu sind eine Milliarde Menschen weltweit stark übergewichtig. Die gesamte Nahrungsmittelkette muss ihren Beitrag zur Minderung des Klimawandels beisteuern. Wenn zu den vorhin erwähnten 10-12 % Treibhausgasemmission die ganze NahrungsmittelVerwertungskette, von der Vorleistungsindustrie bis zur Stand: Juli 2012 44 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Abfallverwertung, dazugezählt wird, dann betragen die Treibhausgasemmissionen des Sektors sogar mehr als 30 %. Die Erreichung von Nachhaltigkeit und die Minderung der Treibhausgasemmissionen sind eigentlich die beiden Seiten ein und derselben Medaille. Erhaltung der Biodiversität der Pflanzen und Tiere für zukünftige Generationen ist ein Imperativ. Die weltweite Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln muss rasant wachsen, es wird aber kaum mehr zusätzlich bebaubares Land dafür zur Verfügung stehen. Gleichzeitig dürfen die Eingriffe in das Ökosystem nicht zunehmen. Das alles zusammengenommen erfordert eine Intensivierung der Produktion mit dem gleichzeitigen Ausbau der Nachhaltigkeit mit enormen Investitionen in Wissenschaft und Technologie. Die anderen, alle hochinteressante Berichte beschäftigen sich mit den Themen: Die Zukunft der Technologie und Innovation. Die zukünftigen weltweiten Migrationsströme, die durch die Veränderung der Umweltbedingungen ausgelöst werden. Vier große Weltregionen wurden dabei in das Forschungsprojekt einbezogen, um mit internationalen und lokalen Forschergruppen und nationalen Regierungen innovative Ideen für die betroffenen Regionen zu entwickeln und Perspektiven zu analysieren. Der Einsatz der Informationstechnologie auf den Finanzmärkten. Internationale Dimensionen des Klimawandels. In diesem Projekt wird analysiert, welche Auswirkungen die weltweite Veränderung des Klimas auf Großbritannien zeigen wird. Die Zukunft der Raumplanung in Verbindung mit dem Weißbuch zum Umweltschutz und der Bewertung der nationalen Ecosysteme. BIS Department for Business Innovation & Skills Government Office for Science (2009): UK Cross-Government food research and innovation strategy The UK has a world leading science base which can contribute substantially to achieving the vision of the Government food strategy – Food 2030 – for a sustainable and secure food system, linking social, environmental, health and economic factors, and in developing the policies to deliver this. There are real challenges ahead for policy makers and researchers, and for the food industry from producers to retailers, with pressures on our food system set to increase in the decades ahead. Key initiatives highlighted in this Strategy include: sustainable and secure food system crop productivity Stand: Juli 2012 45 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö waste reduction GHG reduction Input to the ability of global food systems to feed the predicted future world population of 9 billion healthy and sustainable. Food Security (2012): Feeling the heat Plant scientists from Norwich Research Park are gathering evidence on the precise ways in which plants are affected by rising temperatures and falling rainfall levels. Their findings could show us if anything can be done to help crops cope with the increased risks from drought and disease. This documentation collects research to help plants cope with a changing climate. Less water means lower productivity, leaves grow more slowly and cereals produce smaller, lighter grains because the grain-filling period is reduced. Higher temperatures can also make plants more vulnerable to attack. Pests and diseases can become more virulent or are able to survive in new locations. Others become less virulent but the crops become more susceptible to their effects. Researchers at the John Innes Centre (JIC) are starting to unravel how plants respond to temperature and how their interactions with pests and diseases are likely to change. This knowledge may show us if it is possible to breed crop varieties that can to adapt to a changing climate. Rising temperatures and increasing drought may be the most obvious threats to agriculture posed by climate change, but the greatest threat to yields could actually be from pests and diseases. For example, some insect vectors are sensitive to cold and climate change could provide them with more opportunities to spread to new areas. The significance of this problem has only recently gained recognition and is an emerging area of research. JIC scientists are investigating how disease resistance in crops could be undermined and which diseases and insect pests might spread or become more virulent as temperatures rise. BIS – Foresight (2011): Global food and farming futures "How can a future global population of 9 billion people all be fed healthily and sustainably?" The project will look out to 2050 and take a global view of the food system; considering issues of demand, production and supply as well as broader environmental issues. The Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures final report and executive summary provide an overview of the evidence and discuss the challenges and choices for policy makers and others whose interests relate to all aspects of the global food system. 13 synthesis reports are grouped around the five key future challenges and provide detailed analysis around the project’s robust scientific evidence base. Stand: Juli 2012 46 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The project has been motivated by a number of major challenges facing the future of food and farming including: A growing world population and changing patterns of habitation. The evolution of the global economy and associated trade and governance issues. Changing demands in consumption across the world. The effects of climate change on agriculture and marine production. Concerns over growing energy demand and the need to increase yields while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The drive to improve the environmental sustainability of food production and consumption. Potential scientific and technological advances that will improve efficiency and productivity. Emergent and resurgent plant and animal pests and diseases. The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (2011): Achieving food security in the face of climate change Summary for policy makers Several converging threats – from climate change, population growth and unsustainable use of resources – are steadily intensifying pressure on humanity world government to transform the way food is produced, distributed and consumed. The food system faces additional pressure as the global population grows, to around 9 billion by 2050, and as diets shift towards higher consumption of calories, fats and animal products. Food insecurity afflicts communities throughout the world. As well as causing widespread human suffering, food insecurity contributes to degradation and depletion of natural resources, migration to urban areas and across borders, and political and economic instability. Our climate is changing and, given the levels of greenhouse gases already in our atmosphere, will continue to do so. Extreme weather events, such as high temperatures, droughts and floods, are already more frequent and severe, and have dire social, economic and ecological consequences. In the coming decades, global climate change will have an adverse overall effect on agricultural production and will bring us toward, and perhaps over, critical thresholds in many regions. To reduce the effect of climate change on food supplies, livelihoods and economies, we must greatly increase adaptive capacity in agriculture – both to long term climatic trends and to increasing variability – as an urgent priority. BIS – Foresight (2011): Migration and Global Environmental Change Stand: Juli 2012 47 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The project Migration and Global Environmental Change examines how profound changes in environmental conditions such as flooding, drought and rising sea levels will influence and interact with patterns of global human migration over the next 50 years. Whilst recognising the opportunities this human movement will present, 75% of which is internal, the project has found that the challenges associated with this interaction have been underestimated. By focusing solely on those that might leave vulnerable areas, we risk neglecting key issues: 1. Millions will be ‘trapped’ in vulnerable areas and unable to move, particularly in low income countries. 2. People are as likely to move towards areas of environmental risk as they are to move away. 3. However, migration can transform people’s ability to cope with environmental change. 4. What can we do about this: By recognising migration issues in international policies, policy makers will be more effective in efforts to help people cope with environmental change: International adaptation and development funding Long term urban planning. The project has involved around 350 leading experts and stakeholders from 30 countries across the world. More than 70 papers and other reviews of the state of the art of diverse areas of science were commissioned to inform the analysis. Stand: Juli 2012 48 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö USA: The White House AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) USDA Center for Sustainable Systems International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) The White House Executive Order (2009) Federal Leadership in Environmental and Energy Performance Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force Federal Actions for a Climate Resilient Nation Extreme weather and other climate change impacts pose significant social, economic, and environmental risks to the United States and the global community. The impacts of the climate change are affecting livelihoods, infrastructure, ecosystems, food production, energy supply, national security, and the cultural heritage of populations and communities. The U.S. Government has a responsibility to reduce climate risks to public health and safety, economic well-being, natural resources, and Federal programs and services. The Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force`s strategic vision is of a resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nation in the face of a changing climate. Agencies are taking steps to manage climate impacts to Federal agency missions, programs, and operations to ensure that resources are invested wisely and Federal services remain effective for the American people. Agencies are developing climate adaptation plans to identify their vulnerabilities and prioritize activities that reduce climate risk. In addition to domestic impacts, climate change exacerbates threats to communities, human development, and regional stability internationally. The impacts of climate change and extreme weather abroad can have serious economic and security implications for the United States. Conversely, actions that help countries climate risks benefit broader U.S. development and foreign policy objectives. The Federal Government is also committed to bringing its full capacities – including technical assistance, science, and technology – to support climate-resilient development programming around the word. The Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force will provide an update on Federal adaptation progress in March 2014, following the release of the 2013 National Climate Assessment Synthesis Report. The Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force will work to align Federal efforts with those of communities, states, tribes, and regions to reduce the risks of extreme events and climate impacts through adaptation. These collective efforts will help advance the Nation toward a sustainable future. Stand: Juli 2012 49 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The 21st century is shaping up to be a challenging one The core issues that face us are: food, energy, water The interconnections are embedded in: climate change, biodiversity and ecosystems, economics, innovation, population growth, renewably energy, education, global health, development, agriculture. They are both global in their scope and profoundly interconnected www.aaas.org AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Annual Meeting AAAS Vancouver (2012): Flattening the World: Building a Global Knowledge Society The 21st century is shaping up to be a challenging one. Stand: Juli 2012 50 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The issues that face us are many: They climate change, energy, agriculture, health, water, biodiversity and ecosystems, population growth, and economic development. are both global in their scope and profoundly interconnected. Growing the food—and feed and fiber and fuel—demanded by a still expanding and increasingly affluent human population will require innovations not just in agriculture, but in water and land management, food processing and transportation, and many other areas such as international trade and regulatory policies. Energy drives our economies. How do we transition to energy sources that do not perturb our climate and use a disproportionate amount of the water we need for people and agriculture without taking an economic beating? Decimating what remains of the tropic’s forests will as surely exacerbate climate change as it will reduce biodiversity and impact ecosystem services. What do the climatic warming trends well underway mean for agriculture, for public health, for the survival of our coastal cities? What does adaptation really entail? It’s one big thorny tangle: people, money, food, energy, health, water, land, climate, biodiversity. How do we as scientists, engineers, and policymakers begin to think—and act—on a global scale to address such complicated, cross-cutting problems? How do we tackle the sheer complexity of global systems, be they economic, ecological, or educational? How do we begin to develop truly global models, and then solutions, through multinational collaborative efforts? We live in an age of instant global communication, a time when collaborations between countries and continents have never been easier, at least from a technical standpoint. A stunning example is the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and highest-energy particle accelerator, which is being used by a multinational group of physicists to understand the fundamental building blocks and laws of nature, from subatomic to cosmic. Remote sensing technology enables the detailed observation of virtually every aspect of our planet’s surface, subsurface, and climate. Stores of information and knowledge can be accessed from anywhere by anyone. Technology and the Internet are transforming education. Learning is, in principle, available to everyone everywhere. The focus of the 2012 meeting, then, is on using the power of electronic communications and information resources to tackle the complex problems of the 21st century on a global scale through international, multidisciplinary efforts. We have a model already in the scale and scope of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But that’s just the beginning. The Stand: Juli 2012 51 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö interconnections among, for example, climate change, agriculture, and health are as yet poorly understood; predictive modeling is in its infancy. The ability to approach global problems through global collaborations depends on an educated populace and on substantial scientific and technological sophistication throughout the world. Thus building the global knowledge society depends on advancing education and research, the engines of the knowledge society, everywhere. This task is facilitated, but not accomplished, by the existence of electronically accessible open educational resources. There remain limitations of language and culture, of poverty and access. Learn from many of the world's leading experts on the life cycles of matter and galaxies, unlocking biology's potential, climate change in northern latitudes, the power of indigenous cultures, and more. Be informed about how to solve, not just talk about, many of the world's most complex challenges that impact you and the global community. USDA (2010): The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity: “The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States” integrates the Federal research efforts of 13 agencies on climate and global change. The report focuses on the next 25 to 50 years, and finds that climate change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so. USDA is using the report’s findings in the development of a new Strategic Plan for Climate Change research. The Forest Service is integrating climate change into National Forest Service Management Plans and is providing guidance to Forest Managers on how to respond and adapt to climate change. The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce GHG emissions and increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs. USDA’s Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks, and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the crop insurance program. USDA is also providing guidance to landowners to enable them to estimate their greenhouse gas footprints. SPECIFIC FINDINGS INCLUDE: Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if precipitation decreases or becomes more variable. Higher temperatures will negatively affect livestock. Warmer winters will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals. Stand: Juli 2012 52 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Forests in the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska are already being affected by climate change with increases in the size and frequency of forest fires, insect outbreaks and tree mortality. These changes are expected to continue. Much of the United States has experienced higher precipitation and streamflow, with decreased drought severity and duration, over the 20th century. The West and Southwest, however, are notable exceptions, and increased drought conditions have occurred in these regions. Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO². Under projections reported in the assessment, weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicide applications. There is a trend toward reduced mountain snowpack and earlier spring snowmelt runoff in the Western United States. Horticultural crops (such as tomato, onion, and fruit) are more sensitive to climate change than grains and oilseed crops. Young forests on fertile soils will achieve higher productivity from elevated atmospheric CO² concentrations. Nitrogen deposition and warmer temperatures will increase productivity in other types of forests where water is available. Invasion by exotic grass species into arid lands will result from climate change, causing an increased fire frequency. Rivers and riparian systems in arid lands will be negatively impacted. A continuation of the trend toward increased water use efficiency could help mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The growing season has increased by 10 to 14 days over the last 19 years across the temperate latitudes. Species’ distributions have also shifted. The rapid rates of warming in the Arctic observed in recent decades, and projected for at least the next century, are dramatically reducing the snow and ice covers that provide denning and foraging habitat for polar bears. USDA (2010): Adapting to climate change Climate stresses have real consequences for food production, affecting the yields of staple foods crops and threatening livelihoods. The effects of climate change are complex and far-reaching. It is for this reason that the USDA is developing a forward-looking policy for adaptation to climate change. USDA is working with the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force to implement a strategy for ensuring scientific information about climate change and adaptation options. USDA (2010): Stand: Juli 2012 53 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö USDA Climate Change Science Plan The overarching objective of the Science Plan is to incorporate the management of climate change challenges and opportunities into the scientific missions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Credible, validated, and effective climate change science and technology made easily available to internal and external USDA customers and stakeholders on scales relevant to decision making. USDA has identified four priority elements concerning climate change. These elements encompass concerns and information requirements identified by USDA agency representatives, customers, stakeholders, and collaborators. Element 1: understand the direct and indirect effects of climate change on natural and managed ecosystems, including feedbacks to the climate system. Element 2: develop knowledge, institutional models, and tools to enable adaptation to climate change and to improve the resilience of natural and ecosystems. Element 3: develop knowledge and tools to enhance the contribution of agriculture, forestry, grassland, wetlands, and other land management practices to mitigate atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions. Element 4: provide science-based decision support information and tools to USDA agencies, stakeholders and collaborators to improve decision and policy making. The issue of climate change is complex and affects multiple USDA mission areas and agencies. Several agencies within the Department have a role conducting research and supporting climate change science. Each agency will prepare a Climate Change Science Implementation Plan that will include specific performance measures and will build on the elements and priorities outlined in this document. The White House Council on Environmental Quality Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force has recommended that Federal agencies develop regional climate change adaptation consortia to harmonize the efforts of decision makers and information providers. Mathematical models are necessary to predict future climate changes and the quantitative responses by natural and managed populations and ecosystems. Communication of climate change research outcomes, technologies, and policies to the broadest possible audience will require outreach by all USDA agencies to ensure that the benefits of USDA climate change activities are realized by the Nation and the international community. To be responsive to public demands, USDA scientific climate change efforts, including research, education, and extension, will need to ensure that there are clear pathways from research to operational support. USDA will also encourage development of new methods, models, and other resources that facilitate economic analysis and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, and integration and interpretation of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision Stand: Juli 2012 54 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö context. This effort will include supporting and improving existing models and decision support mechanism.USDA (2010): Energy use in the U.S. food system A number of studies over the past four decades have examined foodrelated energy use in the United States. Taken together, these studies indicate that food-related energy use has remained a substantial share of the national energy budget, that food-related energy use of households has been the largest among supply chain stages, and that food-related energy flows may have increased significantly over the past decade. These results, however, do not explain why energy use has changed over time. The report provides policymakers and analysts with information to assess which stages of the food supply chain and what industries are the largest energy users, which stages and industries have experienced the fastest rates of energy-use growth, what factors have influenced increases in energy use in the food sector, and what factors are likely to influence changes in the future. Findings suggest that about half of the growth in food related energy use between 1997 and 2002is explained by a shift from human labour toward a greater reliance on energy services across nearly all food expenditure categories. Household operations accounted for the highest food-related energy use. Food related energy use based on the total U.S. energy consumption as a share of the national energy budget grew to 15,7 percent. Although energy prices are high and volatile, households and the foodservice industry continue to outsource food preparation through the purchase of prepared foods with high energy-use requirements. Center for Sustainable Systems (2000): Life Cycle-Based Sustainability Indicators for Assessment of the U.S. food system Multiple threats to the long-term vitality of the U.S. food system demonstrate that the current system is not economically, socially, or environmentally sustainable. In general, a sustainable system is one that can be maintained at a certain state or quality on a long-term horizon. Life cycle assessment provides a system-based accounting of material and energy inputs and outputs at all stages of the life cycle: acquisition of raw materials, production, processing, packaging, use, and retirement. This holistic assessment provides an environmental profile of the product system. Stand: Juli 2012 55 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Akademie der Wissenschaften der USA (2010): Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit unter Einfluss des Klimawandels Die Akademie der Wissenschaften der USA hat eine Zusammenfassung über weltweit ausgearbeitete Studien über NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit unter Einfluss des Klimawandels vorgelegt Die Autoren analysieren die vier Dimensionen der NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit (Produktion, Stabilität, Nutzung und Zugang) unter Einfluss des Klimawandels weltweit. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels wird als signifikant bewertet. Im ersten Kapitel analysieren die Autoren die Produktion, die Stabilität der Verfügbarkeit, die Nutzung und den Zugang zu Nahrungsmittel, im zweiten Kapitel wird eine quantitative Bewertung des Einflusses des Klimawandels auf die Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit unternommen und im dritten Kapitel werden die Unsicherheiten, die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Vorhersagemodelle beschrieben. Die Schlussfolgerung rundet die Ausführungen ab. I. Klimawandel und Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit a.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Nahrungsmittelproduktion und auf die Verfügbarkeit von Nahrungsmittel ist direkt und indirekt und gebietsweise uneinheitlich. Änderungen der Temperatur und des Niederschlages verbunden mit Emissionen von Treibhausgasen wird Änderungen der Bodenqualität und der Ernteerträge nach sich ziehen. Die durchschnittliche Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche wird je nach Szenario zwischen 1,8 Grad C und 4,0 Grad C um das Jahr 2100 angegeben. In den gemäßigten Zonen bringt die Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche Vorteile für die Landwirtschaft, in dem Mediterranen Raum durch die Ausdehnung der Dürreperioden wiederum Nachteile. Die Trockengebiete werden noch trockener und dadurch für den Anbau von Feldfrüchten völlig ungeeignet. Durch die höheren Temperaturen wird der Schädlingsbefall zunehmen, die die Winter mit höheren Temperaturen überleben und im Frühjahr dann massiv die Pflanzenkulturen befallen. Die Zunahme der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre beeinflusst auch massiv die landwirtschaftliche Produktion. Die Vorhersageszenarien erwarten eine Steigerung der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre von derzeit 379 ppm auf zwischen 550 ppm bis 800 ppm um das Jahr 2100. Die Erträge werden dadurch bei Weizen, Reis und Sojabohne zwischen 10 % und 20 %, bei Mais zwischen 0 % und 10 % steigen. Der Eiweißgehalt wird dagegen sinken. Das bebaubare Ackerland wird in den entwickelten Ländern um 160 Millionen Hektar ausgedehnt (die größte Ausdehnung in Russland, Ukraine und Zentralasien). Dagegen werden die Entwicklungsländer vor allem die Sub - Sahara Region massiv benachteiligt. Insgesamt werden die Entwicklungsländer 130 Millionen Hektar an bebaubarem Ackerland Stand: Juli 2012 56 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö verlieren und nur 20 gewinnen, das bedeutet einen Nettoverlust von 110 Millionen Hektar bis um das Jahr 2100. b.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Stabilität der Verfügbarkeit von Nahrungsmitteln Neben den langfristigen Trends wie im Punkt a.) analysiert, werden auch kurzfristige Wetterschwankungen, wie Überschwemmungen, Zyklone, Hagel und Dürreperioden die Ernte regional zunehmend beeinträchtigen. In Folge wird die regionale Stabilität der Verfügbarkeit von Nahrungsmitteln starken Schwankungen unterworfen. Die kurzfristigen Wetterschwankungen werden am stärksten gerade in den Weltregionen auftreten, welche auch von den langfristigen Negativeffekten am meisten betroffen werden. c.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Nutzung von Nahrungsmitteln In diesem Teil der Studie analysieren die Autoren den zusätzlich auftretenden Druck durch Schädlingsbefall, Beeinträchtigung der Wasserqualität und Lebensmittelvergiftungen auf Nahrungsmittel. Auch die Ausbreitung der durch Malaria befallenen Gebiete wird in Betracht gezogen. Dieses Kapitel beschreibt auch die zusätzliche Anfälligkeit der Menschen gegen Krankheiten, welche durch den Verzehr von beeinträchtigten Lebensmitteln verursacht werden. Höhere Temperaturen begünstigen der Tendenz nach Nahrungsmittelvergiftungen, wie Salmonellose und Durchfallserkrankungen. Häufiger auftretende extreme Regenfälle begünstigen Überschwemmungen, die wiederum in weiten Gebieten der Erde, vor allem wo die Trennung zwischen Nutzwasser und Abwasser nicht ausreichend gesichert ist, das Auftreten von Choleraerkrankungen begünstigt. d.) Einfluss des Klimawandels auf den Zugang zu Nahrungsmitteln Der Zugang zu Nahrungsmittel wird von den Autoren als die Möglichkeit der Menschen, der Gemeinden, der Länder, also das Anrecht aller auf Nahrungsmittel in ausreichender Menge, guter Qualität und gesunder Beschaffenheit, definiert. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten begünstigte der Anstieg des Volkseinkommens kombiniert mit niedrigen Preisen für Lebensmittel weltweit den Rückgang des Hungers. Diesen Erfolg zu halten und noch zu verbessern wird mit Berücksichtigung der vorhin gesagten und der Zunahme der Weltbevölkerung auf 9 Milliarden in 2050 eine enorme Herausforderung. Die weiteren Bevölkerungsprognosen gehen bis zum Jahr 2080 und liegen bei 13,6 Milliarden Menschen, davon 11,6 Milliarden in den Entwicklungsländern. Und dieser überwiegende Teil der Weltbevölkerung lebt dann wiederum in Regionen, welche durch vielfältige Risiken zunehmend beeinträchtigt werden. Einige Experten versuchen auch die Preisentwicklung für die Stand: Juli 2012 57 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Nahrungsmittel für so einen weiten Zeitraum zu prognostizieren, weil die Entwicklung der Konsumentenpreise auch darüber mitentscheidet, ob genügend Haushaltseinkommen zur Verfügung steht, was wiederum über die Möglichkeit des Zuganges zu Nahrungsmittel in ausreichender Menge, guter Qualität und gesunder Beschaffenheit entscheidet. II. Quantitative Bewertung des Klimawandels auf die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit Die Simulationsmodelle in diesem Kapitel beinhalten die Auswirkungen, welche aus dem kombinierten Effekt der Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche und des Anstieges der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre folgen. Es werden fünf Feststellungen gefolgert: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit wird höher, dass die Anzahl der Menschen, die einer steigenden Unsicherheit der Nahrungsmittel-Versorgung entgegensehen, wachsen wird, Es wird erwartet, dass die sozio- ökonomischen Einflüsse sogar noch einen wesentlich größeren Einfluss auf die Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit haben werden, als der Klimawandel selbst, Die Sub-Sahara Region wird am meisten unsicher in Hinblick auf die Nahrungsmittel-Versorgungssicherheit, Der Anstieg der Kohlendioxidkonzentration der Erdatmosphäre hat einen wesentlich geringeren Effekt auf die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit als die Erwärmung der Erdoberfläche, Die Maßnahmen, die auf eine Stabilisierung des Klimawandels zielen, werden insgesamt sehr positiv auf den Ackerbau auswirken, diese jetzt gesetzten oder bald zu setzende Maßnahmen werden aber erst in der zweiten Hälfte des Jahrhunderts wirksam. III. Unsicherheiten, Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Vorhersagemodelle Die Autoren betonen, dass es wünschenswert wäre, Wahrscheinlichkeiten über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels in die Modellberechnungen einzubauen um den politisch Verantwortlichen zu unterstützen, Entscheidungen für notwendige Maßnahmen zu begründen. IV. Schlussfolgerung Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften mit verstärkten Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung werden am Wesentlichsten dazu beitragen, die Herausforderungen, die aus dem Klimawandel für die NahrungsmittelVersorgungssicherheit resultieren, zu meistern. Stand: Juli 2012 58 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö The National Academies, Advisors to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (2010): 21st Century Systems Agriculture An Update of the 1989 NRC Report "Alternative Agriculture" In an update of the report, Alternative Agriculture, an NRC committee will study the science and policies that influence the adoption of farming practices and management systems designed to reduce the costs and environmental effects of agricultural production. A set of case-studies will be used to examine farming systems that address those concerns and to explore the factors that affect their implementation, economic viability, and success in meeting environmental and other goals of sustainability. Although there are many systems of farming that are directed toward reducing costs and environmental impacts, the study will focus on food and fiber production that systematically pursues: Greater incorporation of natural processes such as nutrient cycles, nitrogen fixation, and pest-predator relationships into the production process; Reduction in the use of off-farm inputs and release of farming by products (pollution) with the greatest potential to harm the environment or the health of farmers and consumers; Greater productive use of the biological and genetic potential of plant and animal species; Improvement of the match between cropping patterns and the productive potential and limitations of agricultural lands to ensure long-term sustainability of current production levels and resiliency under projected climate change conditions; Profitable and efficient production, with emphasis on improved farm management and conservation of soil, water, energy, and biological resources. Drawing on scientific, economic, agriculture, and other literature, the study will: Review the state of scientific and economic knowledge of farming practices and systems of management that meet the criteria above to identify the most promising findings and determine what additional research is needed; Examine the potential for a systems-approach to farming to contribute to national economic, environmental, social, and public health goals and explore how other nations have pursued these goals in the context of agricultural sustainability ; Identify and evaluate the factors, including structural changes in agribusiness, changing consumer preferences and market incentives, international trade, environmental impacts, and government programs and policies that influence the adoption of farming practices and systems that contribute to those goals. Stand: Juli 2012 59 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö In addition to gaining information from the literature, the committee will carry out a detailed examination of individual production systems, including several described in the 1989 report. A retrospective look at those farming operations will reveal whether the economic and other intended benefits of the practices and systems in place at that time have met their potential or have otherwise been challenged over the years. Additional case studies that represent unique production systems or incorporate novel practices, including examples from outside of the United State, will also be explored. At the conclusion of its study, the committee will produce a comprehensive report of its findings on the science and policy influences on systems-based agriculture. The report will include: An overview of the current dimensions of U.S. agriculture in both the domestic and world economies; A description of problems in the farm economy and challenges in agricultural production that are driving changes in approaches to farm management in the U.S. and abroad; An update of the 1989 report's review of the economics of alternative farming systems and of methods used to develop cost and productivity comparisons at different levels of analysis, such as the level of individual components of an enterprise, the level of the whole farm, or regional, national, and international levels; An analysis of progress made in the scientific understanding of systems farming and of the scientific evidence for the contribution of specific practices to the objectives of maintaining yields, conserving soil, maintaining water quality, among other goals. Detailed descriptions of the case-studies, including general information about the production operation and its physical and capital, features of the management systems being used, and indicators of productivity , environmental, and financial performance. For case-studies described in the 1989 report, the description will include a retrospective review of the past performance and the evolution of decision-making by those producers over time. Supported by the findings and conclusions of the study, the committee will recommend research and development needs for advancing a systemsapproach to farming and suggest ways to strengthen federal policies and programs related to improving agricultural production while reducing its impact on the environment. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (2012): Ensuring food and nutrition security in a green economy IFPRI Policy Brief 21 As the population continues to grow and natural resources become scarcer, the need to shift toward an environmentally responsible, socially Stand: Juli 2012 60 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö accountable, more equitable, and “greener” economy has become increasingly apparent. Food and nutrition security remains under stress. For the 900 million undernourished people in the world and the more than 2 billion people suffering from micronutrient deficiency, the poor management and increasing scarcity of natural resources like water, arable land, and energy make the production of and access to adequate, nutritious food difficult. With higher incomes, emerging middle classes in developing countries can afford to consume more fruits and vegetables and, in particular, more meat, which requires much more water and land to produce. In addition, as people demand more perishable and processed foods, food safety risks along the supply chain increase. These risks may also increase with more intensive crop and livestock farming through contamination with chemicals or pathogens. Intensifying food production can boost the food security of millions of poor people and help save pristine forests and virgin soil from conversion to agriculture, as seen during the Green Revolution. However, increasing food production can also contribute to problems such as land degradation, water pollution, depletion of water resources, and new pest problems. These unintended consequences highlight the need for adequate agricultural extension, effective regulation, careful pricing policies, the correction of inappropriate incentives, and policy responses that make intensive agriculture compatible with sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Land degradation—whether in the form of desertification, deforestation, overgrazing, salinization, or soil erosion—poses a serious threat to longterm food security, especially since arable land is already scarce in Asia and cultivating land reserves in Latin America and Africa would come at high environmental and infrastructure costs. In fact, most land degradation throughout the past 30 years occurred in developing countries, compromising future agricultural productivity growth in these areas. Projections suggest that by 2050 water scarcity could reduce cereal production potential by more than 10 percent, not taking into account other yield-reducing factors. It has been estimated that the agriculture sector is responsible for up to 30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which directly contribute to climate change. In addition to unsustainable natural-resource use, other human actions can cause environmental changes that threaten food security and the stability of the planet’s environment. Apart from climate change these include chemical pollution or biodiversity loss. Some of these changes are argued to already compromise the safe operation of the earth’s ecosystems and threaten human welfare and agricultural productivity. Agriculture in a green economy has immense potential to address the unsustainable use of natural resources for food production. Stand: Juli 2012 61 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Innovations in biological sciences, resource management, and agricultural processes will be essential to increase productivity and resource-use efficiency in a green economy. The application of modern biotechnology in crop breeding has shown how life sciences can contribute to agriculture and under which conditions smallholders can benefit. This technology also holds potential to help address other challenges, such as improving nitrogen-use efficiency of crops. Novel technologies also include nanotechnology, which has barely been explored for agricultural uses. Likewise, innovative policies and investments will be needed to help agriculture adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change, and policymakers will need more evidence on agricultural innovation systems to make more informed decisions. Stand: Juli 2012 62 Marktinformation der AgrarMarkt Austria K-Ö Schweiz: SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband (2010): Weltweite Ernährungstrends und ihre Bedeutung für die schweizerische Versorgungssicherheit; Entwicklungen und Prognosen zur Nahrungsmittelproduktion und zum Nahrungsmittelkonsum 2050 wird die Bevölkerung in der Schweiz neun Millionen betragen. Damit wächst auch die Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Produkten. Die Schweiz wenig Ackerfläche, und trotz hoher Getreideerträge eine tiefe ProKopf-Getreideproduktion. Der schweizer Pro-Kopf-Konsum liegt deutlich über dem weltweiten, insbesondere bei den tierischen Produkten. Gemessen an verwertbarer Energie, benötigt die Schweiz 39.000 Terajoule (=10,8 Milliarden Kilowattstunden) Nahrungsmittelenergie Die Schweiz importiert 40 % der benötigten Nahrungsmittel. Der Nettoselbstversorgungsgrad (Abzug der importierten Futtermittel) der Schweiz liegt etwa bei 54 %. Die Abhängigkeit der Schweiz vom Ausland ist folglich hoch. Völlige Importabhängigkeit besteht bei Treibstoffen. Die Knappheit wird allmählich zur Norm. Die landwirtschaftliche Produktion muss rationell, nachhaltig und maßvoll gestaltet werden. Dazu sind auch Maßnahmen notwendig, die die Kulturlandverlust wirksam bremsen. Für die Schweiz stellt sich die Frage, ob das Land eine noch größere Auslandsabhängigkeit anstreben soll oder nicht. SBV Schweizerischer Bauernverband (2010): Menü 2050 - Müssen wir uns um unser Essen sorgen? Situationsbericht 2010 Als kleines Land ist die Schweiz noch stärker als viele andere Staaten in die globale Wirtschaft integriert und für die eigene Versorgung vom Ausland abhängig. Die schweizer Bevölkerung hat sich für den Weg der Unabhängigkeit entschieden, bedacht darauf, ihre Souveränität und damit auch ihre Eigenheiten zu erhalten. In Anbetracht der globalen Entwicklung und der speziellen Situation der Schweiz setzt sich der SBV dafür ein, dass sich die schweizer Landwirtschaft in Richtung einer vernünftigen Ernährungssouveränität weiterentwickelt. Stand: Juli 2012 63