Download Submission to the Ministry for the Environment Setting New

Submission to the Ministry for the Environment Setting New Zealand’s post-­‐2020 climate change target Dr. Wokje Abrahamse
Lecturer, Environmental Studies, Victoria University of Wellington1
1. The target Internationally, the call for a reduction of global GHG emissions is evident. New Zealand needs to adopt a science-­‐based emission reduction target, i.e. a target that is in line with climate science. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report provides science-­‐based global targets for a 2 degree C scenario that lie in the range of 40-­‐70% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels2. New Zealand needs to set a target that will help keep warming below 2 degrees C so that the severe impacts of climate change can be averted, while also reflecting New Zealand’s capacities for emission reduction. 2. Social costs of climate change need to be part of long-­‐term climate policy Unless emissions of greenhouse gas emissions are reduced dramatically, we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts from changes to the climate. For New Zealand, these irreversible impacts of climate change include sea level rise and droughts. International studies34 highlight the importance of including the costs of climate change as part of a long-­‐
term climate policy. According to the International Energy Agency's 2011 World Energy Outlook: “Delaying action is a false economy. For every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.”5 New Zealand’s contribution to a new climate change agreement needs to take into account the long-­‐term costs of climate change, such as the effect of droughts on agricultural yields. A recent study published in Nature Climate Change estimates the long-­‐term social cost of carbon at US$220. As one of the Stanford-­‐based co-­‐authors notes: “Because carbon emissions are so harmful to society, even costly means of reducing emissions would be worthwhile.”6 3. Meeting the target 3. 1 Putting a price on carbon Market-­‐based approaches, such as a carbon tax or a cap-­‐and-­‐trade scheme can be effective tools for reducing GHG emissions. The carbon tax in British Columbia resulted in a reduction of GHG emissions, while GDP growth was not impacted. (“We have a winner: 1
This is a personal submission and does not necessarily reflect the views of Victoria University of
Wellington.
2
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/index.shtml
3
Watkiss P, Downing, T. The social cost of carbon: Valuation estimates and their use in UK policy.
Integrated Assessment, 2008 8: 85-15. http://journals.sfu.ca/int_assess/index.php/iaj/article/view/272/236
4
Ackerman F, Stanton E. Climate risks and carbon prices: Revising the social cost of carbon. Economics:
The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2012, 6: 1-25. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/57819
5
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2011/november/the-world-is-locking-itself-into-anunsustainable-energy-future-which-would-have-far-reaching-consequences-iea-warns-in-its-latest-worldenergy-outlook.html
6
Moore, F. C., & Diaz, D. B. (2015). Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent
mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change. Online first.
British Columbia's carbon tax woos sceptics”, according to The Economist7) In contrast, cap and trade schemes have not had much success in reducing emissions. A recent paper published in Nature Climate Change referred to the NZETS as “reflecting deficiencies in policy design and a lack of domestic effort to reduce emissions”.8 The NZETS needs a cap, which will provide an incentive to invest in energy efficient technologies and help reduce New Zealand’s emissions in line with a science-­‐based target to prevent a warming of 2 degrees C. 3.2 Agriculture Agriculture’s contribution to New Zealand’s GDP (6.5%) does not align with agriculture’s contribution to New Zealand’s GHG emissions (48%). Various national and international studies indicate the negative environmental impacts of agriculture, which have sparked reports in the international media questioning New Zealand's "clean and green" image9,10. Including agricultural emissions in the emissions trading scheme would mean the real costs for New Zealanders are taken into consideration. It also signals a transition to greener, climate-­‐friendly agricultural products. Overseas markets show an increased demand for organic produce,11 creating opportunities for New Zealand. There is clear scope for reducing New Zealand’s agriculture GHG emissions. 3.3 Renewable energy New Zealand has a high share of renewable electricity and studies show that this can be increased to 100%12. There is potential for increased output of solar PV, wind and geothermal electricity, at the minimum. There are also opportunities to shift from exporting raw materials, such as timber, to products with more added value. New Zealand timber is processed overseas, often using coal. If New Zealand were to convert timber domestically, using bioenergy or other renewable heat sources, the product would have a lower embodied energy use (using a higher percentage of renewables), while adding value to GDP. In sum New Zealand’s emissions are currently projected to rise but this is not compatible with global calls to reduce emissions. New Zealand should adopt an ambitious target for the Paris negotiations, such as -­‐40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. As this submission highlights, there is scope to meet this target. A combination of initiatives will be necessary to keep warming below 2 degrees C so that the severe impacts of climate change can be averted. Wokje Abrahamse
Lecturer, Environmental Studies, Victoria University of Wellington
School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences
PO Box 600; Wellington, 6012; 04 4635217; [email protected]
7 http://www.economist.com/node/18989175 8 Mundaca, L., & Richter, J. L. (2013). Challenges for New Zealand's carbon market. Nature Climate Change, 3(12), 1006-­‐1008. 9
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/business/global/new-zealands-green-tourism-push-clashes-withrealities.html?smid=fb-share&_r=1
10
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/06/us-newzealand-milk-image-idUSBRE97503H20130806
11
http://www.oanz.org/casestudies/OANZ-full%20report%202012.pdf
12
Mason IG, Page SC, Williamson AG. A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand
utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources. Energy Policy, 2010, 38: 3973-3984.