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Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations Bahrain, October 6-7, 2010 Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region Conclusions 2 Need for greater regional integration to meet energy needs- build infrastructure and create conditions to facilitate exchange Suitable polices and incentives to encourage efficient use of energy, including move towards cost reflective pricing Scale-up renewable energy to balance the fuel mix and create manufacturing opportunities Climate Challenges in MENA 3 Impacts of Climate Change Contributions to Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Climate Change …building resilience and reducing emissions… Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank Impacts of Climate Change 4 The IPCC predicts (95% certainty): Global models predict sea levels rising from: 2 degree C increase by 2050 0.1 to 0.3 meters by 2050 4 degree C increase by 2100 0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100 Changes in precipitation patterns Stronger winds (more sand storms) Combined effects of temperature increase and precipitation variability will increase the occurrence of droughts Maghreb: Droughts have increased from 1 event every 10 years in early 20th century to 5-6 events every 10 years today Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions 1.0 meter sea level rise would affect: 3.2% of MENA’s population 1.5% of the regional GDP 3.3% of wetlands Egypt: A 1.0 meter sea level rise in the Nile Delta would affect 10% of the population, and 13% of Egypt’s agriculture Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank Vulnerabilities to Climate Change 5 Water: Up to 100 million people could be water stressed by 2050: Water scarcity is the highest in the world with 75% of renewable water resources withdrawn annually Agriculture: Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture Urban: A 1-3% temperature rise could expose up to 25 million urban dwellers to flooding because of high concentration of population and economic activity in flood-prone urban coastal zones Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Health: Climate change can cause a sharp increase in the prevalence of poverty-driven endemic diseases – malnutrition, water and vector born diseases Gender: Women and girls are at increased risk. Traditional gender roles means that climate change impacts men and women differently Conflict: In conflict-ridden areas, violence and political turmoil could escalate over resource scarcity ; e.g. water: Nile Delta, Tigris and Euphrates. Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank Contributions to Climate Change 6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in MENA Region: • GHG in MENA countries are high in per capita terms (60% higher than the average among developing countries) 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Share of global emissions (a) Emissions per capita (b) Emissions per unit of income (b) Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions • However, in absolute terms the region is a relatively small carbon emitter, accounting for some 5-6% of global emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank % change in energy intensity 1990-2005 -10% -40% -50% -60% World United States Middle income India Europe & Central Asia 0% MENA Latin America & Caribbean -30% East Asia & Pacific -20% China Region Characterized by Increasing Energy Intensity Energy intensity change 2005/1990 20% 10% Reducing Emissions 8 Mitigating climate change by reducing emissions will require increased investments in renewable energy sources and a commitment to lowcarbon growth. Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Reducing Emissions Energy • Urban Development • Transport • Agriculture / Forestry • Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank Reducing Emissions: Energy 9 GHG Emission Barriers Strategic Response • 85% of regional GHG emissions come from energy production, transformation and use • Predominance of oil in the fuel mix Promote efficient and sustainable use of energy resources, e.g.: • High rates of energy subsidization distorts prices • Introduce price incentives, and develop appropriate finance mechanisms • Limited development of renewable sources • Establish energy services companies • Emissions are concentrated in the oil producing countries • Inefficient pattern of energy use • Continued high and volatile fuel prices strain finances of net importing countries Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions • Promote energy efficient equipment • Reduce gas flaring, leakage and fugitive emissions Develop renewable energy sources: • cost reflective energy pricing • Suitable policy and regulatory framework • Scale-up investments to achieve economies of scale and reduce manufacturing costs • Awareness raising Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank Areas Suitable for Solar Energy Development Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Worth considering for CSP CSP Scale-up in MENA: Global impacts MENA and South Western USA/Mexico offer best physical resources and market access Economies of scale best achieved there, driving cost reduction in the global CSP market So major contribution to climate change mitigation Major potential for concessional climate financing from UNFCCC/Copenhagen Accord Why solar energy is important for MENA? Oil and gas producers: frees up oil and gas for higher value-added uses/exports Oil and gas importers: energy security Industrial diversification and job creation Entry into global industry starting to take off High demand growth for electricity, including for desalination Export revenue from high-paying green electricity markets in Europe MENA CSP Investment Plan US$ 5.6 Billion MENA CSP Investment Plan endorsed by CTF December 2009 US$ 4 Billion for 1 GW generation, US$ 1.6 Billion for transmission Financing from private and public funds, concessional and non-concessional Modest CDM revenues expected (~ 1 US ¢ /kWh) CTF contribution US$ 750 Million Additional US$ 1.4 Billion of concessional funding is required Projects create transmission corridors for subregional exports (Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC) 1 1 Tunisia-Italy HVDC 2 2 Jordanian Medring 15 THANK YOU [email protected]