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Enrique Ortega and Ari Costa Laboratory of Ecological Engineering Food Engineering School State University of Campinas S X 6 5 Degrees to Hell … 4 3 2 1 or Four Years to a Prosperous Future http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/index.htm National Academy of Sciences first report on Climate Change Deadline of first Kyoto Protocol Is Global Cooling due to a Waning Sun a possibility? What could be nice to happen in 2012? Threshold date for high risk climate change In 1712 Thomas Newcome invented the water steam pump that used coal as fuel This date is considered as the birth of industrial capitalism Maya Calendar special year 1712 – 2012 Industrial Capitalism based on Greed, Perpetual Growth, Oppression and Untruth. Victim of its Own Pollution and Climate Chaos. Then the humanity could live with: Harmony, responsibility, renewable consumption, healthy relationship with nature But in a hotter or a cooler planet! Progress of Science To the Infinite Universe "What course after nightfall? Has destiny written that we must run to the end?“ Systems science committed with truth Greek Lyric Poet Pindar (c. 522-438 BCE) in Eiseley, 1970 Mathematics Astronomy Galileo Einstein Newton Kepler Modern Culture Ptolomaeus From a closed World Religion Early Science Myths Industrial Revolution Enlightenment Middle Age America Islam China Byzantium Rome India Greece Egypt Fertile Crescent Capitalism (Utilitarian Science) The Science Progress Path Mathematics Astronomy Ancient Science Archeology Physics Chemistry Biology Scientific Revolution XVII Century The Infinitely Big The Infinitely Small The Infinitely Complex The Past and future of Mankind Geology Climatology Modern Science Ecology History Paleoclimatology Systems Theory Systems Dynamics Complex Systems Open Systems Models of the World Critics to the World System The Expansion of Capitalism How its Mental Model works ? From radical Individualism to Extreme Greed Violent Oppression Ignorance promotion World destruction And finally Global Collapse Pyramid of the Present Capitalism Central Nation Governo Government Links of Ideology groups and Multinational Companies are very strong Ideology And Culture Military Forces Energy and raw-materials Multinational Companies $ Small Companies Middle Class Workers Farmers Unemployed People Peripheral Countries Basic assumptions of capitalist model are the following: The growth of Gross National Product (GNP) maximizes human welfare Enterprises and Free Market Forces allocate People and Resources for their better and Superior Use Economic Growth is the main priority to maintain Profits Environmental resources are limitless and absorb all the industrial impacts The problems cannot be solved within the boundaries of the Mentality that generated them Albert Einstein The solution demands an ethical and esthetical open systems approach: Multi-guided self-organization Overcoming the Capitalism mental model Economic expansion aiming fast and high profits destroys Sustainable Systems all over the World. Competitive advantage and scale economy are only possible because the damages (loss of environmental services and negative externalities) are not subject to penalties. The Criteria “GNP Growth” leads to the destruction of the Biosphere Environmental Assets and brings risks to Mankind Future. Presently, Amazon in Brazil is being destroyed by Capitalism. Market Economy generates Exodus to Slums and, at the same time, promotes Not Sustainable Consumption by the rich ones. There are no substitutes for extinct species, including human beings. Is Ripening a granted stage in an Industrial Revolution? Or is a Revolution necessary for Sustainability and Human Life Preservation? On what basis? H2O CH4 CO2 NOx SOx Eruptions CO2, CH4, N, S heat were removed during 500 millions of years CO2 Organic matter Terrestrial surface (fotosyntesis) O2 Consumers (fauna) Frozen surfaces CO2 CH4 Sun C N Fossil energy resources Organic matter Consumers Oceans and water bodies Calcium carbonates (reefs) Rain Heat Methane hydrate S H2O CH4 CO2 NOx SOx Eruptions heat The sequestered C is put back into the air in about 200 years CO2 Organic matter Industrial human beings O2 Consumers (fauna) Terrestrial surface (fotosyntesis) Frozen surfaces Sun CO2 CH4 S N C Fossil energy resources Organic matter Consumers Oceans and water bodies Atmosphere composition reversion in a very short time Calcium carbonates (reefs) Rain Heat Increased retention Methane hydrate CO2 and other GHG in the atmosphere Industrial Revolution: Since 1712 burning fossil fuels 25,000 35 Gross World Product 30 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 20,000 25 15,000 20 15 10,000 10 5,000 5 0 0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Data Source: Adapted from Environment Canada Indicators Website 90 95 2000 GWP 1995 (US$ Trillions) CO2 Emissions (Megatonnes) Co-products: CO2, CH4, N2O During industrialization the population grew as fast as the CO2 output …… but science shows that there are limits for both! Oil Population and CO2 Concentration 1100 Years 1000 9 billion, 2050 8 800 6.5 billion, 2007 6 600 Multinational Corporations 4 2 Information Age Chemical farming Industrial Revolution Enlightenment 1000 1500 400 200 0 1900 2000 2100 CO2 Concentration in ppm World Population in Billions 10 CO2 What and Who makes the Weather? Lessons from the Past Vostok Ice Core Data There is indeed a correlation between CO2 and temperature! Carbon Dioxide (parts per million) National Geophysical Data Center 300 280 280 240 220 200 180 Temperature (ºC +/- Normal) 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Years Before Present (x 1000) 0 Indicators of the Human Influence on the Atmosphere During the Industrial Era Radioative Forcing (Wm-2) CO2 (ppm) Carbon Dioxide Concentration 380 0.15 Nitrous Oxide Concentration 1.5 310 380 Radioative Forcing (Wm-2) N2O (ppb) 0.10 1.0 360 290 0.05 0.5 300 280 0.0 0.00 270 260 250 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 Methane Concentration 1750 0.50 1500 50 0.25 1000 750 2000 Sulfate Aerosols Deposited in Greenland Ice 200 1250 1800 Sulfur mg SO4 per 1000g of Ice Radioative Forcing (Wm2) CH4 (ppb) 1600 SO2 Emissions from United States and Europe 100 25 0.00 0 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0 1400 1600 1800 Climate Change is Linked to Industrialization 2000 Industrial Revolution Outputs Greenhouse Gas chemical formula Pre-industrial concentration Present concentration (% increase) Carbon Dioxide 278 ppm 377.3 (40%) Fossil Fuel Combustion Land Use Change Cement Production Methane 700 ppb 1737 (250%) Fossil Fuels Rice Paddies Waste Dumps Nitrous Oxide 275 ppb + 811 ppb (200%) CO2 CH4 N2O Besides these, there are other GHG substances Sources Fertilizer Industrial Processes Fossil Fuel Combustion Change in Temperature (ºC) Lessons from the Past Holocene Maximum 2 0 Little Ice Age -2 -4 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Thousands of Years Before Present What and Who makes the Weather? Lessons from the Past • Tectonic Causes – Landmass Distribution • Continental Drifts – Undersea Ridges Activity • Sea Floor Spreading • Astronomical Causes – Elliptical Orbit of the Earth • 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes – Wobble in Earth’s Orbit • 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5% – Solar Energy Output • 100,000 Year Cycle • Atmospheric Causes Industrial civilization – Heat Retention • Greenhouse Effect – Solar Reflectivity What and Who makes • Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice Caps the Weather? Industrial human beings are making the Weather! 700 Projected (2100) Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the atmosphere is above the highest Level of the last 400,000 Years Civilization begun 7,000 – 10,000 years ago 650 600 550 500 450 400 Current (2001) 350 300 250 200 300,000 400,000 200,000 100,000 Today Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide Source: Co-operative Research Centre for Greenhouse Accounting, 2001 Lessons from the Past … and the Present !!! Years before the Present What were the CO2 values of the Past? What is it now? What could they be in the Future? Another supposition: cooling 700 Projected (2100) Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide 650 600 550 After fast Warming a fast Cooling? 500 450 400 Current (2001) 350 300 250 200 400,000 300,000 200,000 Years before the Present 100,000 Today +100,000 After Present IPCC Current Consensus The Present Impact Millions of Years Ago 600 100 0 200 400 2000 Extinction Rate 60 Anthropocene Extinction 40 1500 Cretaceous Extinctions 20 1000 500 AWL © 1999 Paleozoic Mesozoic Tertiary Cretaceous Jurassic Triassic Permian Carboniferous Devonian Silurian Ordovician Cambrian 0 Cenozoic ) 0 Precambrian Extinction Rate (% of Families that Died Out ( ) 80 Number of Families ( Number of Permian Extinctions Families 2500 The Future Impact Some of IPCC main findings Altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to increase. Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause huge impacts, during or after the 21st century. The Future Impact Some of IPCC main findings Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. Sustainable Development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but climate change could obstruct the nations’ capability to achieve sustainable development pathways. A little bit warmer ... or much warmer? If in the past 6°C of Cooling nearly wiped us away …..might 6oC of Warming have a similar effect? Millions of years before now 20 19 18 17 16 1x109 100x106 10x106 1x106 100x103 10x103 1 1x10 15 © 1999 Addison Wesly London, Inc. CENOZOIC 0 The Future as a process that can take us Back to the Past MEZOZOIC 1x102 65 PALEOZOIC 135 245 570 Millions of years before now 1x103 Temperature (ºC) 21 4,600 570 510 439 409 363 323290 245 208 146 65 56 Millions of years before now 35 23 5 PERIOD ERA CENOZOIC 2 0.01 0 280 ppmv EPOCH TERTIARY HOLOCENE (Eve) 2050 ppmv QUATERNARY > 5000 ppmv PLEISTCCENE PLIOCENE (Hominids) [CO2] = 340 ppmv MEZOZOIC MIOCENE OLIGOCENE EOCENE (Anthropoids) PALEOCENE CRETACEOUS JURASSIC [CO2] = 210 ppmv PALEOZOIC TRIASSIC PERMIAN CARBONIFEROUS [CO2] PENSILVANYAN PRECAMBRIAN DEVONIAN SILURIAN [CO2] = 350 ppmv > 2000 ppmv MISSISSIPIAN ORDOVICIAN CAMBRIAN Back to other eras! Geological Timescale and Carbon Dioxide Density TODAY 378 ppmv Is There a Climate Policy ? Temperature in Celsius Objective situation CO2 target 0.1 - 1.0ºC Avoidance is not possible anymore 350 ppm (*) 1.1 – 2.0ºC Global emission peak by 2015 400 ppm Threshold for Carbon-Cycle Feedback? 2.1 – 3.0ºC Global emission peak by 2030 450ppm Threshold for Siberian Methane Feedback 3.1 – 4.0ºC Global emission peak by 2050 550 ppm 4.1 – 5.0ºC Constantly rising emission allowed 650 ppm 5.1 – 6.0ºC Very high emissions allowed 800 ppm (*) Present level is 380 ppm Is There a Climate Policy ? Global Integration A1 storyline A2 storyline World: market Oriented Economy: fastest per capita growth Population: 2050 peak, then decline Governance: strong regional World: differentiated Economy: regionally oriented; B1 storyline B2 storyline World: convergent Economy: service and information World: local solutions Economy: intermediate growth Population: continuously increasing at interactions, income convergence Technology: three scenarios groups: •A1FI: fossil intensive •AIT: non-fossil energy sources •A1B: balanced across all sources based; lower growth than A1 Population: same as A1 Governance: global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability Technology: clean and resourceefficient lowest per capita growth Population: continuously increasing Governance: self-reliance with preservation of local identities Technology: slowest and more fragmented development lower rate than A2 Governance: local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity Technology: more rapid than A2; less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1 Environmental emphasis Source: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Regional emphasis Summary of IPCC scenarios Economic emphasis Global Temperature Increase (ºC) Future Around the Corner (IPCC graph) 5.8ºC 2012 6 Low Probability Least Likely 5 4 Mitigation to limit high damages 3 2 1.2ºC 1 0 Adaptation to Climate Changes 1990 2010 Adaptation 2030 2050 2070 2090 Mitigation Moderately Likely Extreme Outcomes Considerable Damage to Most Systems Increased Damage to Most Systems, Fewer “Positive” effects Almost Certain Damage to the most sensitive, Many “Positive” effects Happening Now Vulnerable to Current Climate Highly Likely Probability Consequence Time Horizon of Integrated Approaches Core Benefits of Adaptation and Mitigation Risk = Probability x Consequence Synthesis of Risk-Management Approaches to Global Warming Source: IPCC - TAR – Technical Assessment Report – February 2007 Water and ecosystems 0 1 2 4 3 5ºC Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes WATER 0.4 to 1.7 billion Additional people with increased water stress 1.0 to 2.0 billion 1.1 to 3.2 billion ECOSYSTEMS Increasing amphibian extinction Increased coral bleaching Major extinction around the globe About 20% to 30% species at increasingly high risk of extinction Most corals bleached Increasing species range shifts and wildlife risk Widespread coral mortality Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as: 15% to 40% of ecosystems affected Food and health 0 1 2 4 3 5ºC Low latitudes Decrease for some cereals FOOD Crop productivity is affected All cereals decrease Mid to high latitudes Increase for some cereals Decrease in some regions Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases HEALTH Increased damage from foods and storms Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services Coastal regions and singular events 0 1 2 3 4 5ºC Increased damage from floods and storms COSTAL REGIONS About 30% loss of coastal wetlands Additional people at risk of coastal flooding each year SINGULAR EVENTS Local retreat of ice in Greenland and West Antarctic 0 to 3 million 2 to 15 million Long term commitment to several meters of sea-level rise due to ice sheet loss Leading to reconfiguration of coastlines world wide and inundation of low-lying areas Ecosystems changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation The present condition imposes a different and urgent vision Guiding the Future Who are the scientists who can help us? IPCC (UN) Lynas Flannery International scientific community that studies systems sciences Forrester Pimentel Giampietro Odum Gunther Lovelock Cohen The Prosperous Way Down! Systems Principles Pulses and Cycles Climax Assets Producers Classic view for Sustainability, where growth is followed by a Steady State with high energy level. But after observing nature Odum Consumers proposed the Pulse Paradigm Stage 2 Growth Climax and Transition Time Assets There is in Nature a Cycle where Slow Restoration of Resources alternates with the Consumption Pulse (that builds up consumer assets) Stage 1 Stage 3 Growth Descent Assets Resources Stage 4 Low energy restoration Consumer Pulse Time Each Stage in the Cycle Has an Adequate Policy Stage 1 Growth Competition for resources Selection: Few prevail over competitors Fast growth for the whole system Each Stage in the Cycle Has an Adequate Policy Stage 2 Climax e Transition Resources are obtained from the whole system and used as soon as available System maturity with hierarchical organization Strong feedback of the anthropic production processes Artificial diversity and complexity increase Cooperation and not competition Information torment, but not all necessarily true Each Stage in the Cycle Stage 3 Has an Adequate Policy Descent Assets decrease Smaller available stocks, destruction surges by large scale pulses The descent can be smooth or catastrophic Low energy period: Diversity and information are stored in order to avoid critical losses Priority given to long term needs Performance maximization Each Stage in the Cycle Has an Adequate Policy Stage 4 Low-Energy Restoration Environmental production is bigger than consumption Net increase in reserves: population has to decrease Small scattered Sustainable Communities Minimum growth and limited consumption attitudes Primary use of renewable and slowly renewable resources At the end: recovery of the cultural belief about growth Learning about living with less energy in a smaller economy has already begun but there is no modern experience in Descent to be used as a guide Old Civilization Records Cyclic Systems Principles Analogy with Ecosystems Innovation for a postindustrial civilization Instead of Denying planning for a Better World where we use Less Is the Homo Sapiens able to change his culture? YES! Observed daily changes on behavior suggest that! A new position of Global Communication is necessary The reversion of the attitude must happen within one generation Decline is not just going back to the past It is necessary to avoid the low efficiency of trial and error methods Growth is good Decline is bad Negative Connotation Attitude Change must be stimulated through Education, Political Leadership, and Pioneering efforts Psycho-social capability for New ecological and social patterns adoption Changing the Social Paradigm! Shared knowledge about Decline Summary for an Orderly Descent 1. Make beneficial descent the collective purpose for this century. 2. Dedicate television drama, literature, and art to adventures about descent. 3. Accept a small annual decline in energy use. 4. Maintain a stable energy use per person by reducing populations in a humanitarian way. 5. Remove all incentives, dogma, and approval for excessive reproduction. 6. Reduce salaries and wages to maintain full employment. 7. Keep the energy/money ratio stable by adjusting the money in circulation. Summary for an Orderly Descent 8. Borrow less and reduce high profit expectations from stock markets. 9. Develop economic incentives for reducing consumption. 10. Develop public opinion, laws, and taxes to discourage unproductive resource use. 11. Sustain the production of the environment. 12. Consolidate knowledge for long-term preservation. 13. Prioritize the concepts of international respect and cooperation for global sharing. The transformation that is needed Central Nations Governo Governs Ideology and Culture Military forces Multinational enterprises Small business Medium Classes Workers Farmers Jobless people Peripheral Countries The transformation that is needed Sustainable countries Fair exchange based on sustainable emergy content of products Sustainable countries Thanks !!! [email protected] [email protected]