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Extreme weather: Climate change or climate variability? Dr. Nicholas Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science Walker Institute for Climate System Research © University of Reading 2012 www.reading.ac.uk Introduction and Outline • Review of the extreme weather events of 2010-11 • The Australian floods of summer 2010-11 • “Is it climate change?” • La Nina and tropical flooding • Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi • Drought in Southwest Australia • The Russian heatwave of summer 2010 • Conclusions – Should we blame ourselves? Extreme weather events in 2010-2011 Source: MODIS satellite image - December 2010: Central Queensland flooded - January 2011: Toowoomba and Brisbane flooded; also flooding in Sri Lanka, Philippines and Brazil - August 2010: Flooding in Pakistan - February 2011: Severe Cyclone Yasi strikes Queensland - Throughout 2010: Drought in Perth - July 2010: Heatwave in western and central Russia Source: telegraph.com.au Source: guardian.co.uk Source: U.S. Department ofResearch Defense Laboratory Source: NOAA Earth System Brief introduction to Australian climate • Australia’s coasts receive the vast majority of the rainfall. • About 70% of Australia receives less than 500 mm of rainfall per year (about half of SE England’s average rainfall). • The northern third of Australia receives nearly all of its rainfall in summer (December-February). • The southern third of Australia receives most of its rainfall in winter (June-August). Source: bigthink.com The Rockhampton Floods • The wettest December on record in Queensland; the second-wettest on record in Australia (since 1900). • Much of Queensland received more than twice its average rainfall. • The wet December followed the wettest spring on record in Australia. The Rockhampton Floods • Exceptionally heavy rain fell between Christmas and New Year’s Eve: • Rockhampton: 320 mm • Carnarvon: 265 mm on 27 December alone • Roughly five times the average rainfall for December • Daily rainfall records fell along the Carnarvon Hills to the west of Rockhampton • Thousands of square kilometres flooded. The Rockhampton Floods • The proximate cause of the heavy rainfall was the combination of • High pressure to the south, in the Tasman Sea • Low pressure to the north, along the Queensland coast • The combined circulation around these systems directed warm, moist ocean air onshore, which subsequently rose over the Carnarvon Hills, producing heavy rainfall The Brisbane Floods • Southeastern Queensland received heavy rain 6-12 January 2011 • Brisbane: 267 mm • Toowoomba: 345 mm • Flash flooding struck Toowoomba on 10 January • Similar onshore wind pattern to Rockhampton floods The Brisbane Floods 2011 • Brisbane City gauge reached a height of 4.46 metres, well below the record highest floods. • The Wivenhoe Dam was constructed in the wake of the 1974 floods (5.45 metres) to protect the city. • Preliminary results: Without the Wivenhoe Dam, the river level at the City gauge would have been 6.5 metres (Neville Nichols, Monash University) The cost of the Australian floods 15,000 homes destroyed 35 people killed Climate change and extremes • In the wake of the Queensland floods, many asked: “Is it climate change?” … or: “Would the Queensland floods have occurred if humans were not warming the climate through greenhouse-gas emissions?” • Climate change will affect the overall number and strength of extreme weather events. • Two slightly easier and much more useful questions: “Will floods in Queensland become more frequent?” “Will floods in Queensland become more intense?” Climate change and extreme rainfall • For the tropics as a whole, the frequency of extreme rainfall is expected to increase with warming temperatures. • Clausius-Clapeyron: the atmosphere has a greater capacity for water vapour at higher temperatures. • This does not mean that global warming will be every rainfall event stronger, or that total rainfall will increase everywhere. Changes in frequency of extreme rainfall in the tropics with warming ocean temperatures Figure from Allan et al. (2010, Env. Res. Lett.) Climate change and Queensland extreme rainfall • For Queensland, doubling CO2 in a climate model increases the frequency of 100 mm/day rainfall by 50%: • Present-day: 1 in 670 days • Double CO2: 1 in 402 days • Doubling CO2 also also increases the intensity of a 1-in-200 Frequency of different amounts of rainfall in Queensland day event by 20%: during summer, for present-day and 2xCO2 climates • Present-day: 54 mm • Double CO2: 65 mm Brief introduction to El Niño and La Niña • La Niña and El Niño are naturally occurring phenomena, in which ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific cool and warm, respectively. • Events often develop in June-September, peak in DecemberFebruary, then decay in March-May. • La Niña and El Niño are episodic (irregular). El Niño does not necessary follow La Niña; neutral conditions can prevail for years. • The strength and position of warm ocean temperatures shifts rainfall patterns around the world. Brief introduction to El Niño and La Niña El Niño La Niña Departures of ocean temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific from average conditions (Source: KNMI Climate Explorer from UK Met Office data) There are insufficient reliable data to determine whether El Niño and La Niña are changing with global warming. • On average, El Niño and La Niña are responsible for approximately 25% of the year-to-year variations in Queensland rainfall. • Strong La Niña events result in large floods in Queensland, but stronger El Niño events do not result in stronger droughts. Queensland annual (May-Apr) rain (mm) Historical relationships between La Niña and Australian rainfall Strong Weak Strong Weak La Niña La Niña Neutral El Niño El Niño 1974/75 2010/11 Nino-4 index (degrees Celsius) Historical relationships between La Niña and heavy rainfall • La Niña increases by 20-70% the risk of heavy rainfall in Queensland • El Niño reduces by 10-40% the risk of heavy rainfall in Queensland La Niña minus neutral years Difference in the number of 1-in-30 day rainfall events per season El Niño minus neutral years Climate change or natural variability? • Scientists expect warming temperatures to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, particularly in the tropics. Climate change More heavy rainfall Strong La Niña Heavier rainfall • There is a strong historical link between La Niña and strong monsoon seasons in Australia, including with the frequency of extreme rainfall. • There is no robust evidence that global warming has influenced the frequency or intensity of La Niña; the 2010-11 event was strong, but not outside the range of past events. Severe Cyclone Yasi Yasi was “Australia’s Katrina” The track of Severe Cyclone Yasi as it passed across northern Queensland Historical relationships between La Niña and tropical cyclones Observed tropical-cyclone tracks during the seven El Niño and La Niña events from 1979-2009. • Compared to El Niño, La Niña doubles the risk of a tropical cyclone striking eastern Australia (Callaghan and Power, 2010) • All years in which more than one tropical cyclone has struck eastern Australia have been La Niña years (Callaghan and Power, 2010). Climate change and tropical cyclones • In a warmer world, we expect to see fewer tropical cyclones. • The decrease may not be evenly spread across the globe; some regions may have more cyclones. • The intensity of tropical cyclones, particularly the strongest ones, is expected to increase. Temperature changes over 1979-1999 Estimates from three models of the change in the number of days with a tropical cyclone: 2081-2100 minus 1981-2000. From Thorne From Lavender et al. et al. (2010) (2011). Climate change or natural variability? • Climate change is expected to reduce the number, but increase the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change More tropical cyclones Strong La Niña Stronger tropical cyclones • La Niña increases the number of landfalling tropical cyclones in eastern Australia, but has no effect on their overall intensity. • Was Yasi “enhanced” by global warming? Would Yasi have even formed in a warmer world? In an El Niño year, would Yasi have simply have moved out to sea? The Southwest Australia Drought Source: Bureau of Meteorology Annual rainfall at Perth Airport, dating to 1945. The blue horizontal line is the median annual rainfall. Rainfall in Southwest Western Australia for January-October; the red bars are the five driest years; the black line is the 15-year moving average. The Southwest Australia Drought • Western Australia produces the most wheat of any state in Australia. • The 2010 drought likely reduced wheat yields by one-third, equivalent to nearly AU$1 billion (£650 million). • Heavy rains in the east of Australia in SeptemberNovember damaged wheat crops as they were being harvested. The Southwest Australia Drought Storage in gigalitres (one million kilolitres) Total water stored in Western Australia dams. Source: Western Australia Water Corporation Extraction during dry season Recharge during wet season Climate change and the Southern Annular Mode • Loss of ozone and increasing greenhouse gases have had the largest impact on the Southern Annular Mode to date. • The tension between the recovery of the ozone hole and increasing greenhouse gases is an open issue. Simulated changes in surface pressure associated with observed changes (1958-1999) in each driver. Figure from Arblaster et al. (2006). Impacts of CO2 doubling Summer Autumn Winter Spring Change in annual-total rainfall from HiGEM 2xCO2 minus HiGEM control Climate change or natural variability? • The ozone hole and greenhouse-gas emissions have each contributed to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode. • There is little evidence for natural, decadal variability in the Southern Annular Mode, but records are likely not long enough to robustly detect such variations. • Ozone loss and greenhouse-gas emissions are the most likely causes of the decline in rainfall in Southwest Australia. Greenhouse gas emissions Antarctic ozone hole Natural variations (solar, etc.) Drought in SW Australia ? The Russian Heatwave • Intense heat and drought throughout western Russia resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. • Highest temperature ever recorded in Russia: 44.0°C (111.2°F) • Grain harvest ruined, at a cost of $15 billion (£9.4 billion) in GDP • Russia banned grain exports, leading to further worldwide increases in grain prices. Departures of July 20102010 surface temperatures Departures of July precipitation from normal July conditions The Russian Heatwave Departures of July 2010 sea-level pressure values from normal conditions The heat and drought in Russia was associated with a strong blocking pattern in the atmosphere, with substantial meanders in the jet stream directing weather systems away from Russia. Climate change or natural variability? • Climate change is expected to considerably increase the risk of heatwaves in many parts of the world, including Europe and Russia. • The 2010 heatwave was likely the result of natural variations that were intensified by man-made climate change (Dole et al., 2011). Frequency of western Russia July temperature extremes, based on climate-change simulations from 22 climate models. Should we blame ourselves? • Humans are definitely warming the climate through emissions of greenhouse gases. • A warming climate is affecting and will affect weather patterns, especially the number and strength of extreme weather events. • The effects of climate change are being seen and will be seen in the overall behaviour of extreme events. • Natural variations, like La Niña, still have an important role in determining when and where extreme weather will occur. • For individual events, trying to separate natural variations from climate change is not easy and (in my opinion) not particularly useful for adapting to climate change. Shameless self-promotion • After the violent eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815, 1816 became known as “The Year Without a Summer”. • One of the four strongest volcanic eruptions of the last 10,000 years. A powerful example of natural climate change. • Covers the eruption, how the volcanic ash cloud affected global weather and climate, and the subsequent impacts on agriculture, migration and public health. • Published late February 2013, but available for pre-order on amazon.co.uk! For further information • E-mail: [email protected] • Web: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~ss901165 • Twitter: @nick_klingaman To find out more about Reading’s climate research: • Walker Institute: http://www.walker-institute.ac.uk • NCAS-Climate: http://climate.ncas.ac.uk More information on climate change research: • Royal Meteorological Society: http://www.rmets.org • Intergov. Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch