Download Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions

Arab Climate
Resilience Initiative
Consultations
Bahrain, October 6-7,
2010
Chandrasekar Govindarajalu,
World Bank
Middle East and North Africa Region
Conclusions
2
Need for greater regional integration to meet
energy needs- build infrastructure and create
conditions to facilitate exchange
 Suitable polices and incentives to encourage
efficient use of energy, including move towards
cost reflective pricing
 Scale-up renewable energy to balance the
fuel mix and create manufacturing
opportunities
Climate Challenges in MENA
3
Impacts of
Climate
Change
Contributions
to Climate
Change
Vulnerabilities
to Climate
Change
…building resilience and reducing emissions…
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions
Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
Impacts of Climate Change
4
 The IPCC predicts (95%
certainty):
 Global models predict sea levels
rising from:

2 degree C increase by 2050

0.1 to 0.3 meters by 2050

4 degree C increase by 2100

0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100

Changes in precipitation patterns

Stronger winds (more sand storms)
 Combined effects of temperature
increase and precipitation
variability will increase the
occurrence of droughts

Maghreb: Droughts have increased
from 1 event every 10 years in early 20th
century to 5-6 events every 10 years
today
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions
 1.0 meter sea level rise would
affect:

3.2% of MENA’s population

1.5% of the regional GDP

3.3% of wetlands

Egypt: A 1.0 meter sea level rise in the
Nile Delta would affect 10% of the
population, and 13% of Egypt’s
agriculture
Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
5



Water: Up to 100 million people could
be water stressed by 2050: Water scarcity
is the highest in the world with 75% of
renewable water resources withdrawn
annually
Agriculture: Agricultural output could
decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to
dependence on climate-sensitive
agriculture
Urban: A 1-3% temperature rise could
expose up to 25 million urban dwellers to
flooding because of high concentration of
population and economic activity in
flood-prone urban coastal zones
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions

Health: Climate change can cause a
sharp increase in the prevalence of
poverty-driven endemic diseases –
malnutrition, water and vector born
diseases

Gender: Women and girls are at
increased risk. Traditional gender roles
means that climate change impacts men
and women differently

Conflict: In conflict-ridden areas,
violence and political turmoil could
escalate over resource scarcity ; e.g.
water: Nile Delta, Tigris and Euphrates.
Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
Contributions to Climate Change
6
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in MENA Region:
• GHG in MENA
countries are high in
per capita terms (60%
higher than the average
among developing
countries)
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Share of global
emissions (a)
Emissions per capita (b) Emissions per unit of
income (b)
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions
• However, in absolute
terms the region is a
relatively small carbon
emitter, accounting for
some 5-6% of global
emissions
Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
% change in energy intensity
1990-2005
-10%
-40%
-50%
-60%
World
United
States
Middle
income
India
Europe &
Central
Asia
0%
MENA
Latin
America &
Caribbean
-30%
East Asia
& Pacific
-20%
China
Region Characterized by
Increasing Energy Intensity
Energy intensity change 2005/1990
20%
10%
Reducing Emissions
8
Mitigating climate
change by reducing
emissions will
require increased
investments in
renewable energy
sources and a
commitment to lowcarbon growth.
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions
Reducing
Emissions
Energy •
Urban Development •
Transport •
Agriculture / Forestry •
Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
Reducing Emissions: Energy
9
GHG Emission
Barriers
Strategic Response
• 85% of regional
GHG emissions
come from energy
production,
transformation and
use
• Predominance of
oil in the fuel mix
Promote efficient and sustainable use of
energy resources, e.g.:
• High rates of
energy subsidization
distorts prices
• Introduce price incentives, and develop appropriate
finance mechanisms
• Limited
development of
renewable sources
• Establish energy services companies
• Emissions are
concentrated in the
oil producing
countries
• Inefficient pattern
of energy use
• Continued high
and volatile fuel
prices strain
finances of net
importing countries
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions
• Promote energy efficient equipment
• Reduce gas flaring, leakage and fugitive emissions
Develop renewable energy sources:
• cost reflective energy pricing
• Suitable policy and regulatory framework
• Scale-up investments to achieve economies of scale
and reduce manufacturing costs
• Awareness raising
Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
Areas Suitable for Solar Energy
Development
Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Worth considering for CSP
CSP Scale-up in MENA: Global impacts
 MENA and South Western USA/Mexico offer
best physical resources and market access
 Economies of scale best achieved there,
driving cost reduction in the global CSP
market
 So major contribution to climate change
mitigation
 Major potential for concessional climate
financing from UNFCCC/Copenhagen Accord
Why solar energy is important for
MENA?
 Oil and gas producers: frees up oil and gas
for higher value-added uses/exports
 Oil and gas importers: energy security
 Industrial diversification and job creation
 Entry into global industry starting to take off
 High demand growth for electricity, including
for desalination
 Export revenue from high-paying green
electricity markets in Europe
MENA CSP Investment Plan
 US$ 5.6 Billion MENA CSP Investment Plan
endorsed by CTF December 2009
 US$ 4 Billion for 1 GW generation, US$ 1.6 Billion
for transmission
 Financing from private and public funds,
concessional and non-concessional
 Modest CDM revenues expected (~ 1 US ¢ /kWh)
 CTF contribution US$ 750 Million
 Additional US$ 1.4 Billion of concessional
funding is required
Projects create transmission corridors for
subregional exports (Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC)
1
1
Tunisia-Italy
HVDC
2
2
Jordanian
Medring
15
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