Download PowerPoint Presentation - European Academy of Sciences

Addressing climate
challenges through
Research and Innovation
policy
Attilio Gambardella
'Climate Action and Earth Observation'
European Commission - DG Research and Innovation
Research and
Innovation
EURASC 2015
Brest, 27 October 2015
Policy
Research and
Innovation
© IPCC 2013
Limiting warming to likely less than 2°C since 1861-1880
requires cumulative CO2 emissions to stay below 1000 GtC.
Until 2011, over 50% of this amount has been emitted.
Accounting for other forcings, the upper amount of cumulative
CO2 emissions is 800 GtC; over 60% have been emitted by 2011.
Policy
Research and
Innovation
• Warming is already producing sensible impacts, and even if
emissions are stopped today, the impacts will continue and
grow (e.g. sea-level rise).
• Adaptation is possible, but there are limits to it and costs
grow with warming.
•
We have a choice, and
Emission trends are growing, and in the last decade they
still
a
window
of
are combined with a worsening of the carbon intensity of
energy
production.
opportunity
to act.
• Several mitigation trajectories are possible in order to stay
below 2°C warming; however, the later emissions peak
and decrease, the higher the costs will be.
Policy
Research and
Innovation
2015: a crossroad for climate
• IPCC AR5 set the scene: it is time for action.
• COP21 will arrive to an agreement on a new international
agreement – what ambition?
• Decarbonisation has already started – Chinese 2014
emissions for energy production did not grow;
• Notwithstanding the ambition of the COP21 agreement, the
climate will continue to change for long time: we have to
get prepared for risks and opportunities.
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Council Decision for COP21
Stresses
• That in order to stay below 2°C, global GHG emissions
need to peak by 2020 at the latest
• Be reduced by at least 50% globally by 2050 compared to
1990
• Be near zero or below by 2100
Recalls
• The EU objective to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050
in comparison to 1990
Policy
Research and
Innovation
What we are up to is a fast transition – from this
situation:
GHG emission intensity vs. per capita, major
economies, 2010-2030 Baseline
Policy
Research and
Innovation
To this, if we want to stay on the 2°C trajectory:
GHG emission intensity vs. per capita, major economies, 2030-2050 Global mitigation scenario
Policy
Research and
Innovation
EU decarbonisation vision for 2050
Energy Roadmap 2050 –
COM(2011)112
 Reduction of energy sector emissions by 85% by 2050
 Energy costs rising to 2030, coming down thereafter
 5 scenarios
 high efficiency
 diversified supply technologies
 high RES
 delayed CCS (not commercial by 2030)
 no nuclear
 RES more than 50% of supply in all scenarios
Policy
Research and
Innovation
A Research and Innovation strategy
on climate action
• Based on two main avenues:
• Low-carbon technologies:
Zero-carbon energy technologies (SET Plan, renewables and nuclear)
CCS and transition technologies
Decarbonisation of transports (Green Vehicles PPP, Clean Sky JTI)
Energy saving in industrial processes and in buildings (SPIRE and EeB PPPs)
Agriculture, forestry and the bioeconomy
• Climate change R&I (in SC5):
Supporting the development of a market for Climate Services
Developing cost-effective long-term decarbonisation pathways for Europe
Hot spots in the climate system: the Arctic
Nature-Based Solutions for Adaptation
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Climate change in Horizon2020
The 2014-2020 EU framework programme
for research and innovation
The EU is committed to spend at least 35% of the overall 80
billion Euro budget of Horizon 2020 for Climate-related
research and innovation actions
This includes: physical and social sciences, climate services,
energy and transport innovation, earth observation,
sustainable food production and water management, etc.
11
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Mitigating and Adapting to climate change
Climate action in Horizon 2020 is challenge-driven and
solution-oriented, with focus on:
Developing climate services in Europe and worldwide,
also including actions to help the climate services market
grow – indicative budget of 50m€ for 2016-2017
Designing realistic and cost-effective decarbonisation
pathways – indicative budget of 30m€ for 2016-2017
Addressing critical climate change hot-spots like the Arctic
– indicative budget of 40m€ for 2016-2017
Policy
Research and
Innovation
The development of a market for
Climate Services
Climate Services
The transformation of climate-related data – together with other relevant
information – into customised products such as projections, forecasts,
information, trends, economic analyses, assessments (including technology
assessments), counselling on best practices, development and evaluation of
solutions and any other service in relation to climate that may be of use for
the society at large.
A Roadmap on Climate Services was published in February 2015 as the
result of an Expert Group: http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/a-europeanresearch-and-innovation-roadmap-for-climate-services-pbKI0614177/
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Decision Making under a Changing Climate
• Enabling a range of decision makers to make more
informed decisions in relation to risks, opportunities and
response management
• Demand is relatively unknown (fragmented)
• The potential is largely untapped;
• Community and infrastructure insufficient to support
development; and services are primarily supply-driven and
to some degree user informed
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Decision Making under a Changing Climate
• Move to user-driven and science informed – service
focus to climate services
• Enabling the growth of a "market of CS" where public
and private sector entities collaborate to realise the
vision
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Climate services 2016 topics
Call 'Greening the economy':
Climate services
•Exploiting the added value of climate services
 2016: Demonstration of climate services (IA)
•Climate services market research (RIA)
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Towards a low-carbon Europe
• H2020 will provide support within the Work
Programme 2016-17 for the co-design with
economic and societal actors of feasible, costeffective decarbonisation trajectories to achieve
the EU's medium and long-term climate
objectives, while maximising societal benefits and
economic prosperity.
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Key areas to be addressed
• The risks and costs of climate change for Europe
• Defining and assessing complex impact chains under different
climate change scenarios – from unmitigated to effectively
mitigated – including macro-economic consequences
• Planning and management of technology
transition
• Co-designing technological transition ahead of time in different
sectors and with the involvement of innovators, regulators and
investors, as well as for users and citizens so as to support
stringent mitigation policies
• Assessment of the global mitigation efforts
• Analysing the adequacy of EU and global climate action in view of
the long-term climate goal, as well as their impact on global
industrial competitiveness, green growth, international trade,
energy security, public finance and cross-border capital flows
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Decarbonisation: 2016 topics
Call 'Greening the economy':
Towards a low-carbon Europe
•Pathways towards the decarbonisation and resilience
of the European economy in the timeframe 20302050 and beyond (RIA)
 Managing technology transition
 Assessment of the global mitigation efforts in the
perspective of the long-term climate goal
Policy
Research and
Innovation
The EU's policy approach towards the
Arctic Region
• Research and Innovation as a key component of
the review of the EU Arctic Policy
• The key contribution of DG RTD is built around
two pillars:
• The Arctic as a test bed for sustainable
innovation
• The Arctic as a clear case for science
diplomacy to act
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Research drivers
Support research activities on Polar Regions and
Earth Observation
Regional impacts, risks and opportunities of
economic development
Improvement of climate predictions and
services for Europe and globally
International cooperation
Policy
Research and
Innovation
The Galway Event:
Hosted by the Irish Prime Minister
under the Irish Presidency
of the European Union
23rd May 2013 – Science Workshop
24th May 2013 Signing ceremony of the
"Galway Statement” establishing the
Transatlantic Ocean Research Alliance
Canada-EU-US
Policy
Research and
Innovation
The Arctic: 2016 topics
Call 'Blue growth – demonstrating
an ocean of opportunities':
• BG-09-2016: An integrated Arctic observing system
(RIA)
• BG-10-2016: Impact of Arctic changes on the weather
and climate of the Northern Hemisphere
(RIA)
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Further information on the 2016-17
calls on the internet
• http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/
data/ref/h2020/wp/2016_2017/main/h20
20-wp1617-climate_en.pdf
Thanks for your
attention
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Policy
Research and
Innovation
EU INDC for climate negotiations
Key elements of the EU INDC
Type
Absolute reduction from base year
Coverage
Economy wide
Scope
CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases
Base year
1990
Period
2021-2030 inclusive
Reduction level
At least 40% in 2030
Agriculture, forestry, other land uses
included
Yes
% of Emissions covered
100%
Net Contribution of International
Market Based Mechanisms
No contribution from international credits.
Planning process
EUCO Oct.2014; legislative proposals
Fair and ambitious
In-line with transition to a low emissions
economy. Consistent with IPCC's
assessment of reductions required from
developed countries as a group of 80-95%
by 2050. EU emissions peaked already.
Policy
Research and
Innovation
Horizon 2020
•Aims at developing and delivering a strategic
framework and mechanisms to prioritise polar
science, optimise the use of polar infrastructure,
and enhance coordination with international
research organisations and programmes
Policy
Research and
Innovation