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Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) John J. Magnuson and Richard C. Lathrop WICCI Science Council Co-Chairs Presented at the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada May 17, 2010 WICCI was created from a partnership between the UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Acknowledgments: Alison Coulson, Nelson Institute, UW-Madison *Chris Kucharik, Nelson Institute’s Center for Sustainability and Global Environment, and Dept. Agronomy, UW-Madison Dave Lorenz, Nelson Institute’s Center for Climatic Research (CCR), UW-Madison Mike Notaro, UW-Madison CCR Shawn Serbin, Dept. Forestry and Wildlife Ecology, UW-Madison *Dan Vimont, UW-Madison CCR Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007 (4th Assessment Report) * Co-Leaders of WICCI’s “Wisconsin Climate Working Group” WICCI was created from a partnership between the UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Evidence of Climate Change in Wisconsin One of many signs of warming in Wisconsin... Ice-on Day 2007 Lake Mendota Photo: Peter W. Schmitz Decrease in duration of ice cover on lakes Source: J. Magnuson, UW-Madison Earlier arrival of spring in Wisconsin Bird migration Vegetation Geese Arrival: 29 days Baptista first bloom: 18 days Cardinal first song: 22 days Butterfly weed first bloom: 18 days Robin arrival: 9 days Marsh milkweed first bloom: 13 days Nina Leopold Bradley Photo: Jeffrey Phelps, Milw. Journal Sentinel 55 ecological indicators of spring occurred on average 1.2 days earlier per decade from 1936 to 1998. Source: Bradley et al., 1999. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 96: 9701-9704. Leopold Shack Photo: Aldo Leopold Foundation Slide adapted from C. Kucharik, UW-Madison Climate Change in Wisconsin: Historical Trends Circa 1930 Weather Station Network for Wisconsin (Daily temperature and precipitation data since 1950) Photo credit: NOAA Source: Map from Serbin and Kucharik (2009); photos from C. Kucharik, UW-Madison Change in Annual Average Temperature (°F) from 1950 to 2006 Statewide average 1.5°F warmer (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Spring Winter Change in Average Temperature (°F) from 1950 to 2006 Fall Summer The greatest amount of warming is occurring in Winter and Spring, especially in northwest Wisconsin. (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Change in Daily Minimum and Maximum Temperatures (°F) Spring Summer Fall Daily High Winter Daily Low Nighttime lows are warming faster than daytime highs, especially in summer. (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Extreme Temperature Trends Change in the frequency of <0°F nights per year from 1950 to 2006 Change in the frequency of ≥90°F days per year from 1950 to 2006 Decline in extremely cold winter nights, especially in northwest Wisconsin Very little change in hot summer days (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Change in Wisconsin’s Seasons Change in Date of Last Spring Freeze from 1950 to 2006 Change in Date of First Fall Freeze from 1950 to 2006 (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Change in the Length of the Growing Season In Days from 1950 to 2006 Increase of up to 4 weeks (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Recent Precipitation Trends Change in Annual Average Precipitation (inches) from 1950 to 2006 Statewide average 15% increase, but highly variable across Wisconsin (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Spring Winter Change in Average Precipitation (inches) from 1950 to 2006 Fall Summer 5–10% decrease (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009) Climate Change in Wisconsin: Future Projections Climate Modeling: Used 14 Global Climate Models (GCM’s) having daily data in IPCC 2007 assessment Downscaling verified using same Wisconsin weather station data analyzed for historical climate trends IPCC 2007 Provides a range of probable climate changes (probability distribution) essential for impact assessments Global Climate Model grid Downscaled (8x8 km grid) Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts in Wisconsin Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison Annual Temperature Change Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature (°F) from 1980 to 2055 Probability Distribution of 14 Global Climate Model Projections 50% probability temperature (plotted on maps) 90% chance of exceeding this temperature 10% chance of exceeding this temperature Wisconsin projected to warm by 4 – 9 °F by mid-21st Century Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison Projected Change in Seasonal Temperatures Spring Winter 1980 to 2055 (°F) Fall Summer Warming is most pronounced in winter Extreme Temperature Projections Projected change in the frequency Projected change in the of <0°F nights per year frequency of ≥90°F days per year from 1980 to 2055 from 1980 to 2055 Fewer extremely cold winter nights More hot summer days Projected Change in Precipitation from 1980 to 2055 Change in Annual Average (inches) Probability Distributions of 14 Climate Model Projections by Month Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison MonthlyMONTHLY Frequency of >3-inch Rainstorms PREDICTED FREQUENCY OF EXCEEDING Madison, Wisconsin 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS MADISON, WI averaged for all 14 GCM’s) (Future projections (Averaged over all models.) in 24 hr 0.08 1961-2000 1961-2000 2046-2065 2046-2065 2081-2100 2081-2100 0.06 Increase in extreme precipitation events during spring & fall 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 December November October August July June May April March February 0 September 0.01 January Exceedance Frequency Probability Exceedance 0.07 Source: K. Potter, UW-Madison. Based on statistically downscaled data developed by Kucharik, Lorenz, Notaro, and Vimont, UW-Madison. How Could Wisconsin Adapt to Climate Change? Photo: WDNR Mitigation vs. Adaptation Change in rate of GHG emissions* = Very little = Minor = Major *Scenarios from IPCC 2007 Mitigate 3.6 ºF Adapt Modified from: IPCC 2007 Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Objectives: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions Evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities Develop and recommend adaptation strategies Collaborative and Interdisciplinary Science Council: Members represent an array of disciplines and expertise within the University of Wisconsin System (UW), the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) and other state and federal agencies, universities and institutions. Working Groups: Experts in working group topic areas coming from WDNR, other state and federal agencies, UW, non-profit organizations, and private sector. Working groups are a mix of researchers, managers, and practitioners from around the state. Advisory Committee: Stakeholders from across Wisconsin who bring a wide variety of perspectives including representatives from the utilities, state and local government, agriculture, transportation, tourism, forestry, public health, conservation and environmental organizations, Native Americans, etc. Outreach Committee: Experts in communications and outreach from UW-Madison, UW Sea Grant, UW-Extension, and WDNR. Current & Developing Working Groups Water Resources Human Health Milwaukee Soil Conservation Coldwater Fish Agriculture Stormwater Wisconsin Climate Loss of Winter Wildlife Plants & Natural Communities Green Bay Central Sands Hydrology Forestry Coastal Communities Impacts of Climate Change Are Pervasive How will climate projections be used? Risk: Probability of climate event occurring multiplied by severity of impact Define present day risk with present day probability distribution Probability Identify threshold / response surface Present Climate Projected Climate Impact threshold Climate Variable Compare future risk with future probability distribution Explore how adaptation strategies can impact risk Probability Adaption Climate Variable Source: Adapted from Dan Vimont, UW-Madison Loss of Winter in Wisconsin Culture Sense of Place Recreation Tourism Photo: UW Center for Limnology Photo: R. Lathrop Photo: J. Patz A Clear Threshold 29°C and 50% rain vs. Snow Warmer Winters Snow cover changes Madison Wisconsin End of Century Snow Rain Present Day Shorter Snow Season Dan Vimont, UW-Madison Probabilities of Snow vs. Rain Dan Vimont A Clear Threshold Trout in Wisconsin Streams July-August Water Temperatures < or = 22°C Photo Matt Mitro WDNR NOW 17,900 km of stream 12,500 km of stream Present Matt Mitro & John Lyons WDNR +1°C 4,800 km of streams -73% Present Gain Loss 16,000 km Of streams +28% Matt Mitro & John Lyons WDNR +3°C 300 km -98% Present Gain Loss 2,100 km -83% Matt Mitro & John Lyons WDNR +5°C 0 km -100% Present Gain Loss 500 km -96% Matt Mitro & John Lyons WDNR Catfish Gains Do Not Offset Trout losses Present +1 +3 +5 °C John Lyons W DNR 2009 Expect the the Unexpected 4) Expect unexpected! John Lyons W DNR 2009 Forestry Working Group Loss of Northern Tree Species Impacts of Warmer Winters on Logging Photo: Karin Fassnacht, WDNR Wildlife Working Group Spruce grouse Loss of species Loss of natural habitats and biodiversity (also Natural Places Working Group) Showy lady’s slipper Photo: Karl Martin, WDNR Overabundance of other species Dragon’s mouth orchid Photo: WDNR Photo: T. Meyer, WDNR Human Health Working Group Increase in waterborne infectious diseases from more intense storms Combined sewer overflow from Milwaukee entering Lake Michigan Photo: Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage Dist. Increase in vector-borne infectious diseases Photo: Gary Braasch Photo: www.topnews.in Increase in respiratory health problems from air pollution and climate change Stormwater Working Group Damage to communities and transportation systems from extreme storm events Madison, WI, July 2006 Photo: Gordy Stephenson Rock Springs, WI, June 2008 Photo: Michael Kienitz WICCI’S First Adaptive Assessment Report Fall 2010 Synthesis of climate impact assessments of WICCI Working Groups Recommendations on adaptation strategies for decision makers Future Activities • Expanding Outreach Efforts • New website now online • Newsletters • Outreach Committee initiatives • Collaboration beyond Wisconsin’s borders • Upper Great Lakes Region • USGS Regional Science Hub • Subsequent Adaptive Assessments http://www.wicci.wisc.edu/ WICCI was created from a partnership between the UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.